2019 Portuguese legislative election

The Portuguese legislative election of 2019 was held on 6 October 2019.[2] All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic were at stake.

2019 Portuguese legislative election

6 October 2019

230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic
116 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered10,777,258 11.3%[1]
Turnout5,237,484 (48.6%)
7.3 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader António Costa Rui Rio Catarina Martins
Party PS PSD BE
Leader since 28 September 2014 18 February 2018 30 November 2014
Leader's seat Lisbon Porto Porto
Last election 86 seats, 32.3% 89 seats[lower-alpha 1] 19 seats, 10.2%
Seats won 108 79 19
Seat change 22 10 0
Popular vote 1,903,687 1,454,283 498,549
Percentage 36.4% 27.8% 9.5%
Swing 4.0 pp N/A 0.7 pp

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Jerónimo de Sousa Assunção Cristas André Silva
Party PCP CDS–PP PAN
Alliance CDU
Leader since 27 November 2004 13 March 2016 26 October 2014
Leader's seat Lisbon Lisbon Lisbon
Last election 17 seats, 8.3%[lower-alpha 2] 18 seats[lower-alpha 1] 1 seats, 1.4%
Seats won 12 5 4
Seat change 5 13 3
Popular vote 332,018 221,094 173,931
Percentage 6.3% 4.2% 3.3%
Swing 1.9 pp N/A 1.9 pp

  Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party
 
Leader André Ventura Carlos Guimarães Pinto Collective leadership
Party CH IL LIVRE
Leader since 9 April 2019 13 October 2018 11 August 2019
Leader's seat Lisbon Porto (Lost) -
Last election Did not contest Did not contest 0 seats, 0.7%
Seats won 1 1 1
Seat change 1 1 1
Popular vote 67,502 67,443 56,940
Percentage 1.3% 1.3% 1.1%
Swing New party New party 0.37 pp

Party winning a plurality in each electoral district.

Prime Minister before election

António Costa
PS

Elected Prime Minister

António Costa
PS

In a campaign dominated by the Tancos airbase robbery[3], in which former Defense Minister Azeredo Lopes (2015-2018) was accused of trying to cover-up the finding of the stolen weapons in the robbery, but also with the good economic situation Portugal was living, the Socialist Party (PS) won the elections with 36% of the vote and 108 seats, a gain of 22 compared with 2015. The PS won the big districts of Porto and Lisbon, although Porto was closer than expected, and was able to gain districts from the PSD, like Aveiro and Viana do Castelo, however, by razor thin margins.[4] The PS won Lisbon city, however with a smaller share of the vote compared with 2015, 33% vs 35%, and, surprisingly, lost Porto city to the PSD.

The Social Democratic Party (PSD) got 28% of the votes and won 79 seats. The party lost 10 seats compared with 2015, and, in terms of share of vote, it was the worst result since 1983, however in terms of seats, it was only the worst result since 2005, when the party won 75 seats. The PSD was able to hold on to their bastions of Viseu, Vila Real, Bragança, Leiria and Madeira. On election night, PSD leader Rui Rio classified the results as "not a disaster" and left the door open to continue as party leader.[5] However, in the aftermath of the election, several members of the party announced their intention to challenge Rio's leadership.[6]

The Left Bloc (BE) achieved a similar result to 2015. The party won almost 10% of the votes and held the 19 seats elected in 2015. On election night, Catarina Martins said she was open to new negotiations with PS. The Unitary Democratic Coalition, (CDU), PCP-PEV coalition, suffered heavy losses, with 6.3% of the votes and 12 seats, and Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP secretary-general, said on election night that written agreements with PS were off the table. CDS – People's Party got just 4.2% of the votes, and got a parliamentary caucus reduced to just 5 seats, the lowest since 1991 and when the party was called the "taxi party", down from 18 in the 2015 election. Assunção Cristas, CDS leader, resigned on election night, called for a snap party congress and announced she would not run for reelection.[7] People-Animals-Nature (PAN) saw a big increase in its share of the vote, winning 3.3% and 4 seats from Lisbon, Porto and Setúbal.

This election was marked by the entry of three new parties in Parliament. The right-wing/far-right party CHEGA (CH) was one of the big surprises on election night by electing an MP from Lisbon. It is the first time in Portuguese democracy that a right-wing/far-right party is represented in Parliament.[8][9] LIVRE and Liberal Initiative also elected one MP for Lisbon. Former Prime Minister and PSD leader Pedro Santana Lopes' new party, Alliance, failed to win a single seat and polled below 1% of the votes.

The turnout in this election was the lowest ever in a general election in Portugal, with just 48.6% of registered voters casting a ballot. In Portugal alone, 54.5% of voters cast a ballot, a drop compared with the 57% in the 2015 election.

Background

Politics of Portugal

The President of Portugal has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by their own will. Unlike in other countries, the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President must appoint a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the government programme must be subject to discussion by the Assembly of the Republic, whose members of parliament may present a motion to reject the upcoming government.

PSD leadership election 2018

After a disappointing result in the 2017 local elections, in which the PSD won just 30% of the votes and 98 mayoral races against the 38% of the PS and its 160 elected mayors, Pedro Passos Coelho announced he would not run for a 5th term as PSD leader.[10] After that, Rui Rio, former mayor of Porto (2002-2013), announced he was running for the leadership.[11] Shortly after, Pedro Santana Lopes, former mayor of Lisbon (2002-2004; 2005) and Prime Minister (2004-2005), announced he was also running for the leadership of the party.[12] Election day was scheduled to January 13, 2018. After a long campaign, Rui Rio was elected with 54.15% of the votes, against the 45.85% of Santana Lopes. Turnout was 60.3%.[13] Rui Rio was officially confirmed as party leader in the PSD congress, in Lisbon, between 16 and 18 February 2018.

Date

Ballot paper for the Portuguese legislative election 2019

According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election.[14] If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least in 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 13 October 2019.[15] After meeting with all parties, in December 2018, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced that he would call a general election for 6 October 2019.

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[16]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[17] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[18]

For these elections, and compared with the 2015 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[19]

DistrictNumber of MPsMap
Lisbon48 (+1)
Porto40 (+1)
Braga19
Setúbal18
Aveiro16
Leiria10
Coimbra, Faro and Santarém9
Viseu8 (-1)
Madeira and Viana do Castelo6
Azores and Vila Real5
Castelo Branco4
Beja, Bragança, Évora and Guarda*3 (-1)
Portalegre, Europe and Outside Europe2
*Guarda district lost one seat compared with 2015.

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the Assembly of the Republic.

Name Ideology Political position Leader 2015 result Seats
before election
Votes (%) Seats
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata
Liberal conservatism
Classical liberalism
Centre[20]
to centre-right
Rui Rio 38.6%
[lower-alpha 1]
89 / 230
89 / 230
CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular
Christian democracy
Conservatism
Centre-right to right-wing Assunção Cristas
18 / 230
18 / 230
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista
Social democracy Centre-left António Costa 32.3%
86 / 230
85 / 230
BE Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda
Democratic socialism
Anti-capitalism
Left-wing Catarina Martins 10.2%
19 / 230
19 / 230
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português
Communism
Marxism–Leninism
Far-left Jerónimo de Sousa 8.3%
[lower-alpha 2]
15 / 230
15 / 230
PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"
Eco-socialism
Green politics
Left-wing Heloísa Apolónia
2 / 230
2 / 230
PAN People-Animals-Nature
Pessoas-Animais-Natureza
Animal welfare
Environmentalism
Centre-left André Lourenço e Silva 1.4%
1 / 230
1 / 230
Ind. Independent
Independente
Paulo Trigo Pereira (left the PS caucus)[21] N/A
1 / 230

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PSD « Portugal Precisa » "Portugal Needs" [22]
PS « Portugal Melhor » "Better Portugal" [23]
BE « Faz Acontecer » "Make it happen" [24]
CDS–PP « Faz sentido » "Makes sense" [25]
CDU « Avançar é Preciso » "Moving forward is necessary" [26]
PAN « Ainda vamos a tempo! » "We are still on time!" [27]
L « Livre é igualdade » "Free is equality" [28]
IL « Liberta-te do Socialismo » "Free yourself from Socialism" [29]
CH « A força da mudança » "The force of change" [30]

Candidates' debates

2019 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-inviteee 
PS
Costa
PSD
Rio
BE
Martins
CDU
Jerónimo
CDS–PP
Cristas
PAN
Silva
Refs
2 Sep SIC Clara de Sousa P N N P N N [31]
3 Sep RTP3 António José Teixeira N N P N P N [31]
5 Sep SIC Clara de Sousa N P N N P N [31]
6 Sep RTP1 António José Teixeira P N P N N N [31]
7 Sep SIC Notícias Clara de Sousa N N P N N P [31]
9 Sep RTP1 António José Teixeira N P N N N P [31]
11 Sep SIC Clara de Sousa P N N N N P [31]
12 Sep RTP1 António José Teixeira N P N P N N [31]
13 Sep TVI Pedro Pinto P N N N P N [31]
14 Sep RTP3 António José Teixeira N N N N P P [31]
15 Sep TVI Pedro Pinto N P P N N N [31]
16 Sep RTP1,
SIC,
TVI
Clara de Sousa
Maria Flor Pedroso
José Alberto Carvalho
P P N N N N [31]
18 Sep Antena 1,
RR,
TSF
Natália Carvalho
Eunice Lourenço
Anselmo Crespo
P P P P P P [31]
23 Sep Antena 1,
RR,
TSF
Natália Carvalho
Eunice Lourenço
Anselmo Crespo
P P N N N N [31]
23 Sep RTP1 Maria Flor Pedroso P P P P P P [31]
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate
Date Organisers Polling firm/Link
PS PSD BE CDU CDS–PP PAN Notes
23 Sep Antena 1, RR, TSF Aximage 37.9 38.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 21.4% Both/Neither
23 Sep RTP1 Aximage 30.9 31.2 18.9 1.5 7.1 2.9 7.5% No one

Opinion polling

Graph showing a 30-day average trendline of Portuguese opinion polls from the election in 2015 to the election in 2019. Each line corresponds to a political party.

Results

The centre-left Socialist Party (PS) of incumbent Prime Minister Costa obtained the largest share of the vote, and the most seats. Costa said he would look to continue the confidence-and-supply agreement with the Left Bloc and the Unitary Democratic Coalition. The centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) got 27.8 percent of the vote, its worst result since 1983. Portugal's much-vaunted immunity to Europe's far-right wave was interrupted by the election of a debut representative from the nationalist CHEGA party, which scored 1.3 percent overall, with the party's leader stating “this is an historic occasion, it will be the first time in 45 years that a party with these characteristics enters the assembly.”[32]

National summary

Summary of the 6 October 2019 Assembly of the Republic elections results
Parties Votes % ±pp swing MPs MPs %/
votes %
2015 2019 ± % ±
Socialist 1,903,68736.354.0861082246.969.61.29
Social Democratic 1,454,28327.77[lower-alpha 1]89791034.354.31.24
Left Bloc 498,5499.520.7191908.260.00.87
Unitary Democratic Coalition 332,0186.341.9171255.222.20.82
People's 221,0944.22[lower-alpha 1]185132.175.60.51
People–Animals–Nature 173,9313.321.91431.741.30.52
CHEGA 67,5021.29N/AN/A1N/A0.43N/A0.33
Liberal Initiative 67,4431.29N/AN/A1N/A0.43N/A0.33
LIVRE 56,9401.090.40110.430.40.39
Alliance 40,1750.77N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Portuguese Workers' Communist 36,0060.690.40000.000.00.0
React, Include, Recycle 35,1690.67N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
National Renovator 16,9920.320.20000.000.00.0
Earth 12,8880.250.20000.000.00.0
We, the Citizens! 12,3460.240.20000.000.00.0
Democratic Republican 11,6740.220.90000.000.00.0
United Party of Retirees and Pensioners 11,4570.220.10000.000.00.0
Together for the People 10,5520.200.10000.000.00.0
People's Monarchist 8,3890.160.10000.000.00.0
Labour 8,2710.16[lower-alpha 3]0000.000.00.0
Socialist Alternative Movement 3,2430.06[lower-alpha 3]0000.000.00.0
Total valid 4,982,609 95.14 1.1 230 230 0 100.00 0
Blank ballots 131,3022.510.4
Invalid ballots 123,5732.360.7
Total 5,237,484 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 10,777,25848.607.3
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PS
36.35%
PSD
27.77%
BE
9.52%
CDU
6.34%
CDS-PP
4.22%
PAN
3.32%
CH
1.29%
IL
1.29%
L
1.09%
Alliance
0.77%
PCTP/MRPP
0.69%
RIR
0.67%
Others
1.83%
Blank/Invalid
4.87%
Parliamentary seats
PS
46.96%
PSD
34.35%
BE
8.26%
CDU
5.22%
CDS-PP
2.17%
PAN
1.74%
CH
0.43%
IL
0.43%
L
0.43%

Distribution by constituency

 Results of the 2019 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency
Constituency%S%S%S%S%S%S%S%S%S Total
S
PS PSD BE CDU CDS–PP PAN CH IL L
Azores 40.1 3 30.2 2 8.0 - 2.5 - 4.8 - 2.7 - 0.9 - 0.7 - 0.9 - 5
Aveiro 34.3 7 33.6 6 10.0 2 3.1 - 5.7 1 3.0 - 0.7 - 1.0 - 0.7 - 16
Beja 40.7 2 13.3 - 9.1 - 22.8 1 2.3 - 2.0 - 2.0 - 0.4 - 0.6 - 3
Braga 36.4 8 34.1 8 8.9 2 4.0 - 4.1 1 2.6 - 0.7 - 0.8 - 0.7 - 19
Bragança 36.5 1 40.8 2 6.0 - 2.1 - 4.5 - 1.3 - 0.8 - 0.4 - 0.3 - 3
Castelo Branco 40.9 3 26.3 1 11.1 - 4.8 - 3.7 - 2.4 - 1.3 - 0.6 - 0.9 - 4
Coimbra 39.0 5 26.6 3 11.2 1 5.6 - 3.5 - 2.6 - 0.9 - 0.8 - 0.9 - 9
EvoraÉvora 38.3 2 17.5 - 9.0 - 18.9 1 3.4 - 2.0 - 2.2 - 0.7 - 0.7 - 3
Faro 36.8 5 22.3 3 12.3 1 7.1 - 3.8 - 4.8 - 2.1 - 0.8 - 1.0 - 9
Guarda 37.6 2 34.3 1 7.8 - 3.0 - 5.0 - 1.6 - 1.5 - 0.6 - 0.5 - 3
Leiria 31.1 4 33.5 5 9.4 1 4.3 - 5.3 - 2.9 - 1.5 - 0.9 - 0.9 - 10
Lisbon 36.7 20 22.6 12 9.7 5 7.8 4 4.4 2 4.4 2 2.0 1 2.5 1 2.1 1 48
Madeira 33.4 3 37.1 3 5.2 - 2.1 - 6.1 - 1.8 - 0.7 - 0.7 - 0.4 - 6
Portalegre 44.7 2 20.1 - 10.5 - 8.1 - 3.8 - 1.7 - 2.7 - 0.5 - 0.6 - 2
Porto 36.7 17 31.2 15 10.1 4 4.8 2 3.3 1 3.5 1 0.6 - 1.5 - 1.0 - 40
Santarém 37.1 4 25.2 3 10.2 1 7.6 1 4.7 - 2.6 - 2.0 - 0.8 - 0.9 - 9
Setúbal 38.6 9 14.4 3 12.1 2 15.8 3 3.0 - 4.4 1 1.9 - 1.1 - 1.2 - 18
Viana do Castelo 34.8 3 33.8 3 8.5 - 4.0 - 6.2 - 2.4 - 0.7 - 0.6 - 0.6 - 6
Vila Real 37.2 2 39.0 3 6.1 - 2.5 - 4.5 - 1.7 - 0.8 - 0.4 - 0.6 - 5
Viseu 35.4 4 36.2 4 7.9 - 2.3 - 5.9 - 2.1 - 1.0 - 0.6 - 0.5 - 8
Europe 29.1 1 18.8 1 5.7 - 2.5 - 3.0 - 4.9 - 0.9 - 0.8 - 1.1 - 2
Rest of the World 20.2 1 33.4 1 3.5 - 1.0 - 4.7 - 4.3 - 0.9 - 2.5 - 0.7 - 2
Total 36.4 108 27.8 79 9.5 19 6.3 12 4.2 5 3.3 4 1.3 1 1.3 1 1.1 1 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

Electorate

Demographic Size PS PSD BE CDU CDS–PP PAN Others
Total vote 100% 36% 28% 10% 6% 4% 3% 13%
Sex
Men 37% 28% 9% 7% 4% 2% 13%
Women 41% 24% 11% 5% 4% 4% 11%
Age
18–24 years old 10% 25% 30% 13% 3% 4% 9% 18%
25–44 years old 31% 32% 23% 14% 6% 3% 4% 19%
45–64 years old 38% 42% 27% 10% 6% 5% 2% 9%
65 and older 22% 51% 28% 4% 6% 3% 1% 7%
Education
No High-school 52% 23% 7% 7% 3% 1% 9%
High-school 32% 25% 13% 6% 4% 6% 15%
College graduate 31% 30% 12% 5% 6% 3% 13%
Vote decision
In the last week or before 19% 25% 26% 13% 4% 4% 3% 25%
Before that 81% 42% 26% 9% 6% 4% 3% 9%
Direction of the country
Right direction 67% 53% 19% 11% 6% 3% 3% 7%
Wrong direction 33% 11% 42% 9% 7% 6% 3% 23%
Source: GfK Metris exit poll

See also

Notes

  1. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the People's Party (CDS–PP) contested the 2015 election in a coalition called Portugal Ahead (PàF) and won a combined 38.6% of the vote and elected 107 MPs to parliament.
  2. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2015 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 8.3% of the vote and elected 17 MPs to parliament.
  3. The Socialist Alternative Movement (MAS) and the Portuguese Labour Party (PTP) contested the 2015 election in a coalition called AGIR! (Act!) and won a combined 0.4% of the vote.

References

  1. "Mapa Oficial n.º 8/2019", Comissão Nacional de Eleições, 12 August 2019. Retrieved 31 August 2019.
  2. "Marcelo anuncia eleições legislativas em 6 de outubro", Sapo 24, 7 December 2018. Retrieved 7 December 2018.
  3. "Há um antes e um depois da acusação de Tancos na campanha ", Público, 26 September 2019. Retrieved 5 April 2020.
  4. "Um mapa cor-de-rosa com sete maiorias absolutas", Público, 7 October 2019. Retrieved 9 October 2019.
  5. "Rui Rio: “Não há desastre nenhum”", Rádio e Televisão de Portugal, 7 October 2019. Retrieved 9 October 2019.
  6. "Luís Montenegro: "Sou candidato às próximas eleições diretas"". Diário de Notícias (in Portuguese). 9 October 2019.
  7. "CDS volta a meter-se num táxi e Assunção Cristas sai de cena", Público, 7 October 2019. Retrieved 9 October 2019.
  8. Fernandes, Jorge M.; Magalhães, Pedro C. (2020-01-08). "The 2019 Portuguese general elections". West European Politics. 0: 1–13. doi:10.1080/01402382.2019.1702301. ISSN 0140-2382.
  9. "Entrada de extrema-direita no Parlamento “deve alarmar partidos”", Público, 8 October 2019. Retrieved 9 October 2019.
  10. "Passos Coelho não se recandidata à liderança do PSD". Expresso (in Portuguese). 2017.
  11. "Rui Rio anuncia quarta-feira candidatura à liderança do PSD", RTP, 6 October 2017. Retrieved 20 January 2018.
  12. "PSD. Santana Lopes apresenta candidatura à liderança este domingo", RTP, 17 October 2017. Retrieved 20 January 2018.
  13. "Rui Rio é o novo presidente do PSD", Jornal de Negócios, 13 January 2018. Retrieved 20 January 2018.
  14. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-10-22. Retrieved 2015-10-07.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  15. Electoral law to the Assembly of the Republic
  16. "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
  17. "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  18. Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  19. "Mapa Oficial n.º 8/2019" (PDF). CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Diário da República, 1.a série—N.o 154-12 de agosto de 2019. Retrieved 31 August 2019.
  20. Lusa. "Rui Rio: "Nós não somos de direita. Nós somos do centro, somos moderados"" [Rui Rio: "We aren't right-wing. We are on the center, we're moderate"]. PÚBLICO (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2019-09-03.
  21. Paulo Trigo Pereira sai da bancada do PS com críticas ao “paternalismo” do Governo , Expresso, 7 December 2018. Retrieved 8 December 2018.
  22. "PSD Legislativas 2019". PSD (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 September 2019.
  23. "PS Legislativas 2019". PS (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 September 2019.
  24. "BE Legislativas 2019". BE (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 September 2019.
  25. "CDS Legislativas 2019". CDS-PP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 September 2019.
  26. "CDU Legislativas 2019". CDU (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 September 2019.
  27. "PAN apresenta Programa Eleitoral para Legislativas 2019". PAN (in Portuguese). 30 August 2019. Retrieved 4 September 2019.
  28. "Livre Legislativas 2019". Livre (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  29. "Iniciativa Liberal Legislativas 2019". Iniciativa Liberal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  30. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2019 – LEIRIA – CHEGA". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  31. "Este é o calendário de debates para as legislativas". Eco (in Portuguese). 2 August 2019. Retrieved 3 August 2019.
  32. https://www.politico.eu/article/antonio-costa-portugal-elections/
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