1999 Portuguese legislative election

The Portuguese legislative election of 1999 took place on 10 October. The Socialist Party was aiming a second term under the lead of António Guterres, in the end the Socialists won the election, but missed what would be an historical absolute majority for the party by just one MP.

1999 Portuguese legislative election
10 October 1999
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Registered8,864,604 0.5%
Turnout5,415,102 (61.1%)
5.2 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader António Guterres José Manuel Barroso Carlos Carvalhas
Party PS PSD PCP
Alliance CDU
Leader since 23 February 1992 27 May 1999 5 December 1992
Leader's seat Castelo Branco[1] Lisbon[2] Lisbon[3]
Last election 112 seats, 43.8% 88 seats, 34.1% 15 seats, 8.6%
Seats won 115 81 17
Seat change 3 7 2
Popular vote 2,385,922 1,750,158 487,058
Percentage 44.1% 32.3% 9.0%
Swing 0.3 pp 1.8 pp 0.4 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Paulo Portas Francisco Louçã
Party CDS–PP BE
Leader since 22 March 1998 24 March 1999
Leader's seat Aveiro[4] Lisbon[5]
Last election 15 seats, 9.0% New party
Seats won 15 2
Seat change 0 N/A
Popular vote 451,643 132,333
Percentage 8.3% 2.4%
Swing 0.7 pp N/A
Prime Minister before election

António Guterres
PS

 Elected Prime Minister

António Guterres
PS

This article is part of the series:
Politics and government of
Portugal
Portugal

The Social Democratic Party under the lead of José Manuel Durão Barroso was still away from the preferences of the majority of the Portuguese people, after the ten years cycle under the lead of Cavaco Silva that had terminated four years before. The Democratic Unity Coalition achieved an important climb in the scorecard, against those who predicted its irreversible decline after the end of the Socialist Bloc in the early 1990s. For the first time, the Left Bloc, formed after the merger of several minor left-wing parties became represented in the parliament after electing two MPs. Turnout in this election was very low, only being surpassed in 2009 and 2011 when turnout was just less than 60%.

Voter turnout reached only 61% of voters, one of the lowest ever recorded.

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[6]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[7] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[8]

Parties

The major parties involved were listed with their leaders:

António Guterres, leader of the Socialist Party, was nominated Prime Minister for the second time, and missed the absolute majority by one MP, achieving exactly half of the 230 MPs.

Campaign period

Party slogans
Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PS « Portugal em boas mãos » "Portugal in good hands" [9]
PSD « Vamos cumprir » "We will deliver" [10]
CDS–PP « Alternativa'99 » "Alternative'99" [11]
CDU « Para que não fique tudo na mesma » "So that everything will not stay the same" [12]
BE « É tempo de ser exigente » "It's time to be demanding" [13]

Candidates' debates
1999 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-inviteee 
PS
Guterres		 PSD
Barroso		 CDU
Carvalhas		 CDS–PP
Portas		 Refs
16 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P P N N [14]
17 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N N P P [14]
19 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N P N P [14]
20 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P N P N [14]
21 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P N N P [14]
22 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N P P N [14]
23 Sep RTP1 Judite de Sousa P P P P [15]
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate
Date Organisers Polling firm/Link
PS PSD CDU CDS–PP Notes
16 Sep SIC SIC 57 25 N/A N/A 18% Neither

Opinion polling
See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed are currently represented in parliament. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1995 and 1999 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.

Date Released Polling Firm PS PSD CDU CDS-PP BE Others Lead
10 Oct 1999 Leg. Election 44.1
115 seats		 32.3
81 seats		 9.0
17 seats		 8.3
15 seats		 2.4
2 seats		 3.9
0 seats		 11.8
10 Oct RTP/Universidade Católica 46.0 30.3 8.5 7.5 2.5 5.2 15.7
10 Oct SIC/Seeds 46.3 31.5 9.8 8.0 2.8 1.6 14.8
10 Oct TVI/Intercampus 46.3 28.6 9.5 8.3 3.2 4.1 17.7
Exit polls
2 Oct Euroexpansão 50.0 32.0 6.0 8.0 2.0 2.0 18.0
1 Oct Seeds 47.0 32.0 8.0 7.0 1.0 5.0 15.0
1 Oct Metris 48.0 31.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 6.0 17.0
1 Oct Universidade Católica 47.2 30.0 7.9 7.2 2.8 4.9 17.2
30 Sep Marktest 46.2 30.7 10.6 4.2 2.8 5.5 15.5
30 Sep Aximage 49.0 33.0 7.0 6.0 1.0 4.0 16.0
29 Jul Universidade Católica 52.0 31.6 6.9 6.2 1.9 1.4 20.4
1999
1 Oct 1995 Leg. Election 43.8
112 seats		 34.1
88 seats		 8.6
15 seats		 9.1
15 seats		 Did not exist 4.4
0 seats		 9.7

National summary of votes and seats
 Summary of the 10 October 1999 Assembly of the Republic elections results
Parties Votes % ± MPs MPs %/
votes %
1995 1999 ± % ±
Socialist 2,385,92244.060.3112115350.001.31.13
Social Democratic 1,750,15832.321.88881735.223.11.09
Unitary Democratic Coalition[A] 487,0588.990.4151727.390.90.82
People's 451,6438.340.7151506.520.00.78
Left Bloc 132,3332.44N/AN/A2N/A0.87N/A0.36
Portuguese Workers' Communist 40,0060.740.00000.000.00.0
Earth 19,9380.370.30000.000.00.0
People's Monarchist 16,5220.31N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
National Solidarity 11,4880.210.00000.000.00.0
Humanist 7,3460.14N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Workers Party of Socialist Unity 4,1040.080.10000.000.00.0
Democratic Party of the Atlantic[B] 4380.010.00000.000.00.0
Total valid 5,306,956 98.00 0.1 230 230 0 100.00 0.0 —
Blank ballots 56,9641.050.3
Invalid ballots 51,2300.950.1
Total (turnout 61.09%) 5,415,102 100.00 5.2
A Portuguese Communist Party (15 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.[16]
B Democratic Party of the Atlantic electoral list only in Azores.
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PS
 
 44.06%
PSD
 
 32.32%
CDU
 
 8.99%
CDS-PP
 
 8.34%
BE
 
 2.44%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 0.74%
Others
 
 1.12%
Blank/Invalid
 
 2.00%
Parliamentary seats
PS
 
 50.00%
PSD
 
 35.22%
CDU
 
 7.39%
CDS-PP
 
 6.52%
BE
 
 0.87%

Distribution by constituency
 Results of the 1999 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency
Constituency%S%S%S%S%S Total
S
PS PSD CDU CDS–PP BE
Azores 53.3 3 35.8 2 1.7 - 5.6 - 1.1 - 5
Aveiro 40.2 7 38.3 6 3.5 - 13.6 2 1.3 - 15
Beja 46.7 2 14.5 - 28.3 1 3.9 - 1.6 - 3
Braga 44.3 8 36.7 7 5.4 1 8.9 1 1.2 - 17
Bragança 39.7 2 45.1 2 2.6 - 8.7 - 0.8 - 4
Castelo Branco 51.6 3 32.0 2 5.3 - 6.3 - 1.2 - 5
Coimbra 47.2 6 35.2 4 6.1 - 6.0 - 2.0 - 10
EvoraÉvora 45.7 2 18.7 1 24.6 1 5.1 - 1.5 - 4
Faro 48.4 5 29.5 3 8.3 - 7.3 - 2.3 - 8
Guarda 43.4 2 39.2 2 3.2 - 9.8 - 1.1 - 4
Leiria 36.8 4 42.6 5 5.3 - 9.9 1 1.7 - 10
Lisbon 42.7 23 27.3 14 12.3 6 8.5 4 4.9 2 49
Madeira 35.1 2 46.2 3 2.8 - 10.9 - 1.2 - 5
Portalegre 51.2 2 22.5 1 15.0 - 5.9 - 1.2 - 3
Porto 48.0 19 32.7 13 6.2 2 7.5 3 2.3 - 37
Santarém 45.5 5 30.2 3 10.1 1 8.1 1 2.0 - 10
Setúbal 43.7 8 18.0 3 24.8 5 5.6 1 3.5 - 17
Viana do Castelo 40.2 3 35.8 2 5.0 - 14.0 1 1.2 - 6
Vila Real 40.8 2 45.5 3 2.4 - 6.8 - 0.8 - 5
Viseu 38.1 4 44.3 4 2.2 - 10.5 1 1.2 - 9
zEurope 55.4 2 24.7 - 5.3 - 3.2 - 0.6 - 2
zRest of the World 39.8 1 49.5 1 1.7 - 3.5 - 0.4 - 2
Total 44.1 115 32.3 81 9.0 17 8.3 15 2.4 2 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps
  • Most voted political force by district. (Madeira and Azores not shown)
  • Most voted political force by municipality.

References
  1. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  2. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  3. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  4. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  5. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  6. "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
  7. "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  8. Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  9. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – EVORA – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  10. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – PSD – DURÃO BARROSO". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  11. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – CDS-PP". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  12. "PCP Legislativas 1999". PCP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  13. "Programa Legislativas 1999". BE (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  14. "Como Guterres mudou os debates para sempre e as arrobas chegaram ao estrelato". Expresso (in Portuguese). 9 September 2015. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  15. "Operação Legislativas no ar". Público (in Portuguese). 8 September 1999. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  16. "Electoral results - Assembly of the Republic". Archived from the original on 2012-07-16. Retrieved 2012-09-02.

See also
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