California's 39th congressional district election, 2018

California's 39th congressional district election, 2018
Tuesday, November 6, 2018

 
Nominee Young Kim Gil Cisneros
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. Representative

Ed Royce
Republican

California's 39th congressional district election, 2018 will be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2018, with a primary election being held on June 5, 2018. Republican Representative Ed Royce, chairman of the United States House Committee on Foreign Affairs, is stepping aside after 13 terms, creating an open seat. This election is one of several 53 House elections being held in California and 435 nationwide, but it has been called "the weirdest race in the country."[1]

Democrats' goal of flipping enough seats to retake the House in the United States House of Representatives elections, 2018 has attracted more grassroots campaigning, national attention and outside money to the district than ever before. As of May, the race in the 39th district had seen the fourth most money spent of any House race in the nation.[2] As of June, $10 million had been spent, making the race the most expensive in the state.[3] According to Rep. Steve Stivers, Republicans need to win in suburban districts like Orange County's to hold their majority.[4]

The primary election was held on June 5, 2018. Under election rules the top two vote-getters in the jungle primary advance to November, regardless of party affiliation.[5] Initially seven Democratic candidates split the vote in the district, all but blocking the party from making an endorsement there;[6] the district was one of three (the other two being the 48th and 49th) that Democrats were concerned they could lose in the primary due to vote-splitting.[7] The party held a pre-endorsement conference in January and urged some candidates to withdraw. In the primary, Republican Assemblywoman Young Kim came in first and Democrat Gil Cisneros, whom the party had supported, polled more votes than rival Andy Thorburn to advance to the general election.[8]

Background

The 39th district stretches from Diamond Bar to Yorba Linda, taking in Rowland Heights, La Habra and Buena Park.[9] Stuart Rothenberg notes, "Uncertain GOP turnout in the state, partially a function of Trump's weakness, adds to Republican woes. Again, if a Democrat makes the top two, the district is likely to flip."[10]

The district has 17 candidates heading into the June 5 primary — six Democrats, seven Republicans, two American Independents and two no party preference candidates.[11] The 39th district is one of four Orange County districts that are considered competitive races in 2018.[12] Hillary Clinton carried the 39th District by 8 points in the 2016 election.[13] Of those four, the 39th is the most ethnically diverse, with Latino and Asian residents each comprising around a quarter of the district's voter rolls, and a quarter of all registered voters in the district also being foreign-born. The proportion of voters in the district who are registered Republican has dropped from 40 to 35 percent since 2012, but Republicans believe that, as is typical, their turnout in the primary will be significantly larger than Democrats'.[2] Initial ballot returns show that Republicans accounted for 46 percent of ballot returns in the 39th districts through May 22, while Democratic returns were at 34 percent.[14]

Sara Sadhwani notes that in 2012, when the Chinese American Democrat Jay Chen was running, Chen got 62 percent of the Asian American votes generally and a 95 percent of Chinese American votes. Therefore, she writes, "if the 2012 race is a clue, Asian Americans may well vote for either Korean American Young Kim, a former Republican state legislator, or Vietnamese American Democrat Mai Khanh Tran."[15]

The Democratic Party's intervention in this case is in contrast to the situation in California's 45th congressional district, where Dave Min has been allowed to go hard negative against his two Democratic opponents because only one Republican, incumbent Mimi Walters is in the race, which effectively ensures that a Democrat will be in the top two who participate in the general election.[16]

Competitiveness

The district is considered a prime opportunity for a Democratic pickup, given that Hillary Clinton carried it by 8 percent in the United States presidential election, 2016 and that it is less than 30 percent white.[6] Royce's retirement led the Cook Political Report to move CA-39 from lean Republican to lean Democratic.[17] However, on May 22, Cook moved the district into the "Toss Up" column, noting that "Nelson looks like the biggest threat to Democrats obtaining a runoff slot against Kim on the fall ballot" and that "even if a Democrat advances, Republicans believe Kim's profile as an Asian-American woman gives them a chance to keep the seat."[18]

There are still more voters in the district registered as Republicans than Democrats, however.[19] The 39th is conservative and upper-middle class with only 35 percent of the population identifying as Hispanic and the majority identifying as white or Asian.[20] Specifically, Asians make up around 32 percent of the district.[21]

The Washington Post cited the 39th as the kind of district Democrats need to win if they want to gain control of the lower house.[22] Politico put it on its list of 10 key districts around the country that will define the battle for control of the House, noting, "All signs point to record spending here, as Democrats hope to chip into the Republican stronghold in suburban Southern California."[23] Overall, Democrats need to flip 24 Republican seats to reclaim the House, and the 39th is one of 25 Republican seats that are in Clinton territory. The 39th is also one of 15 open seats that the New York Times considers competitive (specifically, the 39th was rated as a tossup).[24]

Campaigns

Young Kim was the first Republican in the election to launch a TV ad. The ad highlights her connection to Royce, her record as a state legislator, and her family history. Two Democrats in the race, Navy veteran and lottery winner Gil Cisneros and Andy Thorburn, also launched TV ads in April.[13] Sam Jammal narrated an advertisement from a dog's point of view.[25]

As of May 15, 2018, House Majority PAC and Priorities USA Action planned to air ads targeting Bob Huff and Shawn Nelson, in an effort to help their chosen candidate, Cisneros. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, a week prior, had made a nearly $450,000 ad buy targeting those same two candidates.[26] The anti-Nelson ad accuses him of hypocrisy over pensions.[27] The anti-Huff ad says, "He huffs and he puffs but would make your taxes go up."[28]

The DCCC ads do not target Young Kim, who's seen as the leading Republican and has been endorsed by Royce to succeed him, since the purpose of the ads is to put a Democrat in the top two[29] by ensuring that Kim is the only Republican to reach the general election.[30] As of May, the DCCC was also undertaking an operation including mailers and digital ads (via platforms such as Google, Facebook, Instagram, and Snapchat), aimed at registering and turning out the party’s voters.[7]

Cisneros and Thorburn each launched dueling websites panning their rival. Cisneros's camp has a website framing Thorburn as a tax-evader, while Thorburn's camp has a site calling Cisneros a gun lover.[31] In May, California Democratic Party Chairman Eric Bauman announced that he had helped to engineer a deal between Thorburn and Cisneros to stop attacking each other and instead focus on "promoting their positive visions" and "highlighting their contrast with the corrupt, incompetent Trump Republicans." Both candidates took down their negative websites against each other.[27]

In May, the DCCC announced its first Spanish-language midterm TV ad in favor of Cisneros. The ad criticizes Republicans for trying to cut funds for education and student aid, and for denying Dreamers a path to citizenship.[32] Meanwhile, House Majority PAC has sent out mailing pieces to Republican and independent voters tying Phil Liberatore to President Trump, a move to raise the underfunded Liberatore's name recognition and try to siphon off votes from other GOP candidates to him. The ads point out Liberatore's desire for a border wall and an end to sanctuary cities, and his endorsement by Joe Arpaio.[33]

Republicans have been less eager than Democrats to thin the herd of candidates, which is why the Young Guns program includes both Kim and Nelson on its list.[34]

Polls

A poll from Fight Back California PAC found that when presented with a list of the three Republicans and four Democrats with some name recognition, Republican Young Kim led the pack with 21 percent of the vote, followed by Republican Bob Huff (19 percent), Democrat Gil Cisneros (16 percent), and Democrat Andy Thorburn (16 percent).[6]

Candidates

Republican

Bob Huff

Bob Huff is a former state senator who represented California's 29th State Senate district.

Young Kim

Young Kim is a former Assemblywoman who represented California's 65th State Assembly district. She emigrated from South Korea in 1975, graduated from University of Southern California in 1981, worked in a bank and then as a controller of a ladieswear manufacturing firm, and served in Royce's congressional office for 21 years as community liaison and director of Asian affairs and has received Royce's endorsement.[21]

Phil Liberatore

Phil Liberatore is a Certified Public Accountant, founder of IRS Problem Solvers, and author of God, Money and You.

Shawn Nelson

Shawn Nelson is an Orange County Supervisor.

Democratic

Andy Thorburn

Andy Thorburn is a former teacher and union activist who made his wealth in the insurance business. He was CEO of Foothill Ranch-based Global Benefits Group from 2005 to 2015, and remains its largest stockholder.[35]

Gil Cisneros

Gil Cisneros is a Navy veteran and former shipping and distribution manager at Frito-Lay who won a lottery jackpot of $266 million with his wife in 2010.[36]

Sam Jammal

Sam Jammal is a former Obama administration official.[37]

Mai Khanh Tran

Mai Khanh Tran is a pediatrician. Despite pressure from Democratic officials, she has refused to drop out, saying she is "the only qualified woman, the only immigrant and the only physician in the race".[38]

Other

Scientist Phil Janowicz dropped out of the race to avoid splitting the Democratic vote.[39] Potential candidate Jay Chen also opted not to run, saying, "The greatest contribution I can make right now is to help consolidate the field, by stepping away from it." The DCCC praised his move.[40] Chen's dropping out was cited as an example of how self-funding millionaires are driving less wealthy Democrats out of California primaries.[41]

Endorsements

Although the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has backed Gil Cisneros,[38] including by adding him to its "Red to Blue" program, which offers designated candidates financial and organizational support, it has not officially endorsed him.[29] Tran has been endorsed by Emily's List and by the Feminist Majority Foundation. The California and Orange County Democratic parties did not endorse anyone.[42] Thorburn has been endorsed by the California Nurses Association.[43]

Fundraising

Millionaires Andy Thorburn and Gil Cisneros have loaned their campaigns $2.3 million and $2 million respectively.[44] As of March 31, Kim had raised more than $600,000, according to FEC filings, fourth most in the race and the most for a Republican.[21] Kim has received $178,000 in mailers and web ads,[2] and $316,998 altogether, from The American Future Fund. The California Freedom and Prosperity Fund PAC spent about $85,000 opposing Kim, while spending five figures boosting Nelson.[45]

Issues

Young says she wants to create jobs and keep taxes low.[21] Cisneros, Thorburn, Jammal and Tran have advocated for tax reform that ends cuts for the wealthy.[2]

Cisneros has raised the issue of homelessness among veterans, vowing to fight any attempts to defund or weaken HUD-VASH.[46]

Thorburn supports a Medicare for all healthcare system.[43] Cisneros, Jammal and Tran have also supported universal health care.

Cisneros, Thorburn, Jammal and Tran support banning assault weapons and implementing universal background checks on gun purchases. Thorburn sent out mailers accusing Cisneros of investing millions of dollars in gun industry stock.[2]

Republicans have campaigned chiefly on increased border security and an end to California sanctuary state law.[2] Kim has said she wants to increase border security and ensure those brought to the U.S. "as children without legal documentation are treated fairly and with compassion."[21]

References

  1. ↑ Schneider, Elena (3 June 2018). "'This is the weirdest race in the country'". Politico. Retrieved 1 July 2018.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Graham, Jordan (May 18, 2018). "The CA 39th: Candidates, intrigue, money and, now, a truce". Orange County Register.
  3. ↑ Schneider, Elena (June 3, 2018). "'This is the weirdest race in the country'". Politico.
  4. ↑ Blood, Michael R. (May 2, 2018). "California's Orange County could determine Congress control". Seattle Times.
  5. ↑ Blood, Michael R. (May 5, 2018). "California's Orange County could determine Congress control". Sacramento Bee.
  6. 1 2 3 Rapfogel, Adam (April 2, 2018). "California's Jungle Primary Will Change Election Outcomes this November". Gordian Digital.
  7. 1 2 Roarty, Alex (May 17, 2018). "Dems increase effort to avoid California catastrophe". McClatchy DC.
  8. ↑ Martin, Jonathan; Arango, Tim (June 6, 2018). "Democrats Find Relief in California House Race Results". The New York Times.
  9. ↑ Oshiro, Sandra (May 7, 2018). "2018 Election: Your guide to SoCal's key congressional races". KPCC.
  10. ↑ Rothenberg, Stuart (May 14, 2018). "Rothenberg's Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats". Inside Elections.
  11. ↑ Custodio, Spencer (May 10, 2018). "North OC's 39th Congressional Race Still a 'Toss Up'". Voice of OC.
  12. ↑ Custodio, Spencer (January 8, 2018). "Four County GOP Congressional Seats Targeted in 2018". Voice of OC.
  13. 1 2 Bowman, Bridget (April 19, 2018). "Young Kim Launches First TV Ad in California's 39th District". Roll Call.
  14. ↑ Bowman, Bridget (May 24, 2018). "'That Danger Is Real' — Democrats' Final Push to Avoid Shutout in Key California Races". Roll Call.
  15. ↑ Sadhwani, Sara (May 1, 2018). "Will Asian Americans make California even bluer in November?". Washington Post.
  16. ↑ Dayen, David (May 25, 2018). "In a California House Race, the Democratic Party's Candidate Is Going to War Against Elizabeth Warren's". The Intercept.
  17. ↑ Wasserman, David (January 8, 2018). "Royce Retirement Moves CA-39 from Lean Republican to Lean Democratic". Cook Political Report.
  18. ↑ Wasserman, David (May 22, 2018). "House Ratings Changes: GOP Fortunes Improve in Four Districts". Cook Political Report.
  19. ↑ Kennedy, Corinne S. (March 8, 2018). "Democrats could turn some California GOP districts blue — if they get on the same page". The Desert Sun.
  20. ↑ Anderson, Lauren (November 24, 2017). "Battleground 2018: How California's Red Districts Can Alter the Nation's Political Landscape". Harvard Political Review.
  21. 1 2 3 4 5 Fuchs, Chris (May 16, 2018). "Young Kim's Congressional campaign is a run two decades in the making". NBC News.
  22. ↑ Phillips, Amber (March 18, 2018). "The top 10 House races of 2018". Washington Post.
  23. ↑ Schneider, Elena (December 25, 2017). "The top 10 House races to watch in 2018". Politico.
  24. ↑ Lee, Jasmine C. (March 26, 2018). "To Reclaim the House, Democrats Need to Flip 24 G.O.P. Seats. 25 Are in Clinton Territory". New York Times.
  25. ↑ Hamblin, Abby (May 15, 2018). "California voters, the onslaught of political advertising is here". The San Diego Union-Tribune.
  26. ↑ Wright, David (May 15, 2018). "Pair of top Democratic groups target key California districts in new ad push". CNN Politics.
  27. 1 2 Hagen, Lisa (May 18, 2018). "Dem peace deal reached in crucial House district". The Hill.
  28. ↑ Mai-Duc, Christine (May 7, 2018). "DCCC drops first TV ads of 2018, attacking Republicans running for Ed Royce seat". Los Angeles Times.
  29. 1 2 Hagen, Lisa (May 14, 2018). "House Dems boost spending in key California races". The Hill.
  30. ↑ "California's primaries are the most unpredictable in America". The Economist.
  31. ↑ Hagen, Lisa (May 16, 2018). "Dems step up efforts to avoid California primary shutouts". The Hill.
  32. ↑ Habib, Yamily (May 23, 2018). "Gil Cisneros: the independent promise in California". Al Dia.
  33. ↑ Joseph, Cameron (May 22, 2018). "Dem Super PAC Spending To Elevate GOP Hardliner In California House Race". Talking Points Memo.
  34. ↑ Wildermuth, John (May 3, 2018). "Neo-Nazi running second to Feinstein in Senate poll in California". San Francisco Chronicle.
  35. ↑ Wisckol, Martin (August 1, 2017). "New challenger to Rep. Ed Royce wields $2 million". Orange County Register.
  36. ↑ Mai-Duc, Christine (July 17, 2017). "Navy veteran/lottery winner to challenge Orange County Rep. Ed Royce for Congress". Los Angeles Times.
  37. ↑ Burlij, Terence (May 7, 2018). "Four big 2018 questions that will be answered over the next four weeks". CNN.
  38. 1 2 Burns, Alexander (April 21, 2018). "Democrats push some candidates to bow out of midterm elections". The New York Times.
  39. ↑ Mervis, Jeffrey (April 27, 2018). "A house too far: Two scientists abandon their bids for Congress". Science.
  40. ↑ Dann, Carrie (March 13, 2018). "Dem field in competitive CA-39 race gets a little less crowded". NBC News.
  41. ↑ Dayen, David (March 20, 2018). "Self-Funded Millionaires are Forcing Promising Democrats Out of California Primaries". The Intercept.
  42. ↑ Coker, Matt (May 17, 2018). "Year of the Woman? Not When It Comes to Orange County's Congressional Races". OC Weekly.
  43. 1 2 Wildermuth, John (April 19, 2018). "Lottery millionaire wins again: National Democrats help him in Orange County race". San Francisco Chronicle.
  44. ↑ Castillejo, Esther (April 17, 2018). "The Note: Trump world a nexus of spider web connections". ABC News.
  45. ↑ Hagen, Lisa (May 27, 2018). "Dem money floods Calif. primaries to avert electoral disaster". The Hill.
  46. ↑ Cisneros, Gil (May 4, 2018). "Cisneros: Veteran Homelessness Continues to Grow". Voice of OC.
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