Climate change in Canada

In Canada, mitigation of anthropogenic climate change and global warming is a topic of central political concern. According to the 2019 report Canada's Changing Climate Report (CCCR)[1] which was commissioned by Environment and Climate Change Canada, Canada's annual average temperature over land has warmed by 1.7 C since 1948. The rate of warming is even higher in Canada's North, in the Prairies and northern British Columbia.[2]

Map of Canada showing the increases in GHG emissions by province/territory in 2008, compared to the 1990 base year.
  50%+ increase
  30%-50% increase
  20%-30% increase
  10%-20% increase
  0%-10% increase
  0%-10% decrease
  Each square represents 2 tonnes CO
2 eq. per capita

Observed impacts

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), formerly Environment Canada, is a federal department with the stated role of protecting the environment, conserving national natural heritage, and also providing weather and meteorological information.[3] According to ECCC[4] "warming over the 20th century is indisputable and largely due to human activities" adding "Canada's rate of warming is about twice the global rate: a 2°C increase globally means a 3 to 4ºC increase for Canada".[5] Berkeley Earth has reported that 2015 was "unambiguously" the warmest year on record across the world, with the Earth’s temperature more than 1.0 C (1.8 F) above the 1850-1900 average.[6]

ECCC lists impacts of climate change consistent with global changes. Temperature-related changes include longer growing season, more heatwaves and fewer cold spells, thawing permafrost, earlier river ice break-up, earlier spring runoff, and earlier budding of trees. Meteorological changes include an increase in precipitation and more snowfall in northwest Arctic.[4] Highlighting that "Warming is not uniform ...(the) Arctic is warming even faster", ECCC notes 2012 had the lowest extent of Arctic sea ice on record up to 2014.

ECCC's Climate Research Division summarized annual precipitation changes to support biodiversity assessments by the Canadian Councils of Resource Ministers. Evaluating records up to 2007 they observed: "Precipitation has generally increased over Canada since 1950 with the majority of stations with significant trends showing increases. The increasing trend is most coherent over northern Canada where many stations show significant increases. There is not much evidence of clear regional patterns in stations showing significant changes in seasonal precipitation except for significant decreases which tend to be concentrated in the winter season over southwestern and southeastern Canada. While the previous sentence might be technically correct in part, all seasons show increased precipitation in Canada, especially in the Winter, Spring, and Fall months.[7] Also, increasing precipitation over the Arctic appears to be occurring in all seasons except summer."[8]

ECCC climate specialists have assessed trends in short-duration rainfall patterns using Engineering Climate Datasets: "Short-duration (5 minutes to 24 hours) rainfall extremes are important for a number of purposes, including engineering infrastructure design, because they represent the different meteorological scales of extreme rainfall events." A "general lack of a detectable trend signal", meaning no overall change in extreme,short-duration rainfall patterns was observed in the single station analysis. In relation to design criteria used for traditional water management and urban drainage design practice (e.g., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) statistics), the evaluation "shows that fewer than 5.6% and 3.4% of the stations have significant increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, in extreme annual maximum single location observation amounts." On a regional basis, southwest and the east (Newfoundland) coastal regions generally showed significant increasing regional trends for 1- and 2-hour extreme rainfall durations. Decreasing regional trends for 5 to 15 minute rainfall amounts were observed in the St. Lawrence region of southern Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces.[9]

Climate change melts ice and increases the mobility of the ice. In May and June 2017 dense ice—up to 8 metres (25ft) thick—was in the waters off the northern coast of Newfoundland, trapping fishing boats and ferries.[10]

The Public Health Agency of Canada reported that incidences of Lyme Disease increased from 144 cases in 2009 to 2017. Dr. Duncan Webster, an infectious disease consultant at Saint John Regional Hospital, links this increase in disease incidence to the increase in the population of blacklegged ticks. The tick population has increased due largely to shorter winters and warmer temperatures associated with climate change.[11]

Emissions

In 2000, Canada ranked ninth out of 186 countries in terms of per capita greenhouse gas emissions without taking into account land use changes. In 2005 it ranked eighth.[12] In 2009, Canada was ranked seventh in total greenhouse gas emissions behind Germany and Japan.[13] In 2018 of all the G20 countries, Canada was second only to Saudi Arabia for per capita emissions.[14]

Canada is a large country with a low population density, so transportation—often in cold weather when fuel efficiency drops—is a big part of the economy. In 2016, 25 per cent of Canada's greenhouse gases (GHG)s came from trucks, trains, airplanes and cars .[15] The largest source of GHG emissions, accounting for 26% of the national total, is from the oil and gas sector, driven by high emissions from tar sands projects.

According to Canada's Energy Outlook, the Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) report,[16] NRCan estimates that Canada's GHG emissions will increase by 139 million tonnes between 2004 and 2020, with more than a third of the total coming from petroleum production and refining. Upstream emissions will decline slightly, primarily from gas field depletion and from increasing production of coalbed methane, which requires less processing than conventional natural gas. Meanwhile, emissions from unconventional resources and refining will soar.[17] However, the estimates for carbon emissions differ amongst Environment Canada, World Resources Institute and the International Energy Agency by nearly 50%. The reasons for the differences have not been determined.

Public policy

Kyoto Protocol
Main article: Canada and the Kyoto Protocol

Canada is a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol. However, the Liberal government that later signed the accord took little action towards meeting Canada's greenhouse gas emission targets. Although Canada committed itself to a 6% reduction below the 1990 levels for the 2008–2012 as a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol, the country did not implement a plan to reduce greenhouse gasses emissions. Soon after the 2006 federal election, the new minority government of Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced that Canada could and would not meet Canada's commitments. The House of Commons passed several opposition-sponsored bills calling for government plans for the implementation of emission reduction measures.

Canadian and North American environmental groups feel that Canada lacks credibility on environmental policy and regularly criticize Canada in international venues. In the last few months of 2009, Canada's attitude was criticized at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) conference,[18] at the Commonwealth summit,[19] and the Copenhagen conference.[20]

In 2011, Canada, Japan and Russia stated that they would not take on further Kyoto targets.[21] The Canadian government invoked Canada's legal right to formally withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol on December 12, 2011.[22] Canada was committed to cutting its greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels by 2012, but in 2009 emissions were 17% higher than in 1990. Environment minister Peter Kent cited Canada's liability to "enormous financial penalties" under the treaty unless it withdrew.[21][23] He also suggested that the recently signed Durban agreement may provide an alternative way forward.[24] Canada's decision was strongly criticized by representatives of other ratifying countries, including France and China.

Harper Government (2006–2015)

Under the tenure of Stephen Harper, who was Prime Minister from 2006 to 2015, the Kyoto Accord was abandoned and the Clean Air Act was unveiled on October 19, 2006.[25]

In 2009, Canada's two largest provinces, Ontario and Quebec, became wary of federal policies shifting the burden of greenhouse reductions on them in order to give Alberta and Saskatchewan more room to further develop their oil sands reserves.[26]


In 2010 Graham Saul, who represented the Climate Action Network Canada (CAN) — a coalition of 60 non-governmental organisations — commented on the 40-page CAN report "Troubling Evidence"[27] which claimed that,[28]

"Canada's climate researchers are being muzzled, their funding slashed, research stations closed, findings ignored and advice on the critical issue of the century unsought by Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government."

— Leahy The Guardian 2010

By 2014 award-winning American/Canadian limnologist, David Schindler, argued that Harper's administration had put "economic development ahead of all other policy objectives", in particular the environment.[29]

"It’s like they don’t want to hear about science anymore. They want politics to reflect economics 100 per cent - economics being only what you can sell, not what you can save."

— David Schindler 2014

Trudeau Government (2015–present)

Election promises

After being elected, prime minister Justin Trudeau outlined the Liberal government's Climate Action Plan:[30]

  • “We will fulfil our G20 commitment and phase out subsidies for the fossil fuel industry over the medium-term.”
  • “We will also work in partnership with the United States and Mexico to develop an ambitious North American clean energy and environmental agreement.”
  • “Together, we will attend the Paris climate conference, and within 90 days formally meet to establish a pan-Canadian framework for combatting climate change.”
  • “We will endow the Low Carbon Economy Trust with $2 billion in our mandate.”

While the Liberal government has fulfilled many of its program commitments relating to climate change, environment commissioner Julie Gelfand described the country's lack of progress in reducing emissions as “disturbing" and noted that it was on track to miss its climate change targets.[30]

Cabinet appointments and Paris Summit

Trudeau has appointed Stéphane Dion to the position of Foreign Affairs. Dion is known as being very supportive of climate change policies. Catherine McKenna has been appointed Minister to the newly named Environment and Climate Change. McKenna is known for her legal work surrounding social justice. Trudeau and McKenna garnered the attention of the global media when they attended the Paris climate summit. Canada has committed to the following:[30]

  • arrest global temperature increase at 1.5 °C
  • phase out fossil fuels
  • financial support of clean energy
  • assist developing countries to meet their targets

Fossil fuel emissions

Even though fossil fuels will be phased out in "the medium term" Trudeau has stated that the Kinder Morgan Pipeline will be built. The federal government has also approved the Woodfibre LNG Terminal in Vancouver.[30]

Overview of federal climate policies

Canada has established a special liaison with the IPCC dubbed IPCC Focal Point for Canada. [31]

Canada has established the following climate change funding programs:[31]

  • The Low Carbon Economy Fund
  • Public Transit Infrastructure Fund
  • Climate Action Fund
  • Green Infrastructure Fund
  • Clean Technology Programs

Indigenous peoples

New climate change programs for Indigenous Peoples:[32]

  • Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program
  • Northern Responsible Energy Approach for Community Heat and Electricity Program
  • Climate Change Preparedness in the North Program
  • First Nation Adapt Program
  • Indigenous Community-Based Climate Monitoring Program

Carbon tax
Main article: Carbon pricing in Canada

The Trudeau government has introduced a carbon tax. Details are different for each province. [31] The federal tax is $20 a tonne in 2018 and will increase by $10 a year until it reaches $50 in April 2022. It also places levies on natural gas, pump gas, propane, butane, and aviation fuel.[33]

Ontario Premier Doug Ford, Albertan Premier Jason Kenney (UCP) and Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister (PC) took the federal government to court on April 15, 2019 and the court ruled in favour (3–2) of the constitutionality of the carbon tax. Ford was criticised by the Green Party for spending $30M on the lawsuit instead of using it for environmental concerns. The provinces are appealing the decision to the Supreme Court of Canada.

Climate change adaptation measures

The Canadian government has adopted 4 adaptation-related programs:[31]

  • The Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth
    • Export clean technologies globally
    • Adopt clean, indigenous energy solutions with less regulation
    • Improve the access to information on clean technology
  • Expert Panel on Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience Results
    • Advise federal government
  • Federal Adaptation Policy Framework
    • Ensure education of the public on climate change
    • Ensure that tools to adapt to climate change are available to Canadians
    • Ensure that the federal government is resilient to climate change
  • Canadian Centre for Climate Services
    • Library of climate resources
    • Climate information basics
    • Climate Services Support Desk
    • Display and download climate data

Canada's Changing Climate Report

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) released a report called Canada's Changing Climate Report (CCCR). It is essentially a summary of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, customised for Canada. [34] The report states that coastal flooding is expected to increase in many areas due to global sea-level rise and local land subsidence or uplift.

Legislation
See also: Politics of Canada and Environmental policy of the Harper government
  • Climate Change Action Plan 2001

Climate emergency

Following on a motion by prime minister Justin Trudeau, on June 12, 2019 the House of Commons has voted to declare a national climate emergency.[35]

Lobbying

The Canadian Wildlife Federation (CWF), one of the largest conservation organisations in the country, takes an active stance in lobbying on mitigation of global warming. According to CWF the organisation recognised the need for action in 1977.[36] It had published Checkerspot, a now discontinued biannual climate change magazine.

Fossil fuel divestment

Fossil fuel divestment is a social movement which urges everyone from individual investors to large institutions to remove their investments (to divest) from publicly listed oil, gas and coal companies, with the intention of combating climate change by reducing the amount of Green-house gases released into the atmosphere, and holding the oil, gas and coal companies responsible for their role in climate change.

Founder of the movement Bill McKibben, a researcher and academic from the University of Victoria, and creator of the webpage 350.org stated: "If it is wrong to wreck the climate, then it is wrong to profit from the wreckage. We believe […] organizations that serve the public good should divest from fossil fuels".

Movement intentions
  • 1. Protect the investor from exposure to the financial risks of ‘unburnable carbon’ whereby fossil fuel reserves become uneconomic or are no longer viable to process due to future climate policy or market conditions
  • 2. Divesting from these companies can keep a substantial portion of fossil fuels in the ground
  • 3. Large institutions can substitute high-carbon investments with low-carbon transition investments

Limits of divestment

Although the impact of divestment is likely to have limited quantitative success in reducing carbon emissions, the movement can gain momentum as a symbolic gesture that has the potential to shift social expectations of investment practices within businesses. Divestment has the potential to be effective if the divested funds are re-invested into the infrastructure of a low-carbon economy. The impact of divestment is believed to be minimal as the continual purchase of oil and gas (and oil and gas derived products such as plastics) will still sustain the oil and gas companies.

Climate change by province
Greenhouse gas emissions (t CO2Eq) per capita (2016)
Juridiction t CO2Eq
 Quebec
 
 9.55
 Ontario
 
 11.82
 Prince Edward Island
 
 12.60
 British Columbia
 
 13.34
 Nunavut
 
 13.91
 Yukon
 
 16.73
 Manitoba
 
 17.21
 Nova Scotia
 
 17.32
 New Brunswick
 
 18.74
 Newfoundland and Labrador
 
 19.24
 Canada
 
 20.14
 Northwest Territories
 
 28.72
 Alberta
 
 67.12
 Saskatchewan
 
 71.02

While the federal government was slow to develop a monitoring and credible reduction regime, several provincial governments have established substantial programs to reduce emissions on their respective territories. British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec have joined the Western Climate Initiative,[37] a group of 7 states of the Western United States whose aim is to establish a common framework to establish a carbon credit market. These provinces have also made commitments regarding the reduction and announced concrete steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Alberta has an established "Climate Change Action Plan",[38] released in 2008. The Specified Gas Emitters Regulation in Alberta made it the first jurisdiction in North America to have a price on carbon.[38] Reduction programs in other provinces are much less developed.

However, a cost-effectiveness analysis of these programs by the Fraser Institute has questioned their value. In other jurisdictions, carbon markets, renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, and energy efficiency programs have yielded disappointing benefits in comparison to the funds and regulations that have created them.[39]

Public opinion

Canadian opinion on the threat posed by climate change is higher than their United States counterparts, but sits slightly below the median acceptance opinion rates of other nations included in a Pew Research Center survey in 2018.[40] However the majority of Canadians in every electoral riding of every province in Canada believe that Climate change is happening.[41]

Rates of acceptance for ongoing Climate change are highest in British Columbia and Quebec, and lowest in the prairie provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. In a survey published by the University of Montreal and colleagues, national belief that the earth was warming was at 83%, while 12% of respondents said the earth was not warming. However when asked if this warming is due to human activity, only 60% of respondents said yes.[42] These numbers are consistent with a 2015 survey that showed 85% of Canadians believed the earth was warming, while only 61% felt this warming was due to human activity; Canadian public opinion that human activity is responsible for global warming slightly declined overall between 2007 to 2015.[43] When asked whether their province has already felt the effects of Climate change, 70% of Canadians responded "yes," including a majority of respondents in almost all electoral ridings; the three ridings in Alberta where opinion was lowest each polled at 49% "yes" just below a majority. National support for action to stop Climate change sits at 58%, with similar levels of support for either a "cap and trade" system (58%) or a direct tax on carbon emissions (54%).[42]

Alberta

The Specified Gas Emitters Regulation has placed a price on carbon dioxide emissions in Alberta since 2007[44] and was renewed to 2017 with increased stringency. It requires "large final emitters", defined as facilities emitting more than 100,000tCO2e per year, to comply with an emission intensity reduction which increases over time and caps at 12% in 2015, 15% in 2016 and 20% in 2017. Facilities have several options for compliance. They may actually make reductions, pay into the Climate Change and Emission Management Fund (CCEMF), purchase credits from other large final emitters or purchase credits from non-large final emitters in the form of offset credits.[45] Criticisms against the intensity-based approach to pricing carbon include the fact that there is no hard cap on emissions and actual emissions may always continue to rise despite the fact that carbon has a price. Benefits of an intensity-based system include the fact that during economic recessions, the carbon intensity reduction will remain equally as stringent and challenging, while hard caps tend to become easily met, irrelevant and do not work to reduce emissions. Alberta has also been criticized that its goals are too weak, and that the measures enacted are not likely to achieve the goals. In 2015, the newly elected government committed to revising the climate change strategy.[46][47]

In Alberta there has been a trend of high summer temperatures and low summer precipitation. This has led much of Alberta to face drought conditions.[48] Drought conditions are harming the agriculture sector of this province, mainly the cattle ranching area.[49] When there is a drought there is a shortage of feed for cattle (hay, grain). With the shortage on crops ranchers are forced to purchase the feed at the increased prices while they can. For those who cannot afford to pay top money for feed are forced to sell their herds.[50][51]

During the drought of 2002, Ontario had a good season and produced enough crops to send a vast amount of hay to those hit the hardest in Alberta. However this is not something that can or will be expected every time there is a drought in the prairie provinces.[52] This causes a great deficit in income for many as they are buying heads of cattle for high prices and selling them for very low prices.[53] By looking at historical forecasts, there is a strong indication that there is no true way to estimate or to know the amount of rain to expect for the upcoming growing season. This does not allow for the agricultural sector to plan accordingly.[54] As of 2008, Alberta's electricity sector was the most carbon-intensive of all Canadian provinces and territories, with total emissions of 55.9 million tonnes of CO
2 equivalent in 2008, accounting for 47% of all Canadian emissions in the electricity and heat generation sector.[55]

In November 2015, Premier Rachel Notley unveiled plans to increase the province's carbon tax to $20 per tonne in 2017, increasing further to $30 per tonne by 2018.[56] This policy shift came about partly because of the rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline, which the premier likened to a "kick in the teeth".[57] The province's new climate policies also include phasing out coal-fired power plants by 2030, and cutting emissions of methane by 45% by 2025.[58]

Alberta witnessed the effects of climate change in a dramatic manner when a "perfect storm" of El Niño and global warming contributed to the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, which led to the evacuation of the oil-producing town at the heart of the tar sands industry.[59] The area has witnessed an increased frequency of wildfires, as Canada's wildfire season now starts a month earlier than it used to and the annual area burned is twice what it was in 1970.[60]

As to 2019, climate change has already increased wildfires frequency and power in Canada, especially in Alberta. "We are seeing climate change in action," says University of Alberta wildland fire Prof. Mike Flannigan. "The Fort McMurray fire was 1 1/2 to six times more likely because of climate change. The 2017 record-breaking B.C. fire season was seven to 11 times more likely because of climate change."[61].

British Columbia

The extreme weather events of greatest concern in British Columbia include heavy rain and snow falls, heat waves, and drought. They are linked to flooding and landslides, water shortages, forest fires, reduced air quality, as well as costs related to damage to property and infrastructure, business disruptions, and increased illness and mortality. In recent years, significant extreme events and climate impacts in BC have included:

  • the pine beetle epidemic, which resulted in 18 million hectares of dead trees and economic impacts for forest-dependent communities;[62]
  • 330,000 hectares of forest lost to forest fire in the 2010 fire season alone,[63] and the loss of 334 homes in the 2003 forest fire season;
  • flooding in 2010 leading to the destruction of the Bella Coola highway and evacuation of residents from Kingcome Inlet;[64] and
  • heat waves, including the one in the summer of 2009, which are associated with increases in heat stroke and respiratory illness.

BC has announced many ambitious policies to address climate change mitigation, particularly through its Climate Action Plan,[65] released in 2008. It has set legislated greenhouse gas reduction targets of 33% below 2007 levels by 2020 and 80% by 2050.[66] BC’s revenue neutral carbon tax is the first of its kind in North America. It was introduced at $10/tonne of CO2e in 2008 and has risen by $5/tonne annual increases until it reached $30/tonne in 2012, where the rate has remained. It is required in legislation that all revenues from the carbon tax are returned to British Columbians through tax cuts in other areas.[67]

BC’s provincial public sector organizations became the first in North America to be considered carbon neutral in 2010, partly by purchasing carbon offsets.[68][69] The Clean Energy Vehicles Program provides incentives for the purchase of approved clean energy vehicles and for charging infrastructure installation.[70] There has been action across sectors including financing options and incentives for building retrofits, a Forest Carbon Offset Protocol, a Renewable and Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and landfill gas management regulation.

BC’s GHG emissions have been going down, and in 2012 (based on 2010 data) BC declared it was within reach of meeting its interim target of a 6% reduction below 2007 levels by 2012. GHG emissions went down by 4.5% between 2007 and 2010, and consumption of all the main fossil fuels are down in BC as well while GDP and population have both been growing.[71]

In 2018 it was announced that the province "after stalling on sustained climate action for several years, admitted they could not meet their 2020 target", the 33% reduction target had stalled at 6.5%.[72] Provincially BC is the second-largest consumer of natural gas at 2.3 billion cubic feet per day.[73]

Ontario

Ontario is Canada’s most populated province [74] and, in 2010, had the second highest greenhouse gas emissions inventory in the country. In 1990, Ontario’s greenhouse gas emissions were 176 megatonnes (Mt) of CO2 equivalent. According to Canada’s 2012 National Inventory Report [75] Ontario’s emissions were 171 Mt in 2010, an amount that represented 25% of Canada’s total emissions for that year. Over the 20-year period between 1990 and 2010, Ontario’s emissions continued to increase until the mid-2000s. Emissions declined significantly in 2008-2009 due in large part to the economic recession. In 2010, Ontario emitted 12.95 tonnes per person,[76] compared with the Canadian average of 20.3 tonnes per person.[77]

In August 2007, the Ontario government released Go Green: Ontario’s Action Plan on Climate Change. The plan established three targets: a 6% reduction in emissions by 2014, 15% by 2020 and 80% by 2050. The government has committed to report annually on the actions it is taking to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change.[78] With the initiatives currently in place, the government projects it will achieve 90% of the reductions needed to meet its 2014 target, and only 60% of those needed to meet the 2020 target.[79]

The largest emissions reductions to date have come from the phase-out of coal-fired power generation by Ontario Power Generation. In August 2007, the government issued a regulation that required the end of coal burning at Ontario’s four remaining coal-fired power plants by the end of 2014.[80] Since 2003, emissions from these plants have dropped from 36.5 Mt to 4.2 Mt.[81] In January 2013, the government announced that coal will be completely phased out one year early, by the end of 2013.[82] The last coal generating station was closed on April 8, 2014 in Thunder Bay.[83]

Through the Green Energy and Green Economy Act, 2009[84] Ontario implemented a feed-in tariff to promote the development of renewable energy generation. Ontario is also a member of the Western Climate Initiative. In January 2013, a discussion paper was posted on the Environmental Registry seeking input on the development of a greenhouse gas emissions reduction program for industry.

Over the years, transportation emissions have continued to increase. Growing from 44.8 Mt in 1990 to 59.5 Mt in 2010, transportation is responsible for the largest amount of greenhouse gas emissions in the province. Efforts to reduce these emissions include investing in public transit and providing incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles.

The government also recognizes the need for climate change adaptation and, in April 2011, released Climate Ready: Ontario’s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 2011–2014.[85]

As required by the Environmental Bill of Rights, 1993, the Environmental Commissioner of Ontario does an independent review and reports annually to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario on the progress of activities in the province to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

On June 7, 2018, the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario under Doug Ford was elected to a majority government.[86][87] Since then there has been a great deal of controversy regarding the environmental policies of his government. Among the changes to environmental policy by Ford's government were the withdrawal of Ontario from the Western Climate Initiative emissions trading system, which had been implemented by the previous Liberal government, and eliminating the office of the Environmental Commissioner of Ontario, a non-partisan officer of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario charged with enforcing Ontario's Environmental Bill of Rights (EBR).[88] The Ford government released a report indicating that the duties of the Environmental Commissioner would be transferred to the Auditor General of Ontario.[89][90][91]Other criticisms levelled by Mike Schreiner of the Green Party of Ontario include cuts to the Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks as well as making unspecified changes to the Endangered Species Act.[88] Of all of Ford's policies, the abandoning of the Cap and Trade system and mounting a legal challenge to the federal government's carbon tax (which was imposed to replace Cap and Trade) have been the most controversial. Ford is spending $30M to fight the constitutionality of the federally imposed carbon tax, along with the provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. All three provinces involved have Progressive Conservative governments, the traditional nemesis of the Liberals. Ford has been criticised for not putting the money to better use and causing an unnecessary burden on taxpayers. The court ruled in favour of the federal government but the provinces are appealing the decision.[92] Ford has been very vocal about this and maintains that the carbon tax will cause a recession. Economists have studied the issue and do not agree, citing the example of British Columbia, which has had a carbon tax since 2008 causing no economic downturn for the province.[93] A December 2018 Ipsos-Reid poll was conducted to gauge the public's opinion of Ford's environmental policies. The poll results were as follows[94]:

  • Negative - 45%
  • Positive - 27%
  • Neutral - 28%

The federal minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada, Catherine McKenna states that the carbon tax has been shown to be the most economical way of reducing emissions.[93]

Quebec

Greenhouse gas emissions increased by 3.8% in Quebec between 1990 and 2007, to 85.7 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent before falling to 81.7 in 2015. At 9.9 tonnes per capita, Quebec's emissions are well below the Canadian average (20.1 tonnes) and accounted for 11.1% of Canada's total in 2015.[95].

Emissions in the electricity sector spiked in 2007, due to the operation of the TransCanada Energy combined cycle gas turbine in Becancour. The generating station, Quebec's largest source of greenhouse gas emissions that year, released 1,687,314 tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2007[96] or 72.1% of all emissions from the sector and 2% of total emissions. The plant was closed in 2008[97] in 2009[98] and in 2010.[99]

Between 1990—the reference year of the Kyoto Protocol—and 2006, Quebec's population grew by 9.2% and Quebec's GDP of 41.3%. The emission intensity relative to GDP declined from 28.1% during this period, dropping from 4,500 to 3,300 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per million dollars of gross domestic product (GDP).[100]

In May 2009, Quebec became the first jurisdiction in the Americas to impose an emissions cap after the Quebec National Assembly passed a bill capping emissions from certain sectors. The move was coordinated with a similar policy in the neighboring province of Ontario and reflects the commitment of both provinces as members of the Western Climate Initiative.[101]

On November 23, 2009, the Quebec government pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below the 1990 base year level by 2020, a goal similar to that adopted by the European Union. The government intends to achieve its target by promoting public transit, electric vehicles and intermodal freight transport. The plan also calls for the increased use of wood as a building material, energy recovery from biomass, and a land use planning reform.[102] As of 2015 the rate of emissions has been reduced by 8.8% [103]. In order to encourage electrification of the transportation sector, Quebec has introduced numerous policies to promote the purchase of electric vehicles, with the result that 9.8% of all new car sales in Quebec are electric vehicles.[104]

Impacts on forestry

According to Environment Canada’s 2011 annual report, there is evidence that some regional areas within the western Canadian boreal forest have increased by 2 °C since 1948.[105] The rate of the changing climate is leading to drier conditions in the boreal forest, which leads to a whole host of subsequent issues.[106] This leads to a challenge for the forestry industry to sustainably manage and conserve trees within boreal forest. Climate change will have a direct impact on the productivity of the boreal forest, as well as health and regeneration.[106] As a result of the rapidly changing climate, trees are migrating to higher latitudes and altitudes (northward), but some species may not be migrating fast enough to follow their climatic habitat.[107][108][109] Moreover, trees within the southern limit of their range may begin to show declines in growth.[110] Drier conditions are also leading to a shift from conifers to aspen in more fire and drought-prone areas.[106]

Assisted migration of tree species within the boreal forest is one tool that has been proposed and is currently under study.[111] It involves deliberately moving tree species to locations that may better climatically suit them in the future.[111][112] For species that may not be able to disperse easily, have long generation times or have small populations, this form of adaptative management and human intervention may help them survive in this rapidly changing climate.[111] Assisted migration may offer a potential option to lessen the risks that climate change poses to towards maintaining a sustainable industry, in terms of productivity and health.[113]

There may be benefits and/or consequences to applying assisted migration on wide scale in Canada.[109][111][113] Assisted migration may prevent the extinction of certain tree species, enable and conserve market-based goods such as wood products, and conserve processes and services of an ecosystem.[111] Unfortunately, assisted migration could result in competition between the already established trees with the introduced trees, breeding of the introduced trees with established trees or the disruption of key ecological processes. Any decision made on assisted migration to be implemented in the forestry industry will need continued and rely on informed research and long-term studies.[109][113]

Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps
Main article: Köppen climate classification
Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for Canada (1980-2016)
Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for Canada (2071-2100)

Statistics
Greenhouse gases emissions from International Panel on Climate Change sectors in Canada, 2005-2017[114]
in Mt CO2 equivalent Change 2005-2017 (%) Share in 2017 (%)
2005 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Energy (Stationary Combustion Sources) Public Electricity and Heat Generation 125 91 87 84 87 81 79 37% 11%
Petroleum Refining Industries 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 10% 3%
Oil and Gas Extraction 63 86 92 97 99 100 106 68% 15%
Mining 4.3 6.0 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.3 3.9 9% 1%
Manufacturing Industrie 48 44 45 45 44 42 43 10% 6%
Construction 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 13% 0%
Commercial & Institutional 33 29 30 31 30 30 31 6% 4%
Residential 46 42 44 46 43 39 41 11% 6%
Agriculture and forestry 2.2 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.7 68% 1%
Energy (Transport) Domestic Aviation 7.6 7.3 7.6 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7% 1%
Road Transportation 130 140 144 141 143 145 144 11% 20%
Railways 6.6 7.6 7.3 7.5 7.1 6.5 6.6 0% 1%
Domestic Navigation 6.4 5.6 5.2 4.8 4.7 3.6 4.4 31% 1%
Other Transportation 42 36 38 39 40 39 40 5% 6%
Energy (Fugitives Sources) 61 59 61 63 60 55 56 8% 8%
Total Energy Uses 595 578 589 594 592 575 583 2% 81%
Industrial processes and product use 56 58 55 53 47 55 54 4% 8%
Agriculture Enteric Fermentation 31 25 25 24 24 24 24 23% 3%
Manure Management 8,8 7,7 7,8 7,7 7,8 7,9 8 9% 1%
Agricultural Soils 19 22 24 23 24 24 25 32% 3%
Liming, Urea Application and Other Carbon-containing Fertilizers 1,4 2,3 2,7 2,5 2,6 2,5 2,5 79% 0%
Waste 20 18 18 19 19 19 19 5% 3%
Total Non-Energy Sources 136 133 132 130 124 133 133 2% 19%
Total GHG 730 711 722 723 722 708 716 2% 100%
Greenhouse gases emissions in Canada by economic sector, 1990-2017[114]
in Mt CO2 equivalent Change 1990-2017 (%) Share in 2017 (%)
1990 2005 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Oil and Gas 106 158 176 186 193 192 187 195 84% 27%
Electricity 94 119 84 81 78 81 76 74 21% 10%
Transportation 122 162 172 175 173 174 174 174 43% 24%
Heavy Industry 97 87 80 78 78 77 76 73 25% 10%
Buildings 74 86 86 86 88 86 82 85 15% 12%
Agriculture 57 72 70 72 71 71 72 72 26% 10%
Waste & Others 52 47 42 43 42 42 41 42 19% 6%
National GHG Total 602 730 711 722 723 722 708 716 19% 100.0%
Greenhouse gases emissions by Canadian province/territory, 1990-2017[114]
in Mt CO2 equivalent Change 1990-2017 (%) Share in 2017 (%)
1990 2005 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
 Newfoundland and Labrador 9,4 9,9 9,4 9,4 10 11 11 10 6% 1,40%
 Prince Edward Island 1,9 2 2,1 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,8 1,8 5% 0,25%
 Nova Scotia 20 23 19 18 16 17 16 16 20% 2,24%
 New Brunswick 16 20 17 15 14 14 15 14 13% 1,96%
 Quebec 86 86 80 80 78 78 78 78 9% 10,92%
 Ontario 180 204 169 168 166 165 162 159 12% 22,27%
 Manitoba 18 20 20 21 21 21 21 22 22% 3,08%
 Saskatchewan 44 68 71 73 76 79 76 78 77% 10,92%
 Alberta 173 231 261 271 276 275 264 273 58% 38,24%
 British Columbia 52 63 60 61 60 59 61 62 19% 8,68%
 Nunavut 0,5 0,5 0,6 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0% 0,07%
 Northwest Territories n/a 1,6 1,5 1,3 1,5 1,7 1,6 1,2 n/a 0,17%
 Yukon n/a 0,4 0,5 0,7 0,7 0,6 0,6 0,6 n/a 0,08%
Canada[note 1] 602 730 711 722 723 722 708 714 19% 100%

See also

Notes and references

Notes

  1. Some emissions are only reported at the national level.

References

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