Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election
In the run up to the next Scottish Parliament election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Scotland.
The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 5 May 2016, to the present day. The next election is scheduled for 6 May 2021, unless a snap election is called.
Constituency polling
The opinion polls below are to gauge voting intentions for the 73 single member constituency seats which are elected through using the first past the post electoral system.
| Date(s) | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | Green | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3–5 Oct | Survation/Scottish National Party | 1,013 | 44% | 24% | 23% | 8% | N/A | N/A | 20% |
| 28 Sep-4 Oct | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,024 | 41% | 26% | 21% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 15% |
| 28 Sep - 2 Oct | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,036 | 43% | 24% | 23% | 9% | N/A | 2% | 19% |
| 5–10 July | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 44% | 24% | 21% | 9% | N/A | N/A | 20% |
| 21–27 June | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,018 | 41% | 27% | 22% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 14% |
| 8–13 June | Panelbase | 1,021 | 40% | 28% | 24% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 12% |
| 1–5 June | YouGov/The Times | 1,075 | 41% | 27% | 22% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 14% |
| 23–28 March | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,037 | 40% | 28% | 22% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 12% |
| 24–28 January | Survation/Daily Record | 1,019 | 42% | 25% | 25% | 6% | N/A | 2% | 17% |
| 12–16 January | YouGov/The Times | 1,002 | 38% | 26% | 23% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 12% |
| 2017 | |||||||||
| 1–5 December | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,006 | 39% | 24% | 28% | 7% | N/A | 2% | 11% |
| 27–30 November | Survation/Daily Record | 1,017 | 39% | 24% | 25% | 8% | N/A | 3% | 14% |
| 18 November | Richard Leonard becomes leader of the Scottish Labour Party[1] | ||||||||
| 2–5 October | YouGov/The Times | 1,135 | 42% | 25% | 25% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 17% |
| 8–12 September | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,016 | 42% | 26% | 25% | 7% | N/A | 2% | 16% |
| 31 Aug–7 Sep | Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 1,021 | 42% | 28% | 22% | 6% | 2% | <1% | 14% |
| 8 June | United Kingdom general election, 2017 | ||||||||
| 9–14 March | YouGov/The Times | 1,028 | 51% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 27% |
| 2016 | |||||||||
| 24–29 November | YouGov/The Times | 1,134 | 48% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 23% |
| 28 Sep–4 Oct | BMG Research | 1,010 | 51% | 21% | 18% | 7% | N/A | 3% | 30% |
| 29–31 August | YouGov/The Times | 1,039 | 52% | 21% | 16% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 31% |
| 24–28 June | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,055 | 50% | 21% | 18% | 8% | N/A | 4% | 29% |
| 5 May | Parliamentary Election Result | – | 46.5% | 22.0% | 22.6% | 7.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 23.9% |
Regional polling
The opinion polls below are to gauge voting intentions for the 56 regional list seats which are elected using the D'Hondt formula.
| Date(s) | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Con | Lab | Green | Lib Dem | UKIP | SSP | Other | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5 Oct | Survation/Scottish National Party | 1,013 | 40% | 25% | 22% | 4% | 8% | N/A | N/A | 2% | 15% | |
| 28 Sep-4 Oct | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,024 | 35% | 26% | 20% | 7% | 8% | 2% | N/A | 1% | 9% | |
| 28 Sep - 2 Oct | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,036 | 32% | 21% | 23% | 10% | 8% | 5% | N/A | 0% | 9% | |
| 5–10 July | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 33% | 19% | 21% | 11% | 10% | 5% | N/A | N/A | 12% | |
| 21–27 June | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,018 | 36% | 27% | 22% | 6% | 7% | 1% | N/A | <1% | 9% | |
| 8–13 June | Panelbase | 1,021 | 36% | 26% | 23% | 7% | 6% | 1% | N/A | 0% | 10% | |
| 1–5 June | YouGov/The Times | 1,075 | 32% | 26% | 21% | 9% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 6% | |
| 24–28 January | Survation/Daily Record | 1,019 | 33% | 23% | 23% | 9% | 8% | 3% | N/A | 1% | 10% | |
| 12–16 January | YouGov/The Times | 1,002 | 32% | 25% | 22% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 2% | <1% | 7% | |
| 2017 | ||||||||||||
| 1–5 December | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,006 | 32% | 21% | 24% | 10% | 10% | 3% | N/A | 1% | 8% | |
| 27–30 November | Survation/Daily Record | 1,017 | 33% | 22% | 25% | 8% | 8% | 3% | N/A | <1% | 8% | |
| 18 November | Richard Leonard becomes leader of the Scottish Labour Party[1] | |||||||||||
| 2–5 October | YouGov/The Times | 1,135 | 35% | 23% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 11% | |
| 8–12 September | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,016 | 31% | 21% | 25% | 9% | 10% | 3% | N/A | 0% | 6% | |
| 8 June | United Kingdom general election, 2017 | |||||||||||
| 9–14 March | YouGov/The Times | 1,028 | 40% | 25% | 14% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1%[lower-alpha 1] | 2% | 15% | |
| 2016 | ||||||||||||
| 24–29 November | YouGov/The Times | 1,134 | 39% | 24% | 14% | 11% | 6% | 4% | 1%[lower-alpha 1] | 1% | 15% | |
| 28 Sep–4 Oct | BMG Research | 1,010 | 43% | 20% | 16% | 8% | 7% | 3% | N/A | 1% | 23% | |
| 29–31 August | YouGov/The Times | 1,039 | 45% | 21% | 15% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 0%[lower-alpha 1] | 0% | 24% | |
| 24–28 June | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,055 | 41% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 7% | 4% | N/A | 1% | 20% | |
| 5 May | Parliamentary Election Result | – | 41.7% | 22.9% | 19.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% [lower-alpha 2] | 2.5% | 18.8% | |
Notes
- 1 2 3 Question asked voters about RISE, an electoral alliance of which the Scottish Socialist Party was affiliated to, instead of the Scottish Socialist Party themselves.
- ↑ The vote share is for RISE, an electoral alliance of which the Scottish Socialist Party was affiliated to, instead of the Scottish Socialist Party themselves.
References
- 1 2 "Richard Leonard to lead Scottish Labour". BBC News. 2017-11-18. Retrieved 2017-11-18.
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