Montenegrin parliamentary election, 2016
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| Turnout | 73.33% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Parliamentary elections were held in Montenegro on 16 October 2016.
Background
Protests against incumbent Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic occurred in the preceding year over issues ranging from NATO membership to electoral fraud.
Electoral system
The 81 seats of the Parliament of Montenegro are elected in a single nationwide constituency by closed list proportional representation. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method with a 3% electoral threshold. However, minority groups that account for at least 15% of the population in a district are given an exemption that lowers the electoral threshold to 0.7% if their list fails to cross the 3% threshold. For ethnic Croats, if no list representing the population passes the 0.7% threshold, the list with the most votes will win one seat if it receives more than 0.35% of the vote.[1]
Campaign
On 31 August 2016, the Democratic Serb Party (DSS) decided to sign an agreement with Democratic Front Alliance,[2] as did the far-left Yugoslav Communist Party (JKP)[3] and right-wing Democratic Party of Unity (DSJ).
The Socialist People's Party (SNP), United Reform Action (URA) and DEMOS agreed to form a pre-election alliance under the name Key Coalition,[4] with Miodrag Lekić as leader.[5]
On 8 September 2016 the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) decided to run independently, with two Liberal Party (LP) representatives on their electoral list.[6]
Electoral lists
| # | List name | Leader | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albanians Decisively - FORCA, DUA, AA | Genci Nimanbegu | M |
| 2 | SDP - Ranko Krivokapić - Country for everyone! | Ranko Krivokapić | |
| 3 | Albanian Coalition with One Goal - DP, DS, GI and Perspective | Gëzim Hajdinaga | M |
| 4 | Alternative Montenegro | Vesko Pejak | |
| 5 | Positive Montenegro - Darko Pajović - Because we love Montenegro | Darko Pajović | |
| 6 | Safe step! DPS - Milo Đukanović | Milo Đukanović | |
| 7 | Croatian Civic Initiative - HGI from the heart | Adrijan Vuksanović | M |
| 8 | Mr Aleksa Bečić - Democrats - Victories, not divisions. | Aleksa Bečić | |
| 9 | Key Coalition - DEMOS, SNP, URA - The best for Montenegro! | Miodrag Lekić | |
| 10 | Serb Party - Prof. dr Milovan Živković | Milovan Živković | |
| 11 | Party of Pensioners, Disabled and Social Justice | Smajo Šabotić | |
| 12 | List of Democratic Alliance of Albanians | Nikola Camaj | M |
| 13 | Democratic Front - Either us, or him | Andrija Mandić | |
| 14 | Bosniak Party - Rafet Husović - Our strength | Ervin Ibrahimović | M |
| 15 | Bosniak Democratic Community in Montenegro - Hazbija Kalač | Hazbija Kalač | M |
| 16 | Social Democrats of Montenegro - Consistently | Ivan Brajović | |
| 17 | Party of Serb Radicals - Montenegro in safe hands. | Aleksandar Janković | |
| Source: DIK | |||
M — National minority list
Opinion polls
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty. The threshold for a party to elect members is 3%.
| Date | Polling Firm/Source | DPS | SDP | DF | Key Coalition | DCG | SD | PCG | BS | Others | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | DEMOS | URA | |||||||||||
| 8–21 Jun 2016 | CEDEM | 43.1 | 4.2 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 32 |
| 29 May–5 Jun 2016 | NSPM | 29.2 | 3.1 | 22.1 | 6.1 | 5 | 2.4 | 5 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 16.9 | |
| Apr 2016 | Ipsos | 45 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 30 | |
| 22 Feb 2016 | DAMAR | 40.9 | 4.3 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 28.7 |
| 9–18 Dec 2015 | Ipsos | 45 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 32 | |
| 14–19 Nov 2015 | DAMAR | 41.7 | 4 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 11.4 | 4 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 30.2 |
| 30 Oct–8 Nov 2015 | CEDEM | 45.1 | 4.6 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 34.9 |
| 8–16 Oct 2015 | Ipsos | 45 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 32 |
| 1–6 Sep 2015 | DAMAR | 40.3 | 3.8 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 3.5 | 10.1 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 5 | 4.8 | 30.1 |
| 12–24 July 2015 | CEDEM | 42.7 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 14.4 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 28.3 |
| 5 May 2015 | Ipsos | 42 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 2.9 | 3 | 7.1 | 26 | |
| 14 Oct 2012 | Parliamentary elections | 45.6 | 22.8 | 11.1 | Did not exist | 8.2 | 4.17 | 8.1 | 22.8 | ||||
Coup plot
A group of 20 Serbian and Montenegrin citizens were arrested on election day. Fourteen remain in custody (as of 12 November 2016), including former head of Serbian Gendarmery Bratislav Dikić, and some that fought for the pro-Russian side in the War in Donbass. On 6 November, the Montenegrin prosecutor Milivoje Katnić has stated that there is no evidence of Russian state involvement, but that two Russian nationalists organized the plot.[7] Two GRU agents, Vladimir Popov and Eduard Shishmakov, have been tried in absentia.[8] Russian citizens in Serbia, monitoring Prime Minister Đukanović, had been supervised by the Special prosecution, which prevented them from realizing the plan. The Serbian authorities found 125,000€ in cash and uniforms, and deported an unknown number of Russian citizens. At the same time, Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić told that there had been increased activity by a number of different intelligence agencies, 'from both the East and the West', against Serbian interests, and that members of these agencies had been apprehended. The Montenegrin prosecutor said that the intention was to have 500 people enter Montenegro on election night to "cause violence", and hire assassin snipers to murder Prime Minister Đukanović – to stop Montenegro from entering NATO and prevent Russia from losing an ally in the Balkans. All opposition parties claimed that the coup attempt was staged by the Government of Montenegro and DPS as a publicity stunt to improve their electoral results, and denounced elections as irregular, refusing to accept the results.[9][10][11]
Results
| Party | Votes | % | Seats | +/– |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party of Socialists | 158,490 | 41.41 | 36 | –3 |
| Democratic Front | 77,784 | 20.32 | 18 | –2 |
| Key Coalition | 42,295 | 11.05 | 9 | 0 |
| Democratic Montenegro | 38,327 | 10.01 | 8 | New |
| Social Democratic Party | 20,011 | 5.23 | 4 | –2 |
| Social Democrats | 12,472 | 3.26 | 2 | New |
| Bosniak Party | 12,089 | 3.16 | 2 | –1 |
| Positive Montenegro | 5,062 | 1.32 | 0 | –7 |
| Albanians Decisively | 4,854 | 1.27 | 1 | 0 |
| Albanian Coalition | 3,394 | 0.89 | 0 | -1 |
| Croatian Civic Initiative | 1,801 | 0.47 | 1 | 0 |
| Democratic Alliance of Albanians | 1,542 | 0.40 | 0 | New |
| Serb Party | 1,201 | 0.31 | 0 | New |
| Bosniak Democratic Community in Montenegro | 1,140 | 0.30 | 0 | New |
| Alternative Montenegro | 878 | 0.23 | 0 | New |
| Party of Serb Radicals | 693 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 |
| Party of Pensioners, Disabled and Social Justice | 672 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 |
| Invalid/blank votes | 5,513 | – | – | – |
| Total | 388,220 | 100 | 81 | 0 |
| Registered voters/turnout | 528,817 | 73.41 | – | – |
| Source: DIK | ||||
Seats
|
Government (42) |
Opposition (39) |
Aftermath
Following the events which surrounded the elections, the entire opposition started a collective boycott of all parliamentary sittings. In mid-February 2017, Montenegro’s opposition announced it would boycott local elections in the country’s second city, Niksic, over the government's bid to prosecute two members of Parliament, Andrija Mandić and Milan Knežević of the pro-Russian opposition Democratic Front alliance, who had been charged with involvement in an coup plot allegedly planned for election day.[12]
References
- ↑ Electoral system IPU
- ↑ Demokratska srpska stranka pristupila Demokratskom frontu Vijesti, 31 Aug 2016
- ↑ Komunisti se pridružili DF-u RTCG, 3 August 2016
- ↑ KOALICIJA DEMOSA SNP-A I URA USAGLASILA VIZUELNI IDENTITET Vijesti, 8 September 2016
- ↑ Odlučeno: SNP, Demos i URA u koaliciji Vijesti, 31 August 2016
- ↑ Na listi DPS-a i dva predstavnika Liberalne partije Vijesti, 8 September 2016
- ↑ "Montenegrin prosecutor says Russian nationalists behind alleged coup plot". The Guardian. 6 November 2016. Retrieved 11 July 2018.
- ↑ Bajrović, Reuf; Garčević, Vesko; Kramer, Richard. "Hanging by a Thread: Russia's Policy of Destabilization in Montenegro" (PDF). Foreign Policy Research Institute. Retrieved 11 July 2018.
- ↑ "Case "Coup d'etat" and Đukanović's "old recipe"".
- ↑ "Montenegro prosecutor Katnić: Russian nationalists behind alleged coup plot".
- ↑ "Common decision: Opposition does not recognise election results".
- ↑ Montenegro Opposition to Boycott Poll Over ‘Coup’ Claims Balkan Insight, 15 February 2017.