Next Montenegrin parliamentary election
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This lists parties that currently hold seats. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Parliamentary elections are due to be held in Montenegro no later than October 2020, although they may be held earlier if a snap election is called.
Background
Following the events which surrounded last elections, the entire opposition started a collective boycott of all parliamentary sittings. As of January 2017, 39 of the 81 MPs were boycotting parliament, requesting new elections to be held no later than 2018, when the next presidential elections are scheduled.[1][2] The largest opposition subject, Democratic Front (DF), decides to end the boycott and return to parliament in December 2017, as did newly formed, United Montenegro (UCG).[3] The Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Demos both decides to end the boycott and return to parliament, after poor results in May 2018 local elections, as did Socialist People's Party (SNP). Leaving Democratic Montenegro (DCG) and United Reform Action (URA), who remaining in a boycott with the same demands.
Electoral system
The 81 seats of the Parliament of Montenegro are elected in a single nationwide constituency by closed list proportional representation. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method with a 3% electoral threshold. However, minority groups that account for at least 15% of the population in a district are given an exemption that lowers the electoral threshold to 0.7% if their list fails to cross the 3% threshold. For ethnic Croats, if no list representing the population passes the 0.7% threshold, the list with the most votes will win one seat if it receives more than 0.35% of the vote.[4]
Opinion polls
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty. The threshold for a party to elect members is 3%.
| Date | Polling Firm/Source | DPS | DCG | DF | Demos | SNP | URA | SDP | SD | BS | Others | Lead | Gov. | Opp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2018 | CeDem | 43 | 21.2 | 12.6 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 4 | 1.2 | 2 | 4.8 | 21.8 | 48.6 | 50.1 |
| Dec 2017 | CeDem | 39.9 | 21.3 | 13 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 18.6 | 46.1 | 49.7 |
| Oct 2017 | Ipsos | 40 | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 47 | 52 |
| Oct 2017 | DeFacto | 38.0 | 26.1 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 41.4 | 52.0 |
| July 2017 | CeDem | 39.0 | 19.9 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 19.1 | 45.3 | 50.2 |
| Dec 2016 | CeDem | 36.8 | 12.2 | 21.0 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 15.8 | 45.2 | 53.0 |
| Oct 2016 | Election | 41.4 | 10.1 | 20.3 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 21.1 | 48.9 | 46.7 | ||
References
- ↑ Novi izbori kao uslov opozicije za povratak u Parlament, Radio Slobodna Evropa, 30 Nov. 2016
- ↑ Ponoviti izbore najkasnije do 2018., Mondo.me, 7 Feb. 2017
- ↑ DF prekida bojkot, u Skupštinu se vraća i UCG, Al Jazeera
- ↑ Electoral system IPU