Assam Legislative Assembly election, 2016

Assam Legislative Assembly election, 2016
All 126 seats in the Legislature of Assam
64 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 84.72%

  Majority party Minority party Third party
 
Leader Sarbananda Sonowal Tarun Gogoi Badruddin Ajmal
Party BJP INC AIUDF
Alliance NDA UPA Grand Alliance
Leader since 2011 1976 2005
Leader's seat Majuli Titabar Salmara South
(lost)
Last election 26 78 18
Seats before 27 79 18
Seats won 86 26 13
Seat change Increase 60 Decrease 53 Decrease 5
Popular vote 7,035,724
(BJP+AGP+BPF)		 5,238,655
(INC only)		 2,207,945
(AIUDF only)
Percentage 41.9 31.0 13.0
Chief Minister before election

Tarun Gogoi
INC

 Elected Chief Minister

Sarbananda Sonowal
BJP

The Assam Legislative Assembly Election of 2016 was held in two phases, on 4 and 11 April 2016, to elect members of the 126 constituencies in Assam, a state in North-eastern India.[1] The overall voter turnout was 84.72%, which set a new record for Assam.[2][3] The turnout was an increase from the 2011 Assembly election figure of 75%.[4]

The counting of votes and results declaration was completed on 19 May 2016. The election brought a change of power as the Indian National Congress (INC), which had formed the government under Tarun Gogoi since 2001, lost its majority to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, lit "Indian People's Party") led by Sarbananda Sonowal.

Assam

Background

The prior Assam assembly ended on 5 June 2016.[5] The full bench of the Election Commission headed by Syed Nasim Ahmad Zaidi visited Assam on 21 December 2015.[6] Voter-verified paper audit trails were introduced in 10 constituencies (approximately 2400 polling booths) in Assam assembly polls.[7] These included the four assembly constituencies in Kamrup Metro district: Dispur, Jalukbari, Gauhati East and Gauhati West.[8] 250 polling stations were made model polling stations.[9]

Electoral process

An update to the National Register of Citizens of India (NRC) was to be completed by 1 January 2016, monitored by the Supreme Court of India.[10][11] By September 2015, the first phase was completed; over 66.90 lakh (6,690,000) households submitted forms linking themselves to either the NRC of 1951 or any of the electoral rolls prior to 24 March 1971. It was to be followed by verifying the applications.

The effort was intended to detect and deport the illegal migrants who came from neighbouring Bangladesh on or after 25 March 1971.[12] Since 1985, Foreigners' Tribunals have declared over 38,000 persons in Assam as illegal migrants. Nearly 1.5 lakh (150,000) names in Assam's electoral rolls carry the prefix "D" for "Doubtful" citizenship status.[13] The Supreme Court directed the Assam Government to complete the final NRC by 1 March 2016.[14][15] In May 2015, the historic India–Bangladesh land swap deal was signed, exchanging long-standing territorial enclaves and simplifying the border.[16]

According to the draft electoral rolls published in October 2015, the total number of voters in Assam stand at 1.92 crore (19.2 million). The Election Commission said that final electoral rolls would be published by 11 January 2016.

Religion data

According to the 2011 census, 61.5% were Hindus, 34.22% were Muslims.[17][18] Christian minorities (3.7%) are mostly among some of the Scheduled Castes and Tribes (SC/ST) population.[19] The Scheduled Tribe population (both ST(Plains) and ST(Hills) combined) in Assam is around 13% of which the Bodo people(an indigenous Assamese community) account for 40% and the Scheduled Caste population is about 7.4% of which the Kaibarta and Jal Keot(both indigenous Assamese communities) combined account for about 36%.[20]

Out of 32 districts of Assam, 11 are Muslim majority according to the 2011 census.[21] The districts are Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta, Morigaon, Nagaon, Hojai, Karimganj, South Salmara–Mankachar, Hailakandi, Darrang and Bongaigaon.[22][23][24] Bodos have a population share of 12% and the Kaibarta and Jal Keot have a total share of about 10% (all of which are a part of the indigenous Assamese community).[25] The share of the indigenous Assamese communities in Assam was about 47% in the 2001 census which has reduced to about 40-45% in 2016 as predicted by experts. Indigenous Assamese Muslims, also known as Khilonjia Muslims, include ethnic groups such as Goria and Moria, and are estimated to be around 40 lakhs in population out of a total 1 crore (4 million out of 10 million) Muslims in Assam.[26]

Campaign

In November 2015, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President Amit Shah held a party workers' rally in Dibrugarh in Upper Assam Division.[27] Union Minister and Lakhimpur MP Sarbananda Sonowal was made Assam BJP chief to head their election committee.[28] Sonowal found the situation of illegal immigration from Bangladesh "very alarming".[29] (Sonowal had led an effort to have the controversial Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal) (IMDT) Act struck down by the Supreme court of India in December 2006, making deportations easier.)[30] Himanta Biswa Sarma, a state Congress heavyweight joined BJP.[31] BJP has aimed for 'Mission 84' in Assam.[32][33] BJP led in 69 assembly constituencies in the Lok Sabha elections 2014 by winning 7 Lok Sabha seats in Assam.[34] For the first time, the BJP had contested the Bodoland Territorial Council elections, and won a seat.[35]

In December 2015, Indian National Congress (INC) Vice-President Rahul Gandhi visited Assam where he accused Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS, lit "National Volunteer Organisation") workers of not letting him enter Barpeta Satra temple in Barpeta district.[36] RSS, a right-wing Hindu-nationalist paramilitary group widely regarded as the parent organisation of BJP, denied the charge. Gandhi announced that Tarun Gogoi would be the chief minister candidate of INC.[37] Demand was growing for giving scheduled tribe (ST) status to six communities – Tai Ahoms, Koch Rajbongshis, Moran, Motok, Sootea and 36 tea tribes (the descendants of tea garden workers settled by British in the state from Chotanagpur plateau in the mid-19th century).[38][39]

In November 2015, nine members of the legislative assembly left the INC and joined BJP.[40] Assam Governor PB Acharya made a controversial statement that Hindustan is only for Hindus.[41] Ex-United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) rebels announced that they would contest Assam polls.[42] On 26 December 2015, BJP's Assam unit launched its 'Assam Nirman' initiative, seeking public opinion to prepare a vision document for development in Assam.[43]

On 28 December 2015, Smriti Irani visited Barak Valley in Assam and accused the Tarun Gogoi government of not doing enough for women's safety.[44][45] Gogoi accused the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government of stalling tactics on granting citizenship to refugees from Bangladesh, claiming that they had been persecuted there.[46] Gogoi said external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj met with businessmen in Assam during her visit instead of talking about the problems and issues confronting the state.[47]

In January 2016, the Gogoi government announced rice prices at Rs 2 per kilogramme and to build all-religion bhawans.[48][49] The Assam INC President ruled-out any alliance with All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) or Asom Gana Parishad (AGP, lit "Assam Peoples Association") parties.[50][51] Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh visited Assam on 3 January 2016 and said the fencing along the Indo-Bangladesh border would be completed by December 2016.[52][53] A delegation of the All Assam Students Union (AASU) met Singh and visited the border areas. Rajnath Singh visited Dhubri district and expressed dissatisfaction with the fencing work there. He said that a feasibility study and two pilot projects were underway in the Dhubri sector of the riverine border.[54] Gogoi said that 97.32% of the border fencing work in Karimganj and Dhubri was complete and asked the Central Government to take up a pilot project involving technological solutions to plug the riverine border.[55][56]

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a rally in Kokrajhar on 19 January 2016, after his visit to Sikkim on 18 January 2016.[57] Modi formally announced the alliance of Bodoland People's Front (BPF) with BJP in Assam.[58]

On 28 January, the BJP Parliamentary Board announced Sarbananda Sonowal as their Chief Ministerial candidate of Assam.[59] Union minister of state for commerce and industry Nirmala Sitharaman accused Gogoi of spreading misinformation on the suspension of the North East Industrial and Investment Promotion Policy (NEIIPP), 2007.[60] Ethnic groups of Assam sought ULFA pro-talks faction headed by founding general secretary Anup Chetia to help them receive ST designation.[61][62]

Modi arrived on 5 February to first attend the 85th conference of the Srimanta Sankaradeva Sangha at the erstwhile Ahom capital of Sivasagar. Then he addressed a rally at Moran.[63][64][65] Modi dedicated the Assam gas cracker project at Dibrugarh[66] and inaugurated the 2016 South Asian Games in Guwahati on 5 February.[67]

On 2 March, the BJP announced its alliance with AGP.[68] AGP was given 24 seats.[69] Gogoi announced a special package of Rs 3,000 cr (Rs 30 billion) for Barak Valley.[70] Gandhi visited Assam for two days, 4–5 March 2016, and addressed public meetings in Silchar and Nagaon.[71] On 6 March 2016, INC allied with Bodo-heartland-based United People's Party in a strategy to counter BJP's alliance with BPF.[72]

On 10 March, BJP declared candidates for the first phase of Assam elections.[73] Out of 126 Assembly constituencies, BJP contested 84 constituencies and left 42 to its four National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies: AGP (24), BPF (16), Rabha Jatiya Aikya Manch (1) and Tiwa Jatiya Aikya Manch (1). BJP gave tickets to two ex-millitants including Bhaskar Sarma (who was accused of secret killings). On 16 March 2016, Sarbananda Sonowal filed his nomination for the Majuli (ST) assembly seat.[74][75] Modi addressed a rally in Majuli on 23 March 2016.[76] INC released its first list of 65 candidates on 15 March 2016;[77] the second list of 57 candidates was announced on 21 March 2016.[78][79] INC contested 122 seats while its ally United People's Party contested the remaining 4 seats.[80] BJP's Himanta Biswa Sarma filed nomination papers from Jalukbari on 21 March 2016.[81] AIUDF contested around 76 seats while its allies in Assam – Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Janata Dal (United) (JD[U]) – contest 12 seats each.[82] AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal ran for South Salmara seat, while Gogoi ran for the Titabar seat against BJP MP Kamakhya Prasad Tasa.[83][84]

On 12 February 2016, the Election Commission of India announced that 10 assembly constituencies in Assam will have 2300 voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) machines attached along with electronic voting machines (EVMs).[85]

Schedule

The dates of the election were announced on 4 March 2016. (In previous elections, all 140 constituencies went to polls on the same day.)[86]

The polling was held in two phases, on 4 and 11 April 2016. The counting was scheduled on 19 May 2016 for both phases.[87]

Schedule of polling and results[87]
Phase 14 April 2016
Phase 211 April 2016
Counting of votes and result19 May 2016
Assembly constituencies of Assam having VVPAT facility with EVMs[87]
SilcharDhubriBongaigaon
Goalpara EastJalukbariDispur
Gauhati EastGuahati WestTezpur
Jorhat

Opinion polls

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/Agency Sample size
INC BJP+ AIUDF Other
April 2016 [88] India TV-C Voter NA 53
55
12
6
March 2016 [89] Nielsen NA 36
78
10
2
March 2016 [90] AVC NA 40
48-54
25
0
January 2016 [91][92][93] India TV-C-Voter NA 44
57
19
6

Exit polls

Agency INC+ BJP+ AIUDF Others Ref.[94]
News Nation 47-51 63-67 7-11 NA [95]
C Voter 41 57 18 10 [96]
Chanakya 27 90 9 NA [96]
ABP Nielsen 33 81 10 2 [96]
NDTV Poll of Polls 37 73 12 4 [96]

Voting

Voter turnout was 84.72%.[97] 87.03% polling was recorded in the second phase, the highest in Assam's history.[98][99] One person was killed by police in Assam.[100] 189 EVMs were replaced in the final phase due to technical issues.[101] A total of 1,064 candidates contested the elections – 122 from INC, 89 from BJP, 74 from AIUDF, 30 from AGP, 13 from the BPF, 15 from CPI, 19 from CPM, 205 others and 497 Independents. The total number of polling stations in Assam was 24,890, spread across 50 election districts.

Result

FlagPartyAllianceContestedWon+/-Votes%
 style="text-align:left;"Bharatiya Janata PartyNDA8960Increase554,992,18529.5
 Asom Gana ParishadNDA3014Increase51,377,4828.1
 Bodoland People's FrontNDA1312Steady666,0573.9
Rabha Jatiya Aikya ManchNDA10Steady
Tiwa Jatiya Aikya ManchNDA10Steady
 Indian National CongressUPA126Decrease535,238,65531.0
United People's PartyUPA40Steady
 All India United Democratic FrontG.A7413Decrease52,207,94513.0
 Rashtriya Janata DalG.A120Steady
 Janata Dal (United)G.A120Steady
 Communist Party of India (Marxist)Left190Steady93,5080.6
 Communist Party of IndiaLeft150Steady37,2430.2
 Independents1Decrease21,867,53211.0
Total126

Victorious candidates

Sl NoConstituency
Name		Constituency
Number		Member of Legislative AssemblyPolitical Party
1Abhayapuri North34Abdul Hai NagoriIndian National Congress
2Abhayapuri South35Ananta Kumar MaloAll India United Democratic Front
3Algapur8Nizam Uddin ChoudhuryAll India United Democratic Front
4Amguri103Prodip HazarikaAsom Gana Parishad
5Badarpur5Jamal Uddin AhmedIndian National Congress
6Baghbor45Sherman Ali AhmedIndian National Congress
7Baithalangso20Mansing RongpiIndian National Congress
8Barama62Maneswar BrahmaBodoland People's Front
9Barchalla72Ganesh Kumar LimbuBharatiya Janata Party
10Barhampur87Prafulla Kumar MahantaAsom Gana Parishad
11Barkhetry60Narayan DekaBharatiya Janata Party
12Barkhola14Kishor NathBharatiya Janata Party
13Barpeta43Gunindra Nath DasAsom Gana Parishad
14Batadroba84Angoorlata DekaBharatiya Janata Party
15Behali77Ranjit DuttaBharatiya Janata Party
16Bhabanipur41Abul Kalam AzadAll India United Democratic Front
17Bihpuria109Debananda HazarikaBharatiya Janata Party
18Bijni33Kamal Singh NarzaryBodoland People's Front
19Bilasipara East27Ashok Kumar SinghiBharatiya Janata Party
20Bilasipara West26Hafiz Bashir AhmedAll India United Democratic Front
21Biswanath76Promod BorthakurBharatiya Janata Party
22Bokajan17Numal MominBharatiya Janata Party
23Bokakhat93Atul BoraAsom Gana Parishad
24Boko SC48Nandita DasIndian National Congress
25Bongaigaon32Phani Bhusan ChoudhuryAsom Gana Parishad
26Chabua121Binod HazarikaBharatiya Janata Party
27Chapaguri63Thaneswar BasumataryBodoland People's Front
28Chaygaon49Rekibuddin AhmedIndian National Congress
29Chenga47Sukur Ali AhmedIndian National Congress
30Dalgaon68Ilias AliIndian National Congress
31Dergaon97Bhabendra Nath BharaliAsom Gana Parishad
32Dhakuakhana112Naba Kumar DoleyBharatiya Janata Party
33Dharmapur61Chandra Mohan PatowaryBharatiya Janata Party
34Dhekiajuli71Ashok SinghalBharatiya Janata Party
35Dhemaji113Dr Ranuj PeguBharatiya Janata Party
36Dhing83Aminul IslamAll India United Democratic Front
37Dholai11Parimal SuklabaidyaBharatiya Janata Party
38Dhubri23Najrul HoqueAll India United Democratic Front
39Dibrugarh116Prasanta PhukanBharatiya Janata Party
40Digboi123Suren PhukanBharatiya Janata Party
41Diphu19Sum RonghangBharatiya Janata Party
42Dispur52Atul BoraBharatiya Janata Party
43Doom dooma125Durga BhumijIndian National Congress
44Dudhnai36Dipak RabhaBharatiya Janata Party
45Duliajan118Terash GowallaBharatiya Janata Party
46Gauhati East53Siddhartha BhattacharyaBharatiya Janata Party
47Gauhati West54Ramendra Narayan KalitaAsom Gana Parishad
48Gauripur24Nijanur RahmanAll India United Democratic Front
49Goalpara East37Abdul Kalam Rasheed AlamIndian National Congress
50Goalpara West38Abdur Rasheed MandalIndian National Congress
51Gohpur78Utpal BorahBharatiya Janata Party
52Golaghat95Ajanta NeogIndian National Congress
53Golakganj25Ashwini Roy SarkarBharatiya Janata Party
54Gossaigaon28Majendra NarzaryBodoland People's Front
55Haflong16Bir Bhadra HagjerBharatiya Janata Party
56Hailakandi6Anwar Hussain LaskarAll India United Democratic Front
57Hajo55Suman HaripriyaBharatiya Janata Party
58Hojai91Shiladitya DevBharatiya Janata Party
59Howraghat18Joyram EnglengBharatiya Janata Party
60Jagiroad79Pijush HazarikaBharatiya Janata Party
61Jaleswar39Sahab Uddin AhmedAll India United Democratic Front
62Jalukbari51Himanta Biswa SarmaBharatiya Janata Party
63Jamunamukh90Abdur Rahim AjmalAll India United Democratic Front
64Jania44Abdul KhalequeIndian National Congress
65Jonai114Bhubon PeguIndependent
66Jorhat98Hitendra Nath GoswamiBharatiya Janata Party
67Kalaigaon65Maheswar BaroBodoland People's Front
68Kaliabor89Keshab MahantaAsom Gana Parishad
69Kamalpur56Satyabrat KalitaAsom Gana Parishad
70Karimganj North3Kamalakhya Dey PurkayasthaIndian National Congress
71Karimganj South4Aziz Ahmed KhanAll India United Democratic Front
72Katigorah15Amar Chand JainBharatiya Janata Party
73Katlicherra7Suzam Uddin LaskarAll India United Democratic Front
74Khumtai96Mrinal SaikiaBharatiya Janata Party
75Kokrajhar East30Pramila Rani BrahmaBodoland Peoples Front
76Kokrajhar West29Rabiram NarzaryBodoland People's Front
77Laharighat81Dr. Nazrul IslamIndian National Congress
78Lahowal117Rituparna BaruahBharatiya Janata Party
79Lakhimpur111Utpal DuttaAsom Gana Parishad
80Lakhipur13Rajdeep GoalaIndian National Congress
81Lumding92Sibu MisraBharatiya Janata Party
82Mahmara105Jogen MohanBharatiya Janata Party
83Majbat70Charan BoroBodoland People's Front
84Majuli99Sarbananda SonowalBharatiya Janata Party
85Mangaldoi67Gurujyoti DasBharatiya Janata Party
86Mankachar21Motiur Rohman MondalIndian National Congress
87Margherita124Bhaskar SharmaBharatiya Janata Party
88Mariani101Rupjyoti KurmiIndian National Congress
89Marigaon80Rama Kanta DewriBharatiya Janata Party
90Moran115Chakradhar GogoiBharatiya Janata Party
91Naharkatia120Naren SonowalAsom Gana Parishad
92Nalbari59Ashok SarmaBharatiya Janata Party
93Naoboicha110Mamun Imdadul Haque ChawdhuryAll India United Democratic Front
94Nazira104Debabrata SaikiaIndian National Congress
95Nowgong86Rupak SarmahBharatiya Janata Party
96Palasbari50Pranab KalitaBharatiya Janata Party
97Panery64Kamali BasumatariBodoland People's Front
98Patacharkuchi42Pabindra DekaAsom Gana Parishad
99Patharkandi2Krishnendu PaulBharatiya Janata Party
100Raha82Dimbeswar DasBharatiya Janata Party
101Rangapara74Pallab Lochan DasBharatiya Janata Party
102Rangia57Bhabesh KalitaBharatiya Janata Party
103Ratabari1Kripanath MallahBharatiya Janata Party
104Rupohihat85Nurul HudaIndian National Congress
105Sadiya126Bolin ChetiaBharatiya Janata Party
106Salmara South22Wazed Ali ChoudhuryIndian National Congress
107Samaguri88Rakibul HussainIndian National Congress
108Sarukhetri46Jakir Hussain SikdarIndian National Congress
109Sarupathar94Roselina TirkeyIndian National Congress
110Sibsagar108Pranab Kumar GogoiIndian National Congress
111Sidli31Chandan BrahmaBodoland People's Front
112Silchar9Dilip Kumar PaulBharatiya Janata Party
113Sipajhar66Binanda Kumar SaikiaBharatiya Janata Party
114Sonai10Aminul Haque LaskarBharatiya Janata Party
115Sonari106Topon Kumar GogoiBharatiya Janata Party
116Sootea75Padma HazarikaBharatiya Janata Party
117Sorbhog40Ranjit Kumar DasBharatiya Janata Party
118Tamulpur58Emmanuel MosaharyBodoland People's Front
119Teok102Renupoma RajkhowaAsom Gana Parishad
120Tezpur73Brindaban GoswamiAsom Gana Parishad
121Thowra107Kushal DowariBharatiya Janata Party
122Tingkhong119Bimal BoraBharatiya Janata Party
123Tinsukia122Sanjoy KishanBharatiya Janata Party
124Titabar100Tarun GogoiIndian National Congress
125Udalguri69Rihon DaimaryBodoland People's Front
126Udharbond12Mihir Kanti ShomeBharatiya Janata Party

See also

References

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  2. ↑ "Heavy polling points to polarisation". Archived from the original on 2016-04-24. Retrieved 2016-04-15.
  3. ↑ "More than 90 per cent turnouts mark aggressive Muslim voting in Assam". Archived from the original on 2016-04-16. Retrieved 2016-04-15.
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