Latin American Spring

The third wave of democratization in the 1980s, granted leftist parties to become electorally viable, with the United States reducing its opposition to such parties following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.[7] In the 1990s, neoliberal policies resulted in less social spending, unemployment, inflation and inequality.[8] Beginning in the 2000s, Latin Americans turned away from neoliberal policies and elected leftist leaders, who had recently turned toward more democratic processes instead of armed actions.[9]

Leftist leaders were elected throughout the region in a movement described as the "pink tide", with their governments relying on the 2000s commodities boom to initiate populist policies for support.[10][11] China, which was experiencing a growing economy simultaneously with Latin America, took advantage of strained relations between the United States and leftist governments in Latin America, partnering with regional governments.[10][12] South America in particular initially saw a drop in inequality and a growth in its economy as a result of Chinese commodity trade.[12] According to Daniel Lansberg, such policies resulted in "high public expectations in regard to continuing economic growth, subsidies, and social services".[11]

Prices of commodities dropped throughout the 2010s

Commodity prices lowered into the 2010s and overspending by pink tide governments led to unsustainable policies, with supporters becoming disenchanted, eventually leading to the rejection of leftist governments.[11][13] By the mid-2010s, Chinese investment in Latin America had also begun to decline.[12] Analysts state that such unsustainable policies were more apparent in Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela,[13][12] which received Chinese funds without any oversight.[12][14] The International Monetary Fund stated that between 2009 and 2019, national debt in South America increased from 51.2% to 78.1%.[15]

The end of the boom left regional governments with a difficult decision; siding with potential investors and lenders calling for austerity measures or the populace which rejected austerity, arguing that it did not improve social and inequality concerns.[15] As a result, some scholars have stated that rise and fall of regional governments were "a byproduct of the commodity cycle's acceleration and decadence".[10]

Authorities firing tear gas at demonstrations during the 2014 Venezuelan protests

As the result of the end of the commodities boom, unsustainable economic policies of late-president Hugo Chávez left the economy of Venezuela in crisis.[13][16][17] Issues with corruption[18] and crime in Venezuela[19] had also led to increased discontent among the Venezuelan populace. On 12 February 2014, protests against Chávez's successor, Nicolás Maduro, began the 2014 Venezuelan protests. The movement developed rapidly and was quickly compared to the Arab Spring. The International Business Times penned "For many analysts and international activists, the closest match to what Venezuela is going through occurred three years ago and a continent away: the Arab Spring",[20] Agence France-Presse wrote that protests "evoked some scenes of the 'Arab spring'"[21] and even President Maduro stated "They are trying to sell to the world the idea that the protests are some of sort of Arab spring", alleging a conspiracy was formulated by his opponents.[22] The protest moment has remained constant against Maduro since 2014.

Demonstration in Guatemala City on April 25, 2015 following the first corruption allegations against the Pérez Molina administration

In Guatemala, a United Nations-led La Línea corruption case accused President Otto Pérez Molina of being involved in corrupt acts involving customs and smuggling in April 2015.[23] Subsequent protests in the country led to the resignation and arrest of Pérez Molina.[23] Protests against corruption began to intensify in countries neighboring Guatemala, with tens of thousands beginning protests in Nicaragua,[24][25] resulting in El Mundo writing that "[t]he American spring has triumphed in Guatemala with the resignation of its president, but this revolution has only just begun and promises to take hold in neighboring countries".[23]

Protesters confronting authorities on 10 June 2015 during the 2015 Ecuadorian protests

Ecuador had seen years of increased funds during the commodities boom, but by 2015, the country saw its oil revenues drop by 50%.[26] The 2015 Ecuadorian protests began in June 2015 following introduction of austerity measures and inheritance tax proposals by President Rafael Correa.[26][27] Hundreds of thousands of protesters participated in the demonstrations in the following months.[28] Due to the rising disapproval of Correa, he passed a constitutional amendment to remove presidential term limits and removed himself from the 2017 Ecuadorian general election, with analysts suggesting that Correa would attempt to attain the presidency at a later date when the crisis stabilized.[27] Protests intensified later in the year after term limits were removed,[27] with presidential term limits eventually being reinstated following the 2018 Ecuadorian referendum and popular consultation.

By the end of 2015, some political analysts were already describing the occurrence of a "Latin American spring".[29][30][31] In September 2015, the Wilson Center outlined a scenario describing potential democratization mobilizations in Latin America, stating at the time that "[i]ncreased expectations of the rising middle classes generate impatience, dissatisfaction, and inability of citizens to identify themselves with politics. The 'Latin-American Spring' gains momentum as millions take to the streets, drawing on new technologies to organize".[30]

The Financial Times, discussing corruption and the rule of law in Latin America, wrote in December 2015:[31]

This new emphasis on the rule of law is a major shift for a continent where elites have long enjoyed impunity. It reflects an exploding desire among Latin American citizens for modern states that recognise the limits of power and respect constitutional checks and balances too. ... Popular revulsion with corruption, amplified by social media, is so widespread that some even talk about a “Latin American spring”.

In 2019, Americas Quarterly wrote, "Since 2015, anti-corruption protests have popped up almost everywhere in the region, converting law enforcement and judicial leaders into national celebrities. And there are no signs that social pressure is petering out".[4]

Millions of Brazilians demonstrated on 13 March 2016 demanding the departure of President Dilma Rousseff

The Odebrecht scandal resulted in widespread ramifications for Latin America, with anti-corruption protests gaining momentum in the region during the investigations.[4] Dissatisfaction with governments related to the Odebrecht scandal intensified in 2016, with more Latin Americans becoming disillusioned with democracy at the time, especially in countries more affected by the scandal.[5]

Millions of protesters mobilized in Brazil following the scandal,[32] with many Brazilians surveyed by the Latin American Public Opinion Project at the time believing that the majority of politicians in the country were involved in corruption.[5] President Dilma Rousseff was ultimately impeached following graft investigations related to Operation Car Wash.[33]

Following such demonstrations, Colombian businessman and diplomat Luis Alberto Moreno wrote in an article titled ¿Una primavera latinoamericana? that "throughout Latin America citizens are taking to the streets to say enough to corruption ... the demonstrations now involve a broad spectrum of society that includes, mainly, the emerging middle class of the region", with such popular pressure beginning to lead to the condemnation and arrest of many politicians in the region.[34]

Protests began in January 2017 in Venezuela after the arrest of multiple opposition leaders and the cancellation of dialogue between the opposition and Nicolás Maduro's government. As the tension continued, the 2017 Venezuelan constitutional crisis began in late March when the pro-Maduro Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) dissolved the opposition-led National Assembly, with the intensity of protests increasing greatly throughout Venezuela following the decision.[35][36][37] As April arrived, the protests grew "into the most combative since a wave of unrest in 2014" resulting from the crisis[38] with hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans protesting daily through the month and into May.[39] After failing to prevent the July Constituent Assembly election, the opposition and protests largely lost momentum. Also in 2017, Peruvian former president Ollanta Humala and his wife were arrested after being involved in Operation Car Wash.

The effects of the Odebrecht scandal also affected politics in Peru, with President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski becoming involved in an impeachment proceeding after being accused of accepting bribes from Odebrecht,[40] with Kuczynski later resigning following continued political pressure. Further instances of corruption led to thousands of Peruvians protesting, with the replacement president Martín Vizcarra demanding an opposition congress to approve a referendum with anti-corruption measures.[41] The 2018 Peruvian constitutional referendum would ultimately occur, with Transparency International praising the results, stating that "This is a very important opportunity, one that is unlike previous opportunities because, in part, the president appears genuinely committed".[42]

Nicaragua had major protests in 2018 against the policies of Daniel Ortega. Hundreds of people died in clashes against security forces.[43]

From late-2018 and throughout 2019, protests in the region intensified once more,[4] with the protests being motivated by various causes.[1]