2024 Russian presidential election

The "2024 problem"[9] is connected with end of Putin’s presidential powers in 2024.[10]

According to Gallup International opinion poll conducted in December 2017, if Putin was not to be on the ballot, 46% would not have known for whom to vote and 19% would have made the ballot paper invalid.[11] Valery Fedorov[12] said that the Russian population does not think about this problem,[13] while the focus group participants gathered by the Levada Center identified two main scenarios for its solution: preservation of presidential powers by Vladimir Putin and the appointment of a successor.[14]

According to Ekaterina Schulmann, a wide elite pact is being sought, the alternative to which is the war of all against all.[15] According to Oleg Chernozub, the Russian elite is able to find ways to solve this problem,[10] for example, Valery Zorkin proposed changing the constitution,[16] Vyacheslav Volodin proposed expanding the powers of the parliament.[17]

In general, there are several scenarios for the development of events in the political field of Russia in 2024:[18]

• Competitive free elections

  One of the least likely scenarios is that the next president after Putin will be determined as a result of an open political process.[18]

• Assignment of a successor[19]

  One of the most likely scenarios is when Vladimir Putin will appoint his successor, who will be the main candidate for the 2024 election.[10] Putin himself was successor of Boris Yeltsin, and then Dmitry Medvedev was Putin's successor for one term.[18] Participants of focus groups, among Putin's possible successors, often name Dmitry Medvedev and Sergey Shoygu, less often Sergey Lavrov, Sergey Sobyanin, or even Pavel Grudinin; many say that he will be an unknown, "fresh" person.[14] Political analyst Azhdar Kurtov believes that to ensure the victory of a successor in the elections, there may be recognition of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic independence.[20]

  In connection with the alleged transit of power, questions arise - will a successor be able to protect Putin in the same way that Putin protected Yeltsin? Will it be possible to change the president without serious destabilization and internal struggle? And most importantly - can the system built by Putin function without Putin?[21]

• Amendment of the Constitution[19]

  Another possible way for Putin to retain power after 2024 called a possible amendment to the Constitution, removing the limitation of the terms of presidency in order for Putin to run for president in 2024. However, Putin said he was not going to change the Constitution in an interview with Megyn Kelly in March 2018.[22]

  A scenario in which restrictions that prevent Putin from remaining as president of the Russian Federation will be lifted.[18] Sergei Markov says that Putin’s repeated statements that there will be no abolition of terms of office have led discussion of possible scenarios for 2024 to a standstill.[23] Even a closer union with Belarus is being discussed.[24]

• Putin retains power, but not as president

  Putin may take another position in 2024 (as it was from 2008 to 2012) and again run for president in 2030. On 23 March 2018, Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Putin is not going to change the Constitution and if there will be any constitutional reform, it will not concern presidential powers.[25][26]

  As an option, Putin can choose the posts of the Prime Minister[27] with extended powers[23][28] or the Chairman of the State Duma.[18] This option involves expanding the powers of parliament.[23] Political scientists are also discussing the possibility of transferring powers to the Security Council or the State Council of the Russian Federation.[24] In January 2020, Putin announced plans to amend the Constitution and expand the powers of the Duma and State Council. This has led to further speculation that he may seek to lead a strengthened State Council after leaving the office of president.[29] It is also possible that Putin will retain political power without taking a formal position.[27]

According to political analyst Kirill Rogov, the constitutional design of Russian statehood remains unclear due to the unsuccessful experience of the “tandem” and the lack of institutions of distributed power.[30] In addition to the obvious conflict between Putin’s political regime and the official state system, the problem is also the impossibility for Putin to guarantee security for himself and his family if he leaves office completely. However, poor health may encourage him to leave.[31]

During his annual address to the Federal Assembly on 15 January 2020, Putin proposed a constitutional amendments. According to assumptions, this reform will help him maintain influence on the government even after leaving the post of President.[32][33]

A number of amendments affect the presidential authority:[34]

• Putin proposed to partially weaken the President, and the State Duma has the right to approve members of the government (with the exception of power Ministers, whose appointment will be under the jurisdiction of the Federation Council).
• Remove the words "in a row" from the article about the maximum number of terms a President (that means that in the future presidents can serve two terms max for life, Putin can't run for President in all subsequent elections, and Dmitry Medvedev will be able to run just once, as previously already served one term as President).
• Putin proposed to state the role of the State Council in the Constitution. However, the Constitution will only state that the State Council is formed by the President, as well as the goals of its formation. The main powers of this body are proposed to be documented in an ordinary Federal Law (in March of the same year, Putin said that he was not going to head the state Council after leaving the post of President. In his opinion, such a decision would lead to dual power, which would be disastrous for Russia).[35]
• The amendments will also set stricter requirements for people running for president. Namely, they will have to have lived in Russia for the last 25 years (according to the old norm of 10 years), and the President can not become a person who has or ever had a foreign citizenship or residence permit in another country, while people who previously had citizenship of a country that or part of which became part of Russia will be able to run for president (this means that former Ukrainian citizens who lived in Crimea in 2014 and received Russian citizenship after the annexation of the peninsula will be able to run for president in the future, however, if under the old rule they could run already in these elections. Now they will not be able to do this until 2039).
• After the amendments, all former presidents will also receive the status of senators for life. At the same time, they will have the right to refuse this status.[36]

In order to adopt these amendments, Putin proposed holding a popular vote, in accordance with the results of which the amendments will enter into force or be rejected.[37]

• Dmitri Nossov, sportsman, judoka and former Deputy of the State Duma.[53]
• Sergei Polonsky[b 1], businessman, former CEO of the Mirax Group.[54]
• Boris Yakemenko, public activist and founder of the Nashi movement.[55]

• 
  former Deputy
  Dmitri Nossov
• 
  former CEO of the Mirax Group
  Sergei Polonsky[b 1]

United Russia will presumably support Vladimir Putin if 2020 amendments to the Constitution of Russia are passed.

• Alexey Dyumin, Governor of Tula Oblast.[56][57][58][59][60]
• Dmitry Medvedev, leader of United Russia party, former Prime Minister of Russia and former President of Russia.[61][62][63]
• Dmitry Mironov, Governor of Yaroslavl Oblast.[59]
• Sergey Naryshkin, Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service.[63]
• Sergey Shoygu, Minister of Defence.[64][60]
• Sergey Sobyanin, Mayor of Moscow.[65][66][63]
• Andrey Turchak, Senator from Pskov Oblast and Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council.[64]
• Vyacheslav Volodin, Deputy and Chairman of the State Duma.[58]
• Yevgeny Zinichev, Minister of Emergency Situations.[59]

• 
  Governor
  Alexey Dyumin
• 
  former Prime Minister
  Dmitry Medvedev
• 
  Governor
  Dmitry Mironov
• 
  SVR Director
  Sergey Naryshkin
• 
  Minister
  Sergey Shoygu
• 
  Mayor
  Sergey Sobyanin
• 
  Senator
  Andrey Turchak
• 
  State Duma Chairman
  Vyacheslav Volodin
• 
  Minister
  Yevgeny Zinichev

• Sergey Furgal, Governor of Khabarovsk Krai.[67]

• 
  Governor
  Sergey Furgal

• Zakhar Prilepin, writer, publicist, public activist, television presenter, leader of For Truth party.[60][68]

• 
  Zakhar Prilepin

• Andrey Belousov, First Deputy Prime Minister and Acting Prime Minister of Russia.[69]
• Yury Dud, journalist, video blogger.[70][71][72]
• Sergey Kiriyenko, Kremlin First Deputy Chief of Staff and former Prime Minister of Russia.[73]
• Alexei Kudrin, Chairman of the Accounts Chamber.[74]
• Mikhail Mishustin, Prime Minister of Russia.[75]

• 
  First Deputy Prime Minister
  Andrey Belousov
• 
  Yury Dud
• 
  Kremlin First Deputy Chief of Staff
  Sergey Kiriyenko
• 
  Accounts Chamber Chairman
  Alexei Kudrin
• 
  Prime Minister
  Mikhail Mishustin

• Ramzan Kadyrov, Head of Chechnya.[76]

• Grigory Yavlinsky, former Deputy of the State Duma, former leader of the Yabloko party, presidential candidate in 1996, 2000 and 2018.[77]

• Maxim Galkin, comedian and television presenter.[78]