2018 Fremantle by-election

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Fremantle took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Josh Wilson.[1]

2018 Fremantle by-election
28 July 2018 (2018-07-28)
The Division of Fremantle (WA) in the House of Representatives
Registered103,149
Turnout66.09% 22.72
  First party Second party
 
Candidate Josh Wilson John Gray
Party Labor Liberal Democratic
Percentage 52.62% 14.10%
Swing 11.63 14.10
2CP 73.33% 26.67%
2CP change 73.33 26.67
MP before election

Josh Wilson
Labor

 Elected MP

Josh Wilson
Labor

In early counting, within 90 minutes of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate with an increased margin.[2] It is notable for being the first time that a Liberal Democrats candidate won a two-candidate-preferred spot in a federal election.

Background

Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Wilson and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[3] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[4] The others are:

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[5]

  • Thursday, 10 May 2018 – Speaker acceptance of resignation
  • Friday, 15 June 2018 – Issue of writ
  • Friday, 22 June 2018 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
  • Thursday, 5 July 2018 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
  • Friday, 6 July 2018 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
  • Tuesday, 10 July 2018 – Start of early voting
  • Saturday, 28 July 2018 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
  • Friday, 10 August 2018 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
  • Sunday, 23 September 2018 – Last day for return of writs

Candidates
Candidates (7) in ballot paper order[6]
Party Candidate Background
  Christians Mark Staer Contested Cannington at the 2008 state election and Gosnells at the 2013 state election.[7]
  Greens Dorinda Cox Small business owner, former police officer, anti-domestic violence campaigner.[8]
  Animal Justice Katrina Love Party's national vice president and state convenor.[6]
  Labor Josh Wilson Previous MP for Fremantle elected at the 2016 federal election.[9]
  Liberal Democrats John Gray Former Navy officer, Notre Dame University law student, Starlight Children's Foundation entertainer.[10]
  People James Harfouche Curtin University commerce student.[6]
  Independent Jason Spanbroek Running on an anti-Labor platform.[11]

The Liberals declined to contest the Fremantle and Perth federal by-elections, but concentrated their resources on the Darling Range state by-election.[12]

Polling
Fremantle by-election polling
Date Firm Commissioned by Sample MoE[13] Primary vote TCP vote
ALP GRN LDP OTH UND ALP GRN
23 July 2018 ReachTEL Legalise Vaping Australia[14] 692 ±3.7% 49.3% 16.0% 17.4% 11.2% 6.1% 69% 31%
2016 election 41.0% 17.7% − 41.3% − 57.5% −

Results
Further information: Electoral results for the Division of Fremantle
Fremantle by-election: 28 July 2018[15][16]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labor Josh Wilson 33,277 52.62 +11.63
Greens Dorinda Cox 10,456 16.53 −1.21
Liberal Democrats John Gray 8,916 14.10 +14.10
Christians Mark Staer 3,350 5.30 +5.30
Animal Justice Katrina Love 3,297 5.21 +5.21
Independent Jason Spanbroek 3,239 5.12 +5.12
People's Party James Harfouche 708 1.12 +1.12
Total formal votes 63,243 92.76 −3.24
Informal votes 4,933 7.24 +3.24
Turnout 68,176 66.09 −22.72
Two-candidate-preferred result
Labor Josh Wilson 46,375 73.33 +15.81
Liberal Democrats John Gray 16,868 26.67 +26.67
Labor hold SwingN/A

See also

References
  1. Citizenship drama flares again, with four MPs and one senator on the way out after High Court ruling: ABC 9 May 2018
  2. July 2018 Federal By-elections: Antony Green ABC
  3. Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election: ABC 2 May 2018
  4. "Date set for by-elections in Perth, Fremantle, Mayo, Longman and Braddon". ABC News. 24 May 2018. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
  5. "2018 Fremantle by-election". Australian Electoral Commission.
  6. 2018 Fremantle by-election guide: Antony Green ABC
  7. 2018 Fremantle by-election: australianchristians.org.au
  8. Dorinda Cox for Fremantle: greens.org.au
  9. Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money - ABC 10 May 2018
  10. John Gray - Liberal Democrats candidate for Fremantle: Facebook
  11. Jason Spanbroek for Fremantle: Facebook
  12. Mathias Cormann admits Liberals have given up on Perth, Fremantle by-elections: ABC 14 May 2018
  13. Margin of error calculator
  14. Super Saturday minus one day: Poll Bludger 27 July 2018
  15. "Fremantle by-election results: AEC".
  16. "Fremantle by-election results: ABC".
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