Opinion polling for the Indian general election, 2019

In the run up to the Indian general election, 2019, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the Jan 2018 to April 2019. Many organisations have gone on to conduct exit polls and post-poll surveys as well, which too are displayed.

Background

Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation.[1]

Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions.[2]

Post-poll surveys, widely published, are fundamentally different from opinion polls.[3] According to a study, post-poll surveys in the past have consistently overestimated BJP seats.[4]

Opinion polls

Date Polling agency NDA UPA Others Lead
October 2018 ABP News-CSDS 276 112 155 121
Aug 2018

India Today- Karvy

 255 248 46 7
228 224 91 4
281 122 140 141
May 2018 ABP News-CSDS 274 164 105 110
Jan 2018 Republic-CVoter 335 89 119 216
Jan 2018 India Today 309 102 132 177
Jan 2018 ABP News-CSDS 301 127 115 174
Aug 2017 India Today 349 75 119 230
Jan 2017 India Today 370 60 123 237
Aug 2016 India Today 304 94 145 159
Feb 2016 India Today 286 110 147 139
Aug 2015 India Today 288 81 174 114
Apr–May 2014 General election results 336 60 147 276

Polling on Politicians

Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi

Date Polling agency Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi Lead
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 60% 34% 26%
Jan 2018 66% 28% 34%
2017 69% 26% 43%

Best Alternative to Narendra Modi amongst the Opposition leaders in 2019 Election

Date Polling agency Rahul Gandhi Mamata Banerjee Priyanka Gandhi P. Chidambaram Akhilesh Yadav Arvind Kejriwal Naveen Patnaik Sharad Pawar Mayawati Nitish Kumar Sonia Gandhi Mulayam Singh Yadav Can't Say
July 2018 India Today- Karvy 46 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 2  –  –  – 12
Jan 2018 45 9 9 7 5 4 4 2 3  –  –  – 12
July 2017 21 4 6 4  – 7 3  – 2 13 12 3 22
Jan 2017 28 4 3 2 7 2 3 13 9 3 24
Aug 2016 23 4 4 2 12 3 3 13 9 3 21
Feb 2016 32 2 5  – 10 1 3 8 15 2 15

Statewise opinion polling

Andhra Pradesh (25)

Date Polling agency YSR Congress TDP Lead
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 21 4 17
June 2018 Spick Media 10 15 5

Bihar (40)

Date Polling agency NDA UPA Lead
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 22 18 4
31 9 22
July 2018 ABP News- CSDS 9 31 22

Chhattisgarh (11)

Date Polling agency NDA UPA Lead
Oct 2018 Times Now 8 3 5
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 9 2 7
July 2018 Spick Media 5 6 1

Haryana (10)

Date Polling agency NDA UPA INLD Lead
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 6 3 1 3

Kerala (20)

Date Polling agency NDA UDF LDF Lead
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 0 16 4 12

Madhya Pradesh (40)

Date Polling agency NDA UPA Lead
Oct 2018 Times Now 21 8 13
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 23 6 17
July 2018 Spick Media 16 13 3

Maharashtra (48)

Date Polling agency NDA SHS UPA NCP Lead
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 16 2 30 14
36 12 24
22 7 11 8 11

Odisha (21)

Date Polling agency NDA UPA BJD Lead
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 13 2 6 7

Punjab (13)

Date Polling agency NDA UPA Lead
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 2 12 11

Rajasthan (25)

Date Polling agency NDA UPA Lead
Oct 2018 Times Now 14 11 3
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 18 7 11

Uttar Pradesh (80)

Date Polling agency NDA UPA Others Lead
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 24 56 32
36 2 42 6
70 2 8 62

Union Territories

NCT of Delhi (7)

Date Polling agency NDA UPA Lead
Oct 2018 ABP News- CSDS 7  – 7

References

  1. ↑ "In India’s National Election, Don’t Trust the Polls, Jonah Force Hill, February 24, 2014". TheDiplomat.com. Feb 2014.
  2. ↑ "Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls: My Experiences . March 2014.
  3. ↑ "What exit polls are really about." May 12, 2014.
  4. ↑ "Lok sabha elections 2014: Why exit polls often get it wrong." 13 May, 2014.
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