Next Conservative Party (UK) leadership election

Party leader and Prime Minister Theresa May in late 2017

The next Conservative Party leadership election has not yet been formally launched. Speculation of a leadership election arose following the party's poor showing at the 2017 snap general election that the Leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister, Theresa May, had called in hope of increasing her parliamentary majority for Brexit negotiations. However, the Conservatives lost their majority in the House of Commons due to a swing towards the Labour Party; where some Conservative safe seats unexpectedly fell to Labour for the first time ever.

Background

After Britain voted to leave the EU, David Cameron resigned as Leader of the Conservative & Unionist Party and as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom which triggered the 2016 Conservative Party leadership election. Home Secretary Theresa May won the contest, after the withdrawal of Andrea Leadsom, and succeeded Cameron as Prime Minister on 13 July. As Prime Minister, May began the process of withdrawing the UK from the European Union, triggering Article 50 on 29 March 2017. In April 2017, May announced a snap general election in June, in order to "strengthen her hand" when she negotiated with the European Union. Opinion polls originally predicted a huge landslide victory for the Conservative Party and May aimed to substantially increase her party's slim majority. However, the result was a hung parliament, in which the number of Conservative seats fell from 330 to 317, prompting her to broker a confidence and supply deal with Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to support her minority government.

May's handling of the campaign was widely criticised, particularly the role of her two chiefs of staff, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill. On 11 June 2017, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, described May as a "dead woman walking".^[1] A survey on the website Conservative Home found that almost two-thirds of Conservative party members want Theresa May to resign.^[2] A YouGov poll of 1,720 adults for the Sunday Times had 48% saying May should resign, with 38% against.^[3] A Survation poll of 1,036 adults online for the Mail on Sunday had 49% of people wanting her resignation, with 38% against.^[3] Former Cabinet minister Anna Soubry called for May to "consider her position" after the election result. Former Cabinet minister Nicky Morgan said that May could not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election and called for a leadership election in the summer or in 2018 before the Brexit deal is finalised. Brexiteers pledged loyalty to May but many reportedly threatened an immediate leadership challenge should May plan to dilute her initial plans for Brexit. After the Grenfell Tower fire, May's leadership faced more criticism after her initial refusal to meet victims and her poor handling of the crisis.

With May's position weakened, senior colleagues in the party were said to be preparing for a leadership contest and "jostling for succession," as a July article in the Financial Times put it.^[4] Politicians and journalists do not expect May to lead the party at the next general election, with the Sunday Times Political Editor Tim Shipman describing "the first shots in a battle that could tear the government apart" in a July 2017 article as the three leading contenders for the leadership, David Davis, Boris Johnson and Philip Hammond, brief against each other.^[5] Junior ministers were also said to be frustrated at Cabinet ministers for propping up a Prime Minister with no authority in order to further their careers with some ministers preparing to resign in order to trigger a leadership election. Andrew Mitchell, an ally of Davis, was said to have told a dinner that May was finished and was said to be organising letters to force May to name her date of departure.^[6] A July 2017 report in The Independent said a core of 15 Conservative MPs were ready to sign a letter of no confidence, with 48 needed to trigger a contest.^[7]

May reportedly announced to Conservative MPs in August 2017 that she would resign as Prime Minister on 30 August 2019, making it likely that the next leadership election would take place in the summer of 2019.^[8] However, May subsequently announced on 31 August 2017 that she intended to stay on to fight the next general election, which under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 is scheduled to be in 2022 (though it can be held earlier if MPs vote for this, as happened for the snap election of 2017).^[9]

On 16 September 2017, Johnson published an article in The Daily Telegraph laying out his vision for Brexit. Many people saw this as him positioning himself for a leadership challenge,^[10][11] although some commentators, like Newsnight's political editor Nick Watt and columnist Iain Dale, argued this was the wrong interpretation and that Johnson's motivation was to assert his influence in Brexit negotiations. The timing of the article, a few days before May was to give a significant speech on her plans for the UK's relationship with Europe after Brexit,^[12] and shortly after a terrorist attack in London, was criticised.^[13]

Following Cabinet agreement for May's proposals on Brexit, Davis resigned from his government position on 8 July 2018.^[14][15] Following that, Steve Baker also resigned. On the same day it was reported that May was facing the threat of a leadership contest amid mounting anger from Brexiteers over her government's Brexit policy.^[16] Conservative Party backbencher Andrea Jenkyns called on for the Prime Minister to be replaced. saying “Theresa May's premiership is over”.^[17][18] Johnson later resigned as Foreign Secretary on 9 July 2018.^[19]

A Daily Telegraph article opposing the burqa ban in Denmark by Johnson in early August 2018 sparked controversy given some of the language he used, saying women wearing the burqa look like letter boxes or bank robbers. Some saw it as an attempt to court an anti-Islamic segment of the Conservative Party membership,^[20] the electorate in a leadership campaign, while others defended him as straight-talking. Dominic Grieve MP said on 8 August that he would not remain in the party if Johnson became leader.^[21]

In September 2018, former chair of the Prime Minister's policy board George Freeman called on May to stand down as leader once a Brexit deal was secure, and suggested himself as a potential successor.^[22]

Candidates

While a large number of potential candidates have attracted speculation, the main contenders were initially seen to be Philip Hammond, David Davis, Boris Johnson and Amber Rudd.^{[23][24][25][26]} By early August 2017, Jacob Rees-Mogg was receiving considerable attention and he had risen to second in the betting markets after Davis.^[27]

Following renewed speculation about May's leadership after Johnson and Davis resigned from the Cabinet in summer 2018, press interest focused on Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt.^[28][29][30] Ruth Davidson also continued to receive considerable speculation, despite being ineligible as she is not currently an MP at Westminster.^[31][30] She ruled herself out as a candidate in September 2018.^[32]

Opinion polling

Public polling

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size	Ruth Davidson	David Davis	Michael Gove	Philip Hammond	Jeremy Hunt	Sajid Javid	Boris Johnson	Penny Mordaunt	Jacob Rees-Mogg	Amber Rudd	Gavin Williamson	Don't Know	Others
28-29 Sep 2018	BMG Research/HuffPost UK	1,203	6%	3%	2%	4%	N/A	5%	20%	0%	7%	2%	N/A	26%	15%
19-20 Jul 2018	YouGov/The Times	1,668	8%	N/A	1%	N/A	2%	4%	15%	1%	12%	N/A	1%	25%	32%
Jul 2018	Opinium/Observer		N/A	7%	3%	5%	4%	N/A	12%	N/A	10%		N/A		25% Others Andrea Leadsom 2%

Polls of Conservative Party members

Free choice polling

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size	Ruth Davidson	David Davis	Michael Gove	Philip Hammond	Jeremy Hunt	Sajid Javid	Boris Johnson	Penny Mordaunt	Jacob Rees-Mogg	Amber Rudd	Gavin Williamson	Don't Know	Others
5-8 July 2018	YouGov	966 Conservative members	20%	N/A	11%	N/A	4%	17%	11%	2%	29%	N/A	1%	4%	<----Others---->
20-27 September 2017	YouGov	927 Conservative members	19%	11%	N/A	5%	N/A	1%	23%	N/A	17%	5%	N/A	5%	Others Dominic Raab 2% Priti Patel 2% Damian Green 1% Liam Fox 1% Tom Tugendhat 1% Someone else 6%
21 June-11 July 2017	YouGov	1,002 Conservative members	N/A	21%	N/A	5%	N/A	N/A	17%	N/A	6%	4%	N/A	26%	Others Andrea Leadsom 1% Liam Fox 1%

Davis vs Rudd

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size	David Davis	Amber Rudd	Would not vote	Don't Know
20-27 September 2017	YouGov	927 Conservative members	51%	32%	8%	9%

Johnson vs Rudd

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size	Boris Johnson	Amber Rudd	Would not vote	Don't Know
20-27 September 2017	YouGov	927 Conservative members	57%	33%	5%	5%

Davis vs Johnson

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size	David Davis	Boris Johnson	Would not vote	Don't Know
20-27 September 2017	YouGov	927 Conservative members	39%	46%	9%	7%

Polls of Conservative Party voters

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size	Ruth Davidson	David Davis	Michael Gove	Philip Hammond	Sajid Javid	Boris Johnson	Dominic Raab	Jacob Rees-Mogg	Amber Rudd	None of the above	Don't Know	Others
7-8 Nov 2017	YouGov / The Times	573 Conservative voters	N/A	7%	3%	2%	2%	12%	7%	18%	6%	14%	29%	Others
23 Sep 2017	Survation/Mail on Sunday	364 Conservative voters	N/A	8%	3%	6%	N/A	31%	N/A	9%	8%	12%	23%	Others
19-22 Sep 2017	Opinium/Observer	511 Conservative voters	15%	11%	3%	8%	3%	26%	N/A	10%	9%	1%	15%
31 Aug - 1 Sep 2017	Survation/Mail on Sunday	315 Conservative voters	5%	11%	4%	10%	N/A	23%	N/A	14%	5%	6%	23%	Others

See also

• Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2016
• Next United Kingdom general election

References