Mars One

Mars One
Country of origin Private founded in Netherlands
Responsible organization Mars One and Interplanetary Media Group
Purpose Permanent Mars settlement
Status Under study
Program history
Program duration Since 2011 (crew selection)
First flight 2020s (proposed)
First crewed flight 2030s (proposed)
Vehicle information
Crew vehicle Mars Transit Habitat (conceptual), Mars One Habitat (conceptual)
Crew capacity 4
Launch vehicle(s) Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy (proposal rejected by SpaceX[1])
Image of Mars, constructed from Viking orbiter data

Mars One is a small private Dutch organization that proposed in 2012 to land the first humans on Mars and leave them there to establish a permanent human colony in the coming decades.[2][3][4] Mars One is not an aerospace company and will not manufacture hardware. Mars One consists of two entities: the not-for-profit Mars One Foundation, and the for-profit company Mars One Ventures which is the controlling stockholder of the for-profit Interplanetary Media Group that also manages the broadcasting rights. The Mars One Foundation, based in the Netherlands, manages the project.

The small organisation has 4 employees,[5] and intends to make profits by selling media (documentaries) about the personnel selection, training and colonization.[6] The first mission is estimated by Lansdorp to cost about 6 billion dollars as of the 2010s.[6] [7]

Mars One's original concept includes launching a robotic Mars lander and Mars orbiter as early as 2020, to be followed by a human crew of four in 2024, and one in 2026 which would not be returning to Earth. Although the announcement garnered much international publicity, the concept has been criticized by scientists, engineers, and those in the aerospace industry.[8] Mars One is noted as being very short on funding, lacking critical concepts about hardware, life support, electrical power supply, and has been criticized as glossing over logistics, medical concerns, and protection against space radiation.[9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17] The concept has been called a suicide mission both in academia, spaceflight, and international news.[5][14][9]

By February 2015, two conceptual studies were done by contractors.[18] Despite the criticism and lack of funding, about 2,700 people applied to become one of the 24 finalists "to settle Mars."[6]

Initial mission concept

Bas Lansdorp, founder of Mars One
Sunset on Mars at Gale crater as viewed by a robotic rover's imaging system

In December 2013, Mars One announced its concept of a robotic precursor mission. Originally scheduled for launch in 2020, the roadmap calls for the launch to occur in 2022.[19] If funded, the robotic lander would be "built by Lockheed Martin based on the design used for NASA's Phoenix and InSight landers, as well as a communications orbiter built by Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd."[20] In February 2015, Lockheed Martin and Surrey Satellite Technology confirmed that contracts on the initial study phase begun in late 2013 had run out and additional contracts had not been received for further progress on the robotic missions. Plans were set in motion to raise the US$200 million needed to support the initial robotic mission,[18][20] but some critics do not find the economic plans to raise money from private investors and exclusive broadcasting rights to be sufficient to support the initial, or follow-on, mission(s).

Mars One selected a second-round pool of astronaut candidates in 2013. Mars One received interest from over 200,000 applicants for the first round. However, as candidate Joseph Roche asserted, the number of initial applicants who completed the application process was only 2,761,[21] which Mars One later confirmed via YouTube video.[22] The second-round pool was whittled down to 705 candidates (418 men and 287 women) in the beginning of May 2014. 353 were removed due to personal considerations.[23] After the medical physical requirement, 660 candidates remained.[22] The third round of candidate selection concluded in 2015. The remaining 100 candidates, known as The Mars 100, consists of 50 men and 50 women who are slated to move forward to the next round, where 40 individuals will be chosen through an interview process.[24]

On June 30, 2014, it was made public that Mars One seeks financial investment through a bidding process to send company experiments to Mars. The experiment slots would go to the highest bidder and would include company-related ads, and the opportunity to have the company name on the robotic lander that was proposed to carry the experiments to Mars in 2018.[25]

In a video posted on 19 of March 2015, Lansdorp said that because of delays in funding the robotic precursor mission, the first crew will not set down on Mars until 2027.[26][9] Following the criticism reported in The Space Review in October 2016 about funding mechanisms,[27] Mars One created Mars One Ventures.[28] In late 2016 Mars One had changed its first crewed mission date to 2032.[29]

2013 robotic lander

Artist's impression of the NASA Phoenix spacecraft as it lands on Mars.

In December 2013, mission concept studies for a robotic Mars lander were contracted with Lockheed Martin for a demonstration mission concept. It would be based on the design of the successful 2007 NASA Phoenix lander,[30] and provide proof of concept for a subset of the key technologies for a later human settlement on Mars.[31] Upon submission of Lockheed Martin's Proposal Information Package,[30] Mars One released a Request for Proposals[32] for the various payloads on the lander. The total payload mass of 44 kg is divided among the seven payloads as follows:[32]

  1. Water extraction (10 kg)
  2. Soil acquisition (15 kg)
  3. Thin film solar power demonstrator (6 kg)
  4. Camera system (5 kg)
  5. Open for random proposals from the highest bidder (4 kg)
  6. Educational payload (2 kg)
  7. Winning university experiment (2 kg)

2022 robotic lander

In 2022, a robotic rover was proposed to be launched to Mars in order to scout a landing site for the 2027 lander and a site for the Mars One colony. At the same time, a communication satellite would be launched, enabling continuous communication with the future landed assets.[33]

2024 cargo missions

In 2020, six cargo missions were proposed to be in close succession, consisting of two living units, two life-support units, and two supply units.[33]

2024 Mars One launch

A spacecraft transporting four astronauts was proposed to meet a transit vehicle bound for Mars.[33]

2025 Mars One landing

In 2025, the landing module transporting four astronauts was proposed to land on Mars. They envisioned the crew to be met by the rover launched in 2020, and taken to the Mars One colony.[33]

TABLE 1: Mission elements road-map
Initial concept Current concept[34][35]a Desired milestone Latest status
2015 2018 Candidate pool would be reduced to 40 contestants,[36] possible building of the settlement for training purposes.[37] Candidate pool reduced to 100[38]
2016 2024 The first communication satellite (ComSat), and a lander to demonstrate certain key technologies. One initial concept study by Lockheed Martin (lander) and Surrey Satellite Technology (orbiter);[39] Not funded nor designed.
2018 2026 A rover (yet to be designed) would be launched to help select the location of the settlement. A second ComSat would launch to L5 to enable near-24/7 communication.[37] Not contractedb
2020 2029 A second rover and six notional modified Dragon capsules and another rover would launch with two living units, two life-support units and two supply units. Not contractedbc
2021 2030 The autonomous rovers would begin settlement assembly. The Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) would produce a breathable atmosphere of 0.7 bar pressure, 3000 liters of water, 240 kg of oxygen, which would be stored in the habitat for later use. Not contracted
2022 2031 A notional Falcon Heavy would launch with the first group of four colonists.[37] Not contractedc; Falcon Heavy not planned to be human rated[40]
2023 2032 The first colonists arrive on Mars in a notional lander. Not contractedc
2024 2033 Second crew of four colonists would be launched.[37]
2025 2034 Second crew would arrive on Mars.
2031 2040 The colony would reach 20 settlers.[41]

Notes:
^a The initial concept timeline has slipped 2 times, with a 2 year delay each time. (As of 5 February 2016) [42]
^b Work on robotic missions was suspended pending further review and future contract direction in February 2015.[18]
^c SpaceX has no contracts with MarsOne and the project does not appear on their launch manifest.[43]

Current team and advisers

The Mars One team currently consists of Chief Executive Officer and co-founder Bas Lansdorp, Chief Technical Officer and co-founder Arnold Wielders, Chief Medical Officer Norbert Kraft, Mission Concept Artist Bryan Versteeg, Senior Marketing Strategist KC Frank, and Chief Information Officer Tom Van Braeckel.[44]

Mars One's team of advisers consists of over 30 industry and scientific experts,[45] including American roboticist and former Chief Technologist for NASA Mason Peck, Professor Emeritus of Planetary Sciences at the University of Arizona Peter Smith, physicist and human spaceflight expert James Kass, space law and policy expert K.R. Sridhara Murthi, angel investor and journalist Esther Dyson, and aerospace engineer Robert Zubrin.

Desired technology

Mars One is not an aerospace company and will not manufacture hardware.[46] Lansdorp assumes all major components are available in the aerospace market,[47] and it has identified at least one potential supplier for each component of the mission.[48][49]

Launcher

SpaceX mentioned that they had been contacted by Mars One, but that accommodating Mars One requirements would require some additional work and that such action was not a part of the current focus of SpaceX.[1] SpaceX has no ongoing contracts with Mars One.[50][51] The first Mars One cargo mission to Mars is proposed to launch by 2022, followed by a crewed mission in 2024,[52] but without funds, hardware, and without a launcher it is seen as unlikely to happen.[53]

Mars Transit Vehicle

A hypothetical crewed interplanetary spacecraft, for which there are no concept design studies, would be assembled in low Earth orbit and comprise two propellant modules: a Transit Living Module (discarded just before arrival at Mars) and a lander (see "Human Lander" below).[47][54] In 2012, Mars One speculated that the Transit Living Module could potentially be designed and built by Thales Alenia Space.[55]

Demo lander

A concept study was produced by Lockheed Martin for a demonstration lander based on the 2008 Phoenix lander.[39]

Communications system

In December 2013 Mars One awarded a contract to Surrey Satellite Technology for a study of the satellite technology required to provide 24/7 communication between Earth and the Mars base.[56][57] Mars One proposed at least two satellites, one in areostationary orbit above Mars and a second at the Earth – Sun L4 or L5 point to relay the signal when Mars blocks the areosynchronous satellite from line of sight to Earth.[57] It is possible that a third satellite would be required to relay the signal on the rare occasions when the Sun blocks the first relay satellite from line of sight with Earth.[57]

Lander

An early notional crewed lander was shown in concept art as a 5 meters (16 ft)-diameter variant of SpaceX Red Dragon, but SpaceX declined to collaborate with Mars One.[43]

Rover

The crewed Mars rover would be unpressurized and support travel distances of 80 km (50 miles).[58] A suggested supplier for the rover in 2012 was Astrobotic Technology.[55]

Mars suit

The initial conceptual design assessment of Surface Exploration Suit (SES) for Mars by Paragon, includes the pressure suit and the Portable Life Support System (PLSS) that permit survival outside the habitat.

The Mars suit would need to be flexible to allow the settlers to work with both cumbersome construction materials and sophisticated machinery when they are outside the habitat while protecting them from the cold, low pressure and noxious gases of the Martian atmosphere.[59] The suggested supplier of the suits is ILC Dover.[60] On 12 March 2013, Paragon Space Development Corporation was contracted to develop concepts for life support and the Mars Surface Exploration Spacesuit System. The study was stated to be finished late summer 2013; Mars One released the results of this (ECLSS portion only) study to the public in June 2015.[61][62]

Life support systems

In 2013, Mars One signed a contract with Paragon Space Development Corporation, for a preliminary life support system concept study based on the International Space Station.[63] The idea was criticized because that system, as modern as it is, requires of significant maintenance and supplies not available while on Mars.[64][65] Paragon also produced a concept study for a surface exploration spacesuit that would use existing technology,[66] but it is not being funded for research and development.

Astronaut selection

Sign up period

The application was available from 22 April 2013 to 31 August 2013.[67][68] This first application consisted of applicant's general information, a motivational letter, a résumé and a video. More than 200,000 people expressed interest. By 9 September 2013, 4,227 applicants[69] had paid their registration fee and submitted public videos in which they made their case for going to Mars.[70] The application fee varies from US $5 to US $75 (the amount depending on the relative wealth of the applicant's country).[71]

Distribution of the 1,058 applicants selected for Round 2 according to their academic degree[72]

  Bachelor's degree (33%)
  Master's degree (15%)
  Ph.D (8%)
  Associate degree (3%)
  Doctor of Medicine (3%)
  Doctor of law (1%)
  Other (37%)

First selection (Round 1)

The applicants selected in this round were declared on 30 December 2013. A total of 1,058 applicants from 107 countries were selected.[20] The gender split was 586 males (55.4%) and 472 females (44.6%). Among the people that were selected to move on to round two, 159 have a Master's degree, 347 have Bachelor's degrees and 29 have Doctor of Medicine (M.D.) degrees. The majority of the applicants are under 36 and well educated.[73][74][75]

The Mars 100 (Round 2)

Medically cleared candidates were interviewed, and 50 men and 50 women from the total pool of 660 from around the world were selected to move on to the third round of the astronaut selection process:[76][77]

  • the youngest: 20-year-old
  • the oldest: 61-year-old

Applicants were remotely interviewed and recorded by Mars One over a relatively short Skype/SparkHire call regarding Martian-related orbital, temp/pressure, geological and historical parameters and the specific elements of the Mars One one-way mission.[21][78][79] Joseph Roche, one of the finalists, has accused the selection process of being based on a point system that is primarily dependent on how much money each individual generated or gave to the Mars One organization, despite many of the round three selectees having not spent any money in the process, apart from the application fee, which varied as a function of each applicant's country GDP.[21][78][79] Lansdorp acknowledges a "gamification" point system but denies that selection is based on money earned.[79] Roche also stated that if paid for interviews, they are asked to donate 75% of the payment to Mars One.[21][79] This was confirmed by Lansdorp.[21][79]

Group challenges (Round 3)

The company had intended that the regional selection may be broadcast as a reality television show documenting group challenges, but no deal was reached with TV producers. The audience was to select one winner per region, and the experts could select additional participants, if needed, to continue to the international level.[67][80] Of the 100 candidates, 40 individuals will be chosen through an interview process.[81] Round 3 would take place after enough funding is secured for an "Earth-based simulation outpost."[81]

Isolation (Round 4)

The remaining 40 candidates would be spending nine days in an isolation unit. The candidates are observed closely to examine how they act in situations of prolonged close contact with one another. It takes a specific team dynamic to be able to handle this, and the goal of this selection round is to find those that are best suited for this challenge. After the isolation round, 30 candidates would be chosen to undergo in a Mars Settler Suitability Interview.[82]

Mars Settler Suitability Interview (Round 5)

The Mars Settler Suitability Interview would measure suitability for long-duration space missions and Mars settlement, and will last approximately 4 hours. 24 candidates would be selected after the interview and would be offered full-time employment with Mars One.[82]

Astronaut training

From the previous selection series, six groups of four are to become full-time employees of the Mars One, after which they are to train for the mission. An MIT team noted that since the company is not developing the technology needed, it is unclear what the astronauts would be training for.[14][17] Mars One has stated that the teams selected will be undergoing a battery of training, ranging from psycho-social skills to engineering and scientific observation.[83]

Revenues and investment

Mars One funding comes from astronaut application fees, donations, undisclosed private investment, intellectual property (IP) rights, and mostly, the potential sale of future broadcasting rights.[6][71] Over three quarters of the funds would reportedly go to concept design studies. Mars One states that "income from donations and merchandise have not been used to pay salaries". To date, no financial records have been released for public viewing.[84] Mars One initially estimated a one-way trip, excluding the cost of maintaining four astronauts on Mars until they die, at 6 billion USD.[85] Lansdorp has declined questions regarding the cost estimate.[86]

Mars One's investment of revenues[87]

  Concept design studies (78.3%)
  Travel expenses (11.6%)
  Legal expenses (3.3%)
  Website maintenance (2.4%)
  Communications (2.3%)
  Office and other (2.1%)

Reality TV

A proposed global reality-TV show was intended to provide funds to finance the expedition, however, no such television show has emerged and no contracts have been signed. The astronaut selection process (with some public participation) was to be televised and continue on through the first years of living on Mars.[88][89]

Discussions between Endemol started in June 2014,[90] producers of the Big Brother series, and Mars One ended with Endemol subsidiary Darlow Smithson Productions issuing a statement in February 2015 that they "were unable to reach agreement on the details of the contract" and that the company was "no longer involved in the project."[91] Lansdorp updated plans to no longer include live broadcasts, but instead would rely on documentary-style short films produced by the company Stateless Media.[92][93]

Sponsors

On 31 August 2012, the company announced that funding from its first sponsors were received,[85] and that the funds were used mostly to pay for two conceptual design studies performed by aerospace suppliers Lockheed Martin (lander) and Surrey Satellite Systems (orbiter).[85]

On 3 March 2014 Mars One announced a working agreement with Uwingu, stating that the program would use Uwingu's map of Mars in all of their missions.[94][95]

Donations and merchandise

Revenues that Mars One has received from merchandise sale, donations and the Indiegogo crowd funding campaign until 4 July 2016.[87]
Country of buyer/donor Revenue amount (in US $)
 United States
371,102
 Canada
94,580
 United Kingdom
73,289
 Australia
65,799
 Netherlands
42,579
 Germany
39,396
 Russia
20,935
 Sweden
20,568
 Norway
18,726
 France
18,590
 Denmark
15,892
  Switzerland
11,782
 Belgium
11,066
 Spain
9,683
 Brazil
8,992
 Finland
8,927
 Poland
7,825
 Austria
7,342
 New Zealand
6,087
 Italy
5,428
Others (93 countries)
70,300

Total (from 113 countries): $928,888

Since the official announcement of their conversion to a Stichting foundation, Mars One has been accepting donations through their website. As of 4 July 2016, Mars One had received $928,888 in donations and merchandise sales.[96] The 2016 donation update adds the Indiegogo campaign ($313,744) to the private donation and merchandise total.

Crowdfunding

On 10 December 2013, Mars One set up a crowdfunding campaign on Indiegogo to help fund a 2018 demonstration robotic mission that was not built. The alleged 2018 mission would have included a lander and a communications satellite to prove technologies in addition to launch and landing. The campaign goal was to raise $400,000 USD by 25 January 2014. Since the ending date was drawing near, they decided to extend the ending date to 9 February 2014. By the end of the campaign, they had received $313,744. Indiegogo received 9% ($28,237).[97]

Criticism

Mars One has received a variety of criticism, mostly relating to medical,[98] technical and financial feasibility. There are also unverified claims that Mars One is a scam designed to take as much money as possible from donors, including reality show contestants.[99][100] Many have criticized the project's US$6 billion budget as being too low to successfully transport humans to Mars, to the point of being delusional.[17][101] A similar project study by NASA estimated the cost of such a feat at US$100 billion, although that included transporting the astronauts back to Earth. Objections have also been raised regarding the reality TV project associated with the expedition. Given the transient nature of most reality TV ventures, many believe that as viewership declines, funding could significantly decrease, thereby harming the entire expedition. Further, contestants have reported that they were ranked based on their donations and funds raised.[99][102]

Academia

John Logsdon, a space policy expert at George Washington University, criticized the program, saying it appears to be a scam[101] and not "a credible proposition".[103]

Chris Welch, director of the Masters Programs at the International Space University, has said "Even ignoring the potential mismatch between the project income and its costs and questions about its longer-term viability, the Mars One proposal does not demonstrate a sufficiently deep understanding of the problems to give real confidence that the project would be able to meet its very ambitious schedule."[104]

Gerard 't Hooft, theoretical physicist and ambassador[105] to Mars One, has stated that he thought both their proposed schedule and budget were off by a factor of ten.[21][106] He said he still supported the project's overall goals.[106]

A space logistics analysis conducted by PhD candidates at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology revealed that the most optimistic of scenarios would require 15 Falcon Heavy launches that would cost approximately $4.5 billion.[14] They concluded that the reliability of Environmental Control and Life Support systems (ECLS), the Technology Readiness Levels (TRL), and in situ resource utilization (ISRU) would have to be improved. Additionally, they determined that if the costs of launch were also lowered dramatically, together this would help to reduce the mass and cost of Mars settlement architecture.[14] The environmental system would result in failure to be able to support human life in 68 days if fire safety standards on over-oxygenation were followed, due to excessive use of nitrogen supplies that would not then be able to be used to compensate leakage of air out of the habitat, leading to a resultant loss in pressurization, ending with pressures too low to support human life.[14] Lansdorp replied that although he has not read all the research, supplier Lockheed Martin says that the technologies were viable.[107]

Another serious concern uncovered in the research conducted by MIT is replacement parts. The PhD candidates estimated the need for spare parts in a Mars colony based on the failure rates of parts on the ISS. They determined that a resupply mission every two years would be necessary unless a large space in the initial launch were to be reserved for extra materials. Lansdorp commented on this saying, "They are correct. The major challenge of Mars One is keeping everything up and running. We don't believe what we have designed is the best solution. It's a good solution."[107]

In March 2015, one of the Mars One finalists, Joseph Roche,[108] stated to media outlets that he believes the mission to be a scam. Roche holds doctorate degrees in physics and astrophysics, and shared many of his concerns and criticisms of the mission. These claims include that the organization lied about the number of applicants, stating that 200,000 individuals applied versus Roche's claim of 2,761, and that many of the applicants had paid to be put on the list. Furthermore, Roche claimed that Mars One is asking finalists for donations from any money earned from guest appearances (which would amount to a minimal portion of the estimated $6 billion required for the mission). Finally, despite being one of 100 finalists, Roche himself has never spoken to any Mars One employee or representative in person, and instead of psychological or psychometric testing as is normal for astronaut candidates (especially for a lengthy, one-way mission), his interview process consisted of a 10-minute Skype conversation.[99][109]

In April 2015, Mars One's CEO Bas Lansdorp admitted that their 12-year plan for landing humans on Mars by 2027 is mostly fiction.[9]

Space advocacy and policy

Robert Zubrin, advocate for crewed Martian exploration, said "I don't think the business plan closes it. We're going to go to Mars, we need a billion dollars, and we're going to make up the revenue with advertising and media rights and so on. You might be able to make up some of the money that way, but I don't think that anyone who is interested in making money is going to invest on that basis – invest in this really risky proposition, and if you're lucky you'll break even? That doesn't fly."[110] Despite his criticisms, Zubrin became an adviser to Mars One on 10 October 2013.[111]

Astronauts

Buzz Aldrin on the Moon

Canadian former astronaut Julie Payette said during the opening speech for an International Civil Aviation Organization conference that she does not think Mars One "is sending anybody anywhere".[79]

In January 2014, German former astronaut Ulrich Walter strongly criticized the project for ethical reasons. Speaking with Tagesspiegel, he estimated the probability of reaching Mars alive at only 30%, and that of surviving there more than three months at less than 20%. He said, "They don't care what happens to those people in space... If my tax money were used for such a mission, I would organize a protest."[112]

Space tourist Richard Garriott stated in response to Mars One, "Many have interesting viable starting plans. Few raise the money to be able to pull it off."[113]

Former astronaut Buzz Aldrin said in an interview that he wants to see humans on Mars by 2035, but he does not think Mars One will be the first to achieve it.[114]

Publications

Wired magazine gave it a plausibility score of 2 out of 10 as part of their 2012 Most Audacious Private Space Exploration Plans.[115]

The project lacks current funding as well as sources for future funding.[116] The organization has no spacecraft or rocket in development or any contracts in place with companies that could provide a spacecraft or rocket. While plans point to SpaceX for both resources, the company has no contracts with Mars One in an industry that typically plans contracts decades in advance.[43]

See also

References

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  29. ↑ Dec. 7, 2016 Geek Wire entry on Mars One
  30. 1 2 "Proposal Information Package" (PDF). Mars One. Retrieved June 11, 2018.
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  43. 1 2 3 "Will the Mars One reality TV mission ever take off?" (The Telegraph).
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  45. ↑ "Advisers - About Mars One". Retrieved 19 May 2018.
  46. ↑ Mars One - Technology. Mars One.
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  116. ↑ Mars One just delayed its (highly unlikely) Mars mission — again. Loren Grush, The Verge. 7 December 2016.

Further reading

  • Sydney Do; Koki Ho; Samuel Schreiner; Andrew Owens; Olivier de Weck (2014), "An Independent Assessment of the Technical Feasibility of the Mars One Mission Plan" (PDF), 65th International Astronautical Congress, IAC-14-A5.2.7
  • Book: Kraft, Norbert (23 February 2016). Mars One: Humanity's Next Great Adventure: Inside the First Human Settlement on Mars. BenBella Books. ISBN 978-1940363837.


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