Louisiana gubernatorial election, 2019

Louisiana gubernatorial election, 2019
October 12, 2019

 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent Governor

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

The Louisiana gubernatorial election of 2019 will be held to elect the Governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Governor John Bel Edwards is running for re-election to a second term.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party, and voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote during the primary election on October 12, 2019, a runoff election will be held on November 16, 2019, between the top two candidates in the primary.[1] Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).

Candidates

Democratic Party

Declared

Potential

Republican Party

Declared

  • Eddie Rispone, Baton Rouge Businessman & Neighborhood Activist [6][7]

Potential

Declined

Independents

Potential

  • Beryl Billiot, perennial candidate[19]
  • John Georges, businessman and candidate for Governor in 2007[5]
  • Bob Lang, perennial candidate[19]
  • Eric Paul Orgeron, candidate for Governor in 2015[19]
  • Arden Wells, perennial candidate[19]

Events prior to the election

After winning an upset victory over U.S. Senator David Vitter in 2015, Governor John Bel Edwards faced resistance to his agenda from the moment he took office. On Inauguration Day, House Republicans, in a break with tradition, elected their own speaker, Rep. Taylor Barras of New Iberia, over Edwards' choice, Rep. Walt Leger of New Orleans. This move was said to be orchestrated by House GOP Chairman Lance Harris, a potential gubernatorial 2019 candidate and frequent Edwards critic.[20] Edwards and Republican Legislative leaders have clashed repeatedly over budget, tax and spending measures.

Attorney General Jeff Landry is perhaps Edwards' most prominent detractor, filing multiple lawsuits against the governor and frequently criticizing him in the media. The two mostly disagree on social policies, such as Landry's staunch opposition to Edwards' executive order providing protections for LGBT workers of state government and contractors.[21] Landry has defeated Edwards in every legal challenge so far.[22] Landry also assumed the leadership of David Vitter's Political Action Committee, the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority. Former Vitter Chief of Staff Kyle Rukert heads the groups' operations.[23] They were instrumental to Clay Higgins' upset Congressional victory over Scott Angelle in 2016 and other Republican gains in the state.[24] Landry has closely aligned with President Donald Trump and attended Trump's 2017 State of the Union speech.[25]

Edwards also become a favorite target of Congressman Garret Graves, a Republican from Baton Rouge and former aide to Governor Bobby Jindal. Graves frequently criticized the governor during the state's response to the 2016 August floods in the state. The two notably sparred during a hearing of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, of which Graves is a member. Edwards' aides called the exchange a "political ambush" while Graves accused the governor of lying.[26] Graves is also closely aligned with the Trump Administration and donated $300 to the Trump Inaugural fund.[27] Graves also accompanied Vice President Mike Pence during a visit to parts of the Baton Rouge area in May 2017.[28]

As the only Democratic Governor in the Deep South, Edwards and his agenda also been the target of numerous attacks from numerous groups affiliated with the Republican Party such as America Rising and Americans for Prosperity.[29] Edwards, however, has said he is unbothered by and "just doesn't pay attention to" those groups. He went on to classify them as "a Washington, D.C., political action committee, trying to bring the never-ending campaign cycle to Louisiana."[29]

Aware of their gubernatorial ambitions, Edwards and his aides have repeatedly spoofed both John Kennedy and Jeff Landry during their traditional response skits at Baton Rouge's Gridiron Show.[30]

According to fundraising reports filed in 2016, Edwards had raised close to $3.3 million for his 2019 re-election effort.[31][32] By comparison, Landry had $544,000 on hand for a potential future campaign.[32] Graves and Kennedy had yet to form separate entities for statewide campaigns per Louisiana Law.

In the summer of 2017, Lieutenant Governor Billy Nungesser announced that he would not be a candidate for governor in 2019, and had decided to run for re-election. Nungesser, said that running for re-election was his plan all along and he had disclosed those plans to then Governor-Elect John Bel Edwards during the transition.

As of the fall of 2017, Congressman Ralph Abraham was reported to be running polls and assembling a staff to enter the race.

General election

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John Bel
Edwards (D)		 Ralph
Abraham (R)		 John
Kennedy (R)		 Eddie
Rispone (R)		 Undecided
Remington (R) September 11–12, 2018 1,615 ± 2.5% 40% 8% 37% 3% 12%
SurveyUSA (R-Kennedy) June 19–22, 2018 600 ± 4.8% 35% 8% 35% – 22%

Runoff

Polling

with John Kennedy
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John Bel
Edwards (D)		 John
Kennedy (R)		 Undecided
Remington (R) September 11–12, 2018 1,615 ± 2.5% 43% 47% 10%
SurveyUSA (R-Kennedy) June 19–22, 2018 600 ± 4.8% 37% 51% –
Mason-Dixon February 20–22, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 45% 44% 11%
with Ralph Abraham
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John Bel
Edwards (D)		 Ralph
Abraham (R)		 Undecided
Remington (R) September 11–12, 2018 1,615 ± 2.5% 48% 35% 17%
Mason-Dixon February 20–22, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 51% 28% 21%
with Eddie Rispone
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John Bel
Edwards (D)		 Eddie
Rispone (R)		 Undecided
Remington (R) September 11–12, 2018 1,615 ± 2.5% 52% 29% 19%

See also

References

  1. ↑ https://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/PublishedDocuments/ElectionsCalendar2019.pdf
  2. ↑ "Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards: 'I am running again in four years'". The Advocate. Retrieved 20 August 2016.
  3. ↑ "Deaton optimistic in longshot bid for governor". thetowntalk.com. Retrieved 2017-06-01.
  4. ↑ NOLA.com (May 1, 2017). "Mitch Landrieu for president? A mention in the N.Y. Times". NOLA.com.
  5. 1 2 "John Georges could shape the Louisiana governor's race if he decided to run". NOLA.com. Retrieved 2017-06-01.
  6. ↑ "And Now...Eddie Rispone For Governor?". The Hayride. 2018-08-10. Retrieved 2018-10-13.
  7. ↑ "Rispone 'definitely running' for Louisiana governor - Baton Rouge Business Report". Baton Rouge Business Report. 2018-10-10. Retrieved 2018-10-13.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Hilburn, Greg (April 21, 2017). "Who will challenge Gov. Edwards in 2019?". USA Today.
  9. ↑ Aswell, Tom. "Comeback for Jindal in 2019? He kept 'America Next' think tank, is grabbing for Trump coattails, so don't be surprised". www.LouisianaVoice.com.
  10. ↑ "Is John Kennedy Using The U.S. Senate To Beat On JBE And Run For Governor In 2019?". TheHayride.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.
  11. ↑ "No joking. John Kennedy in good spot for governor's race - Opinion". NOLa.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.
  12. ↑ "Sen. John Kennedy Tussles With Celebs; Is He a Rising Star for Governor?". TheHayride.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.
  13. ↑ http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/382952-sen-kennedy-considering-run-for-la-governor-report
  14. ↑ Sadow, Jeffrey. "Jeff Landry positioning for Governor run as he takes on weak Jon Bel Edwards?". BayouBuzz.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.
  15. 1 2 "BAYHAM: A Very Early Look At 2019". TheHayride.com. Retrieved October 28, 2017.
  16. ↑ Yokley, ELI. "Vitter Won't Seek Re-Election After Louisiana Governor's Loss". Roll Call.
  17. ↑ Rainey, Richard. "David Vitter to join Mercury Public Affairs lobbying firm". NOLA.com.
  18. ↑ "lapolitics.com/tuesday-tracker/". LaPolitics.com. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  19. 1 2 3 4 mballard@theadvocate.com, mark ballard. "Five longshot contenders insist they could be next Louisiana governor". The Advocate. Retrieved 2017-06-01.
  20. ↑ mballard@theadvocate.com, mark ballard. "In rarely seen twist, last-minute candidate Taylor Barras selected Louisiana House speaker". The Advocate. Retrieved 2017-05-30.
  21. ↑ "John Bel Edwards, Jeff Landry head to court over LGBT issues: 4 things to know". NOLA.com. Retrieved 2017-05-30.
  22. ↑ "John Bel Edwards' LGBT protections declared unlawful". NOLA.com. Retrieved 2017-05-30.
  23. ↑ http://www.washingtontimes.com, The Washington Times. "Analysis: Jeff Landry to take leadership role of Vitter PAC". The Washington Times. Retrieved 2017-05-30.
  24. ↑ "Louisiana congressional race: Career public servant vs. YouTube star". NOLA.com. Retrieved 2017-05-30.
  25. ↑ ecrisp@theadvocate.com, ELIZABETH CRISP |. "AG Jeff Landry in Washington, D.C., with attorneys general group that met with President Donald Trump". The Advocate. Retrieved 2017-05-30.
  26. ↑ rallen@theadvocate.com, REBEKAH ALLEN |. "U.S. Rep. Garret Graves, Gov. John Bel Edwards sniping about flood recovery, again". The Advocate. Retrieved 2017-05-30.
  27. ↑ ecrisp@theadvocate.com, ELIZABETH CRISP |. "Louisiana residents give more than $1M to Trump's inauguration". The Advocate. Retrieved 2017-05-30.
  28. ↑ ecrisp@theadvocate.com, ELIZABETH CRISP |. "VP Mike Pence vows 'Obamacare' repeal, touts budget plan and returns to flooded home during Louisiana trip". The Advocate. Retrieved 2017-05-30.
  29. 1 2 ecrisp@theadvocate.com, ELIZABETH CRISP |. "National GOP-backing group launches site against John Bel Edwards, 'The Accidental Governor'". The Advocate. Retrieved 2017-05-30.
  30. ↑ tbridges@theadvocate.com, tyler bridges |. "Who stayed? Who went? Who never left? People, groups, things after Gov. John Bel Edwards took over". The Advocate. Retrieved 2017-05-30.
  31. ↑ tbridges@theadvocate.com, TYLER BRIDGES |. "Gov. John Bel Edwards, once long-shot candidate, building war chest ahead of 2019 re-election campaign". The Advocate. Retrieved 2017-05-30.
  32. 1 2 Press, Associated. "In 2019 governor's race, John Bel Edwards has hefty fundraising lead on potential challenger Jeff Landry". The Advocate. Retrieved 2017-05-30.
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