Family dictatorship

A hereditary dictatorship, or family dictatorship, in political science terms a personalistic regime, is a form of dictatorship that occurs in a nominally or formally republican or socialist regime, but operates in practice like an absolute monarchy or despotate, in that political power passes within the dictator's family. Thus, although the key leader is often called president or prime minister rather than a king or emperor, power is transmitted between members of the same family due to the overwhelming authority of the leader. Sometimes the leader has been declared president for life and uses this power to nominate one of his or her family as successor.

A family dictatorship is different from a monarchy (where the descent is required by general constitutional law), or a political family (where members of the family possess informal, rather than formal and overwhelming political authority).

Distinguishing features

A family dictatorship is different from an absolute monarchy, and the ruler does not usually base his or her authority on the concept of divine right. In the latter, the transition of power within a family is required by general law as part of the state's constitutional arrangement, and continues to apply to all successions in the regime. In the former, this arrangement is not required by general law. In some cases, a special law might be enacted to formally nominate one particular family member of the present leader as the successor. In other cases, the law of the state may even formally provide for elections, but control exerted by the leader on the political and electoral process ensures a hereditary succession. Furthermore, whether each succession succeeds depends on the level of authority and control of the leader. As a result, modern family dictatorships often transition into a non-familial (non-personalistic) regime after a small number of successions: usually just one, and rarely more than two.

A family dictatorship is also different from other political families. In the latter, informal power and influence accrued to the family enables the family to continue to hold political power, often through open and contested elections. In the former, the family uses either formal legal or political power or control to ensure a familial succession, and usually via a controlled or uncontested election, or no election at all.

Because a family dictatorship exerts significant control on its succession, a successor is often determined well in advance. However, because it often lacks a formal general law basis for the succession, there are often long periods of uncertainty as to the identity of the successor. As often happens in other types of totalitarian regimes which plan their own succession, after a successor is determined or short-listed, they often go through a significant period of "grooming", in which the successor gains the experiences and qualifications aimed to make him or her attain the authority necessary to lead the regime.

Successful transitions of power

Kim Jong-Un, supreme leader of North Korea and member of the three-generation Kim dynasty is a prominent example of family dictatorship.

Dates in parentheses denote the period of rule.

Asia

The Al-Assad family has ruled Syria since 1971.

• North Korea: Kim Il-sung (1948–1994), succeeded by his son Kim Jong-il (1994–2011), succeeded by his son Kim Jong-un (2011–present). Kim Jong-il did not officially take office until 1997, when his father was posthumously given the position of Eternal President. On 2 June 2009, it was reported that Kim Jong-il's youngest son, Kim Jong-un, was to be North Korea's next leader.^[3] Like his father and grandfather, he was given an official sobriquet, The Great Successor and The Brilliant Comrade.^[4] It was reported that Kim Jong-il was expected to officially designate the son as his successor in 2012,^[5] but Kim Jong-il died in 2011 and Kim Jong-un was nevertheless announced as his successor.^[6] The 2013 edition of the "Ten Fundamental Principles of the Korean Workers' Party" – Article 10, Clause 2 – states that the Party and Revolution must be carried "eternally" by the "Baekdu (Kim's) bloodline".^[7] See also Kim Dynasty.
• Iraq: Abdul Salam Arif (President, 1963–1966); succeeded by his brother Abdul Rahman Arif (1966–1968).
• Syria: Hafez al-Assad (1971–2000), succeeded by his son Bashar al-Assad (2000–present). Bashar's elder brother, Basil al-Assad, had been designated for the presidency but died in 1994, six years prior to his father's death. See also Al-Assad family.

Unfulfilled successions

• China: After the death of Mao Zedong (1949–1976) his wife Jiang Qing planned a bloodless coup with the Gang of Four.
• South Vietnam: Ngô Đình Diệm (Prime Minister, 1954–1955; President, 1955–1963) intended to hand power to his brother, Ngô Đình Nhu until both were arrested and assassinated during the 1963 coup.
• Philippines: Ferdinand Marcos (1965–1986) intended his wife Imelda to be his successor but was ousted through the People Power Revolution.^[9]
• Romania: Elena Ceaușescu, wife of Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceaușescu (President of the State Council, 1967–1989; President, 1974–1989), was intended to succeed her husband until they were executed during the 1989 Romanian Revolution.^[10]
• Libya: It was speculated that Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the second son of then-leader Muammar Gaddafi (Brotherly Leader and Guide of the Revolution, 1969–2011) was going to succeed Gaddafi as leader, but Muammar was overthrown and Saif al-Islam said that "this is not a farm to inherit".^[11] Muammar Gaddafi's second son Mutassim Gaddafi was considered Saif al-Islam's strongest competitor in the question of succeeding their father.^[12]
• Bangladesh: Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman (1971–1975), the first President of Bangladesh, expected his son Sheikh Kamal to succeed him. Both were assassinated in 1975.
• Yemen: In 2004, Ali Abdullah Saleh (President of North Yemen then President of unified Yemen, 1978–2012) appointed his son, Ahmed Saleh, as commander of the Yemeni Republican Guard – a move interpreted by analysts as designating a family succession. Amid the Yemeni Revolution in 2012 and shortly after being elected president, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi dissolved the Republican Guard, effectively removing Ahmed Saleh from any meaningful power.
• Iraq: Saddam Hussein (de facto 1979–2003) designated his elder son Uday Hussein to succeed him as dictator, then changed the succession to his younger son Qusay Hussein after Uday suffered a severe injury in 1996. The U.S. invasion of Iraq and the death of both his sons, followed by Saddam's trial and subsequent execution made succession a moot point. See also Saddam's family.
• Zimbabwe: Robert Mugabe (Prime Minister then President, 1980–2017) wanted his wife Grace to succeed him,^[13][14][15] but this was prevented by a military coup.
• Egypt: Hosni Mubarak (President, 1981–2011) groomed his son Gamal Mubarak to become his successor, but was ousted in the 2011 Egyptian revolution.^[16]
• Venezuela: It was speculated that Adán Chávez, the brother of then-leader Hugo Chávez (President, 1999–2003) was going to succeed Chávez as president, but this never happened. There was also speculation that one of Hugo Chávez's daughters, Maria Gabriela or Rosa Virginia, would succeed him.^[17]

Potential successions

• Azerbaijan: The Vice President and First Lady of Azerbaijan Mehriban Aliyeva is widely considered to be in line to succeed her husband Ilham Aliyev as President of Azerbaijan. Analysts also believe that their daughters Leyla and Arzu are also being prepared as their father's or their mother's successors.^[18] On 21 February 2017 Mehriban Aliyeva was appointed Vice President of Azerbaijan, an office that was created through a constitutional referendum in 2016.^[19]
• Belarus: It is rumored that President Alexander Lukashenko has been preparing to have his young son Nikolai succeed him.^[20] Observers have noted how Lukashenko often brings his son on official engagements.^[21] On some occasions Nikolai is given a chair with the other heads of state, in sharp contrast with, for instance, the children of the then-President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov also present in the conference room.
• Cambodia: The Cambodian prime minister, Hun Sen, has appointed his eldest son, Hun Manet, to a higher military command to prepare him for the premiership.^[22]
• Equatorial Guinea: On 3 August 1979, President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo seized power from his uncle^[23] Francisco Macías Nguema. It is rumored that his son, the First Vice President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue, is his favorite to succeed him^[24] (see also Equatorial Guinean constitutional referendum, 2011). However, it is suspected that a power struggle between the younger Teodoro and his uncle Armengol Ondo Nguema might occur after President Obiang's death.
• Kazakhstan: Analysts believe long-time president Nursultan Nazarbayev has been preparing his daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva to succeed him. Despite a strained relationship during 2013;^[25] in September 2016, Dariga was appointed to the Senate – she was designated as head of the Senate's International Affairs, Defense, and Security Committee.^[26]
• Nicaragua: On 10 January 2017, Rosario Murillo, wife of Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega, was appointed as vice president of Nicaragua, which raised speculation that Murillo will succeed Ortega as president later.^[27]
• Philippines: On 22 September 2017, Rodrigo Duterte said of his daughter Sara that "I couldn’t find any other better candidate than Sara to become the next president",^[28][29] he later claimed he was joking.^[30]
• Russia: There's a rumor that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing his daughter, Katerina Tikhonova, to run in the 2024 presidential election, as he's unlikely to run for a fifth term due to his age.^[31]
• Tajikistan: On 3 April 2017, Rustam Emomali, the son of President Emomali Rahmon, was elected to the city legislature of the capital and largest city, Dushanbe. This made Rahmon's earlier appointment of Rustam Emomali as Mayor of Dushanbe legal. President Rahmon has other "close relatives" in "high official positions" in Tajikistan.^[32][33] For example, Ozoda Rahmon, one of President Rahmon's daughters, is both her father's chief of the presidential staff and a member of the National Assembly, the upper house of the Tajik parliament.^[34]
• Turkey: Some observers believe that especially since the shock of the 2016 coup attempt, President Erdogan tends to trust his own family more than his party or senior bureaucrats.^[35][36] A potential successor could be his son-in-law Berat Albayrak, who holds the influential post of finance minister and a seat on the Supreme Military Council.^[37][38][39]
• Turkmenistan: On 22 March 2017, the son of President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, Assembly member Sardar Berdimuhamedow, was appointed to chair the parliament's legal affairs committee – a move interpreted to be bringing Sardar closer to succeeding Gurbanguly.^[40]
• Uganda: critics believe long-time president Yoweri Museveni has been preparing his son Muhoozi Kainerugaba to succeed him. The President's son was commander of Uganda's military elite Special Forces Group until January 2017 when the President appointed him Senior Adviser to the President for Special Operations, plus since 1998 Muhoozi has gone from the rank of Major to Major-General in quick succession. All of this is leading the succession rumours to swell even more.
• Venezuela: There is a rumor that Nicolás Maduro Guerra, the son of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, is being prepared to succeed his father as Maduro Guerra was named in 2017 as the director of a newly established position, the Director General of Delegations and Presidential Instructions of the Vice President.^[41]

Notes

See also

• List of political families
• Conjugal dictatorship
• Hereditary monarchy
• Nepotism

External links

• Dynasties of the ex-USSR