Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale

The Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale is a logarithmic scale used by astronomers to rate the potential hazard of impact of a near-earth object (NEO). It combines two types of data—probability of impact and estimated kinetic yield—into a single "hazard" value. A rating of 0 means the hazard is equivalent to the background hazard (defined as the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact).[1] A rating of +2 would indicate the hazard is 100 times greater than a random background event. Scale values less than −2 reflect events for which there are no likely consequences, while Palermo Scale values between −2 and 0 indicate situations that merit careful monitoring. A similar but less complex scale is the Torino Scale, which is used for simpler descriptions in the non-scientific media.

As of March 2020, three asteroids have a cumulative Palermo Scale value of above -2: (29075) 1950 DA (-1.42), 2020 DR2 (-1.62), and 101955 Bennu (-1.71). A further three have cumulative Palermo Scale values of above -3: 1979 XB (-2.82), 99942 Apophis (-2.83), and 2000 SG344 (-2.86). 24 more have a cumulative Palermo Scale value of above -4, one of them having been discovered in 2019, and one in 2020.

Scale

The scale compares the likelihood of the detected potential impact with the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact. This average risk from random impacts is known as the background risk. The Palermo Scale value, P, is defined by the equation:

where

  • pi is the impact probability
  • T is the time interval over which pi is considered
  • fB is the background impact frequency

The background impact frequency is defined for this purpose as:

where the energy threshold E is measured in megatons, yr is the unit of T divided by one year.

Positive rating

The near-Earth object (89959) 2002 NT7 was the first near-Earth object detected by NASA's latest NEO program to be given a positive rating on the scale of 0.06,[2] indicating a higher-than-background threat. The value was subsequently lowered after more measurements were taken. 2002 NT7 is no longer considered to pose any risk and was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 1 August 2002.[3]

In September 2002, the highest Palermo rating was that of asteroid (29075) 1950 DA, with a value of 0.17 for a possible collision in the year 2880.[4] By December 2015, the rating had been reduced all the way to −1.42.[5]

For a brief period in late December 2004, with an observation arc of 190 days, asteroid (99942) Apophis (then known only by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) held the record for the highest Palermo scale values, with a value of 1.10 for a possible collision in the year 2029.[6] The 1.10 value indicated that a collision with this object was considered to be almost 12.6 times as likely as a random background event: 1 in 37[7] instead of 1 in 472. With further observation through 2016 there is no significant risk from Apophis at any of the dates in question.

See also

References
  1. "THE PALERMO TECHNICAL IMPACT HAZARD SCALE". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 31 August 2005. Retrieved 14 October 2011.
  2. Dr. David Whitehouse (24 July 2002). "Space rock 'on collision course'". BBC News. Retrieved 28 December 2007.
  3. "Sentry Risk Table - Removed Objects". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Retrieved 7 March 2006.
  4. "Asteroid 1950 DA". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Retrieved 14 October 2011.
  5. "Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring: 29075". cneos.jpl.nasa.gov. Retrieved 20 June 2017.
  6. Daniel Fischer (27 December 2004). "2004 MN4 Earth Impact Risk Summary (computed 27 December 2004)". The Cosmic Mirror. Archived from the original on 14 March 2005. Retrieved 4 November 2011.
  7. "Predicting Apophis' Earth Encounters in 2029 and 2036". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Retrieved 28 December 2007.

The primary reference for the Palermo Technical Scale is "Quantifying the risk posed by potential Earth impacts" by Chesley et al., Icarus 159, 423-432 (2002).

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