(29075) 1950 DA

(29075) 1950 DA, provisional designation 1950 DA, is an asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group, approximately 1.1 kilometers (0.68 miles) in diameter.[4] It once had the highest known probability of impacting Earth.[11] In 2002, it had the highest Palermo rating with a value of 0.17 for a possible collision in 2880.[12] Since that time, the estimated risk has been updated several times. In December 2015, the odds of an Earth impact were revised to 1 in 8,300 (0.012%) with a Palermo rating of −1.42.[11] As of 2018, It is listed on the Sentry Risk Table with the highest cumulative Palermo rating.[13] 1950 DA is not assigned a Torino scale rating, because the 2880 date is over 100 years in the future.

(29075) 1950 DA
Radar image of 1950 DA taken at Arecibo in March 2001, from a distance of 22 LD or 0.052 AU
Discovery [1]
Discovered byCarl A. Wirtanen
Discovery siteLick Obs.
Discovery date23 February 1950
Designations
(29075) 1950 DA
1950 DA · 2000 YK66
NEO · Apollo · PHA [1][2]
Orbital characteristics [2]
Epoch 31 January 2012 (JD 2455957.5)
Uncertainty parameter 0
Observation arc67.96 yr (24,823 d)
Aphelion2.5619 AU
Perihelion0.8350 AU
1.6985 AU
Eccentricity0.5083
2.21 yr (809 d)
315.94°
0° 26m 43.08s / day
Inclination12.175°
356.74°
224.61°
Earth MOID0.0406 AU (15.8169 LD)
Proper orbital elements [3]
Precession of perihelion
13.655 arcsec / yr
Precession of the ascending node
−35.824 arcsec / yr
Physical characteristics
Dimensions1.39 km × 1.46 km × 1.07 km[4]
Mean diameter
Mass>4×1012 kg[lower-alpha 1]
Mean density
>3.5 g/cm3[4]
2.12160±0.00004 h[4]

    Discovery and nomenclature

    1950 DA was first discovered on 23 February 1950 by Carl A. Wirtanen at Lick Observatory.[2] It was observed for seventeen days[5] and then lost because the short observation arc resulted in large uncertainties in Wirtanen's orbital solution. On 31 December 2000, it was recovered at Lowell Observatory and was announced as 2000 YK66 on 4 January 2001.[14] Just two hours later it was recognized as 1950 DA.[5][15]

    Observations
    Asteroid 1950 DA, Arecibo Observatory radar image (coloured version)
    Arecibo radar movie of 1950 DA obtained during 48 minutes (37% of a rotation) on 4 March 2001

    On 5 March 2001, 1950 DA made a close approach to Earth at a distance of 0.0520726 AU (7,789,950 km; 4,840,450 mi).[16] It was studied by radar at the Goldstone and Arecibo observatories from March 3 to 7, 2001.[5]

    The studies showed that the asteroid has a mean diameter of 1.1 km, assuming that 1950 DA is a retrograde rotator.[17] Optical lightcurve analysis by Lenka Sarounova and Petr Pravec shows that its rotation period is 2.1216±0.0001 hours. Due to its short rotation period and high radar albedo, 1950 DA is thought to be fairly dense (more than 3.5 g/cm3, assuming that it has no internal strength) and likely composed of nickel–iron.[4] In August 2014, scientists from the University of Tennessee determined that 1950 DA is a rubble pile that is kept together by van der Waals forces.[18][19]

    The next close approach to Earth by 1950 DA is scheduled to occur on 5 February 2021. However, at that time it will still be nearly half an AU away from Earth making reacquisition observations impractical. The next close approach that presents a good opportunity to observe the asteroid will be the one that occurs on 2 March 2032, when it will only be 0.075 AU from Earth. The following table lists next five close approaches nearer than 0.10 AU.[20]

    DateDistance

    (AU)

    2 March 20320.076
    19 March 20740.095
    10 March 21050.036
    11 March 21360.043
    8 March 21870.035

    Possible Earth impact

    That 1950 DA has one of the best-determined asteroid orbital solutions is due to a combination of:[5]

    • an orbit moderately inclined (12 degrees)[2] to the ecliptic plane (reducing in-plane perturbations);
    • high-precision radar astrometry, which provides its distance and is complementary to the measurements of angular positions;
    • a 68-year observation arc;[2]
    • an uncertainty region controlled by resonance.[5]

    Main-belt asteroid 78 Diana (~125 km in diameter) will pass about 0.003 AU (450,000 km; 280,000 mi) from 1950 DA on 5 August 2150.[5] At that distance and size, Diana will perturb 1950 DA enough so that the change in trajectory is notable by 2880 (730 years later). In addition, over the intervening time, 1950 DA's rotation will cause its orbit to slightly change as a result of the Yarkovsky effect. If 1950 DA continues on its present orbit, it may approach Earth on 16 March 2880, though the mean trajectory passes many millions of kilometres from Earth, so 1950 DA does not have a significant chance of impacting Earth. As of the 7 December 2015 solution, the probability of an impact in 2880 is 1 in 8,300 (0.012%).[11]

    The energy released by a collision with an object the size of 1950 DA would cause major effects on the climate and biosphere, which would be devastating to human civilization. The discovery of the potential impact heightened interest in asteroid deflection strategies.

    See also

    Notes
    1. A reported volume of 1.14 km3 × density of 3.5 g/cm3 yields a mass (m = d × v) of 3.99×1012 kg

    References
    1. "29075 (1950 DA)". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 5 July 2018.
    2. "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: 29075 (1950 DA)" (2018-02-09 last obs.). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 5 July 2018.
    3. "(29075) 1950DA NeoDys – Proper Elements". Retrieved 11 March 2018.
    4. Busch, Michael W.; Giorgini, Jon D.; Ostro, Steven J.; Benner, Lance A. M.; Jurgens, Raymond F.; Rose, Randy; et al. (October 2007). "Physical modeling of near-Earth Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA" (PDF). Icarus. 190 (2): 608–621. Bibcode:2007Icar..190..608B. doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2007.03.032. Retrieved 5 July 2018.
    5. Giorgini, J. D.; Ostro, S. J.; Benner, L. A. M.; Chodas, P. W.; Chesley, S. R.; Hudson, R. S.; et al. (April 2002). "Asteroid 1950 DA's Encounter with Earth in 2880: Physical Limits of Collision Probability Prediction" (PDF). Science. 296 (5565): 132–136. Bibcode:2002Sci...296..132G. doi:10.1126/science.1068191. PMID 11935024. Retrieved 5 July 2018.
    6. Mainzer, A. K.; Bauer, J. M.; Cutri, R. M.; Grav, T.; Kramer, E. A.; Masiero, J. R.; et al. (June 2016). "NEOWISE Diameters and Albedos V1.0". NASA Planetary Data System: EAR-A-COMPIL-5-NEOWISEDIAM-V1.0. Bibcode:2016PDSS..247.....M. Retrieved 5 July 2018.
    7. Rivkin, A. S.; Binzel, R. P.; Bus, S. J. (May 2005). "Constraining near-Earth object albedos using near-infrared spectroscopy". Icarus. 175 (1): 175–180. Bibcode:2005Icar..175..175R. doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2004.11.005.
    8. Dandy, C. L.; Fitzsimmons, A.; Collander-Brown, S. J. (June 2003). "Optical colors of 56 near-Earth objects: trends with size and orbit". Icarus. 163 (2): 363–373. Bibcode:2003Icar..163..363D. doi:10.1016/S0019-1035(03)00087-3.
    9. "LCDB Data for (29075)". Asteroid Lightcurve Database (LCDB). Retrieved 5 July 2018.
    10. "NeoDys Near Earth Objects Dynamic Site" (Physical Info). Retrieved 11 March 2018.
    11. "29075 (1950 DA) Earth Impact Risk Summary". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 11 March 2018.
    12. "Asteroid 1950 DA". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 21 July 2011. Retrieved 14 October 2011.
    13. "Sentry Risk Table". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Retrieved 20 March 2018. (Use Unconstrained Settings)
    14. "MPEC 2001-A22 : 2000 YK66". Minor Planet Center. 4 January 2001. Retrieved 23 February 2018.
    15. "MPEC 2001-A26 : 1950 DA = 2000 YK66". Minor Planet Center. 4 January 2001. Retrieved 23 February 2018.
    16. "JPL Close-Approach Data: 29075 (1950 DA)" (last observation: 2018-02-09; arc: 67.96 years). Retrieved 11 March 2018.
    17. Farnocchia, D.; Chesley, S. R. (February 2014). "Assessment of the 2880 impact threat from Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA". Icarus. 229: 321–327. arXiv:1310.0861. Bibcode:2014Icar..229..321F. doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2013.09.022.
    18. Rozitis, Ben; MacLennan, Eric; Emery, Joshua P. (13 August 2014). "Cohesive forces prevent the rotational breakup of rubble-pile asteroid (29075) 1950 DA" (PDF). Nature. 512 (7513): 174–176. doi:10.1038/nature13632. PMID 25119234.
    19. "UT Research uncovers forces that hold asteroid together". University of Tennessee. 13 August 2014. Retrieved 17 August 2015.
    20. "JPL Small-Body Database Browser". ssd.jpl.nasa.gov. Retrieved 10 September 2019.
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