Next Pakistani general election

General elections are scheduled to be held in Pakistan less than 60 days after the dissolution of the National Assembly, which is set to dissolve on 13 August 2023, unless dissolved earlier: in which case the election shall be held within 90 days after dissolution. This means that the election must be held by or before 12 October 2023.[1]

Next Pakistani general election
on or before 12 October 2023
All 336 seats in the National Assembly
169 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Imran Khan Shehbaz Sharif Bilawal Bhutto Zardari
Party PTI PML (N) PPP
Leader since 25 April 1996 6 March 2018 30 December 2007
Last election 149 seats, 31.82% 82 seats, 24.35% 54 seats, 13.03%
Seats needed 20 87 115
Incumbent Prime Minister

Imran Khan
PTI

Background

2018 elections

Following the elections in 2018, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf led by former cricket captain of the Pakistan national cricket team Imran Khan emerged as the largest party, winning 149 out of a total of 342 seats in the National Assembly of Pakistan. Despite being short of a majority, Independents and smaller parties such as the MQM-P helped Khan to form a government.[2]

During the election campaign, Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML (N)) led by former Chief Minister of Punjab Shehbaz Sharif campaigned on a platform of being “victimised by hidden forces”. Despite opinion polls close to the election showing a close contest, the actual result of the election showed the PTI with a lead of over 50 seats on the PML-N in the directly elected seats, and also gave it a lead of around 7.5 percentage points, despite polls suggesting it only had a lead of up to 4 percentage points. The PML-N was deprived of the chance of forming a government in Punjab, a province seen as its stronghold.[3]

Opposition parties cried foul at the result and claimed that it was rigged.[4]

Electoral system

The 336 seats of the National Assembly consist of 266 elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies,[5] 60 seats are reserved for women and 10 for minority groups. The reserved seats are elected by proportional representation based on the national vote share in the single-member constituencies with a 5% electoral threshold.[6]

Opinion polls

Graph

The following graph depicts the evolution of the standing of each party since August 2018. The source for the data is Roshan Opinion, whose polls can be found in the next section.

Nationwide voting intention
Date Pollster Publisher Sample PTI PML-N PPP MMA TLP Others Lead
22 Feb 2020 Roshan Pakistan[7] Self 4,629 29.1% 30.8% 14.7% 4.8% 2.9% 17.7% 1.9%
19 Jan 2020 Roshan Pakistan[8] Self 4,861 29.5% 30.0% 14.6% 4.4% 3.5% 19.3% 0.5%
10 Dec 2019 Roshan Pakistan[9] Self 4,529 30.2% 30.7% 14.0% 4.1% 2.9% 19.4% 0.5%
11 Nov 2019 Roshan Pakistan[10] Self 4,319 31.5% 28.9% 13.2% 4.8% 2.0% 19.6% 2.6%
13 Oct 2019 Roshan Pakistan[11] Self 4,319 30.2% 29.7% 13.7% 4.7% 1.4% 20.3% 0.5%
18 Sep 2019 Roshan Pakistan[12] Self 4,722 30.3% 29.5% 13.4% 4.8% 2.2% 22.5% 0.8%
15 Aug 2019 Roshan Pakistan[13] Self 5,117 29.8% 30.0% 14.4% 4.8% 2.2% 18.9% 0.2%
18 Jul 2019 Roshan Pakistan[14] Self 4,264 30.8% 29.7% 13.6% 4.3% 2.4% 18.8% 1.1%
19 Jun 2019 Roshan Pakistan[15] Self 4,803 30.9% 28.8% 14.9% 4.3% 1.8% 19.4% 2.1%
24 Jun 2019 Gallup Pakistan[16] Self 1,400 31% 28% 15% 5% 21% 3%
27 May 2019 Roshan Pakistan[17] Self 3,841 33.3% 29.9% 14.2% 4.3% 1.8% 16.5% 3.4%
9 May 2019 Roshan Pakistan[18] Self 3,092 33.6% 28.8% 13.4% 4.4% 1.6% 18.2% 4.8%
1 Mar 2019 Roshan Pakistan[19] Self 3,351 37.7% 26.5% 12.0% 4.1% 1.8% 17.9% 11.2%
6 Feb 2019 Roshan Pakistan[20] Self 2,491 32% 28% 14% 4% 3% 19% 4%
6 Jan 2019 Roshan Pakistan[21] Self 5,905 30% 30% 12% 4% 4% 22% 0%
13 Dec 2018 Roshan Pakistan[22] Self 4,109 29.6% 27.2% 14.6% 4.5% 3.6% 20.6% 2.4%
22 Nov 2018 IPOR[23] IRI 3,991 34% 21% 12% 1% 1% 31% 13%
18 Nov 2018 Roshan Pakistan[24] Self 4,536 31.6% 25.5% 13.7% 4.4% 4.2% 20.6% 6.1%
20 Oct 2018 Roshan Pakistan[25] Self 3,112 30.6% 26.8% 14.5% 3.9% 2.7% 21.5% 3.8%
28 Sep 2018 Roshan Pakistan[26] Self 3,085 33% 25% 15% 4% 23% 8%
9 Sep 2018 Roshan Pakistan[27] Self 4,816 36% 22% 14% 4% 3% 21% 14%
20 Aug 2018 Roshan Pakistan[28] Self 2,463 35% 22% 14% 5% 24% 13%
25 July 2018General electionsECP53,123,73331.82%24.35%13.01%4.85%4.21%21.76%7.47%


Government approval rating
Date Pollster Publisher Sample Approve (Satisfied) Disapprove (Dissatisfied) Net Strongly Approve Approve Disapprove Strongly Disapprove
29 Dec 2018 Gallup Pakistan[29] Self 1,141 51% 46% +5 13% 38% 26% 20%
1 Dec 2018 IPOR Self 2,041 47% 27% +20 17% 30% 18% 9%
28 Nov 2018 Pulse Consultant[30] Geo News 2,019 51% 30% +21 N/A
22 Nov 2018 IPOR[23] IRI 3,991 57% 39% +18 17% 40% 28% 11%
56% 40% +16 16% 40% 28% 12%
03 Sep 2018 Gallup Pakistan[31] Self 1,550 49% 27% +22 N/A

References
  1. "The Constitution of Pakistan, Part VIII: Elections".
  2. "Imran Khan elected as Pakistan's prime minister". www.aljazeera.com.
  3. Butt, Shafiq (2 May 2018). "PML-N to compete against 'hidden forces' in elections: Nawaz".
  4. Amir Wasim, Zulqernain Tahir, with Azfar-ul-Ashfaque (26 July 2018). "PTI delivers knockout punch; six major parties cry foul".CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  5. Electoral system IPU
  6. Pakistan IFES
  7. "Voting Intention as of February 22, 2019". Retrieved 23 February 2020.
  8. "Voting Intention as of January 19, 2019". Retrieved 1 February 2020.
  9. "Voting Intention as of December 10, 2019". Retrieved 1 February 2020.
  10. "Voting Intention as of November 11, 2019". Retrieved 13 November 2019.
  11. "Voting Intention as of October 13, 2019". Retrieved 21 October 2019.
  12. "Voting Intention as of September 18, 2019". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  13. "Voting Intention as of August 15, 2019". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  14. "Voting Intention as of July 18, 2019". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  15. "Voting Intention as of June 19, 2019". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  16. "Public Opinion report on Federal Government and Politics" (PDF). Retrieved 13 July 2019.
  17. "Voting Intention as of May 27, 2019". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  18. "Voting Intention as of May 9, 2019". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  19. "Voting Intention as of March 1, 2019". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  20. "Voting Intention as of February 6, 2019". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  21. "Voting Intention as of January 6, 2019". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  22. "Voting Intention as of December 13, 2018". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  23. "National Survey of Public Opinion in Pakistan" (PDF). Retrieved 17 March 2019.
  24. "Voting Intention as of November 18, 2018". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  25. "Voting Intention as of October 20, 2018". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  26. "Voting Intention as of September 28, 2018". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  27. "Voting Intention as of September 9, 2018". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  28. "Voting Intention as of August 20, 2018". Retrieved 8 October 2019.
  29. http://gallup.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/25.01.2019-English-1.pdf
  30. "Half the country satisfied during 100 days, satisfaction decreased in Punjab and KP from previous govts". Retrieved 23 March 2019.
  31. http://gallup.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/15.11.18-English-4.pdf


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