Augur (software)

Augur allows a user to create a prediction market.[3] Augur resolves these prediction markets in two stages: a prediction market stage and an arbitration stage. In the market stage users are able to trade shares between each other, while in the arbitration stage, the markets outcome is decided. In the arbitration stage, fees are used to subsidize the arbitration process.[4] Augur uses crypto tokens called Reputation (REP) to incentivize reporters on its network to back their reports with tokens. The reputation token holders are entitled to a percentage of the trading fees generated on the platform.[1] Augur's security model has been rigorously quantified.[5] Augur runs on Ethereum.[6]

After a crowdfunding in August 2015, the project launched in July 2018.[7]

Soon after the platform launched, users had created death pools — or assassination markets — on famous people.[2][8][9]

Augur's user numbers dropped off sharply after launch in 2018: from 265 daily users in early July, to 37 on 8 August.[7]

In July 2018, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission noted resemblance of the Augur contracts to binary options, which would fall under its jurisdiction.[2] Augur's decentralised design may allow it to sidestep regulatory difficulties, because Augur is just a protocol that allows users to set up their own prediction market, which developer Joseph Krug says "shift(s) legal responsibility to bettors".[7]

• Peterson J, Krug J, Zoltu M, Williams AK, Alexander S (2018). "Augur: a decentralized oracle and prediction market platform". arXiv:1501.01042 [cs.CR].
• Fröberg E, Ingre G, Knudsen S (2018), Blockchain and Prediction Markets: An Analysis of Three Organizations Implementing Prediction Markets Using Blockchain Technology, and the Future of Blockchain Prediction Market (pdf), KTH Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS)