Swedish general election, 2018

Swedish general election, 2018

9 September 2018

All 349 seats to the Riksdag
175 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout 6,532,063 (87.1%)
Increase 1.3pp

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Stefan Löfven Ulf Kristersson Jimmie Åkesson
Party Social Democratic Moderate Sweden Democrats
Alliance Löfven Cabinet
(Red-Greens)
The Alliance
Leader since 27 January 2012 1 October 2017 7 May 2005
Leader's seat Södermanland County Jönköping County
Last election 113 seats, 31.1% 84 seats, 23.33% 49 seats, 12.86%
Seats before 113 84 49
Seats won 100 70 62
Seat change Decrease 13 Decrease 14 Increase 13
Popular vote 1,830,386 1,284,698 1,135,627
Percentage 28.26% 19.84% 17.53%
Swing Decrease 2.75pp Decrease 3.49pp Increase 4.68pp

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Annie Lööf Jonas Sjöstedt Ebba Busch Thor
Party Centre Left Christian Democrats
Alliance The Alliance Collaboration with Löfven Cabinet The Alliance
Leader since 23 September 2011 6 January 2012 25 April 2015
Leader's seat Jönköping County Västerbotten
Last election 22 seats, 6.1% 21 seats, 5.71% 16 seats, 4.57%
Seats before 22 21 16
Seats won 31 28 22
Seat change Increase 9 Increase 7 Increase 6
Popular vote 557,500 518,454 409,478
Percentage 8.61% 8.0% 6.32%
Swing Increase 2.51pp Increase 2.29pp Increase 1.75pp

  Seventh party Eighth party
 
Leader Jan Björklund Isabella Lövin
Gustav Fridolin
Party Liberals Green
Alliance The Alliance Löfven Cabinet
(Red-Greens)
Leader since 7 September 2007 13 May 2016
21 May 2011
Leader's seat Stockholm County
Last election 19 seats, 5.42% 25 seats, 6.89%
Seats before 19 25
Seats won 20 16
Seat change Increase 1 Decrease 9
Popular vote 355,546 285,899
Percentage 5.49% 4.41%
Swing Increase 0.07pp Decrease 2.48pp

Largest party by district (left) and municipality (right) Red – Social Democratic, Blue – Moderate, Yellow – Sweden Democrats

Prime Minister before election

Stefan Löfven
Social Democratic

Elected Prime Minister

TBD

General elections were held in Sweden on Sunday 9 September 2018 to elect the 349 members of the Riksdag. They in turn will elect the Prime Minister of Sweden.[1] Regional and municipal elections were also held on the same day.

The incumbent red-green coalition (the Social Democrats and Greens government and its backing Left party) won 144 seats, which was 1 seat more than the Alliance coalition but, just as in the previous general election, short of a majority. The Social Democrats' vote share fell to 28.3 percent, its lowest level of support since 1911, although the main opposition Moderates lost even more support. The far-right Sweden Democrats made gains, though less than anticipated.[2][3][4][5][6][7]

The election turnout of 87.18%[8] was the highest in 33 years and 1.38 percentage points higher than the 2014 election.

On 25 September 2018, Löfven lost the vote of no confidence against him and his cabinet. As a result, a new Prime Minister and government will have to be elected. The Löfven Cabinet will stay in power as a caretaker government until the Riksdag has decided on a new government.[9]

Context

2014 budget crisis

Just two months after having formed a minority government, Prime Minister Stefan Löfven announced on the afternoon of 3 December 2014 that he intended to make the formal arrangements for calling an extraordinary election on 29 December 2014 – the earliest date permitted by the constitution.

The election seemed to be necessary after Löfven's Social Democrat-led government lost a vote on the budget by 182 to 153, owing to the Sweden Democrats voting with the opposition, leading to a cabinet crisis.[10] It would have been the first early election since 1958.[11]

However, an agreement between the Social Democrats, Greens, Moderates, Centrists, Liberals and Christian Democrats was signed on 26 December 2014, outlining a series of conditions in order to ensure political stability until at least 2022.[12] The agreement included two main provisions:

  • The candidate for Prime Minister who gathered the most support would be elected. This would apply to both incumbent and new candidates for PM.
  • A government in minority would be allowed to have its budget passed, by the abstention of opposition parties who had signed the agreement.

After negotiations between the Government and the Alliance for Sweden concluded, the snap election was called off on 27 December 2014. On 9 October 2015, following the Christian Democrats' departure from the agreement, the December 2014 agreement was dissolved. However, the Moderates, Centrists and Liberals allowed the Social Democrats minority government to continue to govern.

Campaign issues

In May 2018, the issues that the Swedish voters considered most important were immigration, healthcare and integration.[13] In the days leading up to the election, the most important issue was the environment, followed by immigration and health care.[14] With the polls showing that the Sweden Democrats could be kingmakers there was speculation over possible government coalitions.[15]

Concerns about foreign influence in the election have been raised by the Swedish Security Service and others, leading to various countermeasures.[16][17]

The summer of 2018 saw a rise in violent crime in Sweden; several incidents, including the arson of over 100 cars on 15 August, have caused 10% Swedes to say that "law and order" is the key issue in the upcoming election.[18] While Sweden has faced sporadic gang violence in recent years at the end of summer break for students, violence in Gothenburg, Falkenberg and Trollhättan was said to be on a larger scale.[19] Prime Minister Löfven referred to the August violence as if it was organized "almost like a military operation".[19] In the following days, Twitter accounts connected to Russia tweeted about the fires, according to the Alliance for Securing Democracy intended to influence English-language readers.[20] Non-Swedish media frequently emphasize the events in order to tell a story of a society in decay, along with some negative but restricted reporting around immigration, to describe great gains by the Sweden Democrats; this has been criticized as a "false narrative" and "misreporting" by domestic media.[21][22][23]

Contesting parties

Major parties

The Social Democratic Party (S; Socialdemokraterna) is the largest political party in the Swedish Riksdag, with 113 of the 349 seats. It is the major component of the incumbent Löfven Cabinet, in which it works with the Green Party. Its current leader Stefan Löfven has been Prime Minister of Sweden since 3 October 2014, and has said he will seek a mandate to continue his Löfven Cabinet.

The Moderate Party (M; Moderaterna) is the second-largest party in the Riksdag with 84 seats. It was the largest governing party under Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt from 2006 to 2014. The party is involved alongside three other parties in the Alliance; all four will seek to return to power together. Reinfeldt resigned as party leader after eight years as Prime Minister, and was succeeded as leader by Anna Kinberg Batra on 10 January 2015. Kinberg Batra's decision as de facto leader to enter the budgetary procedure agreement with the left-of-centre cabinet saw sharp disgruntlement from some party districts. The Alliance has more MPs than the government parties, but still finds itself in opposition. Owing to her low opinion polling numbers, Kinberg Batra faced internal pressure from multiple party districts and the Moderate Youth League to resign. She announced her resignation in a morning press conference on 25 August 2017.[24] Former prime minister and Moderate Party leader Carl Bildt was suggested as a replacement after Kinberg Batra resigned; however, despite some party districts supporting his candidacy, he declined the offer.[25] Ultimately, Ulf Kristersson was elected to succeed Kinberg Batra as party leader, during an extra Moderate party conference on 1 October 2017.[26]

The Sweden Democrats (SD; Sverigedemokraterna) is the third-largest party in the Riksdag with 49 seats. In the 2014 general election the party increased its number of seats by 29, becoming the third-largest party. Its leader is Jimmie Åkesson, who is the longest-serving party leader. The other Riksdag parties have repeatedly stated that they will not cooperate with the Sweden Democrats in a future government. An extra general election was called after the Sweden Democrats gave its support to the oppositional Alliance budget (see section '2014 budget crisis'). After the proposed extra election was cancelled, the party advertised itself as the 'only opposition party' and in the following months it saw a sharp rise in support (see section 'Opinion polls').

The Green Party (MP; Miljöpartiet) is the fourth-largest party in the Riksdag with 25 seats. The Green Party is the minor component of the Löfven Cabinet, alongside the Social Democrats. It is the only Swedish party to have two spokespersons, currently Gustav Fridolin (since 2011) who serves as Minister for Education, and Isabella Lövin (since 2016) who serves as Minister for International Development Cooperation. This will be the first time in Swedish history that the Green Party has had its governmental record tested at an election.

The Centre Party (C; Centerpartiet) is the fifth-largest party in the Riksdag with 22 seats. It was a part of the Reinfeldt cabinet from 2006 to 2014, and is involved in the Alliance. The Centre Party has been led by Annie Lööf since 2011. It was subject to public attempts by Löfven to become a cooperation party, but the party traditionally leans towards the Moderate policy positions and stayed within the Alliance after the 2014 election.

The Left Party (V; Vänsterpartiet) is the sixth-largest party in the Riksdag with 21 seats. Its current leader is Jonas Sjöstedt. He has said that the party seeks to participate in a future Red-Green coalition government. The Left Party did not support the Löfven Cabinet because it was not asked to participate in that cabinet following the 2014 general election, but supported its budget that was voted down on 3 December 2014. Following the budgetary agreement, the Left Party is what tips the left-of-centre minority into a larger minority than the Alliance.

The Liberals (L; Liberalerna) is the seventh-largest party in the Riksdag with 19 seats. It was a part of the Reinfeldt cabinet from 2006 to 2014, and is involved in the Alliance. The Liberals have been led by Jan Björklund since 2007; his leadership is being increasingly criticized within the party. Opinion polls in the year after the 2014 election suggested that the party was struggling to recapture its previous level of support. Having been in charge of the school system and integration of migrants, it came under a lot of criticism owing to falling school results and increased segregation in the immigrant-dominated suburbs.

The Christian Democrats (KD; Kristdemokraterna) has been led by Ebba Busch Thor since 2015. It is involved in the Alliance. Despite polling below the 4% electoral threshold for most of the time between the elections, the party saw a boost in support in the time period immediately prior to the election, guaranteeing its presence in the Riksdag (which was seen as essential in order for the Alliance to be able to form a government.). The party held on by a few tens of thousands of votes last time.

Minor parties

Parties with less than 4% of the vote do not get any seat in the Riksdag.

Feminist Initiative (FI; Feministiskt Initiativ) led by former Left Party leader Gudrun Schyman, is the country's ninth-largest party, and is represented in the European Parliament following the 2014 European election. The party received 0.4% of the vote in the election, compared to 3% in the previous election 2014.

The Pirate Party (PP; Piratpartiet) won representation in the 2009–14 European Parliament but its subsequent runs for office have been less successful. It has been mentioned in some polls as the tenth-largest party, but appears to be far from having a chance to break the threshold at a domestic level.

The Alternative for Sweden (Alternativ för Sverige) is a party with currently no representation in the Riksdag. It was formed from members expelled from the Sweden Democrats in 2015, and is led by Gustav Kasselstrand. The party failed to enter the Riksdag in this election.

Electoral system

The Swedish Riksdag is made up of 349 MPs, and all are elected through open list proportional representation on multi-member party lists that are either regional (most major parties) or national (Sweden Democrats). Each of the 29 constituencies has a set number of parliamentarians that is divided through constituency results to ensure regional representation. The other MPs are then elected through a proportional balancing, to ensure that the numbers of elected MPs for the various parties accurately represent the votes of the electorate. The Swedish constitution (Regeringsformen) 1 Ch. 4 § says that the Riksdag is responsible for taxation and making laws, and 1 Ch. 6 § says that the government is held responsible to the Riksdag. This means that Sweden has parliamentarism in a constitutional monarchy—ensuring that the government is responsible to the people's representatives. A minimum of 4% of the national vote is required for a party to enter the Riksdag, alternatively 12% or more within a constituency.

Vote secrecy and party-specific ballots

Election officials are responsible for party-specific ballot papers being present in the voting places for parties that have obtained more than one percent of the votes in the previous parliamentary election.[27] If there is no access to the wanted party-specific ballot paper, a voter may cast a vote by writing in the party name of choice on a blank ballot paper.[28] The voter generally chooses a party-specific ballot in the open and only then marks the ballot they chose in the voting booth.[29]

The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights sent an election expert team of two members to the 2018 general election to examine and assess this system, including in relation to questions of the secrecy of the ballot. The observers are to issue a report eight weeks after the election was held.[29]

Michael Aastrup Jensen, a Liberal Party member of the Danish Parliament, observed the Swedish election in Malmö. He stated that, having observed many elections, including some in Russia and Eastern Europe, he had never seen one nearly as undemocratic as in Sweden, and that the Swedish process was far from what would be allowed even in Eastern European countries. He considered that one problem was the presence of "party soldiers" standing outside the door of the election room, pressing the voters and trying to give them the ballots of their party. There is a bill under consideration by the Riksdag to strengthen ballot secrecy, but Jensen stated that it would not get rid of the party soldiers. Jensen is the chairman of the Danish delegation to the Council of Europe, and he promised to raise the issue there.[30] The neo-nazi organisation Nordic Resistance Movement was reported shouting slogans and filming voters in several election rooms.[31]

There were reports of missing party-specific ballots in some voting districts during the early voting phase.[32][33] On the election day, the Swedish public broadcaster Sveriges Television reported that the ballots of the Sweden Democrats were missing for 2 hours in one Gothenburg district.[34]

Parties

The table below lists parties' 2014 representation in the Riksdag.

Name Ideologies Leader 2014 result
Votes (%) Seats
S Swedish Social Democratic Party
Socialdemokraterna
Social democracy Stefan Löfven 31.0%
113 / 349
M Moderate Party
Moderaterna
Liberal conservatism Ulf Kristersson 23.3%
84 / 349
SD Sweden Democrats
Sverigedemokraterna
Right-wing populism
Jimmie Åkesson 12.9%
49 / 349
MP Green Party
Miljöpartiet
Green politics Isabella Lövin
Gustav Fridolin
6.9%
25 / 349
C Centre Party
Centerpartiet
Liberalism
Agrarianism
Annie Lööf 6.1%
22 / 349
V Left Party
Vänsterpartiet
Socialism Jonas Sjöstedt 5.7%
21 / 349
L Liberals
Liberalerna
Liberalism Jan Björklund 5.4%
19 / 349
KD Christian Democrats
Kristdemokraterna
Christian democracy Ebba Busch Thor 4.6%
16 / 349

Opinion polls

Results

Party Votes % Seats +/−
Social Democratic PartyS1,830,38628.26100−13
Moderate PartyM1,284,69819.8470−14
Sweden DemocratsSD1,135,62717.5362+13
Centre PartyC557,5008.6131+9
Left PartyV518,4548.0028+7
Christian DemocratsKD409,4786.3222+6
LiberalsL355,5465.4920+1
Green PartyMP285,8994.4116−9
Feminist InitiativeFI29,6650.460±0
Alternative for SwedenAfS20,2900.310New
Citizens' CoalitionMED13,0560.200New
Pirate PartyPP7,3260.110±0
DirektdemokraternaDD5,1530.080±0
Landsbygdspartiet OberoendeLPo4,9620.080New
EnhetENH4,6470.070±0
Animal PartyDjuP3,6480.060±0
Christian Values PartyKrVP3,2020.050±0
Nordic Resistance MovementNMR2,1060.030New
Liberala partietKLP1,5040.010±0
Communist Party of SwedenSKP7020.010±0
Basic Income Party6320.010New
Initiative6150.010New
Security PartyTRP5110.010New
Scania PartySKÅ2960.000±0
Norrlandspartiet600.000New
Libertarian Freedom PartyFRP530.000New
European Workers PartyEAP520.000±0
NY Reform320.000New
Common Sense in SwedenCSIS210.000New
Our Country – Sweden90.000New
Reformist Neutral PartyRNP40.000±0
People's Home Sweden20.000New
Gula PartyGup10.000±0
Parties not on the ballot5880.010
Invalid/blank votes58,546
Total6,535,2711003490
Registered voters/turnout7,495,93687.18
Source: VAL

By alliance

Alliance Votes % Seats +/−
Red-Greens (S+MP+V)2,634,73940.68144−15
The Alliance (M+C+L+KD)2,607,22240.26143+2
Sweden Democrats (SD)1,135,62717.5362+13
Invalid/blank votes58,546
Total6,535,2711003490
Registered voters/turnout7,495,93687.18
Source: VAL
Popular vote (by party)
S
28.3%
M
19.8%
SD
17.5%
C
8.6%
V
8.0%
KD
6.3%
L
5.5%
MP
4.4%
Others
1.5%
Popular vote (by coalition)
Red-Greens
40.7%
Alliance
40.3%
SD
17.5%

By municipality

Voter demographics

Voter demographics of the Swedish general election 2018, according to the Swedish Television's post-election poll.[35]

Gender and age
Cohort
Percentage of cohort voting for
Social Democrats Moderates Sweden Democrats Other parties Total
Females31191238100
Males25212331100
18-21 years old22241258100
22-30 years old25221340100
31-64 years old27201934100
65 years old and older35171731100
Source: [36]
Employment
Cohort
Percentage of cohort voting for
Social Democrats Moderates Sweden Democrats Other parties Total
Gainfully employed25211747100
Unemployed31172438100
Permanently outside the labor market3673027100
Students2621845100
Source: [37]
Occupation
Cohort
Percentage of cohort voting for
Social Democrats Moderates Sweden Democrats Other parties Total
Blue-collar workers34142428100
White-collar workers and managers27221228100
Farmers22141638100
Business owners and self-employed13302433100
Source: [38]
Union membership
Cohort
Percentage of cohort voting for
Social Democrats Moderates Sweden Democrats Other parties Total
Blue-collar unions (LO)41112424100
White-collar unions (TCO)32181337100
Professional unions (SACO)2517952100
Source: [39]
Education
Cohort
Percentage of cohort voting for
Social Democrats Moderates Sweden Democrats Other parties Total
Less than nine years of school37113517100
Compulsory comprehensive school37142722100
Secondary school30202327100
Tertiary non-academic education28192429100
College education2622943100
Post-graduate education21151054100
Source: [40]
Public/Private sector employment
Cohort
Percentage of cohort voting for
Social Democrats Moderates Sweden Democrats Other parties Total
Public sector34151536100
Private sector23241934100
Source: [41]
Foreign born
Cohort
Percentage of cohort voting for
Social Democrats Moderates Sweden Democrats Other parties Total
Raised in Sweden28201745100
Raised in Scandinavia outside of Sweden26113627100
Raised in Europe outside of Scandinavia35172226100
Raised outside of Europe4714930100
Source: [42]

Analysis

The disproportionality of the election was 1.8 according to the Gallagher index.

Numerous media sources noted the gains made by the Sweden Democrats,[43][44][45][46][47] tying those gains to the simultaneous rise of right-wing populist parties across Europe.[48][49] However, it was noted that the party did not grow as much as some polls had predicted.[50][51][52][53] While the Social Democrats performed better than expected, the party still saw its worst result since 1908.[49][54][55] According to The Guardian, the growth of the SD "upended perhaps western Europe’s most stable political order,"[56] and other commentators made similar statements.[57] According to Emily Schultheis of Foreign Policy, the SD won an ideological victory, as it "effectively set the terms for debate" and forced its rivals to adopt immigration policies similar to its own,[7] and other reporters made similar observations.[58][59]

The election did not result in a clear victory for any political faction.[47][60][61][62]

The Sweden Democrats performed particularly well in Skåne County, having the highest number of voters in 21 out of the county's 33 municipalities.[63] SVT also found that at least 22 seats in 17 city councils would be empty as the Sweden Democrats won more seats than the number of candidates it had.[64][65] The party received its first mayor, in Hörby Municipality.[66] Despite the Social Democrats' worst result nationwide in decades, they overtook the Moderates in the latter's traditional stronghold of Stockholm city. Additionally, the Social Democrats and the Left Party saw an increase in the number of votes cast in that constituency while the Moderates lost votes; consequently, the Red-Green bloc also overtook the Alliance in the constituency.[67]

Government formation

The election resulted in a hung parliament, with the centre-left and centre-right factions each holding about 40% of the seats, and the Sweden Democrats holding the remainder.[60][61][68] Prime Minister Stefan Löfven stated after the results came in that he would not step down,[69] though Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson called on him to do just that.[70]

Before and immediately after the election, all the other parties ruled out a coalition with the Sweden Democrats. The Social Democrats stated they wanted to continue working with the Greens in their coalition and they favored a S-MP-C-L coalition (167 seats) supported by V (bringing the total number of pro-government MPs up to 195), to avoid working with their main opponents, the Moderates and the Sweden Democrats. The Moderates and Liberals both wanted to form a M-C-KD-L government (143 seats - 32 seats short of a majority). During election debates the Sweden Democrats had stated they were willing to support only an Alliance government in exchange for concessions, and they have said that they want to work with The Alliance to preclude the possibility of another Red-Green government. On the other hand, the party secretary of The Left, Aron Etzler, said his party is interested in participating only in a Red-Green government.

On 12 September, Alliance members invited the Social Democrats to discuss the possibility of forming an Alliance government that would rely on support from the Social Democrats.[62][71][72][73][74]

Prime Minister Stefan Löfven lost the motion of no confidence against him and his cabinet on 25 September 2018, with 142 members of parliament voting to retain Löfven's cabinet and 204 voting against. Löfven stated in a subsequent press conference that he would not step down as Social Democratic party leader and that he was willing to partake in talks regarding the formation of a new government, but insisted that it was ultimately up to the Speaker of the Riksdag. Löfven also stated that he found it completely unbelievable that the Alliance could ever form a government if they keep their promise of not co-operating with the Sweden Democrats.[9][75][76]

Party negotiations for forming a new government commenced on 27 September,[77] and on 2 October the Speaker of the House, Andreas Norlén, announced that he had tasked Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson with forming a government.[78] Kristersson will have two weeks to construct a stable government coalition.[79]

On 14 October, Ulf Kristersson held a press conference, stating that he had notified the Speaker of the Riksdag that he is giving up his attempt at forming a government. Kristersson maintained that he still has the intention of becoming Prime Minister and leading a government consisting of "the entire Alliance, solely the Moderates or those Alliance parties that would be willing to enter into an Alliance government led by myself." He informed the Speaker of the Riksdag that "there is currently no basis for any of these options at this time". The reason for the failure was that the Alliance had fewer seats than the three socialist parties, so the Sweden Democrats (or the Social Democrats) must support government propositions or they would fail. And such need for Sweden Democrat support was not tolerated by the Centre and Liberal parties. They proposed a government including the Social Democrats, which the Moderates rules out. Additional party negotiations will commence on 15 October.[80]

See also

References

  1. see also Basic Laws of Sweden#Instrument of Government
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  3. (now), Kate Lyons; (earlier), Patrick Greenfield; Greenfield, Patrick (9 September 2018). "Swedish election: deadlock for main parties as far right makes gains – as it happened". The Guardian.
  4. Carl Bildt. "Opinion - Sweden's election represents the new normal of European politics". Washington Post.
  5. Chatterjee, Saikat (10 September 2018). "FOREX-Scandinavian currencies lead rebound vs struggling dollar". CNBC.
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  8. https://data.val.se/val/val2018/slutresultat/R/rike/index.html
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