Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2011 by constituency

Various polling organisations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2011 Canadian general election. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Opinion polls have been conducted from the months following the previous general election held in October 2008, and have increased in frequency leading up to the general election.

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.

A total of 20 polls in 17 ridings across 2 provinces was conducted.

Constituency polls

British Columbia

Saanich—Gulf Islands

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
OracleApril 19, 2011HTML3899450±4.9 pp389IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML43396101±0.0 pp64,639Election

Quebec

Beauport—Limoilou

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
CROPApril 27, 2011HTML275363020±4.9 pp400IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML3714123331±0.0 pp49,794Election

Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
CROPApril 27, 2011HTML319352230±4.9 pp400IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML4114132920±0.0 pp50,791Election

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
CROPApril 27, 2011HTML189274330±4.9 pp400IVR
Segma ResearchApril 21, 2011HTML2911233530±4.6 pp432IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML351384120±0.0 pp48,533Election

Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Segma ResearchApril 13, 2011HTML1419114860±4.9 pp435IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML232774030±0.0 pp36,940Election

Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Segma ResearchApril 13, 2011HTML152454950±4.9 pp435IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML183653841±0.0 pp32,268Election

Hull—Aylmer

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Segma ResearchApril 23, 2011HTML1129421320±4.4 pp500IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML1537202250±0.0 pp52,707Election

Jonquière—Alma

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
CROPApril 27, 2011HTML344322530±4.9 pp400IVR
Segma ResearchApril 21, 2011HTML365302630±4.6 pp432IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML53553800±0.0 pp51,395Election

Lévis—Bellechasse

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Segma ResearchApril 16, 2011HTML385232660±5.7 pp300IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML4615112530±0.0 pp54,849Election

Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Segma ResearchApril 16, 2011HTML3512232910±5.7 pp300IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML4713132520±0.0 pp52,732Election

Louis-Hébert

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
CROPApril 27, 2011HTML2213323030±4.9 pp400IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML282493620±0.0 pp58,529Election

Louis-Saint-Laurent

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
CROPApril 27, 2011HTML378371710±4.9 pp400IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML4713102730±0.0 pp50,966Election

Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
CROPApril 27, 2011HTML083128329±4.9 pp400IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML0161332336±0.0 pp46,095Election

Québec

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
CROPApril 27, 2011HTML1510343460±4.9 pp400IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML2618124230±0.0 pp51,067Election

Richmond—Arthabaska

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Cara TelecomApril 21, 2011HTML216204760±4.8 pp420IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML291394631±0.0 pp52,692Election

Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
CROPApril 27, 2011HTML474272020±4.9 pp400IVR
Segma ResearchApril 21, 2011HTML545112820±4.6 pp432IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML441054020±0.0 pp37,307Election

Trois-Rivières

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
CROPApril 27, 2011HTML178422850±4.9 pp400IVR
2008 ElectionOctober 14, 2008HTML241894530±0.0 pp39,579Election

See also

Notes

Notes

1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error.[1] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.[2]
2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.

References

  1. ↑ "MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario's Journalists"". Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. September 16, 2011. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
  2. ↑ American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research, retrieved October 17, 2012
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