Opinion polling for the Mexican general election, 2018

Opinion polling is being carried out prior to the Mexican general election, 2018.

The 2018 Mexican election features nine registered political parties, including the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), National Action Party (PAN), Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), and the newly formed National Regeneration Movement (Morena).

Coalition backgrounds

Todos por México

PRI, which held the presidency from 1929 to 2000 and is currently in power under President Peña Nieto, is primarily a center-right party. It will be contesting the elections in a coalition alongside the Ecological Green Party of Mexico and the New Alliance Party (Mexico) under the coalition "Todos por México" ("Everyone for Mexico").

Por México al Frente

PAN is a center-right, Christian democracy[1] party which held the presidency in 2 sexenios from 2000-2012.

PRD grew out of the PRI in 1986 as the leftists who created the Corriente Democrática (Democratic Current) within PRI split off. It came quite close to claiming the presidency in 2006. Surprisingly, the PRD decided to form a coalition with the right-wing PAN, and they will contest the elections alongside Citizens' Movement in a coalition called "Por México al Frente" ("For Mexico, to the Front").[2][3][4][5]

Juntos Haremos Historia

MORENA, created in 2014 by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, affectionately called AMLO, is a left-leaning party which split from the PRD.[6] It will contest the elections as a coalition with the Labor Party (PT) and the Social Encounter Party (PES), called "Juntos Haremos Historia" ("Together we'll make history").

By coalitions

Pollster Date
Other None Not mentioned
Mitofsky[7] July 2017 21.7% 16.7% 15.9% 5.5% 3.0% 37.2%
Mitofsky August 2017 21.2% 16.4% 14.8% 4% 3.9% 39.7%
Parametría[8] September 2017 32% 23% 15% 14% 16%
Reforma[9] September 2017 24% 31% 28% 8%
México Elige[10] October 2017 22.5% 36.1% 21.8% 11.4% 8.2%
El Financiero[11] November 2017 18% 24% 22% 21% 15%
El Economista[12] December 2017 23.1% 22.6% 21.4% 7.4% 0.6% 24.9%
Parametría[13] January 2018 32% 42% 26% 12% 18%
Arias Consultores[14] January 2018 18.1% 50.1% 15.5% 6.5% 9.8%
SABA[15] 4-12 Feb 2018 12.3% 38.5% 10.3% 11.3% 29%
Revista 32[16] 15-16 Feb 2018 18.1% 46.2% 18.0% 5.8% 11.8%
Revista 32[17] 19-23 Mar 2018 15.9% 44.6% 17.8% 6.6% 15.1%
Parametría[18] 23-28 Mar 2018 25% 36% 20% 7% 5% 5% 2%
Revista 32[19] 23-25 April 2018 18.1% 46.9% 13.6% 4.1% 17.3%

    By candidates (January–June 2018)

    Historical trend of voting intentions for the candidates for the Mexican presidency in 2018.
    Agency Date Obrador Anaya Meade Zavala Rodríguez Other/None
    Parametría[13] January 31% 19% 20% 10% 2% 19%
    SDP Noticias[20] 7-9 Jan 38.1% 17.7% 26.1% 7.9% 2.9% 7.3%
    Mitofsky[21] January 23.6% 20.4% 18.2% 10%
    Focus Asesores[22][23] January 47% 11% 11% 5% 2% 28%
    Arias Consultores[24] 23-25 Jan 56.2% 14.3% 16.3% 6.5% 2.5% 4.1%
    El Universal[25] 19-25 Jan 32% 26% 16% 4% 2% 4.1%
    El Financiero[26] 27-31 Jan 38% 27% 22% 7% 3% 3%
    Parametría[27] 25 Jan-2 Feb 34% 23% 18% 7% 2% 16%
    Mendoza Blanco[28] 2-4 Feb 30% 26% 16% 3% 2% 23%
    SDP Noticias[29] 2-6 Feb 38.4% 19.5% 25.7% 7.2% 2.6% 6.8%
    Mitofksy[30] 9-11 Feb 27.1% 22.3% 18.0%
    Reforma[31] 8-11 Feb 33% 25% 14% 4% 2% 22%
    SABA[32] 4-12 Feb 38.3% 12.5% 10.3% 8.0% 1.9% 29%
    Parámetro[33] 9-11 Feb 30.5% 23.8% 23.3% 3.9% 2.0% 16.5%
    Fox News[34] 9-11 Feb 40% 31% 20% 9%
    Revista 32[35] 15-16 Feb 48.2% 16.3% 17.8% 4.2% 2.5% 10.9%
    Massive Caller[36] February 30.55% 24.78% 15.4% 7.23% 2% 20.04%
    El Pais[37] March 37.8% 29.2% 23.8% 5.7% 2.6%
    Parametría[38] 24 Feb-1 Mar 35% 21% 16% 10% 5% 13%
    Bloomberg[39] 8 March 42.2% 27.4% 20.6% 4% 1.6%
    Indemerc[40] 8-10 March 44.1% 15.1% 10.9% 8.2% 2% 19.7%
    El Financiero[41] 9-14 March 42% 23% 24% 7% 2% 2%
    Arias Consultores[42] 19-23 March 47.8% 14.6% 18.1% 6.2% 13.2%
    Parametría[43] 23-28 March 38% 20% 16% 13%
    Gii 360[44] 30 March-3 April 43% 19% 13% 7% 18%
    Berumen y Asociados[45] 3–5 April 42% 31.1% 21.9% 5%
    SDP Noticias[46] 11–14 April 41.9% 19.7% 22.7% 9% 2.5%
    Reforma[47] 12–15 April 48% 26% 18% 5% 3%
    Bloomberg[48] 15 April 47.8% 26.6% 17.9% 5.1%
    SDP Noticias[49] 25–28 April 41.4% 24.7% 22.2% 4.8% 3.1% 3.8%
    Revista 32[50] 23–25 April 50.9% 17.8% 13.5% 2.2% 2.8% 13.8%
    La Silla Rota[51] 25-28 April 45% 29% 18% 5% 3%
    Reforma[52] 26-30 April 48% 30% 17% 3% 2%
    Varela y Asociados[53] 28 April- 4 May 47.5% 33.1% 16.2% 1.7% 1.4%
    El Financiero[54] 26 April- 2 May 46% 26% 20% 5% 3%
    Ipsos[55] 11-15 May 43% 24% 16% 2% 15%
    SDP Noticias[56] 18-19 May 42.4% 25.8% 24.2% 0.6% 3.3% 3.7%
    Eje Central[57] 21-22 May 49% 26% 21% 4%
    Reforma[58] 24-27 May 52% 26% 19% 4%
    Parametría[59] 23-29 May 54% 24% 17% 3% 2%
    Varela y Asociados[60] 30 May-4 June 50.6% 29.5% 17.6% 2.2%
    BGC[61] 31 May-4 June 47% 29% 21% 3%
    De Las Heras Demotecnia[62] 10-13 June 50% 25% 19% 5% 1%
    Arias Consultores[63] 13-15 June 62% 19.8% 13.7% 3.3%
    Reforma[64] 20-24 June 51% 27% 19% 3%
    BGC[65] 22-25 June 49% 26% 21% 4%
    El Financiero[66] 15-23 June 54% 21% 22% 3%
    Presidential election 1 July 53.19% 22.28% 16.41% 0.06% 5.23%

    By candidates (April–December 2017)

    Pollsters Date Obrador Zavala Chong Mancera Rodríguez Anaya Ávila Valle Nuño Meade Other None Not mentioned
    El Financiero April 2017 29% 32% 27% 8% 4%
    El Universal April 2017 33% 27% 13% 6% 4%
    32% 16% 6% 20%
    32% 26% 6% 13%
    GEA-ISA June 2017 18% 6% 4% 2% 7% 5% 4%
    Reforma July 2017 31% 26% 15% 7% 1% 15% 5%
    30% 26% 14% 6% 5% 1% 14% 4%
    30% 27% 14% 9% 1% 14% 5%
    32% 17% 8% 17% 1% 20% 5%
    33% 17% 16% 8% 1% 19% 6%
    El Financiero July 2017 30% 28% 24% 10% 8%
    Mitofsky August 2017 25.9% 19.7% 14.8% 4.4% 4.6%
    24.9% 15.4% 5.2% 3.8% 20.5%
    26.3% 15.7% 4.5% 4.9% 19.8%
    25.9% 18.7% 5.1% 5% 13.6%
    26.2% 19.3% 5% 4.5% 12.8%
    25.6% 4.9% 5.2% 20.1% 13.1%
    México Elige[10] October 2017 36.7% 14.7% 19.6% 5.3% 2.2%
    Reforma November 2017 31% 8% 2% 19% 17% 1% 10% 12%
    GCE[67][68] December 2017 27.8% 9.7% 6.3% 4.2% 9.2% 21.5% 0.3% 7.5% 13.5%
    Massive Caller[69] December 2017 27.2% 9% 9% 18.1% 20.4% 4.3% 18.2%

    By political parties

    Pollster Date
    		Other No-one Not mentioned
    Parametría August 2015 29% 23% 9% 21% 8% 5% 2% 3%
    GEA-ISA March 2016 33% 16% 7% 7% 4% 17% 18%
    Mitofsky March 2016 21.5% 16.4% 10.8% 11.7% 0.6% 1.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.5% 4.3% 14% 16.7%
    Mitofsky May 2016 22.3% 18.6% 8.7% 12.1% 0.8% 1.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.9% 4.6% 28.2%
    GEA-ISA June 2016 28% 19% 5% 11% 6% 11% 21%
    El Financiero June 2016 29% 28% 8% 19% 1% 3% 2% 3% 1% 6%
    Mitofsky July 2016 19.6 20% 8.1% 12.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9% 1% 1.1% 2.8% 30.9%
    Reforma August 2016 22% 27% 6% 18% 5% 3% 11% 8%
    GEA-ISA September 2016 22% 23% 8% 9% 7% 15% 15%
    Parametría September 2016 27% 30% 10% 21% 2% 5% 1% 2% 2% 3%
    Mitofsky September 2016 19.5% 20.2% 7.8% 12.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 0.9% 1% 3.3% 31.2%
    El Financiero November 2016 28% 29% 11% 18% 5%
    Reforma December 2016 22% 27% 5% 22% 3% 5% 11% 5%
    Massive Caller January 2017 12.8% 20.48% 5.5% 21.68% 1.6% 8.5% 5.2% 23.9%
    Reforma January 2017 17% 24% 10% 27% 2% 4% 10% 6%
    El Financiero February 2017 22% 25% 9% 25% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 6%
    Mitofsky February 2017 13% 18.8% 5.1% 15.9% 0.8% 1.4% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 3.0% 38.5%
    México Elige February 2017 12.4% 21.0% 1.2% 36.9% 0.2% 0.4% 3% 0.5% 0.6% 14.5%
    GEA-ISA March 2017 19% 20% 7% 15% 5% 17% 18%
    El Financiero April 2017 28% 29% 10% 21% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 4%
    Excelsior April 2017 19% 21% 8% 26% 2% 24%
    El Universal April 2017 13% 27% 6% 33% 4%
    El Universal April 2017 13% 23% 6% 24% 3% 4% 4% 4% 2% 17%
    Parametría[13] January 2018 25% 24% 5% 30% 12% 18%
    SDP Noticias[29] 2-6 Feb 2018 20.6% 13.6% 2.8% 36.0% 1.1% 2.7% 3.1% 2.4% 1.3% 11.2% 5.4%
    SABA[70] 4-12 Feb 9.4% 9.9% 1.7% 30.4% 0.4% 0.8% 1.6% 0.1% 8.4% 0.6% 15.7% 16.8%
    Parametría[18] 23-28 Mar 15% 15% 5% 29% 3% 2% 3% 3% 1% 6% 1% 2% 15%
    Gii 360[71] 30 March-3 April 2018 12% 14% 2% 34% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 6% 26%

    References

    1. ↑ Loaeza, Soledad (2003). The National Action Party (PAN): From the Fringes of the Political System to the Heart of Change. Christian Democracy in Latin America: Electoral Competition and Regime Conflicts. Stanford University Press. p. 196.
    2. ↑ "PAN, PRD y MC avalan Frente pero sin definir sus alcances". Retrieved 5 September 2017.
    3. ↑ "Se confirma el Frente Opositor: PAN, MC y PRD irán en alianza para 2018". DiarioCambio.com.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 September 2017.
    4. ↑ "El PAN, el PRD y Movimiento Ciudadano constituirán un frente común para 2018". Expansión (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 September 2017.
    5. ↑ "Registran Frente Amplio ante el INE". El Universal (in Spanish). 5 September 2017. Retrieved 5 September 2017.
    6. ↑ "The Parties". The Mexico Institute's 2015 Elections Guide. 2014-09-17. Retrieved 2017-04-19.
    7. ↑
    8. ↑ "Preferencias Electorales previas al inicio de la elección presidencial". parametria.com.mx. September 2017. Retrieved 12 September 2017.
    9. ↑ "Emerge Frente Ciudadano por México". gruporeforma-blogs.com. 13 September 2017. Retrieved 14 September 2017.
    10. 1 2 "Encuesta Facebook: AMLO, líder; Margarita, puntera en PAN y Frente antes de renunciar". SDPnoticias.com (in Spanish). 5 October 2017. Retrieved 8 October 2017.
    11. ↑ Moreno, Alejandro (17 November 2017). "Mancera, a la cabeza en las preferencias del Frente". El Financiero=. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
    12. ↑ Hernández, Leopoldo (11 December 2017). "Hacia 2018, arranque cerrado a tres fuerzas". El Economista. Retrieved 12 December 2017.
    13. 1 2 3 "AMLO lidera encuesta entre presidenciales". El Siglo de Durango. January 4, 2018. Retrieved January 8, 2018.
    14. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Quinta encuesta". Revista 32. January 26, 2018. Retrieved January 27, 2018.
    15. ↑ "Encuesta Política Nacional" (PDF). Saba Consultores. February 17, 2018.
    16. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Sexta encuesta". Revista 32. February 26, 2018.
    17. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Séptima encuesta". Revista 32. March 25, 2018.
    18. 1 2 "PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL PARA PRESIDENTE DE LA REPÚBLICA". Parametría. April 2, 2018.
    19. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Octava Encuesta". Revista 32. May 1, 2018.
    20. ↑ "AMLO amplía su ventaja". SDP Noticias. January 11, 2018. Retrieved January 11, 2018.
    21. ↑ "López Obrador lidera las encuestas para las presidenciales de México". Economía Hoy. January 17, 2018. Retrieved January 17, 2018.
    22. ↑ "Intención de voto para Presidente de la República". Focus Asesores. January 24, 2018. Retrieved January 27, 2018.
    23. ↑ "Abre AMLO "la puerta" a Gil Zuarth". Focus Asesores. January 25, 2018. Retrieved January 27, 2018.
    24. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Quinta encuesta". El Siglo de Durango. January 26, 2018. Retrieved January 28, 2018.
    25. ↑ "AMLO lidera preferencias rumbo a comicios:: encuesta". El Siglo de Durango (in Spanish). January 29, 2018. Retrieved January 29, 2018.
    26. ↑ "AMLO, con más de 10 puntos de ventaja sobre Anaya y Meade". El Financiero (in Spanish). February 6, 2018. Retrieved February 6, 2018.
    27. ↑ "Líder izquierdista mexicano tiene ventaja de dos dígitos en carrera presidencial: encuesta". Reuters (in Spanish). February 7, 2018. Retrieved February 8, 2018.
    28. ↑ "Encuesta de Clima Político Nacional: Reporte Gráfico" (PDF). Mendoza y Blanco (in Spanish). February 14, 2018. Retrieved February 14, 2018.
    29. 1 2 "Encuesta Facebook: AMLO, 38.4%; Meade, 25.7%; Anaya, 19.5%". SDP Noticias (in Spanish). February 9, 2018. Retrieved February 9, 2018.
    30. ↑ "Mexican leftist extends lead in presidential race, poll shows". Reuters. February 14, 2018. Retrieved February 14, 2018.
    31. ↑ "AMLO lidera encuesta del diario Reforma; Anaya acorta distancias". Forbes. February 15, 2018.
    32. ↑ "Encuesta Política Nacional" (PDF). Saba Consultores. February 17, 2018.
    33. ↑ "AMLO encabeza, le sigue Meade y Anaya, según encuesta". Político.mx. February 19, 2018.
    34. ↑ "'Bernie Sanders of Mexico' Leads Country's Latest 2018 Presidential Poll". Fox News. February 19, 2018.
    35. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Sexta encuesta". Revista 32 (in Spanish). February 26, 2018.
    36. ↑ "Encuesta virtual sobre aspirantes". Diario de Yucatan (in Spanish). February 27, 2018.
    37. ↑ "Anaya, el candidato mexicano que menos rechazo genera en las encuestas". El Pais (in Spanish). March 2, 2018.
    38. ↑ "AMLO aumenta ventaja sobre Anaya y Meade: encuesta de Parametría". Forbes México (in Spanish). March 7, 2018.
    39. ↑ "Anti-Government Backlash Saps Meade's Support". Bloomberg. March 8, 2018.
    40. ↑ "AMLO con 44.1 de preferencias: encuesta Indemerc". El Imparcial. March 15, 2018.
    41. ↑ "Se despega AMLO; Meade y Anaya pelean el segundo sitio". El Financiero. March 22, 2018.
    42. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Séptima Encuesta". Revista 32. March 27, 2018.
    43. ↑ "AMLO amplía ventaja; Anaya y Meade, estancados: encuesta Parametría". Forbes. April 2, 2018.
    44. ↑ "Elecciones presidenciales 2018". Gii 360. April 6, 2018.
    45. ↑ "Elecciones presidenciales 2018". El Universal. April 9, 2018.
    46. ↑ "Encuesta en Facebook: AMLO aumenta su ventaja; Meade sigue en segundo, pero 'Bronco' le resta puntos". SDP Noticias. April 15, 2018.
    47. ↑ "Consolida AMLO ventaja". Reforma. April 18, 2018.
    48. ↑ "AMLO alcanza máximo histórico, según Bloomberg: 47.80%; Meade, Anaya y Margarita retroceden" (in Spanish). Vanguardia. April 18, 2018.
    49. ↑ "Encuesta en Facebook: AMLO, líder; Zavala se desploma y beneficia a Anaya; Meade se mantiene" (in Spanish). SDP Noticias. April 29, 2018.
    50. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Octava Encuesta" (in Spanish). SDP Noticias. May 1, 2018.
    51. ↑ "Tras debate, AMLO conserva ventaja clara" (in Spanish). La Silla Rota. May 2, 2018.
    52. ↑ "Mantiene AMLO ventaja; crece Ricardo Anaya" (in Spanish). Reforma. May 2, 2018.
    53. ↑ "7a encuesta presidenciables 2018 AMLO Y ANAYA SUBEN Y PELEAN. MEADE CAE" (in Spanish). Reforma. May 8, 2018.
    54. ↑ "AMLO rebasa con 20 puntos al segundo lugar; lo impulsa el norte" (in Spanish). El Financiero. May 14, 2018.
    55. ↑ "Leftist's lead grows ahead of Mexico presidential vote: poll". Reuters. May 17, 2018.
    56. ↑ "Encuesta en Facebook: Rumbo al segundo debate AMLO se fortalece; Anaya cae y Meade lo empata" (in Spanish). SDP Noticias. May 19, 2018.
    57. ↑ "Anaya pierda cuatro puntos tras el segundo debate" (in Spanish). Eje Central. May 24, 2018.
    58. ↑ "AMLO aventaja 2 a 1 a Ricardo Anaya en encuesta de Reforma" (in Spanish). Forbes México. May 30, 2018.
    59. ↑ "AMLO lidera con 54% de preferencias; Anaya baja a 24%, Meade se queda en 17%: Parametría" (in Spanish). Animal Político. May 31, 2018.
    60. ↑ "VIII Encuesta Nacional" (in Spanish). Campaigns and Elections México. June 6, 2018.
    61. ↑ "Preferencias electorales para la elección de Presidente de la República" (in Spanish). Beltrán, Juárez y Asociados. June 6, 2018.
    62. ↑ "AMLO encabeza encuesta de Demotecnia, le sigue Anaya" (in Spanish). Político.mx. June 19, 2018.
    63. ↑ "Preferencias electorales para la elección de Presidente de la República" (in Spanish). Revista 32. June 16, 2018.
    64. ↑ "AMLO lidera aunque pierde 1 punto, le sigue Anaya: Reforma" (in Spanish). Político.mx. June 27, 2018.
    65. ↑ "Preferencias por candidatos a la Presidencia de la República" (PDF) (in Spanish). BGC. June 27, 2018. line feed character in |title= at position 30 (help)
    66. ↑ "Última encuesta de El Financiero: AMLO, 32 puntos arriba del segundo, 54%; Meade 22%; Anaya 21%" (in Spanish). Sinembargo. June 26, 2018.
    67. ↑ "Intención de voto 2018" (PDF). gabinete.mx/. Retrieved 5 December 2017.
    68. ↑ "Meade, en segundo lugar pero sube opinión desfavorable 9%: encuesta GCE". Quadratín México. 5 December 2017. Retrieved 5 December 2017.
    69. ↑ "Meade y Anaya empatados, AMLO encabeza para 2018: encuesta". Político MX. 4 December 2017. Retrieved 6 December 2017.
    70. ↑ "Encuesta Política Nacional" (PDF). Saba Consultores. February 17, 2018.
    71. ↑ "Elecciones presidenciales 2018". Parametría. April 6, 2018.
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