Next Catalan regional election

Next Catalan regional election
No later than 4 February 2022
All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia
68 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls

 
Leader Inés Arrimadas Carles Puigdemont[lower-alpha 1] Oriol Junqueras[lower-alpha 2]
Party Cs JuntsxCat ERC–CatSí
Leader since 3 July 2015 13 November 2017 17 September 2011
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona
Last election 36 seats, 25.4% 34 seats, 21.7% 32 seats, 21.4%
Seats needed 32 34 36
 
Leader Miquel Iceta Jéssica Albiach Carles Riera
Party PSC–PSOE CatComú–Podem CUP
Leader since 19 July 2014 18 September 2018 15 November 2017
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona
Last election 17 seats, 13.9% 8 seats, 7.5% 4 seats, 4.5%
Seats needed 51 60 64
 
Leader TBD
Party PP
Leader since —
Leader's seat —
Last election 4 seats, 4.2%
Seats needed 64
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Catalonia
Incumbent President

Quim Torra
Independent (JuntsxCat)

The next Catalan regional election will be held no later than Friday, 4 February 2022, to elect the 13th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

After the 2017 election, pro-Catalan independence parties secured a parliamentary majority. As a result, Citizens leader Inés Arrimadas announced she would not try to form a government on her own, instead waiting and see how negotiations between pro-independence parties evolved.[1] As the candidate of the most-voted party within the pro-independence bloc, Carles Puigdemont was proposed as candidate for re-election as President of the Government.[2] However, facing arrest on possible charges of rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds, the Catalan parliament delayed Puigdemont's investiture after Constitutional Court ruled that he could not assume the presidency from abroad.[3][4][5] Unable to return to Spain, Puigdemont stepped his claim aside in favour of detained activist Jordi Sànchez.[6] However, as Spain's Supreme Court did not allow Sànchez to be freed from jail to attend his investiture ceremony,[7][8] he ended up giving up his candidacy in favour of former Catalan government spokesman Jordi Turull, who was also under judicial investigation.[9][10]

Turull was defeated in the first ballot of a hastily convened investiture session held on 22 March, and was among the thirteen senior Catalan leaders charged with rebellion by the Supreme Court the next day over their roles in the 2017 unilateral referendum and subsequent declaration of independence. As a result, Turull and several others were put in preventive detention without bail, while Marta Rovira—ERC's general secretary and deputy leader to jailed Oriol Junqueras—fled the country to Switzerland.[11][12] The European Arrest Warrant against Puigdemont was reactivated,[13] resulting in him being caught and detained by German police while crossing the Danish–German border on his way to Belgium, returning from a visit to Finland.[14][15]

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Catalonia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Government.[16][17] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Catalans abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[18]

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method may result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[19] Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona. Each constituency is allocated a fixed number of seats: 85 for Barcelona, 17 for Girona, 15 for Lleida and 18 for Tarragona.[16][17][20]

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, parties, federations or coalitions that have not obtained a mandate in the Parliament at the preceding election are required to secure the signature of at least 0.1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they are seeking election, whereas groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of 1 percent of electors. Electors are barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[21][22]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The President of the Government is required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 21 December 2017, which meant that the legislature's term will expire on 21 December 2021. The election is required to be called no later than 6 December 2021, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Friday, 4 February 2022.[16][17]

The President of the Government has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[16][17]

Parties and leaders

Below is a list of the main parties and coalitions which contested the election:

Parties and coalitions Ideology Candidate
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) Liberalism Inés Arrimadas
Together for Catalonia (JuntsxCat) Catalan independentism, Republicanism Carles Puigdemont
Republican Left–Catalonia Yes (ERC–CatSí) Left-wing nationalism, Catalan independentism Oriol Junqueras
Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE) Social democracy, Federalism Miquel Iceta
Catalonia in Common–We Can (CatComú–Podem) Eco-socialism, Democratic socialism Jéssica Albiach
Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) Anti-capitalism, Catalan independentism Carles Riera
People's Party (PP) Conservatism, Christian democracy Xavier García Albiol

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 68 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead
NC Report/La Razón[p 1][p 2] 24–28 Sep 2018 1,000 ? 23.7
35		 16.2
25		 23.9
37		 15.8
20		 6.5
8		 3.9
4		 5.3
6		 0.2
electoPanel/electomania.es[p 3] 16–18 Sep 2018 ? ? 21.9
30		 14.9
22		 27.7
42		 16.1
22		 7.0
8		 7.0
9		 3.2
2		 5.8
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 4] 22–30 Aug 2018 500 ? 22.3
31/33		 18.4
25/27		 25.1
35/37		 14.9
20/22		 7.3
8/9		 5.5
6/7		 5.1
5/6		 2.8
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 5] 23 Jun–14 Jul 2018 1,500 70 21.4
29/30		 17.9
27/29		 24.0
35/37		 15.5
19/21		 7.8
8/10		 7.0
8/10		 3.8
3/4		 2.6
GESOP/El Periódico[p 6] 2–11 Jul 2018 1,445 ? 21.5
29/30		 16.5
26/27		 23.5
35/36		 15.5
21/22		 8.5
9/10		 6.5
8/9		 4.5
4/5		 2.0
GAD3/La Vanguardia[p 7] 14–21 Jun 2018 800 75 24.0
34		 20.1
30		 24.3
35		 14.6
19		 7.0
8		 4.5
5		 4.1
4		 0.3
electoPanel/electomania.es[p 8] 3–7 Jun 2018 ? ? 21.3
29		 20.4
29		 20.7
29		 16.3
23		 7.6
10		 7.6
10		 4.9
5		 0.8
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 9] 7–27 Apr 2018 1,500 68 24.5
33/34		 19.8
30/32		 20.5
29/32		 11.0
13/15		 9.5
11		 9.0
11		 4.1
3/4		 4.0
NC Report/La Razón[p 10][p 11] 17–20 Apr 2018 1,000 76.9 26.0
38		 18.7
31		 21.8
32		 15.2
18		 5.4
7		 3.8
4		 4.5
5		 4.2
NC Report/La Razón[p 12][p 13] 22–28 Mar 2018 1,000 76.8 25.7
38		 19.4
32		 21.0
31		 14.9
18		 6.0
7		 4.2
4		 4.8
5		 4.7
Apolda/CEO[p 14] 10–30 Jan 2018 1,200 68 24.7
33/35		 19.5
29/31		 22.9
33/35		 12.5
15/16		 7.4
8		 6.0
7/8		 4.6
3/4		 1.8
NC Report/La Razón[p 15][p 16] 15–19 Jan 2018 1,000 75.2 24.9
37		 22.4
34		 20.6
31		 14.3
17		 6.9
7		 3.5
4		 5.9
5		 2.5
2017 regional election 21 Dec 2017 N/A 79.1 25.4
36		 21.7
34		 21.4
32		 13.9
17		 7.5
8		 4.5
4		 4.2
4		 3.7

Notes

  1. ↑ Currently fled from justice in Belgium.
  2. ↑ Currently in preventive detention in Lledoners (Barcelona).

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ "Cataluña: El independentismo perdería la mayoría absoluta en las urnas". La Razón (in Spanish). 30 September 2018.
  2. ↑ "Radiografía del voto. Sondeo septiembre 2018". La Razón (in Spanish). 30 September 2018.
  3. ↑ "ElectoPanel Cataluña: ERC se destaca y los independentistas afianzan su mayoría". electomania.es (in Spanish). 28 September 2018.
  4. ↑ "ERC ganaría las elecciones catalanas y el separatismo conservaría la mayoría absoluta". El Español (in Spanish). 10 September 2018.
  5. ↑ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2018" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 20 July 2018.
  6. ↑ "ERC superaría a Cs y a JxCat y ganaría las elecciones". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 15 July 2018.
  7. ↑ "Vuelco electoral: el PSC ganaría las generales y Esquerra, las catalanas". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 24 June 2018.
  8. ↑ "ElectoPanel Cataluña: triple empate en cabeza con el PSC al alza". electomania.es (in Spanish). 20 June 2018.
  9. ↑ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2018" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 11 May 2018.
  10. ↑ "Los independentistas perderían la mayoría". La Razón (in Spanish). 23 April 2018.
  11. ↑ "Sondeo abril 2018" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 23 April 2018.
  12. ↑ "Cataluña: los independentistas pierden tres escaños y no logran la mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 April 2018.
  13. ↑ "Sondeo marzo 2018" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 2 April 2018.
  14. ↑ "Enquesta sobre context polític a Catalunya. 2018" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 23 February 2018.
  15. ↑ "Los constitucionalistas ganarían dos escaños un mes después del 21-D". La Razón (in Spanish). 21 January 2018.
  16. ↑ "Radiografía del voto. Sondeo enero 2018" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 21 January 2018.
Other
  1. ↑ Piña, Raúl (27 December 2017). "Arrimadas no intentará la investidura para evitar el desgaste ante el PP". El Mundo (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 6 January 2018.
  2. ↑ "Catalonia MPs elect separatist speaker as parliament reconvenes". 17 January 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2018 – via www.bbc.com.
  3. ↑ "Catalonia's Puigdemont cannot lead from abroad, court rules". 27 January 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2018 – via www.bbc.com.
  4. ↑ "Puigdemont could return to Catalonia in attempt to retake office". 27 January 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2018 – via www.theguardian.com.
  5. ↑ "Catalan parliament delays vote on leader but backs Puigdemont". 30 January 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2018 – via www.theguardian.com.
  6. ↑ "Catalonia Spain: Fugitive Puigdemont abandons presidency". 1 March 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2018 – via www.bbc.com.
  7. ↑ "Catalonia Spain: Judge refuses to release Jordi Sanchez for investiture". 9 March 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2018 – via www.bbc.com.
  8. ↑ "Catalan leader cannot leave jail to attend debate, court rules". 9 March 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2018 – via www.theguardian.com.
  9. ↑ "Catalonia crisis: Jailed activist Jordi Sanchez drops candidacy". 21 March 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2018 – via www.bbc.com.
  10. ↑ "Catalan parties propose third potential leader in race against courts". 22 March 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2018 – via www.theguardian.com.
  11. ↑ "Spanish court remands Catalan presidential candidate in custody". 23 March 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2018 – via www.theguardian.com.
  12. ↑ "Spain Catalonia: Protesters clash with police after court ruling". 24 March 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2018 – via www.bbc.com.
  13. ↑ "Spain Catalonia: Ex-leader Puigdemont 'avoids Finnish arrest'". 24 March 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2018 – via www.bbc.com.
  14. ↑ "Carles Puigdemont: Former Catalan president 'detained'". 25 March 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2018 – via www.bbc.com.
  15. ↑ "Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont held by German police". 25 March 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2018 – via www.theguardian.com.
  16. 1 2 3 4 "Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia of 2006". Organic Law No. 6 of 19 July 2006. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
  17. 1 2 3 4 "Organic Act 6/2006 of the 19th July, on the Reform of the Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia" (PDF). parlament.cat. Parliament of Catalonia. Retrieved 8 August 2017.
  18. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  19. ↑ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  20. ↑ "Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia of 1979". Organic Law No. 4 of 18 December 1979. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
  21. ↑ "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  22. ↑ "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
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