The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity

Ord places our time within the broad sweep of human history: showing how far humanity has come in 2,000 centuries, and where we might go if we survive long enough. He outlines the major transitions in our past—the Agricultural, Scientific, and Industrial Revolutions. Each is characterised by dramatic increases in our power over the natural world, and together they have yielded massive improvements in living standards. During the twentieth century, with the detonation of the atomic bomb, humanity entered a new era. We gained the power to destroy ourselves, without the wisdom to ensure that we avoid doing so. This is what Ord calls "the Precipice", and how we navigate this period will determine whether humanity has a long and flourishing future, or no future at all. Ord introduces the concept of existential risk—risks that threaten to destroy humanity's long-term potential. He shows how the case for safeguarding humanity from these risks draws support from a range of moral perspectives. Yet it remains grossly neglected—humanity spends more each year on ice cream than it does on protecting its future.[3]

Ord explores the science behind the risks we face. In Natural Risks, he considers threats from asteroids and comets, supervolcanic eruptions, and stellar explosions. He shows how we can use humanity's 200,000 year history to place strict bounds on how high the natural risk could be. In Anthropogenic Risks, he looks at risks we have imposed on ourselves in the last century, such as nuclear war, extreme climate change, and environmental damage. In Future Risks, he turns to threats that are on the horizon from emerging technologies, focusing in detail on engineered pandemics, unaligned artificial intelligence, and dystopian scenarios.[3]

Ord surveys the risk landscape and gives his own estimates for each risk.[4] He also provides tools for thinking about how they compare and combine, and for prioritising between risks. He estimates that nuclear war and climate change each pose more risk than all the natural risks combined, and that risks from emerging technologies are higher still. Altogether, Ord believes humanity faces a 1 in 6 chance of existential catastrophe by the end of the century. He argues that it is in our power to end these risks today, and to reach a place of safety. He outlines a grand strategy for humanity, provides policy and research recommendations, and shows what individuals can do. The book ends with a vision of humanity's potential, and what we might hope to achieve if we navigate the risks of the next century.[3]