Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election
Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament (2017–present) in the lead up to the 2020 New Zealand general election. Very few polls have been conducted compared to previous electoral cycles.[1] The two regular polls are Television New Zealand (1 News), conducted by Colmar Brunton, and MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub) Reid Research, with less frequent polls from Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date. The current Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017. The 2020 New Zealand general election will take place on Saturday, 19 September 2020.
Party vote and key events
Graphical summary
The first graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for all political parties that are routinely included by polling companies. The second graph shows parties that received between less than 10.0% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and are routinely included by polling companies.
Individual polls
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.
The parties are the National Party (NAT), Labour Party (LAB), New Zealand First (NZF), Green Party (GRN), ACT, The Opportunities Party (TOP), Māori Party (MRI) and New Conservative (NCP).
Date[nb 1] | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | NZF | GRN | ACT | TOP | MRI | NCP | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20–24 Jun 2020 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 38 | 50 | 1.8 | 6 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 12 |
27 Apr–24 May 2020 | Roy Morgan Research | 894 | 26.5 | 56.5 | 2.5 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 | 1.5 | – | 30 |
22 May 2020 | Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party and Leader of the Opposition. | ||||||||||
16–20 May 2020 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,003 | 29 | 59 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 30 |
8–16 May 2020 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 30.6 | 56.5 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 25.9 |
14 May 2020 | The lockdown ends and the 2020 Budget is delivered. | ||||||||||
Apr 2020 | Roy Morgan Research | – | 30.5 | 55 | 2.5 | 7 | 2.5 | – | – | – | 24.5 |
26 March 2020 | New Zealand commences a nationwide lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. | ||||||||||
Mar 2020 | Roy Morgan Research | – | 37 | 42.5 | 3 | 11.5 | 3.5 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
8–12 Feb 2020 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,004 | 46 | 41 | 3.3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 5 |
Feb 2020 | Roy Morgan Research | – | 37 | 40.5 | 5 | 10.5 | 3.5 | – | – | – | 3.5 |
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 43.3 | 42.5 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
28 Jan 2020 | Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces that the election will take place on 19 September 2020. | ||||||||||
Jan 2020 | Roy Morgan Research | – | 40 | 40 | 2.5 | 10.5 | 3 | – | – | – | Tie |
23–27 Nov 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,006 | 46 | 39 | 4.3 | 7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 7 |
7–11 Nov 2019 | YouGov/Stuff | 1,005 | 38 | 41 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | – | 3 |
5–9 Oct 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,008 | 47 | 40 | 4.2 | 7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 7 |
2–9 Oct 2019 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 43.9 | 41.6 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1 | 2.3 |
20–24 Jul 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,003 | 45 | 43 | 3.3 | 6 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 2 |
4–8 Jun 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,002 | 44 | 42 | 5 | 6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2 |
30 May – 7 Jun 2019 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 37.4 | 50.8 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1 | 13.4 |
30 May 2019 | The 2019 Budget is delivered. | ||||||||||
6–10 Apr 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,009 | 40 | 48 | 4.3 | 6 | 0.7 | – | 0.5 | 0.4 | 8 |
15–23 Mar 2019 | Business NZ Reid Research | 1,000 | 41.3 | 49.6 | 2.3 | 3.9 | – | – | – | – | 8.3 |
15 Mar 2019 | Christchurch shootings targeting mosques kill 51 people and injure a further 49. Terror threat level is raised from low to high. | ||||||||||
9–13 Feb 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,006 | 42 | 45 | 3 | 6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 3 |
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 41.6 | 47.5 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 5.9 |
24–28 Nov 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,008 | 46 | 43 | 4 | 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | – | 3 |
15–19 Oct 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,006 | 43 | 45 | 5 | 7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 2 |
2 Aug 2018 | Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave. | ||||||||||
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 45 | 42 | 5 | 6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 3 |
21 Jun 2018 | Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister. | ||||||||||
17–24 May 2018 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000[2] | 45.1 | 42.6 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2.5 |
19–23 May 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 45 | 43 | 4.2 | 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2 |
17 May 2018 | The 2018 Budget is delivered. | ||||||||||
7–11 Apr 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 44 | 43 | 5 | 6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1 |
8 Apr 2018 | Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.[3] | ||||||||||
27 Feb 2018 | Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.[4] | ||||||||||
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 43 | 48 | 2.6 | 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 5 |
13 Feb 2018 | Bill English announces he will stand down as National leader and resign from Parliament.[5] | ||||||||||
18–28 Jan 2018 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 44.5 | 42.3 | 3.8 | 6 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
27 Nov – 10 Dec 2017 | Roy Morgan Research | – | 40.5 | 37 | 8 | 10 | 0.5 | – | – | – | 3.5 |
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 46 | 39 | 5 | 7 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | – | 7 |
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 | Roy Morgan Research | 887 | 40.5 | 39.5 | 5 | 10 | 0.5 | 2 | 1.5 | – | 1 |
26 Oct 2017 | Jacinda Ardern is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.[6] | ||||||||||
2–15 Oct 2017 | Roy Morgan Research | 894 | 46 | 31 | 6.5 | 11 | 0.5 | 2 | 1.5 | – | 15 |
23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result[7] | N/A | 44.4 | 36.9 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 7.6 |
UMR and Curia polls
These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.
Date[nb 1] | Polling organisation | NAT | LAB | NZF | GRN | ACT | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
26 May – 1 Jun 2020 | UMR Research | 30 | 54 | 5 | 4 | – | 24 |
21–27 April 2020 | UMR Research | 29 | 55 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 26 |
14 April 2020 | Curia | 31 | 49 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 18 |
8 April 2020 | UMR Research | 35 | 49 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
17 Feb 2020 | UMR Research | 38 | 42 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 4 |
2 Feb 2020 | Curia | 39 | 41 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
23 Jul 2019 | UMR Research | 38 | 42 | – | 9 | – | 4 |
9 Nov 2018 | UMR Research | 37 | 46 | – | – | – | 9 |
23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result[7] | 44.4 | 36.9 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 0.5 | 7.5 |
Preferred Prime Minister
Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as Prime Minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.
Individual polls
Date[nb 1] | Polling organisation | Sample size | Jacinda Ardern | Todd Muller | Simon Bridges | Judith Collins | Winston Peters | James Shaw | David Seymour | Bill English | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20–24 Jun 2020 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 54 | 13 | 0.4 | 2 | 2 | – | – | – | 41 |
26 May – 1 Jun 2020 | UMR Research | – | 65 | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 52 |
22 May 2020 | Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party. | ||||||||||
16–20 May 2020 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,003 | 63 | 0.2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 58 |
8–16 May 2020 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 59.5 | – | 4.5 | 3.1 | – | – | – | – | 51 |
21–27 Apr 2020 | UMR Research | – | 65 | – | 7 | 7 | 3 | – | – | – | 58 |
8–12 Feb 2020 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,004 | 42 | – | 11 | 3 | 3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 31 |
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 38.7 | – | 10.6 | – | – | – | – | – | 28.1 |
23–27 Nov 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,006 | 36 | – | 10 | 4 | 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | – | 26 |
5–9 Oct 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,008 | 38 | 0.2 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 29 |
2–9 Oct 2019 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 38.4 | – | 6.7 | 5.2 | – | – | – | – | 31.7 |
20–24 Jul 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,003 | 41 | 0.1 | 6 | 6 | 2 | – | 0.4 | 0.2 | 35 |
4–8 Jun 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,002 | 45 | – | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 39 |
30 May – 7 Jun 2019 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 49 | – | 4.2 | 7.1 | – | – | – | – | 41.9 |
6–10 Apr 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,006 | 51 | – | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 46 |
9–13 Feb 2019 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,006 | 44 | – | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 38 |
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000 | 41.8 | – | 5.0 | 6.2 | – | – | – | – | 35.6 |
24–28 Nov 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,008 | 39 | – | 7 | 6 | 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 32 |
15–19 Oct 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,006 | 42 | – | 7 | 5 | 4 | 0.1 | – | 1 | 35 |
2 Aug 2018 | Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave. | ||||||||||
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 40 | – | 10 | 2 | 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 30 |
21 Jun 2018 | Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister. | ||||||||||
17–24 May 2018 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000[2] | 40.2 | – | 9 | 3.7 | 4.6 | – | – | 4.2 | 31.2 |
19–23 May 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 41 | – | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 29 |
7–11 Apr 2018 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 37 | – | 10 | 2 | 5 | – | 0.3 | 2 | 27 |
8 Apr 2018 | Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.[3] | ||||||||||
27 Feb 2018 | Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.[4] | ||||||||||
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 41 | – | 1 | 0.4 | 4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 20 | 21 |
18–28 Jan 2018 | Newshub Reid Research | 1,000[2] | 37.9 | – | 0.5 | – | 5.7 | 0.1 | – | 25.7 | 12.2 |
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 37 | – | 0.3 | 0.7 | 5 | 0.4 | – | 28 | 9 |
Government approval rating
Individual polls
Date[nb 1] | Polling organisation | Sample size | Right direction | Wrong direction | Do not know | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 | 1 News Colmar Brunton | 1,007 | 51 | 26 | 23 | 25 |
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 | Roy Morgan Research | 887 | 66.5 | 20 | 13.5 | 46.5 |
24 Oct – 1 Nov 2017 | Horizon Research | 1,068 | 49 | 24 | 28 | 21 |
2–15 Oct 2017 | Roy Morgan Research | 894 | 58.5 | 27.5 | 14 | 31 |
Forecasts
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no changes to electorate seats each party holds (ACT retains Epsom, Labour retains Waiariki, etc.) unless there is a specific reason to assume change. It is also assumed the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National, and that Botany will be returned to National. Other parties that do not pass the 5% threshold are assumed to not to win an electorate and therefore gain no seats.
Radio New Zealand takes a "poll of polls" average to produce their forecast. The New Zealand Herald bases theirs on a predictive model incorporating poll data as well as past election results and past poll accuracy.[8] Newshub and 1 News produce projections based on their own polls only.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority. This happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but they formed a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.
Party | 2017 election result | Radio NZ[9] 5 Jun 2018 poll of polls |
Stuff YouGov[10] 7–11 Nov 2019 poll |
Newshub Reid Research[11] 8–16 May 2020 poll |
Roy Morgan[12] 27 Apr – 24 May 2020 poll |
1 News Colmar Brunton[13] 20–24 Jun 2020 poll | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National | 56 | 57 | 47 | 39 | 34 | 47 | |
Labour | 46 | 54 | 51 | 72 | 73 | 62 | |
NZ First | 9 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Green | 8 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | |
ACT | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | |
Seats in Parliament | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | |
Possible government formation(s) | National–NZ First (65) | Labour coalition (62) | Labour coalition (61) | Labour (72) | Labour (73) | Labour (62) | |
Labour–Green–NZ First (63) | |||||||
Note: Forecasted seats are currently calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results. |
See also
Notes
- These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
- 75% of respondents were polled before Bill English announced his resignation.
References
- Michael Appleton (5 November 2018). "Why the drought in New Zealand opinion polling matters". The Spinoff. Archived from the original on 5 November 2018. Retrieved 5 November 2018.
- "TV3 poll results". Reid Research. Archived from the original on 28 May 2018. Retrieved 27 May 2018.
- "Marama Davidson elected new Greens co-leader". Newshub. 8 April 2018. Archived from the original on 8 April 2018. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
- "Simon Bridges is National Party's new leader, Paula Bennett remains deputy". The New Zealand Herald. 27 February 2018. Archived from the original on 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
- "Former PM Bill English resigns as National Party leader". Newshub. 13 February 2018. Archived from the original on 13 February 2018. Retrieved 13 February 2018.
- Hurley, Emma (26 October 2017). "As it happened: Jacinda Ardern sworn in as Prime Minister". Newshub. Archived from the original on 27 October 2017. Retrieved 27 October 2017.
- "Official Count Results – Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2017. Archived from the original on 7 October 2017. Retrieved 24 October 2017.
- Harkanwal Singh (28 August 2017). "Herald election forecasts explained". The New Zealand Herald.
- Colin James (5 June 2018). "No Budget lift for Labour in polls but support for PM still strong". RNZ.
- Henry Cooke (25 November 2019). "Labour ahead while National dips below 40 in new Stuff poll". Stuff.
- O'Brien, Tova (18 May 2020). "Newshub-Reid Research Poll: Jacinda Ardern goes stratospheric, Simon Bridges is annihilated". Newshub. MediaWorks TV. Retrieved 18 May 2020.
- "PM Jacinda Ardern ascendant as Labour support (56.5%) is now more than double National (26.5%) three months from NZ Election". Roy Morgan. 1 June 2020.
- "National jumps in support with new leader, Labour still able to govern alone - 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll". 1 News. TVNZ. 25 June 2020.