2020 Trinidad and Tobago general election

The 2020 Trinidad and Tobago general election will be held after the currently elected 11th Trinidad and Tobago Republican Parliament is dissolved or expires. The current Parliament was elected on 7 September 2015. The last possible date for the next general election to be held is 23 December 2020.[2][3]

2020 Trinidad and Tobago general election
On or before 23 December 2020
All 41 seats in the House of Representatives
21 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Keith Rowley Kamla Persad-Bissessar Carolyn Seepersad-Bachan
Party PNM UNC COP
Alliance ⁠⁠COP—⁠MSJ—NSA[1]
Leader since 26 May 2010 24 January 2010 19 November 2017
Leader's seat Diego Martin West Siparia –
Last election 23 seats, 51.69% 17 seats, 39.60% 1 seat, 6.02%
Current seats 23 17 1
Seats needed 4 20
Map of the seats to be contested in the election. Tobago's electorates are shown on the left, Trinidad's electorates on the right.
Incumbent Prime Minister

Keith Rowley
PNM

Voters will elect 41 members to the House of Representatives by first-past-the-post voting.

After the previous election, the People's National Movement, led by Prime Minister Keith Rowley formed a majority government. The main opponent to the People's National Movement government is the United National Congress, led by Kamla Persad-Bissessar. The Congress of the People is the sole other party in Parliament, represented by a single MP.


Electoral system

The 41 members of the House of Representatives are elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies. Registered voters must be 18 years and over, must reside in an electoral district/constituency for at least two months prior to the qualifying date, be a citizen of Trinidad and Tobago or a Commonwealth citizen residing legally in Trinidad and Tobago for a period of at least one year.[4]

If one party obtains a majority of seats, then that party is entitled to form the Government, with its leader as Prime Minister. If the election results in no single party having a majority, then there is a hung parliament. In this case, the options for forming the Government are either a minority government or a coalition government.

Parties and candidates

Political parties registered with the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC) can contest the general election as a party.

The leader of the party commanding a majority of support in the House of Representatives is the person who is called on by the president to form a government as Prime Minister, while the leader of the largest party or coalition not in government becomes the Leader of the Opposition.

The People's National Movement and the United National Congress have been the two biggest parties, in addition to having supplied every Prime Minister since 1991.

The following registered parties are contesting the general election:

Party Founded Political position and ideology Leader(s) Leader since Leader's seat Last election Current
seats		 Contested seats
% party vote Seats
PNM1955Centre to centre-left

Liberalism, Social liberalism, Nationalism

 Keith RowleyMay 2010Diego Martin West
51.69%
23 / 41 (56%)
23 / 41 (56%)
41 seats in Trinidad and Tobago
UNC1989Centre-left

Social democracy, Third Way, Civic nationalism

 Kamla Persad-BissessarJanuary 2010Siparia
39.60%
17 / 41 (41%)
17 / 41 (41%)
39 seats in Trinidad[5]
COP2006Centre-left

Reformism

 Carolyn Seepersad-BachanNovember 2017–
6.02%
1 / 41 (2%)
1 / 41 (2%)
MSJ2010Centre-left to left-wing

Democratic socialism, Social democracy, Labourism, Direct democracy

 David AbdulahJanuary 2012––––
PDP2016Tobagonian nationalism, FederalismWatson DukeJuly 2016– [n 1]not founded––
Green2019Centre-left

Green politics

 Dr Everold HoseinSeptember 2019–not founded––
Patriotic Front2019Centre-left to left-wing

Left-wing nationalism, Economic nationalism, Environmentalism

 Mickela PandayMay 2019–not founded––
Progressive2019Centre to centre-left

Progressivism, Decentralization

 Nikoli EdwardsJune 2019–not founded––
OTV2019Tobagonian interests Hochoy CharlesOctober 2019–not founded––

Marginal seats

The following lists identify and rank seats by the margin by which the party's candidate finished behind the winning candidate in the 2015 election.

For information purposes only, seats that have changed hands through subsequent byelections have been noted. Seats whose members have changed party allegiance are ignored.

     = appears in two lists
Marginal seats by party (with winning parties and margins from the 2015 Trinidad and Tobago general election)
PNM PP Independent (Watson Duke)
Marginal
1 Barataria/San Juan 3.18% 1 Moruga/Tableland 2.53% 1   Tobago East 53.78%
2 Chaguanas East 7.95% 2 Saint Joseph 8.33% Safe
3 Pointe-à-Pierre 8.39% 3 La Horquetta/Talparo 15.56%
4 Mayaro 14.05% 4 Tunapuna 19.13%
5 Cumuto/Manzanilla 15.95% 5 Toco/Sangre Grande 19.20%
6 Fyzabad 18.92% 6 San Fernando West 19.39%
7 Caroni Central 26.11% 7 Point Fortin 20.94%
8 Tabaquite 31.12% 8 Lopinot/Bon Air West 28.10%
9 Saint Augustine 33.57% 9 La Brea 33.45%
10 Couva North 34.17% 10 D'Abadie/O'Meara 34.20%
11 Princes Town 35.60% 11 San Fernando East 37.33%
12 Couva South 38.83% 12 Arima 40.12%
13 Caroni East 44.79% 13 Diego Martin North/East 41.40%
14 Oropouche West 48.70% 14 Diego Martin West 55.32%
15 Siparia 51.60% 15 St. Ann's East 56.55%
16 Oropouche East 60.02% 16 Diego Martin Central 59.77%
17 Naparima 65.53% 17 Port of Spain South 60.81%
18 Chaguanas West 76.14% 18 Tobago East 60.88%
Safe 19 Arouca/Maloney 63.10%
20 Port of Spain North/St. Ann's West 65.62%
21 Tobago West 67.24%
22 Laventille East/Morvant 76.84%
23 Laventille West 81.07%
Safe
Source: Parliamentary Elections, 2015 Final Results – Candidates Vote Count

    Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
    Retiring incumbent Electoral District Term in office Date announced
    Surujrattan Rambachan UNC Tabaquite 2010-2020 14 August 2019[6]
    Fuad Khan UNC Barataria/San Juan 1995-2007; 2010–2020 9 November 2019[7]
    Ganga Singh UNC Chaguanas West 1995-2007 (Caroni East); 2015–2020 8 March 2020[8]
    Maxie Cuffie PNM La Horquetta/Talparo 2015–2020 13 May 2020[9]

    Candidates by constituency

    People in bold represent cabinet ministers and the deputy speaker. Party leaders are italicized. The symbol † indicates MPs who are not running again.

    Trinidad
    Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
    PNM UNC COP Other
           
    Arima Pennelope Beckles-Robinson Flora Singh   Anthony Garcia
    Arouca/Maloney Camille Robinson-Regis   Camille Robinson-Regis
    Barataria/San Juan Jason 'JW' Williams Saddam Hosein   Fuad Khan
    Caroni Central Reyad Ali   Bhoendradatt Tewarie
    Caroni East Sharon Archie   Tim Gopeesingh
    Chaguanas East Clarence Rambharat   Fazal Karim
    Chaguanas West Rackeal Bissoon Dinesh Rambally   † Ganga Singh
    Couva North Sharda Satram   Ramona Ramdial
    Couva South Rajendra Rampersad   Rudranath Indarsingh
    Cumuto/Manzanilla Ronney Lochan   Christine Newallo-Hosein
    D'Abadie/O'Meara Ancil Antoine Maurice Hoyte   Ancil Antoine
    Diego Martin Central Symon De Nobrega John Ricardo Laquis   Darryl Smith
    Diego Martin North/East Colm Imbert Eli Zakour   Colm Imbert
    Diego Martin West Keith Rowley Marsha Riley-Walker   Keith Rowley
    Fyzabad Solange De Souza   Lackram Bodoe
    La Brea   Nicole Olivierre
    La Horquetta/Talparo Foster Cummings   †Maxie Cuffie
    Laventille East/Morvant Adrian Leonce   Adrian Leonce
    Laventille West Fitzgerald Hinds   Fitzgerald Hinds
    Lopinot/Bon Air West Marvin Gonzales   Cherrie Ann Crichlow-Cockburn
    Mayaro Bunny Mahabirsingh   Rushton Paray
    Naparima Randy Sinanan   Rodney Charles
    Oropouche East Clifford Rambharose   Roodal Moonilal
    Oropouche West Lea Ramoutar   Vidia Gayadeen-Goopeesingh
    Point Fortin Kennedy Richards Jr. Taharqa Obika   Edmund Dillon
    Pointe-à-Pierre Daniel Dookie   David Lee
    Port of Spain North/St. Ann's West Stuart Young Darren Garner   Stuart Young
    Port of Spain South Cleopatra Borel Curtis Orr   Marlene McDonald
    Princes Town Sharon Baboolal   Barry Padarath
    Moruga/Tableland Winston 'Gypsy' Peters Michelle Benjamin   Lovell Francis
    San Fernando East Brian Manning   Randall Mitchell
    San Fernando West Faris Al-Rawi Sean Sobers Nikoli Edwards (Progressive)

    Jowelle de Souza (Ind.)

    		   Faris Al-Rawi
    Siparia Rebecca Dipnarine Kamla Persad-Bissessar   Kamla Persad-Bissessar
    St. Ann's East Nyan Gadsby-Dolly Kenya Charles   Nyan Gadsby-Dolly
    St. Augustine Renuka Sagramsingh-Sookal   Prakash Ramadhar
    St. Joseph Terrence Deyalsingh Ahloy Hunte   Terrence Deyalsingh
    Tabaquite Michael Seales   † Surujrattan Rambachan
    Toco/Sangre Grande Roger Munroe Nabila Greene   Glenda Jennings-Smith
    Tunapuna Esmond Forde David Nakhid   Esmond Forde

    Tobago
    Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
    PNM PDP OTV Other
           
    Tobago East Ayanna Webster-Roy Watson Duke   Ayanna Webster-Roy
    Tobago West Shamfa Cudjoe Tashia Grace Burris   Shamfa Cudjoe

    Opinion polling

    The North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) has commissioned opinion polling for the next general election regularly sampling the electorates' opinions.

    Preferred Prime Minister
    Date[nb 1] Firm Interview Mode Sample Size Persad-Bissessar Rowley Lead
    March 2020 NACTA n/a n/a 45% 43% 2%
    ^ Remainder were "undecided".


    Satisfaction
    Date[nb 1] Firm Interview Mode Sample Size Persad-Bissessar Rowley
    Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
    31 May 2020 NACTA n/a n/a n/a n/a 53% n/a
    March 2020 NACTA n/a n/a 55% n/a 46% n/a
    1–7 September 2019 SBS n/a n/a n/a n/a 50% 38%
    8 March 2019 NACTA Face-to-face 540 42% 44% 40% 47%
    24 September 2017 NACTA Face-to-face 390 42% n/a 40% n/a
    1–3 September 2017 H.H.B. & Associates Telephone 301 43% 38% 32% n/a
    July 2017 NACTA Face-to-face 410 43% n/a 41% n/a
    June 2017 NACTA Face-to-face 380 43% n/a 42% n/a
    30 August – 5 September 2016 SBS Telephone 601 n/a n/a 51% n/a
    ^ Remainder were "undecided".






    Government direction
    Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Interview Mode Sample size Right direction Wrong direction Lead
    24 September 2017 NACTA Face-to-face 390 n/a 89 n/a
    1–3 September 2017 H.H.B. & Associates Telephone 301 n/a 83 n/a
    July 2017 NACTA Face-to-face 410 n/a 85 n/a
    June 2017 NACTA Face-to-face 380 n/a 83 n/a




    Seat projections
    Date[nb 1] Pollster Sample
    size    		 PNM UNC COP Other Majority
    6 May 2020 Ancil Dennis becomes Chief Secretary of Tobago[10][11]
    12 Mar 2020 The first case of COVID-19 is confirmed in Trinidad and Tobago, pre-campaigning partially suspended on 13 March[12][13]
    13 Mar 2020 COP, MSJ and NSA agree to form a coalition[14]
    11 Feb 2020 Kelvin Charles announces his resignation as Chief Secretary of the Tobago House of Assembly and that Tracy Davidson-Celestine will be appointed as a councillor
    26 Jan 2020 2020 Tobago Council of the People's National Movement election; Tracy Davidson-Celestine is elected leader of the Tobago Council of the People's National Movement
    2 Dec 2019 2019 Trinidadian local elections
    August 2019 NACTA – 23 18 0 0 5
    April 2019 NACTA – 26 15 0 0 11
    March 2019 NACTA 540 25 16 0 0 9
    September 2018 NACTA – 23 18 0 0 5
    16 July 2018 Barataria and Belmont East Local Government Bye-Elections
    19 Nov 2017 Carolyn Seepersad-Bachan is elected leader of the COP[15][16]
    15 Aug 2017 Anirudh Mahabir resigns as leader of the COP[17][18]
    23 Jan 2017 2017 Tobago House of Assembly election; Kelvin Charles becomes Chief Secretary of Tobago
    28 Nov 2016 2016 Trinidadian local elections
    10 Jul 2016 Anirudh Mahabir is elected leader of the COP[19]
    3 Jul 2016 Kelvin Charles is elected leader of the Tobago Council of the People's National Movement[20]
    17 Feb 2016 Prakash Ramadhar resigns as leader of the COP[21]
    7 December 2015 Auzonville/Tunapuna and Malabar South Local Government Bye-Elections
    7 Sep 2015 2015 election – 23 17 1 0 5

    See also

    Footnotes
    1. Watson Duke sits as an Assembly Member in the Tobago House of Assembly for Belle Garden East/Roxborough/Delaford.
    1. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.

    References
    1. "Smaller TT parties agree on coalition". Trinidad and Tobago Newsday. 13 March 2020. Retrieved 15 March 2020.
    2. "December elections?". 16 January 2020. Retrieved 18 January 2020.
    3. "Imbert: UNC's claim on local gov't elections 'nonsense'". Trinidad and Tobago Newsday. 31 May 2019. Retrieved 18 January 2020.
    4. Registering to Vote TT Connect
    5. "UNC: We have the best line-up". Trinidad Express Newspapers. Retrieved 28 May 2020.
    6. "Rambachan Bows Out Of Politics". Caribbean Communications Network.
    7. Sambrano, Chester. "Fuad Khan bows out of politics". Retrieved 10 November 2019.
    8. "15 UNC MPs seeking re-election in 2020 polls". Trinidad and Tobago Newsday. 8 March 2020. Retrieved 15 March 2020.
    9. "Cuffie not returning as candidate in upcoming General Elections". Trinidad and Tobago Guardian. 14 May 2020. Retrieved 14 May 2020.
    10. "Dennis is youngest Chief Secretary". Trinidad and Tobago Newsday. 6 May 2020. Retrieved 8 May 2020.
    11. "Dennis, 33, makes THA history". Trinidad Express Newspapers. Retrieved 8 May 2020.
    12. "Political parties halt activities over covid19". Trinidad and Tobago Newsday. 14 March 2020. Retrieved 15 March 2020.
    13. "Two major parties put election campaigning on hold". Trinidad Express Newspapers. Retrieved 15 March 2020.
    14. "Smaller TT parties agree on coalition". Trinidad and Tobago Newsday. 13 March 2020. Retrieved 15 March 2020.
    15. Ram, Ryan. "Seepersad-Bachan Elected New Leader of COP | THE WEST INDIAN ONLINE". Retrieved 2 February 2020.
    16. "Carolyn Seepersad Bachan is the new political leader of the C.O.P | I955 FM". Retrieved 2 February 2020.
    17. Parsanlal, Nneka. "COP Leaders Resign". Caribbean Communications Network. Retrieved 1 February 2020.
    18. "COP leaders resign". Retrieved 1 February 2020.
    19. "COP elects Dr Anirudh Mahabir as new political leader". www.guardian.co.tt. Retrieved 2 February 2020.
    20. "New PNM Tobago Leader". Caribbean Communications Network. Retrieved 2 February 2020.
    21. "Prakash quits as COP leader". The Trinidad Guardian Newspaper. 19 February 2016. Retrieved 1 February 2020.
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