2020 Bolivian general election

Snap general elections in Bolivia are scheduled to be held on 6 September 2020.[1] Initially they were scheduled to be held on 3 May 2020,[2] after the sequence of events that led to the installation of an interim government on 10 November 2019. However, they were postponed due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.[3] All major parties agreed with this measure and that a date for the new election would be chosen by the legislative assembly based on a public health evaluation at a later date.[4][5]

2020 Bolivian general election
6 September 2020
 
Nominee Luis Arce Carlos Mesa Jeanine Áñez
Party MAS-IPSP FRI MDS
Alliance - Civic Community [lower-alpha 1] Juntos[lower-alpha 2]
Running mate David Choquehuanca Gustavo Pedraza Samuel Doria Medina
 
Nominee Luis Fernando Camacho Chi Hyun Chung Jorge Quiroga
Party Independent FPV MNR
Alliance Creemos[lower-alpha 3] - Libre 21[lower-alpha 4]
Running mate Marco Pumari Leopoldo Chui Tomasa Yarhui
 
Nominee Feliciano Mamani María de la Cruz Bayá
Party PAN-BOL ADN
Alliance - -
Running mate Ruth Nina Remberto Siles
Department winner
Incumbent Interim President

Jeanine Áñez
MDS
Bolivia
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On 22 June 2020, Áñez approved a law passed by both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate to set a date for the election for 6 September 2020 with elected authorities in place by mid-to-late November 2020.[6][7]

Background
Main articles: 2016 Bolivian constitutional referendum, 2019 Bolivian general election, 2019 Bolivian protests, and 2019 Bolivian political crisis
2019 Bolivian political crisis
Causes
Effects
Events
Elections
Bolivia portal
2019 Latin American protests

On 10 November 2019, after 19 days of civil protests following the disputed election results of October 2019 and the release of a report from the OAS, which alleged irregularities in the electoral process, the military and the police of Bolivia forced president Evo Morales to resign. After General Williams Kaliman made the military's request for Morales's resignation public, Morales complied, accompanied by other resignations by high-level politicians throughout the day, some citing fears for the safety of their families. The government of Mexico offered political asylum to Morales the following day, which Morales accepted a day afterwards.[8][9]

As Vice-President Álvaro García Linera, President of the Senate Adriana Salvatierra and President of the Chamber of Deputies Víctor Borda, had already resigned, there existed no explicitly constitutionally-designated successors. Furthermore, the First Vice President of the Senate, Rubén Medinaceli, had also resigned.[10] This left Jeanine Áñez, the Second Vice President of the Senate, as the highest-ranking official still in office and prompted her to announce that she would be willing to ascend to the presidency on an interim basis in order to call for new elections. Thus, on 12 November 2019 Áñez took temporary charge of the Senate of Bolivia, thereby formally placing herself in the line of succession as acting President of the Senate, and on this basis proceeded to declare herself the Constitutional President of the country. Her accession to office was formally legitimized by a decision of the Plurinational Constitutional Tribunal later the same day, which stated that she had lawfully assumed office ipso facto, in accordance with the precedent laid out by Constitutional Declaration 0003/01 of 31 July 2001.[11][12]

On 20 November, Evo Morales offered to not run as a presidential candidate if he was allowed to return to Bolivia and conclude his term.[13]

The same day, the interim government presented a bill that aimed to forge a path to new elections. The two chambers congress were expected to debate the bill which would annul the 20 October election and appoint a new electoral board within 15 days of its passage, paving the way for a new vote.[14] The bill, drafted jointly by Movement for Socialism (MAS) and anti-Morales legislators, was approved on 23 November; it also prohibited Morales from participating in the fresh election.[15] In exchange, Áñez's government agreed to withdraw the armed forces from all protest areas (although some servicemen were still permitted to stay at some state companies to "prevent vandalism"), revoke her decree which granted the army immunity from criminal prosecution, release arrested pro-Morales protesters, protect lawmakers and social leaders from attacks and provide compensation for the families of those killed during the crisis. She approved the bill shortly thereafter.[16]

On 5 December, the president of the interim government Jeanine Áñez stated that she would not be a candidate or support any candidate.[17] This was further reiterated on 15 January 2020 by Minister for the Presidency Yerko Núñez, who said that "[Áñez] will not be a candidate. The President has stated on several occasions, she will not be a candidate, this is a government of peace, transition, and management because you can not stop the state apparatus."[18]

However, despite her previous statements, Áñez announced her candidacy on 24 January 2020.[19] A survey reported in the Bolivian newspaper Los Tiempos indicated that, while 43% of respondents considered her to have done a "good or very good" job as interim president (compared to 27% bad or very bad), only 24% of respondents believed that she should stand as a candidate in the upcoming elections. In the same poll, 63% of respondents agreed with the statement that "as interim president, Jeanine Áñez should call elections and not take advantage of her power to become a presidential candidate."[20]

Electoral system

The President of Bolivia is elected using a modified two-round system: a candidate is declared the winner if they receive more than 50% of the vote, or over 40% of the vote and are 10 percentage points ahead of their closest rival.[21] If neither condition is met, a run-off election is held between the two top candidates.[22]

Presidential candidates

As of 28 January 2020, ten candidates had officially stated their intention to run for the presidency.[23][24][25][26][27] [28][29][30][31][32] On 18 January 2020, the Unity Pact of MAS bases elected David Choquehuanca and Andrónico Rodríguez as presidential and vice-presidential candidates. On 19 January, Evo Morales announced that Luis Alberto Arce Catacora and David Choquehuanca would be the party's presidential and vice presidential candidates. This was following a vote by those members of MAS leadership present in Buenos Aires the previous day.[33] This difference caused some friction among different sections of the MAS bases, including the Barolina Sisa and Tupac Katari Federation who rejected these selections.[34][35] On 21 January, the Central Obrera Boliviana (COB) supplied a third candidacy combination of Choquehuanca paired with Orlando Gutiérrez. MAS President of the Senate, Eva Copa, said the matter was not yet closed and would be decided by a further meeting of the Unity Pact.[36] On 23 January, the Unity Pact ratified the Arce-Choquehuanca ticket chosen in Buenos Aires.[37] On 24 January, a new right-wing political alliance called "We Believe" ("Creemos") was formed, and endorsed the Camacho-Pumari ticket.[38] By the registration deadline, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal announced that five policial coalitions had been registered.[39] However, on 31 January the TSE announced that the coalition "United People" had been disqualified after not submitting the required documents.[40]

Presidential candidate Vice-Presidential candidate Party/Coalition
Luis Arce David Choquehuanca Movement for Socialism (MAS)
Carlos Mesa Gustavo Pedraza Civic Community
Jeanine Áñez Samuel Doria Medina Juntos
Luis Fernando Camacho Marco Pumari Creemos
Chi Hyun Chung Leopoldo Chui Front For Victory (FPV)
Jorge Quiroga Tomasa Yarhui Libre 21
Feliciano Mamani Ruth Nina National Action Party of Bolivia (PAN-BOL)
Fernando Gainza Remberto Siles Nationalist Democratic Action (ADN)

Opinion polls

First round
2020
Poll source Date(s)
administered[41]		 Luis
Arce		 Carlos
Mesa		 Jeanine
Áñez		 Luis F.
Camacho		 Chi Hyun
Chung		 Jorge
Qurioga		 Feliciano
Mamani		 Other Would not
vote		 Undecided
Ciesmori March 5–11, 2020 33.3% 18.3% 16.9% 7.1% 3.8% 1.7% 1.9% - 6.2% 8.1%
CELAG February 10–March 4, 2020 33.1% 17.4% 20.5% 7.4% 5.6% 1.5% 1.3% - 5.7% 7.5%
Miský Utaha´a February 21–23, 2020 29.2% 15.3% 13.7% 11.1% 8.6% 6.7% 0.5% 0.1%[lower-alpha 5] 11.3% 3.5%
Mercados y Muestras SRL February 14–17, 2020 32% 23% 21% 15% 6% 2% 1% - - -
Ciesmori February 7–13, 2020 31.6% 17.1% 16.5% 9.6% 5.4% 1.6% 1.6% 0.5%[lower-alpha 6] 7.5% 8.7%
January 24, 2020 Áñez announces her candidacy[42]
January 19, 2020 Arce announced as candidate of MAS[43]
United States Embassy January 2020 37% 9% 9% 11% 4% - - 3% 7% 20%
Mercados y Muestras SRL January 9–13, 2020 26% 17% 12% 17% 6% 3% - 2%[lower-alpha 7] 8% 9%
2019
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 MAS
Candidate		 Carlos
Mesa		 Jeanine
Áñez		 Luis F.
Camacho		 Chi Hyun
Chung		 Marco
Pumari		 Ortiz
Antelo		 Félix
Patzi		 Doria
Medina		 Jorge
Quiroga		 Johnny
Fernandez		 Other Would not
vote		 Undecided
Ciesmori December 21–30, 2019 20.7%[lower-alpha 8] 13.8% 15.6% 6.9% 8.1% 8.2% - - 1.8% 1.6% - 0.9% 10.2% 12.2%
Mercados y Muestras SRL December 13–16, 2019 23%[lower-alpha 9] 21% - 13% 9% 10% - - - 2% - - 14% 8%
Captura Consulting[44][45] December 5–15, 2019 18.4%[lower-alpha 10] 11.9% 7.5% 12.8% 8.5% - 3.7% 2.8% 2.1% 1.8% 1.0% 2.6% 5.1% 21.8%
12.0%[lower-alpha 11] 13.7% 10.0% - 9.4% 8.0% 4.8% 3.7% 2.5% 1.7% 2.3% 3.5% 5.1% 23.3%
13.6%[lower-alpha 12] 10.6% 7.3% 11.1% 8.4% 5.7% 4.2% 2.6% 2.2% 2.7% - 11.0%[lower-alpha 13] 3.0% 17.6%
Mercados y Muestras SRL November 26–27, 2019 16%[lower-alpha 14] 14% - 16% 10% 16% - - - - - 8% 8% 12%

Second round
Arce v. Áñez
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Arce Áñez Would not
vote		 Undecided
Ciesmori March 5–11, 2020 43.2% 42.6% 8.3% 6%
Mercados y Muestras February 14–17, 2020 36% 48% 12% 4%
Ciesmori February 7–13, 2020 42.3% 43.6% 10.6% 3.5%
Arce v. Mesa
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Arce Mesa Would not
vote		 Undecided
Ciesmori March 5–11, 2020 42.9% 41% 10.4% 5.7%
Mercados y Muestras February 14–17, 2020 37% 48% 11% 4%
Ciesmori February 7–13, 2020 40.8% 40.7% 15.2% 3.3%
Arce v. Camacho
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Arce Camacho Would not
vote		 Undecided
Ciesmori March 5–11, 2020 46% 42% 16% 5.9%
Mercados y Muestras February 14–17, 2020 40% 37% 19% 4%
Ciesmori February 7–13, 2020 44.5% 33.6% 18% 3.9%
Mesa v. Áñez
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Mesa Áñez Would not
vote		 Undecided
Ciesmori March 5–11, 2020 32.6% 31.6% 29.6% 6.2%
Ciesmori February 7–13, 2020 30.3% 33.8% 32.3% 3.6%
Camacho v. Áñez
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Camacho Áñez Would not
vote		 Undecided
Ciesmori March 5–11, 2020 15.6% 41.4% 37.0% 6%
Ciesmori February 7–13, 2020 16.3% 40.8% 38.7% 4.2%

International reactions

Representatives of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Organization of American States (OAS) arrived in Bolivia on 9 January 2020 to monitor the 3 May elections. USAID had been expelled in 2013 by Evo Morales.[46]

Notes
  1. Coalition consisting of FRI, JESUCA and Chuquisaca Para Todos
  2. Coalition consisting of MDS, UN and Sol.Bo
  3. Coalition consisting of ADN, PDC and UCS
  4. Coalition consisting of MNR and MPS
  5. ADN candidate with 0.1%
  6. Schabib with 0.5%
  7. Patzi with 1%, Doria Medina with 1%
  8. Generic MAS candidate
  9. Andrónico Rodríguez
  10. Andrónico Rodríguez
  11. David Choquehuanca
  12. Luis Arce Catacora
  13. Albarracín with 1.1%, others with 9.9%
  14. Andrónico Rodríguez

References
  1. "Las elecciones en Bolivia se realizarán el 6 de septiembre". NODAL. 3 June 2020. Retrieved 4 June 2020.
  2. "Para mayo las nuevas elecciones en Bolivia". El Vocero de Puerto Rico (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 January 2020.
  3. "Electoral court postpones Bolivia general election over virus". Outlook (India). Retrieved 22 March 2020.
  4. "Copa Says Legislative Will Define New Election Date After Quarantine". La Razon (in Spanish). 24 March 2020.
  5. "Parties in the electoral race avoid fixing the date of the elections; await quarantine report". La Razon (in Spanish). 25 March 2020.
  6. "After warning of risk, Añez promulgates the law of elections between reproaches of MAS and CC" (in Spanish). 22 June 2020.
  7. "See the electoral calendar for 2020 elections". 26 June 2020.
  8. "Mexico says it would offer asylum to Bolivia's Morales if he sought it". 11 November 2019 – via www.reuters.com.
  9. "Bolivia crisis: Evo Morales accepts political asylum in Mexico". BBC News. BBC. 12 November 2019. Retrieved 12 November 2019.
  10. Faiola, Anthony. "Evo Morales resigns as Bolivia's president after OAS election audit, protests". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 12 November 2019. Retrieved 12 November 2019.
  11. "Bolivias Constitutional Court Confirms Legitimacy Of Power Transfer To Anez". UrduPoint. Archived from the original on 13 November 2019. Retrieved 14 November 2019.
  12. "COMUNICADO | Tribunal Constitucional Plurinacional". tcpbolivia.bo. Archived from the original on 13 November 2019. Retrieved 15 December 2019.
  13. "Evo Morales ofreció no presentarse a elecciones si le permiten regresar a Bolivia y terminar su mandato". Bloomberg (in Spanish). Infobae. 20 November 2019. Archived from the original on 21 November 2019. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
  14. "Bolivia government proposes election bill as its seeks path to peace". Reuters. 20 November 2019. Archived from the original on 24 November 2019. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
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  16. "Bolivian leader agrees to withdraw military in deal to 'pacify' country". Reuters. 24 November 2019. Archived from the original on 28 November 2019. Retrieved 25 November 2019.
  17. Jeanine Áñez no postulará a la Presidencia de Bolivia, según el Gobierno interino. Publicado el 5 de diciembre de 2019. Consultado el 8 de diciembre de 2019.
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  22. "El Tribunal Electoral define la eventual segunda vuelta para el 15 de diciembre". El Deber. Archived from the original on 2 April 2019. Retrieved 2 April 2019.
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  28. "Chi Hyung Chung confirma que será candidato en las nuevas elecciones". Correo del Sur (in Spanish). Retrieved 23 December 2019.
  29. "MNR rompe acuerdo con Fernando Camacho y decide apoyar a Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga". fmbolivia.com (in Spanish). 22 January 2020. Retrieved 22 January 2020.
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  32. "Ruth Nina se suma a la lista de candidatos para las elecciones de mayo". eldeber.com (in Spanish). 27 January 2020. Retrieved 27 January 2020.
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  34. "The social and peasant organizations of the department of La Paz feel betrayed by the decision of Evo Morales" (in Spanish). 21 January 2020.
  35. "Morales defends Arce, but more voices of rejection arise" (in Spanish). 22 January 2020.
  36. "Copa MAS Binomial: We take it as a proposal to be debated" (in Spanish). 22 January 2020.
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  38. "Three parties join to endorse the Camacho-Pumari ticket" (in Spanish). 24 January 2020.
  39. "These are all alliances that submitted their applications for registration before the Supreme Electoral Tribunal" (in Spanish). 25 January 2020.
  40. "Estas son las Alianzas Políticas habilitadas para las Elecciones Generales 2020" (in Spanish). 25 January 2020.
  41. "Bolivia electoral 2020". 2020.boliviaelectoral.com. Retrieved 14 March 2020.
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  44. @pepepomacusi (19 December 2019). "La nueva intención de voto: Bolivia eje central Arce 13.6% Camacho 11.1% Mesa 10.6% Chi 8.4% Jeanine 7.3% Pumari 5.7% Medición 5 a 15 de diciembre 2019 Encuesta de Captura Consulting para Poder y Placer (Tercero de tres escenarios medidos. Acá, medidos Arce, Camacho y Pumari)" (Tweet). Retrieved 7 June 2020 – via Twitter.
  45. @pepepomacusi (19 December 2019). "La nueva intención de voto: Bolivia eje central Mesa 13.7% Choquehuanca 12.0% Jeanine 10.0% Chi 9.4% Pumari 8.0% Medición 5 al 15 de diciembre de 2019 Encuesta de Captura Consulting para Poder y Placer (Segundo de tres escenarios medidos. Acá, medidos Choquehuanca y Pumari)" (Tweet). Retrieved 7 June 2020 – via Twitter.
  46. Higgins, Eoin (10 January 2020). "USAID Arriving in Bolivia to 'Monitor Elections,' Raising Fears of US Meddling in May 3 Vote". Common Dreams. Retrieved 23 January 2020.
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