Next National Assembly for Wales election
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All 60 seats to the National Assembly for Wales 31 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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This article is part of a series on the politics and government of Wales |
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Wales and the European Union |
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The next National Assembly for Wales election is due to be held on Thursday 6 May 2021[1] to elect 60 members to the Welsh Assembly. It would be the sixth general election since the assembly was established in 1999.
Five parties had AMs in the fifth Assembly: Welsh Labour led by First Minister Carwyn Jones, Plaid Cymru led by Adam Price, Welsh Conservatives led by Paul Davies, UKIP Wales led by Gareth Bennett, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats, led by Jane Dodds.
Electoral method
In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.
In accordance to the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency, as well as a regional list. However, holding a dual mandate with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning an Assembly Member cannot also be an MP.
Target seats
Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 7.5% from the 2016 result to change hands.
Labour targets
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2016 | Majority | Swing to gain | Labour's place 2016 | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Aberconwy | Conservative | 1,609 | 3.35 | 3rd | ||
2 | Camarthen West and South Pembrokeshire | Conservative | 3,373 | 5.75 | 2nd | ||
3 | Preseli Pembrokeshire | Conservative | 3,930 | 6.8 | 2nd | ||
4 | Rhondda | Plaid Cymru | 3,459 | 7.35 | 2nd | ||
Plaid Cymru targets
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2016 | Majority | Swing to gain | PC's place 2016 | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Llanelli | Labour | 382 | 0.65 | 2nd | ||
2 | Blaenau Gwent | Labour | 650 | 1.55 | 2nd | ||
3 | Aberconwy | Conservative | 754 | 1.7 | 2nd | ||
4 | Cardiff West | Labour | 1,176 | 1.85 | 2nd | ||
5 | Caerphilly | Labour | 1,575 | 2.9 | 2nd | ||
6 | Neath | Labour | 2,923 | 5.75 | 2nd | ||
Conservative targets
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2016 | Majority | Swing to gain | Con's place 2016 | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Vale of Glamorgan | Labour | 777 | 1.05 | 2nd | ||
2 | Vale of Clwyd | Labour | 768 | 1.55 | 2nd | ||
3 | Gower | Labour | 1,829 | 3.05 | 2nd | ||
4 | Wrexham | Labour | 1,325 | 3.25 | 2nd | ||
5 | Cardiff North | Labour | 3,667 | 4.9 | 2nd | ||
6 | Clwyd South | Labour | 3,016 | 6.8 | 2nd | ||
Liberal Democrat targets
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2016 | Majority | Swing to gain | LD's place 2016 | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cardiff Central | Labour | 817 | 1.55 | 2nd | ||
2 | Ceredigion | Plaid Cymru | 2,408 | 4.1 | 2nd | ||
3 | Montgomeryshire | Conservative | 3,339 | 7.05 | 2nd | ||
Opinion polls
Constituency Vote (FPTP)
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Plaid | Con | UKIP | Lib Dem | Others | Lead | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28 Sept 2018 | Adam Price elected Leader of Plaid Cymru | |||||||||
6 Sept 2018 | Paul Davies elected Leader of the Welsh Conservatives | |||||||||
10 August 2018 | Gareth Bennett elected Leader of the UK Independence Party | |||||||||
28 Jun-2 July 2018 | YouGov | 1,031 | 38% | 21% | 28% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 10% | |
12-15 March 2018 | YouGov | 1,015 | 39% | 22% | 28% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 11% | |
8-25 Feb 2018 | ICM Research | 1,001 | 40% | 25% | 22% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 15% | |
6 Feb 2018 | Alyn and Deeside by-election | |||||||||
21-24 Nov 2017 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,016 | 43% | 19% | 26% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 17% | |
3 Nov 2017 | Jane Dodds elected Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[2] | |||||||||
4-7 Sept 2017 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,011 | 43% | 19% | 25% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 18% | |
18-21 May 2017 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,025 | 40% | 20% | 27% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 13% | |
5-7 May 2017 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,025 | 33% | 20% | 33% | 3% | 7% | 4% | Tie | |
19-20 Apr 2017 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,034 | 29% | 22% | 30% | 8% | 8% | 3% | 1% | |
3-6 Jan 2017 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,034 | 31% | 21% | 25% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 6% | |
18-21 Sep 2016 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,001 | 34% | 20% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 10% | |
30 Jun - 4 Jul 2016 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,010 | 32% | 23% | 19% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 9% | |
30 May-2 Jun 2016 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,017 | 34% | 23% | 18% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 11% | |
5 May 2016 | Assembly election (constituency) | 1,013,383 | 34.7% | 20.5% | 21.1% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 13.6% |
Regional Vote (AMS)
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Plaid | Con | UKIP | Lib Dem | Others | Lead | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28 September 2018 | Adam Price elected Leader of Plaid Cymru | |||||||||
6 September 2018 | Paul Davies elected Leader of the Welsh Conservatives | |||||||||
10 August 2018 | Gareth Bennett elected Leader of the UK Independence Party | |||||||||
28 Jun-2 July 2018 | YouGov | 1,031 | 37% | 22% | 25% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 12% | |
12-15 March 2018 | YouGov | 1,015 | 36% | 21% | 27% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 9% | |
8-25 Feb 2018 | ICM Research | 1,001 | 36% | 23% | 21% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 13% | |
6 Feb 2018 | Alyn and Deeside by-election | |||||||||
21-24 Nov 2017 | YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer | 1,016 | 38% | 18% | 27% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 11% | |
3 Nov 2017 | Jane Dodds elected Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[3] | |||||||||
4-7 Sept 2017 | Welsh Political Barometer | 1,011 | 40% | 19% | 23% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 17% | |
18-21 May 2017 | Welsh Political Barometer | 1,025 | 37% | 19% | 26% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 11% | |
5-7 May 2017 | Welsh Political Barometer | 1,025 | 31% | 20% | 32% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 1% | |
19-21 Apr 2017 | Welsh Political Barometer | 1,034 | 27% | 20% | 28% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 1% | |
3-6 Jan 2017 | Welsh Political Barometer | 1,034 | 28% | 20% | 22% | 14% | 7% | 7% | 6% | |
18-21 Sep 2016 | Welsh Political Barometer | 1,001 | 29% | 21% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 10% | 7% | |
30 Jun-4 Jul 2016 | Welsh Political Barometer | 1,010 | 29% | 24% | 18% | 15% | 6% | 10% | 5% | |
30 May-2 Jun 2016 | Welsh Political Barometer | 1,017 | 32% | 21% | 18% | 14% | 6% | 8% | 11% | |
5 May 2016 | Assembly election (regional) | 1,005,541 | 31.5% | 20.8% | 18.8% | 13.0% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 10.7% |
Seat Projections
Prof. Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre provides seat projections based on individual opinion polls at regular intervals on his 'Elections in Wales' blog.[4]
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ Includes 1 'Independent Conservative' - Mark Reckless sits with the Welsh Conservative group without being a party member
References
- ↑ "Wales Bill (Dates)" (PDF). publications.parliament.uk. Retrieved 7 Oct 2016.
- ↑ "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". 3 November 2017 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
- ↑ "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". 3 November 2017 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
- ↑ "Elections in Wales – Etholiadau yng Nghymru". Retrieved 11 September 2017.
- ↑ "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". 3 November 2017 – via www.bbc.co.uk.