Next Basque regional election

Next Basque regional election
No later than 25 October 2020
All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament
38 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls

 
Leader Iñigo Urkullu Maddalen Iriarte To be determined
Party EAJ/PNV EH Bildu Elkarrekin Podemos
Leader since 2 December 2007 24 August 2016 —
Leader's seat Álava Gipuzkoa —
Last election 28 seats, 37.4% 18 seats, 21.1% 11 seats, 14.8%
Seats needed 10 20 27
 
Leader Idoia Mendia Alfonso Alonso
Party PSE–EE (PSOE) PP
Leader since 20 September 2014 15 October 2015
Leader's seat Biscay Álava
Last election 9 seats, 11.9% 9 seats, 10.1%
Seats needed 29 29
Incumbent Lehendakari

Iñigo Urkullu
EAJ/PNV

The Next Basque regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 25 October 2020, to elect the 12th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Overview

Electoral system

The Basque Parliament is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Basque Country, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Basque Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a Lehendakari.[1] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Basques abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

The 75 members of the Basque Parliament are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method may result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[3] Each constituency is allocated a fixed number of 25 seats each, to provide for an equal representation of the three provinces in Parliament as required under the regional Statute of Autonomy.[1][4] This meant that Álava was allocated the same number of seats as Biscay and Gipuzkoa, despite their populations being, as of 1 January 2017: 323,978, 1,134,519 and 709,209, respectively.[5]

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they are seeking election. Electors are barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[4][6][7]

Election date

The term of the Basque Parliament expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election Decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 25 September 2016, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 25 September 2020. The election Decree shall be published no later than 1 September 2020, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 20 October 2020.[1][4]

The Lehendakari has the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a Lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament re-assembly, the Parliament is to be dissolved and a fresh election called.[8]

Parties and leaders

Below is a list of the main parties and coalitions which will likely contest the election:

Parties and coalitions Ideology Candidate
Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ(PNV) Christian democracy, Basque autonomism Iñigo Urkullu
Basque Country Unite (EH Bildu) Abertzale left, Basque independentism Maddalen Iriarte
United We Can (Podemos–IU–eQuo) (Elkarrekin Podemos) Direct democracy, Left-wing populism To be determined
Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE (PSOE)) Social democracy Idoia Mendia
People's Party (PP) Conservatism, Christian democracy Alfonso Alonso
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) Liberalism Nicolás de Miguel

In August 2018, Pili Zabala, the leader of Elkarrekin Podemos, announced that she would not seek reelection and would leave politics by the end of the legislature.[9]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 38 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead
Ikertalde/GPS[p 1] 8–15 May 2018 2,313 58.8 39.0
30		 22.5
18		 12.8
10		 11.5
9		 8.9
7		 2.6
1		 16.5
SyM Consulting[p 2][p 3] 7–9 May 2018 650 62.2 38.0
28		 20.9
15/18		 14.2
11/12		 12.5
9/10		 7.4
6		 4.3
3/4		 17.1
Ikertalde/GPS[p 4] 26 Feb–5 Mar 2018 1,973 58.6 38.8
30		 21.9
18		 12.9
10		 12.2
9		 8.6
7		 3.1
1		 16.9
Gizaker/EiTB[p 5] 22–23 Feb 2018 1,200 62.7 40.7
31		 22.3
18		 12.4
10		 12.0
9		 8.1
6		 2.4
1		 18.4
Ikertalde/GPS[p 6] 24–30 Oct 2017 2,295 60.3 37.9
29		 22.5
18		 12.5
10		 12.0
9		 9.8
9		 2.1
0		 15.4
Gizaker/EiTB[p 7] 2–4 Oct 2017 1,200 60.5 39.7
30		 23.4
19		 11.6
10		 12.6
9		 9.0
7		 1.6
0		 16.3
CPS/EHU[p 8] 2 May–2 Jun 2017 1,200 60.0 38.6
29/30		 20.8
15/17		 13.9
10/11		 13.0
9		 9.2
7/9		 2.4
1		 18.1
Ikertalde/GPS[p 9] 16–22 May 2017 2,268 58.6 37.8
29		 21.6
18		 13.9
10		 11.7
9		 9.7
9		 ?
0		 16.2
Gizaker/EiTB[p 10] 22–24 Feb 2017 1,200 60.4 38.2
29		 21.2
18		 12.8
9		 13.4
11		 9.7
8		 2.3
0		 17.0
Ikertalde/GPS[p 11][p 12] 7–12 Feb 2017 2,268 58.2 38.2
29		 21.6
18		 13.6
10		 11.6
9		 10.0
9		 ?
0		 16.6
2016 regional election 25 Sep 2016 N/A 60.0 37.4
28		 21.1
18		 14.8
11		 11.9
9		 10.1
9		 2.0
0		 16.3

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ "Previsión de voto para Elecciones Autonómicas (Junio 2018)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 13 June 2018.
  2. ↑ "Estimación Mayo 2018. Euskadi/País Vasco. Autonómicas 2020". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 29 May 2018.
  3. ↑ "PAÍS VASCO. Elecciones autonómicas. Encuesta SyM Consulting. Mayo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 29 May 2018.
  4. ↑ "Previsión de voto para Elecciones Autonómicas (Marzo 2018)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 23 March 2018.
  5. ↑ "EiTB Focus: El PNV ganaría las elecciones, subiendo tres escaños, uno por territorio". EiTB (in Spanish). 6 March 2018.
  6. ↑ "Previsión de voto para Elecciones Autonómicas (Noviembre 2017)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 9 November 2017.
  7. ↑ "EiTB Focus: PNV ganaría de nuevo y saldría reforzado, igual que EH Bildu". EiTB (in Spanish). 18 October 2017.
  8. ↑ "Euskobarómetro Mayo 2017". EHU (in Spanish). 14 July 2017.
  9. ↑ "Previsiones de voto para Elecciones Autonómicas (Junio 2017)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 14 June 2017.
  10. ↑ "EiTB Focus: El PNV volvería a ganar las elecciones". EiTB (in Spanish). 9 March 2017.
  11. ↑ "Previsiones de voto para Elecciones Autonómicas (Febrero 2017)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 21 February 2017.
  12. ↑ "PAÍS VASCO (Autonómicas), Febrero 2017. Sondeo Gobierno Vasco (Sociómetro)". Electograph (in Spanish). 21 February 2017.
Other
  1. 1 2 3 "Statute of Autonomy for the Basque Country of 1979". Organic Law No. 3 of 18 December 1979. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  2. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ↑ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  4. 1 2 3 "Basque Parliament Elections Law of 1990". Law No. 5 of 15 June 1990. Official Gazette of the Basque Country (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  5. ↑ "Series detalladas desde 2002. Resultados por Provincias. Población residente por fecha, sexo y edad". ine.es (in Spanish). National Institute of Statistics. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  6. ↑ "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  7. ↑ "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  8. ↑ "Government Law of 1981". Law No. 7 of 30 June 1981. Official Gazette of the Basque Country (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  9. ↑ "Pili Zabala dice que dejará la política al final de la legislatura ya que en ella "se sufre"". Europa Press (in Spanish). 10 August 2018. Retrieved 11 August 2018.
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