Next National Assembly for Wales election

Welsh Parliament election, 2021
(name change to be legislated for before next election)
On or before 6 May 2021
All 60 seats to the National Assembly for Wales
31 seats needed for a majority

 
Leader Carwyn Jones
(Until Autumn 2018)		 Paul Davies Adam Price
Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
Leader since 10 December 2009 6 September 2018 28 September 2018
Leader's seat Bridgend Preseli Pembrokeshire Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Last election 29 seats 11 seats 12 seats
Current seats 29 12[n 1] 10
Seats needed Increase2 Increase20 Increase19
 
Leader Gareth Bennett Jane Dodds
Party UKIP Liberal Democrats
Leader since 10 August 2018 3 November 2017
Leader's seat South Wales Central Not in Assembly
Last election 7 seats 1 seat
Current seats 4 1
Seats needed Increase24 Increase30
Incumbent First Minister

Carwyn Jones
Labour
Wales
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The next National Assembly for Wales election is due to be held on Thursday 6 May 2021[1] to elect 60 members to the Welsh Assembly. It would be the sixth general election since the assembly was established in 1999.

Five parties had AMs in the fifth Assembly: Welsh Labour led by First Minister Carwyn Jones, Plaid Cymru led by Adam Price, Welsh Conservatives led by Paul Davies, UKIP Wales led by Gareth Bennett, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats, led by Jane Dodds.

Electoral method

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

In accordance to the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency, as well as a regional list. However, holding a dual mandate with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning an Assembly Member cannot also be an MP.

Target seats

Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 7.5% from the 2016 result to change hands.

Labour targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing to gain Labour's place 2016 Result
1 Aberconwy Conservative 1,609 3.35 3rd
2 Camarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Conservative 3,373 5.75 2nd
3 Preseli Pembrokeshire Conservative 3,930 6.8 2nd
4 Rhondda Plaid Cymru 3,459 7.35 2nd

Plaid Cymru targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing to gain PC's place 2016 Result
1 Llanelli Labour 382 0.65 2nd
2 Blaenau Gwent Labour 650 1.55 2nd
3 Aberconwy Conservative 754 1.7 2nd
4 Cardiff West Labour 1,176 1.85 2nd
5 Caerphilly Labour 1,575 2.9 2nd
6 Neath Labour 2,923 5.75 2nd

Conservative targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing to gain Con's place 2016 Result
1 Vale of Glamorgan Labour 777 1.05 2nd
2 Vale of Clwyd Labour 768 1.55 2nd
3 Gower Labour 1,829 3.05 2nd
4 Wrexham Labour 1,325 3.25 2nd
5 Cardiff North Labour 3,667 4.9 2nd
6 Clwyd South Labour 3,016 6.8 2nd

Liberal Democrat targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing to gain LD's place 2016 Result
1 Cardiff Central Labour 817 1.55 2nd
2 Ceredigion Plaid Cymru 2,408 4.1 2nd
3 Montgomeryshire Conservative 3,339 7.05 2nd

Opinion polls

Constituency Vote (FPTP)

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Plaid Con UKIP Lib Dem Others Lead
28 Sept 2018 Adam Price elected Leader of Plaid Cymru
6 Sept 2018 Paul Davies elected Leader of the Welsh Conservatives
10 August 2018 Gareth Bennett elected Leader of the UK Independence Party
28 Jun-2 July 2018 YouGov1,03138%21%28%4%6%3%10%
12-15 March 2018 YouGov1,01539%22%28%5%4%2%11%
8-25 Feb 2018 ICM Research1,00140%25%22%5%6%2%15%
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election
21-24 Nov 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer1,01643%19%26%4%5%4%17%
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds elected Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[2]
4-7 Sept 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer1,01143%19%25%4%5%3%18%
18-21 May 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer1,02540%20%27%5%6%3%13%
5-7 May 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer1,02533%20%33% 3%7%4%Tie
19-20 Apr 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer1,03429%22%30%8%8%3%1%
3-6 Jan 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer1,03431%21%25%12%8%3%6%
18-21 Sep 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer1,00134%20%24%13%6%3%10%
30 Jun - 4 Jul 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer1,01032%23%19%16%7%3%9%
30 May-2 Jun 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer1,01734%23%18%15%7%3%11%
5 May 2016Assembly election (constituency)1,013,38334.7%20.5%21.1%12.5%7.7%2.8%13.6%

Regional Vote (AMS)

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Plaid Con UKIP Lib Dem Others Lead
28 September 2018 Adam Price elected Leader of Plaid Cymru
6 September 2018 Paul Davies elected Leader of the Welsh Conservatives
10 August 2018 Gareth Bennett elected Leader of the UK Independence Party
28 Jun-2 July 2018 YouGov1,03137%22%25%5%5%7%12%
12-15 March 2018 YouGov1,01536%21%27%6%4%2%9%
8-25 Feb 2018 ICM Research1,00136%23%21%8%6%4%13%
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election
21-24 Nov 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer1,01638%18%27%4%5%8%11%
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds elected Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[3]
4-7 Sept 2017 Welsh Political Barometer1,01140%19%23%5%5%7%17%
18-21 May 2017 Welsh Political Barometer1,02537%19%26%5%5%8%11%
5-7 May 2017 Welsh Political Barometer1,02531%20%32%5%6%8%1%
19-21 Apr 2017 Welsh Political Barometer1,03427%20%28%9%6%8%1%
3-6 Jan 2017 Welsh Political Barometer1,03428%20%22%14%7%7%6%
18-21 Sep 2016 Welsh Political Barometer1,00129%21%22%13%6%10%7%
30 Jun-4 Jul 2016 Welsh Political Barometer1,01029%24%18%15%6%10%5%
30 May-2 Jun 2016 Welsh Political Barometer1,01732%21%18%14%6%8%11%
5 May 2016Assembly election (regional)1,005,54131.5%20.8%18.8%13.0%6.5%9.5%10.7%

Seat Projections

Prof. Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre provides seat projections based on individual opinion polls at regular intervals on his 'Elections in Wales' blog.[4]

Date
published		 Publisher Lab Plaid Con UKIP Lib Dem Majority
28 Sept 2018 Adam Price elected Leader of Plaid Cymru
6 Sept 2018 Paul Davies elected Leader of the Welsh Conservatives
10 August 2018 Gareth Bennett elected Leader of the UK Independence Party
2 July 2018 Prof. Roger Scully281515113 short
15 Mar 2018 Prof. Roger Scully281317113 short
1 Mar 2018 Prof. Roger Scully301513111 short
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election
28 Nov 2017 Prof. Roger Scully/Welsh Political Barometer301018111 short
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds elected Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[5]
9 Sept 2017 Prof. Roger Scully/Welsh Political Barometer311116112
28 April 2017 Prof. Roger Scully/Welsh Political Barometer2114185210 short
1 Jan 2017 Prof. Roger Scully/Welsh Political Barometer221414829 short
23 Sep 2016 Prof. Roger Scully/Welsh Political Barometer261214715 short
4 July 2016 Prof. Roger Scully/Welsh Political Barometer261510815 short
6 June 2016 Prof. Roger Scully/Welsh Political Barometer281311713 short
5 May 2016Assembly election291211712 short

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Includes 1 'Independent Conservative' - Mark Reckless sits with the Welsh Conservative group without being a party member

References

  1. ↑ "Wales Bill (Dates)" (PDF). publications.parliament.uk. Retrieved 7 Oct 2016.
  2. ↑ "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". 3 November 2017 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  3. ↑ "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". 3 November 2017 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  4. ↑ "Elections in Wales – Etholiadau yng Nghymru". Retrieved 11 September 2017.
  5. ↑ "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". 3 November 2017 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
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