Post-election pendulum for the 2019 Australian federal election

The Coalition won the 2019 federal election with a two-seat majority 77 of 151 lower house seats. Labor holds 68 seats while crossbenchers hold the remaining six.[1]

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."[2]

Pendulum

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Bass (TAS) Bridget Archer LIB 50.41
Chisholm (VIC) Gladys Liu LIB 50.57
Wentworth (NSW) Dave Sharma LIB v IND 51.31
Boothby (SA) Nicolle Flint LIB 51.38
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB 52.69
Braddon (TAS) Gavin Pearce LIB 53.09
Reid (NSW) Fiona Martin LIB 53.18
Longman (QLD) Terry Young LNP 53.28
Higgins (VIC) Katie Allen LIB 53.88
Leichhardt (QLD) Warren Entsch LNP 54.17
Robertson (NSW) Lucy Wicks LIB 54.24
La Trobe (VIC) Jason Wood LIB 54.49
Dickson (QLD) Peter Dutton LNP 54.64
Casey (VIC) Tony Smith LIB 54.64
Deakin (VIC) Michael Sukkar LIB 54.78
Brisbane (QLD) Trevor Evans LNP 54.92
Lindsay (NSW) Melissa McIntosh LIB 55.04
Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB 55.39
Flinders (VIC) Greg Hunt LIB 55.64
Stirling (WA) Vince Connelly LIB 55.65
Kooyong (VIC) Josh Frydenberg LIB v GRN 55.70
Fairly safe
Ryan (QLD) Julian Simmonds LNP 56.03
Banks (NSW) David Coleman LIB 56.26
Cowper (NSW) Pat Conaghan NAT v IND 56.79
Sturt (SA) James Stevens LIB 56.87
Bennelong (NSW) John Alexander LIB 56.91
Monash (VIC) Russell Broadbent LIB 57.36
Bonner (QLD) Ross Vasta LNP 57.41
Pearce (WA) Christian Porter LIB 57.52
Menzies (VIC) Kevin Andrews LIB 57.53
Goldstein (VIC) Tim Wilson LIB 57.79
Herbert (QLD) Phillip Thompson LNP 58.36
Petrie (QLD) Luke Howarth LNP 58.40
Forde (QLD) Bert van Manen LNP 58.60
Flynn (QLD) Ken O'Dowd LNP 58.66
North Sydney (NSW) Trent Zimmerman LIB 59.27
Page (NSW) Kevin Hogan NAT 59.45
Hughes (NSW) Craig Kelly LIB 59.85
Safe
Aston (VIC) Alan Tudge LIB 60.13
Bowman (QLD) Andrew Laming LNP 60.24
Wannon (VIC) Dan Tehan LIB 60.38
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LIB v IND 60.94
Tangney (WA) Ben Morton LIB 61.47
Canning (WA) Andrew Hastie LIB 61.55
Moore (WA) Ian Goodenough LIB 61.65
McPherson (QLD) Karen Andrews LNP 62.20
Capricornia (QLD) Michelle Landry LNP 62.35
Fisher (QLD) Andrew Wallace LNP 62.70
Hume (NSW) Angus Taylor LIB 62.99
Wide Bay (QLD) Llew O'Brien LNP 63.15
Mackellar (NSW) Jason Falinski LIB 63.22
Calare (NSW) Andrew Gee NAT 63.29
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB 63.32
Fairfax (QLD) Ted O'Brien LNP 63.44
Fadden (QLD) Stuart Robert LNP 64.18
Curtin (WA) Celia Hammond LIB 64.33
New England (NSW) Barnaby Joyce NAT v IND 64.36
O'Connor (WA) Rick Wilson LIB 64.48
Hinkler (QLD) Keith Pitt LNP 64.50
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LIB 64.56
Wright (QLD) Scott Buchholz LNP 64.58
Dawson (QLD) George Christensen LNP 64.61
Durack (WA) Melissa Price LIB 64.76
Lyne (NSW) David Gillespie NAT 65.17
Moncrieff (QLD) Angie Bell LNP 65.36
Berowra (NSW) Julian Leeser LIB 65.65
Mallee (VIC) Anne Webster NAT 66.23
Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher LIB 66.56
Gippsland (VIC) Darren Chester NAT 66.67
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NAT 66.91
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LIB 68.63
Barker (SA) Tony Pasin LIB 68.94
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LIB 69.02
Riverina (NSW) Michael McCormack NAT 69.48
Nicholls (VIC) Damian Drum NAT 70.03
Groom (QLD) John McVeigh LNP 70.48
Maranoa (QLD) David Littleproud LNP v ONP 72.49
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Macquarie (NSW) Susan Templeman ALP 50.19
Lilley (QLD) Anika Wells ALP 50.64
Cowan (WA) Anne Aly ALP 50.83
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP 50.85
Corangamite (VIC) Libby Coker ALP 51.07
Blair (QLD) Shayne Neumann ALP 51.21
Dobell (NSW) Emma McBride ALP 51.50
Moreton (QLD) Graham Perrett ALP 51.90
Gilmore (NSW) Fiona Phillips ALP 52.61
Dunkley (VIC) Peta Murphy ALP 52.74
Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP 52.80
Griffith (QLD) Terri Butler ALP 52.86
Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 52.98
Solomon (NT) Luke Gosling ALP 53.08
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP 53.50
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 54.08
Shortland (NSW) Pat Conroy ALP 54.45
Perth (WA) Patrick Gorman ALP 54.93
Burt (WA) Matt Keogh ALP 54.99
McEwen (VIC) Rob Mitchell ALP 55.02
Paterson (NSW) Meryl Swanson ALP 55.04
Lyons (TAS) Brian Mitchell ALP 55.18
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP 55.46
Werriwa (NSW) Anne Stanley ALP 55.47
Hotham (VIC) Clare O'Neil ALP 55.91
Fairly safe
Macnamara (VIC) Josh Burns ALP 56.25
Oxley (QLD) Milton Dick ALP 56.39
Isaacs (VIC) Mark Dreyfus ALP 56.43
Rankin (QLD) Jim Chalmers ALP 56.44
Hindmarsh (SA) Mark Butler ALP 56.54
Jagajaga (VIC) Kate Thwaites ALP 56.57
McMahon (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP 56.64
Brand (WA) Madeleine King ALP 56.66
Fremantle (WA) Josh Wilson ALP 56.92
Bean (ACT) David Smith ALP 57.52
Wills (VIC) Peter Khalil ALP v GRN 58.17
Adelaide (SA) Steve Georganas ALP 58.18
Macarthur (NSW) Mike Freelander ALP 58.40
Holt (VIC) Anthony Byrne ALP 58.70
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Matt Thistlethwaite ALP 58.81
Bendigo (VIC) Lisa Chesters ALP 59.04
Barton (NSW) Linda Burney ALP 59.41
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP 59.72
Safe
Corio (VIC) Richard Marles ALP 60.32
Fenner (ACT) Andrew Leigh ALP 60.56
Whitlam (NSW) Stephen Jones ALP 60.91
Ballarat (VIC) Catherine King ALP 60.98
Maribyrnong (VIC) Bill Shorten ALP 61.20
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP 61.94
Franklin (TAS) Julie Collins ALP 62.21
Chifley (NSW) Ed Husic ALP 62.37
Lalor (VIC) Joanne Ryan ALP 62.41
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP 63.41
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP 63.52
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Claydon ALP 63.83
Fowler (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP 63.99
Spence (SA) Nick Champion ALP 64.13
Bruce (VIC) Julian Hill ALP 64.15
Fraser (VIC) Daniel Mulino ALP 64.18
Cooper (VIC) Ged Kearney ALP v GRN 64.65
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP 64.72
Gellibrand (VIC) Tim Watts ALP 64.83
Gorton (VIC) Brendan O'Connor ALP 65.36
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP v GRN 66.30
Canberra (ACT) Alicia Payne ALP 67.08
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP 68.67
Calwell (VIC) Maria Vamvakinou ALP 68.80
Scullin (VIC) Andrew Giles ALP 71.66
CROSS BENCH SEATS
Indi (VIC) Helen Haines IND v LIB 51.39
Mayo (SA) Rebekha Sharkie CA v LIB 55.14
Warringah (NSW) Zali Steggall IND v LIB 57.24
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter KAP v LNP 63.33
Melbourne (VIC) Adam Bandt GRN v LIB 71.83
Clark (TAS) Andrew Wilkie IND v ALP 72.12

References

  1. "Seat summary". AEC Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 June 2019.
  2. Division Classifications, Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016.
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