Opinion polling for the 2018 Italian general election

This article gathers opinion polls for the 2018 Italian general election, held on 4 March.

The date range is from the previous general election, held on 24–25 February 2013, to two weeks before the new election, 16 February 2018.[1] Under the Italian par condicio (equal conditions) law, the publication of opinion polls is forbidden in the last two weeks of the electoral campaign.[2][3] Poll results are reported at the dates when the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead.

Party vote

The data on Forza Italia (FI) prior to 16 November 2013 refer to its predecessor, The People of Freedom (PdL), which at its dissolution suffered the split of the New Centre-Right (NCD). Since the 2014 European Parliament election most opinion polls have calculated the Union of the Centre (UdC) together with the NCD, even after December 2016, when the two parties parted ways. Since December 2014 results for Lega Nord (LN) have included its sister party Us with Salvini (NcS). Since November 2015 Left Ecology Freedom (SEL) started to be polled as Italian Left (SI), before finally be merged into it in February 2017. In the same month splinters from the Democratic Party (PD) and the Italian Left formed the Democratic and Progressive Movement (MDP), while other leftists launched the short-lived Progressive Camp (CP). In March 2017 the NCD was transformed into Popular Alternative (AP). In December 2017 the MDP, SI and minor groups launched a joint list named Free and Equal (LeU).

In the run-up of the election several other electoral lists were formed, notably including More Europe (+Eu), Together (I), Power to the People (PaP), Us with Italy (NcI) and the Popular Civic List (CP). Moreover, two broader alliances were formed: the centre-left coalition and the centre-right coalition.

Some polls may include the Communist Refoundation Party (PRC), a PaP member, instead of PaP.

Graphical summary

6-point average trend line of poll results from 25 February 2013 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.
  PD
  M5S
  PdL/FI
  SC
  NCD/AP
  LN
  SEL / SI / LeU
  FdI
  UdC
  MDP
  CP
  +Eu
  I
  CP
  NcI
  PaP
  CPI

2018

Date Polling firm Sample
size
Centre-left Centre-right M5S LeU PaP CPI Others Lead
PD +Eu I CP FI LN FdI NcI
4 Mar 2018 General Election 18.8 2.6 0.6 0.5 14.0 17.4 4.3 1.3 32.7 3.4 1.1 0.9 2.4 13.9
12–16 Feb Termometro Politico 4,500 21.3 2.8 0.9 0.9 15.9 14.8 5.0 1.8 26.3 5.3 1.7 1.8 1.5 5.0
14–15 Feb Demopolis 2,000 22.5 2.5 2.0 16.5 14.2 5.0 2.3 28.0 6.0 1.0 5.5
14 Feb Euromedia 800 22.1 2.3 0.8 0.5 17.3 14.2 4.8 2.3 26.8 5.8 0.6 2.1 4.7
13–14 Feb Piepoli 505 24.5 3.0 1.0 0.5 16.0 13.0 5.0 3.0 27.0 6.0 0.5 0.5 2.5
12–14 Feb Demos 1,014 21.9 3.5 16.3 13.2 4.8 27.8 6.1 6.4 5.9
12–14 Feb Ixè 1,000 21.5 3.5 0.6 0.7 18.0 10.8 4.7 1.8 28.1 6.0 2.0 2.3 6.6
12–14 Feb Index 800 22.8 2.2 1.0 1.2 16.4 13.8 4.9 2.4 27.6 5.9 1.8 4.8
12–14 Feb SWG 2,000 23.5 2.9 0.8 1.0 15.2 13.4 4.4 2.2 28.3 5.9 0.9 1.5 4.8
5–14 Feb Demetra 6,006 23.7 2.6 0.5 0.6 15.0 14.7 4.4 0.6 29.4 5.3 1.3 0.6 1.3 5.7
13 Feb IPR 22.0 2.8 1.0 2.0 16.5 14.5 4.5 3.0 28.5 4.5 1.0 0.5 6.5
13 Feb Piepoli 25.0 2.5 1.0 0.5 16.0 13.0 5.0 2.5 27.0 6.0 0.5 1.0 2.0
12–13 Feb Tecnè 1,001 21.8 2.6 18.3 12.8 5.0 2.9 28.3 5.3 3.0 6.5
12 Feb Euromedia 800 22.4 2.0 0.7 0.5 17.5 14.1 4.8 2.2 27.0 6.1 0.8 1.9 4.6
8–12 Feb Bidimedia 1,300 24.4 1.9 1.0 1.4 16.3 14.5 3.9 2.5 25.3 4.6 1.2 1.1 1.9 0.9
9–11 Feb EMG 1,614 22.8 2.1 1.6 1.0 16.1 13.9 4.6 2.8 27.3 5.2 0.8 0.6 1.2 4.5
8–11 Feb Lorien 1,000 23.6 1.2 0.8 1.5 17.9 12.3 4.6 1.2 27.6 5.0 2.7 1.5 0.2 4.0
8 Feb SWG 1,000 23.3 2.8 0.8 1.3 15.7 13.1 4.8 2.0 28.0 6.5 0.7 1.0 4.7
8 Feb Index 800 23.5 1.9 1.5 1.1 15.7 14.1 5.0 2.6 27.3 6.0 1.3 3.8
7–8 Feb Demopolis 1,000 22.8 16.3 14.0 4.7 28.3 5.8 8.1 5.5
6–8 Feb EMG 1,683 22.4 2.0 1.6 1.0 15.0 14.6 4.6 2.8 28.1 5.7 2.2 5.7
3–8 Feb Termometro Politico 3,500 21.9 2.1 0.7 0.5 15.3 14.8 5.5 2.0 26.8 5.3 1.5 1.9 1.7 4.9
6–7 Feb Tecnè 1,003 22.1 1.6 18.3 13.2 4.9 2.9 28.0 5.7 3.3 5.9
5–7 Feb Ixè 1,000 22.1 3.0 0.8 0.7 17.3 11.1 4.8 2.0 28.3 6.5 1.3 2.1 6.2
5 Feb Piepoli 500 25.0 3.0 1.0 0.5 16.0 14.0 5.0 2.5 27.0 6.5 0.2 0.3 2.0
2–4 Feb EMG 1,742 23.0 1.9 1.6 1.0 15.8 14.3 4.6 2.8 27.2 5.4 2.0 4.2
1–4 Feb Lorien 1,000 24.0 1.2 0.2 1.6 17.1 12.3 4.4 1.6 28.1 5.7 2.4 1.1 0.3 4.1
30 Jan–2 Feb Bidimedia 1,235 24.2 1.6 1.2 1.6 16.2 13.3 4.2 2.2 26.2 5.0 1.1 0.9 2.3 2.0
22 Jan–2 Feb Termometro Politico 4,000 22.0 1.9 1.2 0.6 15.5 14.0 5.3 1.5 26.8 5.6 1.6 1.8 2.3 4.8
1 Feb Euromedia 800 23.8 1.6 1.1 0.8 17.8 13.8 4.5 2.3 27.2 5.7 0.7 0.3 3.4
1 Feb Index 800 23.8 1.6 1.8 1.1 15.8 13.7 5.0 2.5 26.9 6.3 1.7 3.1
1 Feb Piepoli 800 25.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 15.0 13.0 4.5 2.5 27.5 6.5 0.5 2.0
30 Jan–1 Feb EMG 1,702 23.8 1.6 1.8 1.0 16.0 13.6 4.8 2.8 26.9 5.3 2.0 3.1
29 Jan–1 Feb Ixè 1,000 22.0 2.6 0.4 0.8 17.0 11.5 4.3 2.0 28.7 7.3 1.2 2.2 6.7
29–31 Jan SWG 1,500 23.7 2.0 1.0 1.1 15.9 12.9 5.1 2.3 28.4 6.0 0.5 1.1 4.7
29 Jan Tecnè 898 22.2 1.6 18.3 12.8 5.1 2.8 27.8 6.2 3.2 5.6
28–29 Jan Demopolis 1,500 23.0 16.0 14.0 4.5 29.5 6.0 6.5
26–28 Jan EMG 1,778 24.0 1.6 1.7 1.0 15.9 13.8 5.0 2.8 26.5 5.7 2.0 2.5
25 Jan Euromedia 800 24.3 1.5 0.6 1.1 18.4 13.6 4.5 2.1 26.4 6.0 0.5 1.0 2.1
25 Jan Index 800 24.0 1.3 1.6 1.0 15.8 13.7 5.2 2.1 27.0 6.5 1.8 3.0
25 Jan Piepoli 506 25.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 15.0 13.5 4.5 2.5 27.5 7.0 1.0 2.0
22–25 Jan Ixè 1,000 21.8 2.0 0.7 0.9 16.7 11.9 4.4 2.2 29.2 7.0 3.2 7.4
23–24 Jan Ipsos 1,000 22.7 4.0 16.9 13.7 4.6 1.1 29.3 6.1 1.6 6.6
22–24 Jan SWG 1,500 24.0 1.5 0.9 1.3 16.0 13.0 5.5 2.2 27.8 6.4 0.4 0.6 3.8
22–23 Jan Tecnè 1,501 22.3 1.7 18.3 12.5 5.3 2.8 27.4 6.3 3.4 5.1
22 Jan Lorien 1,000 25.3 1.1 0.2 1.4 15.9 12.2 4.0 1.4 29.2 5.9 1.5 3.9
22 Jan IPR 22.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 16.0 12.0 6.0 3.0 28.0 6.0 2.0 6.0
19–22 Jan Tecnè 801 22.3 1.8 18.2 12.6 5.4 2.8 27.0 6.2 3.7 4.7
19–21 Jan EMG 1,803 23.7 1.4 1.6 1.0 16.0 13.9 5.1 2.7 27.0 6.1 1.1 3.3
17–19 Jan Ixè 1,000 22.3 1.9 0.6 1.2 17.4 11.3 4.5 2.5 27.8 7.4 3.1 5.5
16–17 Jan Index 800 24.0 1.4 1.5 1.0 15.6 13.6 5.3 1.5 27.5 6.5 1.1 3.5
15–17 Jan SWG 1,500 23.6 1.2 0.8 1.3 16.0 13.2 5.7 2.0 27.3 6.8 0.7 1.4 3.7
15 Jan Piepoli 810 25.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 15.0 14.0 5.0 2.5 27.0 7.0 1.0 2.0
15 Jan Euromedia 800 24.2 1.8 0.4 1.2 18.0 13.5 4.4 2.4 26.3 6.0 0.6 1.2 2.1
12–14 Jan EMG 1,889 23.8 1.4 1.5 1.1 15.7 13.8 5.5 2.6 26.8 6.0 1.4 3.0
10–11 Jan Demopolis 1,500 23.5 3.5 15.6 13.8 5.0 1.9 29.2 6.5 1.0 5.7
10–11 Jan Ipsos 998 23.1 1.2 1.4 1.8 16.5 13.8 4.7 0.9 28.7 6.4 0.7 0.8 5.6
9–11 Jan EMG 1,611 23.5 1.3 1.5 1.1 15.3 13.5 5.5 2.4 27.9 5.8 2.2 4.4
8–10 Jan Ixè 2,000 23.1 1.7 1.7 17.2 11.8 4.9 2.4 27.8 7.0 2.4 4.7
8–10 Jan Index 800 24.0 1.5 1.7 0.8 15.0 13.7 5.4 1.6 28.0 6.2 2.1 4.0
8–10 Jan SWG 1,500 23.1 1.3 0.9 1.4 16.7 13.1 5.7 1.6 26.7 6.8 0.7 2.0 3.6
9 Jan IPR 22.0 2.5 0.5 2.5 16.0 13.0 6.3 2.7 28.0 5.0 1.5 6.0
6–9 Jan Bidimedia 1,143 24.1 1.3 1.0 1.4 16.1 12.9 4.5 2.5 27.0 5.9 0.9 0.6 1.8 2.9
8 Jan Tecnè 1,000 20.7 4.3 18.0 12.6 5.3 2.6 28.1 6.7 1.7 7.4
6–8 Jan Demopolis 1,000 24.0 2.5 15.3 14.0 5.0 1.9 29.0 7.0 1.3 5.0
5–7 Jan EMG 1,603 24.1 1.4 1.5 1.0 14.8 13.6 5.5 2.2 28.2 5.6 2.1 4.1

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

Coalition vote

2018

Date Polling firm Centre-left Centre-right M5S LeU Others Lead
4 Mar 2018 General Election 22.8 37.0 32.7 3.4 3.1 4.3
12–16 Feb Termometro Politico 26.3 37.5 26.3 5.3 4.6 11.2
14–15 Feb Demopolis 27.0 38.0 28.0 6.0 1.0 10.0
14 Feb Euromedia 26.1 38.6 26.8 5.8 2.7 11.8
13–14 Feb Piepoli 29.3 37.0 27.0 6.0 0.2 7.7
12–14 Feb Index 27.2 37.5 27.6 5.9 1.8 9.9
12–14 Feb SWG 28.6 35.2 28.3 5.9 2.0 6.6
5–14 Feb Demetra 27.4 34.7 29.4 5.3 3.2 5.3
13 Feb IPR 28.2 38.5 28.5 4.5 0.3 10.0
13 Feb Piepoli 29.3 37.0 27.0 6.0 0.7 7.7
12 Feb Euromedia 26.0 38.6 27.0 6.1 2.3 11.6
8–12 Feb Bidimedia 29.2 37.2 25.3 4.6 3.7 8.0
9–11 Feb EMG 27.9 37.4 27.3 5.2 2.2 9.5
8–11 Feb Lorien 27.1 36.0 27.6 5.0 4.3 8.4
8 Feb SWG 28.5 35.6 28.0 6.5 1.4 7.1
8 Feb Index 28.0 37.4 27.3 6.0 1.3 9.4
7–8 Feb Demopolis 27.5 37.2 28.3 5.8 1.2 8.9
6–8 Feb EMG 27.4 37.0 28.1 5.7 1.8 8.9
3–8 Feb Termometro Politico 25.6 37.6 26.8 5.3 4.7 10.8
6–7 Feb Tecnè 25.7 39.3 28.0 5.7 1.3 11.9
5–7 Feb Ixè 26.6 35.9 28.3 6.5 2.7 7.6
5 Feb Piepoli 29.8 36.5 27.0 6.5 0.2 6.7
2–4 Feb EMG 27.9 37.5 27.2 5.4 2.0 9.6
1–4 Feb Lorien 27.0 35.6 28.1 5.7 3.6 7.5
30 Jan–2 Feb Bidimedia 29.1 35.9 26.2 5.0 3.8 6.8
22 Jan–2 Feb Termometro Politico 26.1 36.3 26.8 5.6 5.2 9.5
30 Jan–1 Feb EMG 28.6 37.2 26.9 5.3 2.0 8.6
29 Jan–1 Feb Ixè 25.8 35.3 28.7 7.3 2.9 6.6
1 Feb Euromedia 27.7 38.4 27.2 5.7 1.0 10.7
1 Feb Piepoli 29.5 35.5 27.5 6.5 0.5 6.0
1 Feb Index 28.3 37.3 26.9 6.3 1.2 9.0
29–31 Jan SWG 28.1 36.2 28.4 6.0 1.5 7.8
29 Jan Tecnè 25.9 39.0 27.8 6.2 1.1 11.2
26-28 Jan EMG 28.7 37.5 26.5 5.7 1.6 8.8
25 Jan Euromedia 27.8 39.1 26.4 6.0 1.0 11.3
25 Jan Index 27.9 37.3 27.0 6.5 1.8 9.4
25 Jan Piepoli 29.0 35.5 27.5 7.0 1.0 6.5
23-24 Jan Ipsos 26.7 36.3 29.3 6.1 1.6 7.0
22-25 Jan Ixè 25.4 35.4 29.2 7.0 3.0 6.2
22-24 Jan SWG 28.1 36.7 27.8 6.4 1.0 8.6
22–23 Jan Tecnè 26.1 39.0 27.4 6.3 1.2 11.6
22 Jan Lorien 28.0 34.0 29.2 5.9 1.0 4.8
22 Jan Piepoli 29.0 35.5 27.5 7.0 1.0 6.5
22 Jan IPR 27.0 37.0 28.0 6.0 2.0 9.0
19–22 Jan Tecnè 26.3 39.2 27.0 6.2 1.3 12.3
19–21 Jan EMG 28.1 37.7 27.0 6.1 1.1 9.6
17–19 Jan Ixè 26.0 35.7 27.8 7.4 3.1 7.9
16–17 Jan Index 27.9 37.0 27.5 6.5 1.1 9.1
15–17 Jan SWG 27.3 37.2 27.3 6.8 1.4 9.9
15 Jan Piepoli 28.5 36.5 27.0 7.0 1.0 8.0
15 Jan Euromedia 27.9 39.0 26.3 6.0 0.8 11.1
12–14 Jan EMG 28.2 37.6 26.8 6.0 1.4 9.4
10–11 Jan Demopolis 27.0 36.3 29.2 6.5 7.1
10–11 Jan Ipsos 27.5 35.9 28.7 6.4 1.5 7.2
9–11 Jan EMG 27.8 37.6 27.9 5.8 1.8 9.7
8–10 Jan Ixè 26.5 36.3 27.8 7.0 2.4 8.5
9 Jan IPR 27.5 38.0 28.0 5.0 1.5 10.0
8–10 Jan Index 28.0 36.7 27.9 6.5 1.1 8.7
8–10 Jan SWG 27.1 37.6 26.7 6.8 1.8 10.5
8 Jan Tecnè 25.0 39.2 28.1 6.7 1.0 11.1
6–9 Jan Bidimedia 28.4 36.0 27.0 5.9 2.7 7.6
6–8 Jan Demopolis 26.5 36.2 29.0 7.0 1.3 7.2
5–7 Jan EMG 28.4 36.1 28.2 5.6 1.7 7.7
6 Jan YouTrend 27.9 34.6 27.3 6.8 3.4 6.7

2017

Seat projections

Chamber of Deputies

  • 630 seats are available. 316 seats are needed for a majority.
  • In some polls only the 618 constituencies in Italy proper are allocated, while the 12 abroad constituencies are omitted.
Date Polling firm Centre-left Centre-right M5S LeU Others Lead Majority
4 Mar 2018 General Election 122 265 227 14 2 38 –51
15 Feb 2018 Index 151 295 147 25 144 –21
14 Feb 2018 Euromedia 156 273 134 26 28 117 –43
13–14 Feb 2018 Piepoli 166 281 145 26 115 –35
12–14 Feb Ixè 123–141 264–297 132–182 24 4–69 82–165 –52 to –19
8 Feb 2018 Index 156 294 143 25 138 –22
7 Feb 2018 Ixè 143 296 161 26 4 135 –20
2 Feb 2018 YouTrend** 153 284 156 25 128 –32
29 Jan–1 Feb 2018 Ixè 134 290 172 30 4 118 –26
25 Jan 2018 Piepoli 162 268 159 29 106 –48
25 Jan 2018 YouTrend** 147 288 155 28 133 –28
22-25 Jan 2018 Ixè 130 290 177 29 4 113 –26
19-21 Jan 2018 EMG 136–176 259–299 139–179 22–26 120 –17
17-19 Jan 2018 Ixè 137 299 161 29 4 138 –17
18 Jan 2018 Ipsos 154 266 170 27 96 –50
10–11 Jan 2018 Ipsos 152 269 169 27 100 –47
6 Jan 2018 YouTrend 187 265 140 26 78 –51
1 Jan 2018 YouTrend 158 280 157 28 7 122 –36
29–31 Dec 2017 Winpoll 134 276 179 30 97 –40
22 Dec 2017 Ixè 138 292 167 29 4 125 –24
21 Dec 2017 YouTrend 187 265 140 26 78 –51
19 Dec 2017 Ipos 151 281 158 27 123 –35
30 Nov 2017 YouTrend 169 267 153 24 4 98 –49
23 Nov 2017 Ixè 162 270 165 25 8 105 –46
8 Nov 2017 Ipos 164 252 173 23 4 79 –64
27 Oct 2017 Ipos 162 248 178 25 4 70 –68
25 Oct 2017 YouTrend 182 221 189 22 4 32 –95
24–25 Oct 2017 Demopolis 180 246 168 24 66 –70
20 Oct 2017 Index 181 261 172 16 N/A 80 –55
18 Oct 2017 Cattaneo 213 209 170 26 4 –103
12 Oct 2017 Ipos 174 238 178 23 4 60 –78
12 Oct 2017 YouTrend 182 221 189 22 4 32 –95

Senate of the Republic

  • 315 seats are available, plus 6 senators for life. 161 seats are needed for a majority.
  • In some polls only the 309 constituencies in Italy proper are allocated, while the 6 abroad constituencies are omitted.
Date Polling firm Centre-left Centre-right M5S LeU Others Lead Majority
4 Mar 2018 General Election 60 137 112 4 2 25 –24
13–14 Feb 2018 Piepoli 92 134 72 11 42 –27
7 Feb 2018 Ixè 68 153 80 12 2 73 –8
1 Feb 2018 YouTrend 77 140 80 12 60 –21
29 Jan–1 Feb 2018 Ixè 65 150 84 14 2 66 –11
25 Jan 2018 YouTrend 79 140 77 13 61 –21
22-25 Jan 2018 Ixè 61 152 87 13 2 65 –9
17-19 Jan 2018 Ixè 65 153 82 13 2 71 –8
6 Jan 2018 YouTrend 80 137 78 14 6 57 –24
1 Jan 2018 YouTrend 82 133 79 15 6 51 –28
29–31 Dec 2017 Winpoll 71 138 87 13 51 –23
22 Dec 2017 Ixè 68 151 83 11 2 58 –10
23 Nov 2017 Ixè 81 135 85 8 6 40 –26

References

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