Muslim population growth

• The six fastest-growing religions in the world are estimated to be Islam (1.84%), the Bahá'í Faith (1.70%), Sikhism (1.62%), Jainism (1.57%), Hinduism (1.52%), and Christianity (1.38%), with high birth rates being cited as the major reason.[7]
• On April 2, 2015, the Pew Research Center published a demographic study about "The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050" with projections of the growth of Islam and reasons why "Islam will grow faster than any other major religion."[1] The study concluded that the global Muslim population is expected to grow at a faster rate than the non-Muslim population due primarily to the young age and high fertility rate of Muslims.[8][9]

Projected global Muslim population (2010-2050):

1. The number of Muslims world-wide is projected to increase from about 1.6 billion in 2010 to nearly 2.8 billion in 2050. Consequently, Muslims are projected to rise from 23% of the world’s population in 2010 to 30% in 2050.
2. Muslims are expected to grow twice as fast as the overall global population (the expected annual growth rate of Muslims is projected to be 0.6 p.p. above the rate for the world’s population through 2050)
3. If current trends continue, by 2050 the number of Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians around the world.
4. In Europe, Muslims will make up 10% of the overall population.
5. India will retain a Hindu majority with Hindus making up about 77 percent of the total population but it will also have the largest Muslim population in the world by 2050, surpassing Indonesia.
6. In the United States, Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian religion. Muslims will be more numerous in the U.S. than people who identify as Jewish on the basis of religion.

Reasons given for the projected growth

1. The change in the world's religious is "driven primarily by differences in fertility rates and the size of youth populations among the world's major religions, as well as by people switching faiths."
2. Fertility rates. The world's total population "is expected to rise to 9.3 billion, a 35% increase" between 2010 and 2050, However, "over that same period, Muslims, who have a comparatively youthful population with high fertility rates, are projected to increase by 73%." Muslim growth benefits from the fertility factor because "globally, Muslims have the highest fertility rate, an average of 3.1 children per woman." This is above a replacement level of 2.1 which is "the minimum typically needed to maintain a stable population."
3. Size of youth population. "In 2010, more than a quarter of the world's total population (27%) was under the age of 15. But a "higher percentage of Muslims (34%) were younger than 15."
4. Size of old population. In 2010, "11% of the world's population was at least 60 years old," but only 7% of Muslims were over 60.
5. Switching. Between 2010 and 2050 a gain of 3,220,000 Muslim adherents is projected to come through switching, mostly found in the Sub Saharan Africa (2.9 million). Also, the Muslim population are projected to add 1.3 million and lose 880,000 via switching, for a net gain of 420,000 between 2015 and 2020.
6. Migration. Migration is the third reason for the Muslim population growth. For example, 1.8% of the projected growth in Europe is attributed to Muslims migrating in.

Islam is currently the largest religion in Asia. According to the Pew Research Center, 27.3% of the people living in the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 will be Muslim, up from about a quarter in 2010 (24.8%) and 21.6% in 1990.[3]

Islam is the fastest-growing religion in India.[10] Growth rate of Muslims has been consistently higher than the growth rate of Hindus, ever since the census data of independent India has been available. For example, during the 1991-2001 decade, Muslim growth rate was 29.5% (vs 19.9% for Hindus). However, Muslims population growth rate declined to 24.6% during 2001-2011 decade, in keeping with the similar decline in most religious groups of India.[11][12][13][14]

In India regarding attitudes "toward birth control," younger (ages 10–19) Muslim women are less likely to favor it than are older (ages 20–30). Regarding "knowledge of birth control," younger (ages 10–19) Muslim women know less than do older (ages 20–30). "Muslim marriages take place earlier" than other religions, and younger (ages 10–19) Muslim women are more likely to want to have "many children" than are older (ages 20–30).[15]

According to Paul Kurtz, Muslims in India are much more resistant to modern contraceptive measures compared to other Indians and, as a consequence, the fertility rate among non-Muslim women is much lower compared to that of Muslim women.[16][17] Islam is the second-largest religion in India, making up 14.2% of the country's population with about 172 million adherents (2011 census).[18] In 2010, India had the second largest population of Muslims, after Indonesia and ahead of Pakistan.[19]

In China, Muslim population growth has been estimated to be as much as 2.7% from 1964–1982, however the Pew Research Center projects a slowing down of Muslim population growth in China due to the harsh treatment towards Muslims in China such as the in Xinjiang and due partly to the fact that many Hui Muslims are ordered by the government to limit themselves to one child in China. [20] By contrast, China's Christian population growth has been estimated at 4.7% based on total population figures from the year 1949. [21] The number of permitted births in China varies between one and three children depending on geographic area.[22] Chinese family planning policy allows minorities, including Muslims, to have up to two children in urban areas, and three to four children in rural areas.

Islam is the fastest-growing religion in Europe.[23][24] According to the Pew Research Center, the Muslim population in Europe (excluding Turkey) was about 30 million in 1990, 44 million in 2010 and is expected to increase to 58 million by 2030; the Muslim share of the population increased from 4.1% in 1990 to 6% in 2010 and is expected to reach 8% in 2030.[3] In recent years, "Europe has experienced a record influx of asylum seekers fleeing from Syria and predominantly Muslim countries" due to various conflicts in its country.[25] And, the wave of Muslim migrants has caused debates about immigration and security policies and raised questions about the current and future number of Muslims in Europe.[25] There were approximately 19 million Muslims in the European Union in 2010 or about (3.8%).[26] Data for the rates of growth of Islam in Europe reveal that the growing number of Muslims is due primarily to immigration.[27] Additionally, average Muslims today are younger and have a higher fertility than other Europeans.[25] Between the mid-2010 and mid-2016, migration was the biggest factor driving the growth of Muslim populations in Europe.[28] Approximately, 2.5 million Muslims came to Europe for reasons other than employment and education.[28] And, more than 1.3 million Muslims received and are expected to receive refugee status, allowing them to stay in Europe.[28]

In 2016, the median age of Muslims throughout Europe was 30.4, 13 years younger than the median age of other Europeans.[28] 50% of all European Muslims are younger than 30, however, only 32% of non-Muslims in Europe were under the age of 30.[28] While the birth rate for Muslims in Europe is expected to decline over the next two decades, it will remain slightly higher than in the non-Muslim population.[3][29][30]

Pew Research Center has provided three different projections (high, medium, zero migration) regarding the expected future migration levels.[31][28] Even in the zero migration scenario, the Muslim population is expected to rise from 3.8% to 4.9% by 2050.[31] In medium and high migration scenario, it assumes the Muslims to reach 11.2% and 14% respectively.[31] On the other hand, the non-Muslim population is expected to decrease in all three scenarios.[31][28]

In France there are an estimated 100,000 Muslim converts, compared with about 50,000 in 1986.[32] The population mostly originate from Algeria, Morocco, and, France is home to a third of EU Muslims.[33] As of mid-2016, there are 5.7 million Muslims in France (8.8% of the population) and the Muslim population continues to grow.[28]

In Germany, there are approximately 5 million Muslims (6.1% of the population), and at least 2.3 million trace their origin to Turkey.[28][33] The “guest worker program” and the domination of Turkish religious authorities have increased German Islam.[33] A report from Pew found "Germany as the top destination for Muslim migrants between 2010 and 2016".[31]

The United Kingdom is home to 1.5 to 2 million Muslims (3% of the population) and has the highest number of Muslim migrants.[31][33] Most originate from South Asia, particularly Pakistan.[33]

The presence of Muslims in Italy is fairly new. There are approximately 1 million Muslims (1.5% of the population) and most come from Morocco and Albania.[33]