Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (UK Parliament constituency)

The 2011 UK Census revealed that the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency had an above-average unemployment rate at 5.6% compared to the Scottish average of 4.8%, with a significant proportion of residents living in local authority housing at 20.2% compared to the Scottish average of 13.2%. The constituency also had a high proportion of retired people and Church of Scotland Protestants at the Census relative to elsewhere in Scotland, with 19% of those living in the constituency retired (14.9% across Scotland) and 43.3% of constituents recognising their religion as Church of Scotland (32.4% across Scotland). 90% of residents identified their ethnicity as White British, with 99% recognising their ethnicity as White.[1] On indicators such as health, educational attainment, income and social class however the area is a mainly affluent area as a whole.

Ayr is a large coastal resort town located to the north-west of the constituency, consisting of a mixture of council estates and very affluent areas. The town has traditionally been the strongest part of the constituency for the Conservative Party with them winning most elections in the town area, With the SNP, performing well towards the more industrialised area north of the town and the Conservatives performing stronger in the suburbs in the south of the town like Alloway.

To the south-west of the constituency is the rural region of Carrick, running down the Ayrshire coast between Ayr and Galloway which includes many towns and villages such as Maybole, Turnberry and Girvan. This area has traditionally been more hospitable to the SNP in recent years, in comparison to Ayr, with the Conservatives performing better in rural areas. To the north of Carrick, the village of Coylton has returned a strong vote for Conservative candidates in previous elections.

Further east, the constituency stretches into the south of the East Ayrshire Council area to cover a set of former mining communities around Cumnock and Doon Valley - Its an area which has traditionally returned a much stronger vote for the SNP and weaker Conservative vote in comparison to elsewhere in the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency.[2][3][4][5]

In 2005, approximately two-thirds of the former Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency was attached to half of the former marginal seat of Ayr to form the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency. Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley had been represented in the UK Parliament by the Labour Party since the 1935 general election, whilst Ayr was represented by the Conservative Party from the 1906 general election until Labour gained the seat during their 1997 landslide electoral victory, from which point onwards the constituency was represented by Labour, with the Conservatives coming in a close second place.

The newly formed Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency was won by Labour's Sandra Osborne at the 2005 general election with a majority of 9,997 votes (22.2%) ahead of the Conservatives. This was reduced slightly to 9,911 votes (21.6%) in 2010, before the constituency fell to the SNP at the 2015 SNP landslide, with SNP candidate Corri Wilson overturning incumbent Labour MP Sandra Osborne's 13,356 vote lead over the SNP (29.1%), securing the constituency with a majority of 11,265 votes (21.6%). Bill Grant of the Conservatives gained the seat at the 2017 snap general election with a majority of 2,774 votes (6.0%) over Corri Wilson of the SNP. In the 2019 General Election, Allan Dorans of the SNP gained the seat from the Conservatives to take the seat again for a second time

The constituency overlaps the Scottish Parliamentary constituencies of Ayr and Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley. Ayr has been represented by Conservative MSP John Scott since a by-election in 2000. Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley has been represented by the SNP since the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary election. The current MSP for Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley is Jeane Freeman.

The Conservatives have been the largest party on South Ayrshire Council since 2003, taking control of the Council in 2006. The Ayr West ward has traditionally been the strongest part of the Council for the Conservative party, with Ayr East also returning a considerable Conservative vote. More recently, the party have also gained votes in the more rural area of Carrick to the south of Ayr, with the SNP forming the largest party in the Ayr North ward.

The SNP have formed the largest party on East Ayrshire Council since 2012, however, Labour remain the largest party in Cumnock and Doon Valley, the part of East Ayrshire covered by the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock parliamentary constituency.