2003 Lower Saxony state election

The 2003 Lower Saxony state election was held on 2 February 2003 to elect the members of the 15th Landtag of Lower Saxony. The incumbent Social Democratic Party (SPD) majority government led by Minister-President Sigmar Gabriel was defeated. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came up one seat short of a majority, and formed a coalition with the Free Democratic Party (FDP). CDU leader Christian Wulff was subsequently elected Minister-President.

2003 Lower Saxony state election

2 February 2003

All 183 seats in the Landtag of Lower Saxony
92 seats needed for a majority
Turnout3,984,009 (67.0%)
6.8%
  First party Second party
 
Leader Christian Wulff Sigmar Gabriel
Party CDU SPD
Last election 62 seats, 35.9% 83 seats, 47.9%
Seats won 91 63
Seat change 29 20
Popular vote 1,925,055 1,330,156
Percentage 48.3% 33.4%
Swing 12.4% 14.5%

  Third party Fourth party
 
Party FDP Green
Last election 0 seats, 4.9% 12 seats, 7.0%
Seats won 15 14
Seat change 15 2
Popular vote 323,107 304,532
Percentage 8.1% 7.6%
Swing 3.2% 0.6%

Minister-President before election

Sigmar Gabriel
SPD

Elected Minister-President

Christian Wulff
CDU

Background

The election in Lower Saxony had larger significance than just in the state itself.[1] Defeat for the Social Democrats in the election would mean they lost their slim majority in the upper house of the German parliament, the Bundesrat.[1] It was thought this might cause the collapse of Gerhard Schröder's national coalition government between the Social Democrats and the Green Party.[1]

Campaign and issues

The economy was seen as the most important issue in the election, with the Social Democrats suffering as a result.[2]

Opinion polls in December 2002 showed the Christian Democrats in the lead with 43% as against 34% for the Social Democrats.[3]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 14th Landtag of Lower Saxony.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 1998 result
Votes (%) Seats
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Sigmar Gabriel 47.9%
83 / 157
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Christian Wulff 35.9%
62 / 157
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics 7.0%
12 / 157

Opinion polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
SPD CDU Grüne FDP Others Lead
2003 state election 2 February 2003 33.4 48.3 7.6 8.1 2.5 14.9
Forsa 27–30 Jan 2003 1,014 33 48 8 7 4 15
Forsa 20–24 Jan 2003 1,103 35 48 8 6 3 13
Emnid 23 Jan 2003 ? 37 46 9 5 3 9
Infratest dimap 16–20 Jan 2003 1,000 36 48 7 5 4 12
Forsa 13–18 Jan 2003 1,008 36 48 8 5 3 12
Infratest dimap 9–13 Jan 2003 1,000 37 46 8 6 3 9
Forsa 6–10 Jan 2003 1,027 37 46 9 5 3 9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 6–9 Jan 2003 1,044 37 45 8 6 4 8
Forsa 27 Dec 2002–3 Jan 2003 1,122 36 46 10 5 3 10
Infratest dimap 2–4 Dec 2002 1,000 40 45 7 5 3 5
Emnid 14–20 Nov 2002 1,003 34 43 12 6 5 9
Forsa 23 Sep 2002 ? 47 36.5 7.5 4.5 4.5 11.5
Emnid 30 Aug–4 Sep 2002 1,000 42 38 7 8 5 4
Infratest dimap 14 Jun 2002 1,000 45 35 6 11 3 10
Emnid 31 May 2002 ? 39 37 6 12 6 2
Forsa 17 Apr 2002 ? 43 41 6 4 6 2
Emnid 21–27 Feb 2002 1,000 43 37 7 8 5 6
Forsa 11–27 Feb 2002 1,327 43 39 6 5 7 4
Infratest dimap 31 Aug 2001 ? 44 36 6 9 5 8
Forsa 22 Jun 2001 ? 46 37 7 5 5 9
Infratest dimap 20 Feb 2001 ? 48 35 7 5 5 13
Forsa 28 Oct 1999 ? 41 46 6 4 3 5
Infratest dimap 21–24 Oct 1999 1,000 41 46 5 4 4 5
1998 state election 1 March 1998 47.9 35.9 7.0 4.9 4.3 12.0

Election result

Summary of the 2 February 2003 election results for the Landtag of Lower Saxony

Party Votes % +/- Seats +/- Seats %
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 1,925,055 48.3 12.4 91 29 49.7
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 1,330,156 33.4 14.5 63 20 34.4
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 323,107 8.1 3.2 15 15 8.2
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) 304,532 7.6 0.6 14 2 7.7
Party for a Rule of Law Offensive (Schill party) 40,342 1.0 New 0 New 0
Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) 21,560 0.5 0.5 0 ±0 0
Others 39,257 1.0 0 ±0 0
Total 3,984,009 100.0 183 26
Voter turnout 67.0 6.8
Popular Vote
CDU
48.32%
SPD
33.38%
FDP
8.11%
B'90/GRÜNE
7.64%
SCHILL
1.01%
PDS
0.54%
Other
0.99%
Landtag seats
CDU
49.73%
SPD
34.43%
FDP
8.20%
B'90/GRÜNE
7.65%

References

  1. Hall, Allan (2002-12-01). "The joke's on Schroder as Germans seek serious answers to economic crisis". Scotland on Sunday. p. 21.
  2. "State voters reject Schroeder". CNN. 2003-02-03. Retrieved 2009-09-20.
  3. Hall, Allan (2002-12-26). "Germany is desperately seeking Schroder as chancellor loses his grip". The Scotsman. p. 9.
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