Roy Amara

Roy Amara
Born Roy Charles Amara
(1925-04-07)7 April 1925
Died 31 December 2007(2007-12-31) (aged 82)

Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925[1] – 31 December 2007[2]) was an American researcher, scientist, futurist[3] and president of the Institute for the Future best known for coining Amara's law on the effect of technology. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering,[4] and also worked at the Stanford Research Institute.

Amara's law

His adage about forecasting the effects of technology has become known as Amara's law and states:

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.[5][6][7]

This law has been described as encouraging people to think about the long-term effects of technology,[8] and has been described as best illustrated by the hype cycle,[9] characterized by the "peak of inflated expectations" followed by the "trough of disillusionment".[10] The law has been used in explaining cyber-attacks[11] and nanotechnology.[12]

Selected bibliography

Books

  • Amara, Roy; Boucher, Wayne I. (1977). National Science Foundation, ed. The study of the future: an agenda for research. Washington, D.C.: General Post Office. OCLC 3200105.
  • Amara, Roy; Lipinski, Andrew J. (1983). Business planning for an uncertain future: scenarios & strategies. New York: Pergamon Press. ISBN 9780080275451.
  • Amara, Roy; Morrison, J. Ian; Schmid, Gregory (1988). Looking ahead at American health care. Washington, D.C.: McGraw-Hill, Healthcare Information Center. ISBN 9780070013841.
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (2003). Health and health care 2010: the forecast, the challenge (2nd ed.). Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 9780470932513.

Reports

  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1972). A framework for national science policy analysis (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 4484161. P-18. Reprinted from IEEE transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics, v. SMC-2, no. 1 January 1972
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1972). Toward a framework for national goals and policy research (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 11724396. Reprinted from IEEE Transactions on systems, man and cybernetics, v. SMC-2, no. 5 November 1972
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1972). The social responsibilities of business (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 5744644. Prepared for the White House Conference on the Industrial World Ahead, Washington, D.C., 2–9 February 1972
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1973). Draft summaries of four workshops on the social impact of the computer (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 709544477.
  • Amara, Roy; Lipinski, Andrew J.; Institute for the future (1974). Strategic planning: penetrating the corporate barriers (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 4349610.
  • Amara, Roy; World Future Society (1975). The next 25 years: crises and challenges (Report). Menlo Park, California: World Future Society. OCLC 3693807. P-31. Presented at the World Future Society Second General Assembly Plenary Session, June 2, 1975
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1975). Some methods of futures research (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 2456542.
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1975). Emerging societal issues: some suggestions for research (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 17817243. WP-22.
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). The U.S. in the decade ahead: an inventory of resources: American Vocational Association national convention, 4 December, 1978 (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7527420. P-72.
  • Amara, Roy; Lipinski, Hubert; Spangler, Kathleen; Institute for the future (1978). Communication needs in computer modeling (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7511471. P-67. Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.[13]
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). The future of voluntarism: meeting changing societal needs (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7293285. P-69.
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). Planning, futures and the skeptics (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 6661254.
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). Toward understanding the social impact of computers (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 1166342. R-29.
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1980). The future of management: ten shapers of management in the '80s (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 8390527. P-80.
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1980). Imperatives for tomorrow: the I's have it: images, institutions, involvement (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7917815. P-87.
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1980). The futures field (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7919207. P-95.

References

  1. ↑ "Amara, Roy". Library of Congress. Retrieved 18 February 2015. data sheet (Amara, Roy Charles, b. 4/7/25)
  2. ↑ Pescovitz, David (3 January 2008). "Roy Amara, forecaster, RIP". BoingBoing. Retrieved 18 February 2015.
  3. ↑ Four Geeky Laws That Rule Our World
  4. ↑ "Roy Amara (biography)". University of Arizona: Anticipating the future (course), Futures Thinkers. Retrieved 18 February 2015.
  5. ↑ Susan Ratcliffe, ed. (2016). "Roy Amara 1925–2007, American futurologist". Oxford Essential Quotations (4th ed.). Oxford University Press.
  6. ↑ "Encyclopedia: Definition of: Amara's law". PC Magazine. Retrieved 18 February 2015.
  7. ↑ Doc Searls (2012). The Intention Economy: When Customers Take Charge. Harvard Business Press. p. 257. ISBN 978-1-4221-5852-4.
  8. ↑ 10 laws of tech: the rules that define our world
  9. ↑ Amara's Law
  10. ↑ Hyper Cycle for Emerging Technologies
  11. ↑ VTech Breach, Amara's Law and Long-term Effects of Cyber Attacks
  12. ↑ Context
  13. ↑ Roy Amara at DBLP bibliography


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