Opinion polling in the 43rd Canadian federal election
This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted from the 2015 Canadian federal election leading up to the 43rd Canadian federal election, which is scheduled for October 21, 2019.
Pre-campaign period
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 43rd Canadian federal election. Plot generated in R from data in the table below. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and margin of error. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the regressions, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals. -- Source code for plot generation is available here.
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | LPC | CPC | NDP | BQ | GPC | Margin of error[1] |
Sample size[2] |
Polling method[3] | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | October 5, 2018 | 37.3 | 31.1 | 16.2 | 3.8 | 6.7 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 6.2 | |
| Innovative Research | October 1, 2018 | 38 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 7 | n/a | 2,410 | online | 7 | |
| Nanos Research | September 28, 2018 | 38.0 | 31.7 | 16.7 | 2.6 | 6.0 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 6.3 | |
| Nanos Research | September 21, 2018 | 39.0 | 31.2 | 17.0 | 2.4 | 5.5 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.8 | |
| Pollara | September 20, 2018 | 40 | 34 | 12 | 3 | 7 | ±3.1 pp | 1,002 | online | 6 | |
| Abacus Data | September 19, 2018 | HTML | 38 | 34 | 17 | 3 | 7 | ±2.2 pp | 2,000 | online | 4 |
| Campaign Research | September 14, 2018 | HTML | 36 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 7 | ±2.5 pp | 1,486 | online | 2 |
| Nanos Research | September 14, 2018 | 41.1 | 31.4 | 14.9 | 2.0 | 5.8 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 9.7 | |
| Nanos Research | September 7, 2018 | 39.9 | 32.8 | 14.9 | 2.5 | 6.5 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.1 | |
| Nanos Research | August 31, 2018 | 39.9 | 32.4 | 15.8 | 3.4 | 6.7 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.5 | |
| Abacus Data | August 25, 2018 | HTML | 37 | 34 | 18 | 3 | 6 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 | online | 3 |
| Nanos Research | August 24, 2018 | 38.8 | 34.4 | 16.5 | 2.9 | 6.3 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 4.4 | |
| Abacus Data | August 20, 2018 | HTML | 37 | 33 | 18 | 3 | 8 | ±2.5 pp | 1,500 | online | 4 |
| Nanos Research | August 17, 2018 | 37.5 | 33.9 | 19.0 | 3.2 | 5.7 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 3.6 | |
| Forum Research | August 12, 2018 | 36 | 42 | 15 | 2 | 4 | ±3 pp | 1,777 | IVR | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | August 10, 2018 | 35.8 | 35.1 | 20.1 | 3.2 | 4.8 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 0.7 | |
| Nanos Research | August 3, 2018 | 36.9 | 36.6 | 17.8 | 2.3 | 5.2 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 0.3 | |
| Nanos Research | July 27, 2018 | 35.8 | 35.2 | 19.1 | 2.2 | 6.6 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 0.6 | |
| EKOS | July 26, 2018 | 34.9 | 32.1 | 17.3 | 4.0 | 9.3 | ±2.7 pp | 1,302 | IVR | 2.8 | |
| Abacus Data | July 22, 2018 | HTML | 36 | 34 | 19 | 3 | 7 | ±2.2 pp | 2,000 | online | 2 |
| Nanos Research | July 20, 2018 | 35.8 | 35.9 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 6.1 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 0.1 | |
| Mainstreet Research | July 17, 2018 | HTML | 39.4 | 36.9 | 11.8 | 2.4 | 7.0 | ±1.01 pp | 9,384 | IVR | 2.5 |
| Ipsos | July 16, 2018 | HTML | 39 | 32 | 21 | 2 | 6 | ±3.5 pp | 1,000 | online | 7 |
| Nanos Research | July 13, 2018 | 37.3 | 34.5 | 18.4 | 1.8 | 7.1 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 2.8 | |
| Nanos Research | July 6, 2018 | 35.7 | 33.4 | 20.3 | 2.4 | 6.8 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 2.3 | |
| Ipsos | June 29, 2018 | HTML | 33 | 37 | 21 | 3 | 5 | ±3.5 pp | 1,002 | online | 4 |
| Nanos Research | June 29, 2018 | 36.5 | 33.1 | 20.8 | 2.7 | 5.4 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 3.4 | |
| Nanos Research | June 22, 2018 | 36.7 | 32.0 | 20.6 | 3.6 | 5.7 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 4.7 | |
| Campaign Research | June 18, 2018 | HTML | 34 | 36 | 18 | 3 | 8 | ±2.5 pp | 1,579 | online | 2 |
| Ipsos | June 15, 2018 | HTML | 32 | 36 | 20 | 5 | 7 | ±3.5 pp | 1,001 | online | 4 |
| Nanos Research | June 15, 2018 | 36.9 | 32.5 | 19.9 | 4.1 | 5.1 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 4.4 | |
| Angus Reid | June 14, 2018 | 36 | 32 | 16 | 4 | 9 | ±3.1 pp | 1,023 | online | 4 | |
| Nanos Research | June 8, 2018 | 35.3 | 33.0 | 22.0 | 4.1 | 4.8 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 2.3 | |
| Nanos Research | June 1, 2018 | 34.1 | 34.0 | 21.2 | 4.4 | 5.4 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 0.1 | |
| Forum Research | May 31, 2018 | 31 | 44 | 17 | 2 | 5 | ±3 pp | 969 | IVR | 13 | |
| Nanos Research | May 25, 2018 | 33.0 | 36.0 | 19.8 | 4.0 | 6.4 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 3.0 | |
| Nanos Research | May 18, 2018 | 35.1 | 34.0 | 20.1 | 3.6 | 5.9 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 1.1 | |
| Forum Research | May 16, 2018 | 30 | 46 | 18 | 2 | 4 | ±3 pp | 1,484 | IVR | 16 | |
| Innovative Research | May 14, 2018 | 35 | 38 | 15 | 4 | 7 | N/A | 2,327 | online | 3 | |
| Nanos Research | May 11, 2018 | 36.1 | 34.4 | 18.5 | 3.7 | 6.0 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 1.7 | |
| Léger | May 10, 2018 | HTML | 39 | 36 | 15 | 2 | ±2.1 pp | 2,103 | online | 3 | |
| Nanos Research | May 4, 2018 | 38.0 | 33.2 | 17.6 | 4.2 | 5.4 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 4.8 | |
| Innovative Research | May 2, 2018 | 35 | 38 | 16 | 4 | 6 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 | telephone | 3 | |
| Ipsos | April 30, 2018 | HTML | 36 | 35 | 20 | 3 | 6 | ±2.6 pp | 1,907 | online | 1 |
| Nanos Research | April 27, 2018 | 39.2 | 30.6 | 18.2 | 4.4 | 5.9 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 8.6 | |
| Forum Research | April 20, 2018 | 30 | 43 | 14 | 4 | 8 | ±2 pp | 1,585 | IVR | 13 | |
| Nanos Research | April 20, 2018 | 38.2 | 31.6 | 17.9 | 3.7 | 7.0 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 6.6 | |
| Mainstreet Research | April 18, 2018 | HTML | 40.4 | 37.1 | 11.9 | 2.6 | 5.9 | ±1.01 pp | 9,401 | IVR | 3.3 |
| Nanos Research | April 13, 2018 | 41.1 | 29.2 | 15.8 | 3.8 | 8.2 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 11.9 | |
| Nanos Research | April 6, 2018 | 38.2 | 32.9 | 17.2 | 3.0 | 7.0 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 5.3 | |
| Nanos Research | March 29, 2018 | 39.1 | 33.7 | 16.4 | 2.4 | 6.5 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 5.4 | |
| Ipsos | March 23, 2018 | HTML | 31 | 38 | 23 | 3 | 6 | ±3.5 pp | 1,003 | online | 7 |
| Nanos Research | March 23, 2018 | 38.1 | 34.7 | 16.8 | 3.1 | 5.5 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 3.4 | |
| Nanos Research | March 16, 2018 | 35.9 | 34.8 | 18.5 | 3.5 | 6.2 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 1.1 | |
| Angus Reid | March 15, 2018 | 30 | 40 | 19 | 4 | 6 | ±2 pp | 5,423 | online | 10 | |
| Nanos Research | March 9, 2018 | 35.8 | 33.1 | 19.3 | 4.5 | 6.7 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 2.7 | |
| Léger | March 8, 2018 | 38 | 38 | 14 | 3 | 5 | ±2.5 pp | 1,536 | online | 0 | |
| Abacus Data | March 4, 2018 | 36 | 33 | 18 | 3 | 8 | ±2.2 pp | 4,023 | online | 3 | |
| Nanos Research | March 2, 2018 | 36.5 | 32.7 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 7.1 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 3.8 | |
| Ipsos | March 1, 2018 | 33 | 38 | 21 | 3 | 5 | ±3.5 pp | 1,001 | online | 5 | |
| Forum Research | March 1, 2018 | 34 | 46 | 14 | 2 | 3 | ±3 pp | 941 | IVR | 12 | |
| Nanos Research | February 23, 2018 | 37.7 | 31.5 | 19.2 | 3.8 | 6.9 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 6.2 | |
| Nanos Research | February 16, 2018 | 36.6 | 30.8 | 20.3 | 3.3 | 8.0 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 5.8 | |
| Campaign Research | February 10, 2018 | HTML | 39 | 32 | 16 | 4 | 7 | ±2.1 pp | 2,227 | online | 7 |
| Nanos Research | February 9, 2018 | 38.1 | 30.4 | 18.5 | 3.1 | 8.8 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.7 | |
| Nanos Research | February 2, 2018 | 38.1 | 30.3 | 19.7 | 3.0 | 7.6 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.8 | |
| Abacus Data | January 28, 2018 | 39 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 6 | ±2.7 pp | 1,411 | online | 7 | |
| Nanos Research | January 26, 2018 | 37.8 | 30.6 | 19.9 | 3.5 | 7.5 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.2 | |
| Forum Research | January 24, 2018 | 38 | 43 | 12 | 3 | 3 | ±3 pp | 1,408 | IVR | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | January 19, 2018 | 37.9 | 34.4 | 17.3 | 3.7 | 6.0 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 3.5 | |
| Nanos Research | January 12, 2018 | 37.0 | 33.8 | 20.0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 3.2 | |
| Campaign Research | January 11, 2018 | HTML | 42 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 7 | ±2.3 pp | 1,887 | online | 13 |
| Mainstreet Research | January 6, 2018 | HTML | 40.3 | 34.5 | 13.1 | 4.4 | 7.7 | ±0.99 pp | 9,830 | IVR | 5.8 |
| Nanos Research | January 5, 2018 | 40.9 | 30.7 | 19.5 | 3.7 | 4.8 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 10.2 | |
| Nanos Research | December 29, 2017 | 41.6 | 30.1 | 20.1 | 3.5 | 4.2 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 11.5 | |
| Nanos Research | December 22, 2017 | 42.8 | 29.1 | 20.0 | 3.3 | 4.2 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 13.7 | |
| Nanos Research | December 15, 2017 | 41.9 | 29.3 | 19.1 | 3.4 | 5.7 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 12.6 | |
| Forum Research | December 14, 2017 | 38 | 39 | 12 | 5 | 5 | ±3 pp | 1,284 | IVR | 1 | |
| Ipsos | December 14, 2017 | 38 | 31 | 20 | 5 | 7 | ±2.4 pp | 2,098 | online | 7 | |
| Nanos Research | December 8, 2017 | 40.7 | 30.3 | 17.5 | 3.8 | 6.7 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 10.4 | |
| Nanos Research | December 1, 2017 | 40.1 | 30.7 | 16.5 | 4.2 | 6.9 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 9.4 | |
| Léger | November 30, 2017 | 40 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 8 | ±2.4 pp | 1,609 | online | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | November 24, 2017 | 38.8 | 30.6 | 17.2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 8.2 | |
| Nanos Research | November 17, 2017 | 39.3 | 30.7 | 16.6 | 5.0 | 7.0 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 8.6 | |
| Abacus Data | November 14, 2017 | 40 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 6 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 8 | |
| Nanos Research | November 10, 2017 | 38.3 | 30.9 | 17.5 | 5.3 | 6.0 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.4 | |
| Campaign Research | November 9, 2017 | HTML | 38 | 30 | 19 | 5 | 7 | ±1.9 pp | 2,616 | online | 8 |
| Forum Research | November 6, 2017 | 36 | 38 | 14 | 6 | 6 | ±3 pp | 1,281 | IVR | 2 | |
| Nanos Research | November 3, 2017 | 36.6 | 29.6 | 19.0 | 5.9 | 6.4 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.0 | |
| Nanos Research | October 27, 2017 | 36.1 | 29.6 | 18.5 | 6.1 | 6.6 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 6.5 | |
| Insights West | October 26, 2017 | HTML | 35 | 33 | 20 | 4 | 7 | ±3.1 pp | 1,005 | online | 2 |
| Ipsos | October 25, 2017 | 38 | 30 | 23 | 4 | 4 | ±3.5 pp | 1,001 | online | 8 | |
| Léger | October 25, 2017 | 42 | 30 | 15 | 4 | 7 | ±2.5 pp | 1,534 | online | 12 | |
| Abacus Data | October 23, 2017 | 39 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 5 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 4 | |
| Nanos Research | October 20, 2017 | 35.0 | 30.8 | 17.7 | 6.3 | 6.9 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 4.2 | |
| Environics | October 16, 2017 | 38 | 30 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 2,000 | online | 8 | ||
| Nanos Research | October 13, 2017 | 34.6 | 31.3 | 16.3 | 7.2 | 7.3 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 3.3 | |
| Angus Reid | October 12, 2017 | 35 | 35 | 18 | 4 | 6 | ±2.5 pp | 1,492 | online | 0 | |
| Campaign Research | October 11, 2017 | HTML | 38 | 30 | 19 | 4 | 8 | ±2.2 pp | 2,002 | online | 8 |
| Nanos Research | October 6, 2017 | 36.9 | 32.0 | 15.4 | 6.6 | 5.6 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 4.9 | |
| Angus Reid | October 4, 2017 | HTML | 37 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 8 | ±2.5 pp | 1,477 | online | 1 |
| EKOS | October 1, 2017 | 34.4 | 33.3 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 8.9 | ±1.4 pp | 4,839 | IVR | 1.1 | |
| Nanos Research | September 29, 2017 | 38.1 | 31.2 | 15.2 | 6.3 | 6.7 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 6.9 | |
| Ipsos | September 27, 2017 | 39 | 32 | 20 | 5 | 4 | ±3.5 pp | 1,001 | online | 7 | |
| Nanos Research | September 22, 2017 | 38.5 | 32.5 | 14.6 | 6.1 | 5.7 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 6.0 | |
| Nanos Research | September 15, 2017 | 40.9 | 30.0 | 15.5 | 6.0 | 5.5 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 10.9 | |
| Forum Research | September 14, 2017 | 35 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 4 | ±3 pp | 1,350 | IVR | 4 | |
| Campaign Research | September 11, 2017 | HTML | 42 | 30 | 16 | 5 | 6 | ±2.3 pp | 1,770 | online | 12 |
| Nanos Research | September 8, 2017 | 42.0 | 30.1 | 15.9 | 4.6 | 5.9 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 11.9 | |
| Abacus Data | September 3, 2017 | 43 | 31 | 17 | 3 | 6 | ±2.6 pp | 1,512 | online | 12 | |
| Nanos Research | September 1, 2017 | 41.2 | 32.0 | 15.7 | 4.9 | 4.7 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 9.2 | |
| Mainstreet Research | August 31, 2017 | HTML | 43 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 5 | ±2.19 pp | 2,000 | telephone | 11 |
| Nanos Research | August 25, 2017 | 41.9 | 30.8 | 16.4 | 4.3 | 5.0 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 11.1 | |
| Nanos Research | August 18, 2017 | 39.4 | 31.0 | 18.2 | 5.1 | 4.9 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 8.4 | |
| Forum Research | August 17, 2017 | 42 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 4 | ±3 pp | 1,150 | IVR | 7 | |
| Nanos Research | August 11, 2017 | 37.8 | 31.1 | 19.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 6.7 | |
| Nanos Research | August 4, 2017 | 37.5 | 29.3 | 20.2 | 6.4 | 5.4 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 8.2 | |
| Nanos Research | July 28, 2017 | 36.7 | 29.1 | 20.0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.6 | |
| Nanos Research | July 21, 2017 | 39.0 | 30.3 | 18.4 | 4.2 | 6.2 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 8.7 | |
| Abacus Data | July 18, 2017 | HTML | 43 | 31 | 16 | 3 | 5 | ±2.2 pp | 2,036 | online | 12 |
| Nanos Research | July 14, 2017 | 38.3 | 31.2 | 16.2 | 5.9 | 6.1 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.1 | |
| Campaign Research | July 10, 2017 | HTML | 40 | 31 | 19 | 4 | 5 | ±2 pp | 1,540 | online | 9 |
| Nanos Research | July 7, 2017 | 39.8 | 33.0 | 13.6 | 5.3 | 6.4 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 6.8 | |
| Nanos Research | June 30, 2017 | 38.9 | 31.6 | 14.0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.3 | |
| Nanos Research | June 23, 2017 | 38.3 | 31.1 | 15.7 | 6.8 | 6.2 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.2 | |
| EKOS | June 19, 2017 | HTML | 35.3 | 33.0 | 15.2 | 3.7 | 8.5 | ±1.3 pp | 5,658 | IVR | 2.3 |
| Nanos Research | June 16, 2017 | 37.5 | 30.9 | 16.5 | 6.7 | 6.5 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 6.6 | |
| Campaign Research | June 12, 2017 | HTML | 39 | 30 | 19 | 5 | 7 | ±2 pp | 2,767 | online | 9 |
| Angus Reid | June 12, 2017 | 37 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 6 | ±2 pp | 5,406 | online | 3 | |
| Nanos Research | June 9, 2017 | 36.8 | 30.5 | 17.3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 6.3 | |
| Forum Research | June 8, 2017 | 42 | 34 | 12 | 5 | 6 | ±3 pp | 1,483 | IVR | 8 | |
| Nanos Research | June 2, 2017 | 40.0 | 28.1 | 16.5 | 6.2 | 7.3 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 11.9 | |
| Angus Reid | May 31, 2017 | HTML | 40 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 6 | ±2.2 pp | 1,958 | online | 7 |
| Mainstreet Research | May 29, 2017 | HTML | 41 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 5 | ±1.85 pp | 2,800 | IVR | 8 |
| Nanos Research | May 26, 2017 | 40.3 | 28.6 | 16.7 | 5.7 | 7.2 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 11.7 | |
| Nanos Research | May 19, 2017 | 42.1 | 27.9 | 16.2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 14.2 | |
| Léger | May 18, 2017 | 46 | 25 | 16 | 5 | 6 | ±2.5 pp | 1,529 | online | 21 | |
| Mainstreet Research | May 15, 2017 | HTML | 41 | 31 | 18 | 5 | 5 | ±1.85 pp | 2,800 | IVR | 10 |
| Campaign Research | May 13, 2017 | HTML | 43 | 27 | 19 | 3 | 7 | ±2 pp | 1,969 | online | 16 |
| Abacus Data | May 12, 2017 | 43 | 27 | 20 | 4 | 5 | ±2.9 pp | 1,182 | online | 16 | |
| Nanos Research | May 12, 2017 | 42.8 | 28.1 | 15.9 | 6.0 | 5.6 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 14.7 | |
| Nanos Research | May 5, 2017 | 41.8 | 29.0 | 18.8 | 5.1 | 4.1 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 12.8 | |
| Nanos Research | April 28, 2017 | 43.0 | 29.6 | 18.5 | 4.4 | 3.6 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 13.4 | |
| Forum Research | April 24, 2017 | 35 | 35 | 17 | 5 | 7 | ±3 pp | 1,479 | IVR | 0 | |
| Nanos Research | April 21, 2017 | 42.0 | 30.4 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 2.9 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 11.6 | |
| Nanos Research | April 14, 2017 | 41.4 | 32.4 | 18.7 | 3.4 | 3.1 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 9.0 | |
| Campaign Research | April 11, 2017 | HTML | 38 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 6 | ±2 pp | 1,970 | online | 9 |
| Nanos Research | April 7, 2017 | 40.3 | 32.6 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.7 | |
| Nanos Research | March 31, 2017 | 40.6 | 29.6 | 18.4 | 5.2 | 4.6 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 11.0 | |
| Ipsos | March 30, 2017 | 39 | 32 | 20 | 5 | 4 | ±3.5 pp | 1,001 | online | 7 | |
| Nanos Research | March 24, 2017 | 42.5 | 29.2 | 16.1 | 4.8 | 5.2 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 13.3 | |
| Forum Research | March 23, 2017 | 36 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 4 | ±3 pp | 1,029 | IVR | 2 | |
| Stratcom | March 17, 2017 | HTML | 44 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 6 | ±2.2 pp | 2,029 | online | 15 |
| Nanos Research | March 17, 2017 | 41.9 | 28.5 | 17.1 | 4.7 | 5.2 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 13.4 | |
| Nanos Research | March 10, 2017 | 41.4 | 28.1 | 17.0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 13.3 | |
| Campaign Research | March 7, 2017 | HTML | 43 | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | ±3 pp | 1,886 | online/IVR | 16 |
| Nanos Research | March 3, 2017 | 39.6 | 30.5 | 17.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 9.1 | |
| Forum Research | February 26, 2017 | 39 | 35 | 15 | 7 | 4 | ±3 pp | 1,340 | IVR | 4 | |
| Nanos Research | February 24, 2017 | 38.9 | 31.0 | 16.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.9 | |
| Abacus Data | February 19, 2017 | 40 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 6 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 7 | |
| Nanos Research | February 17, 2017 | 39.3 | 29.6 | 16.9 | 6.3 | 5.7 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 9.7 | |
| Nanos Research | February 10, 2017 | 37.9 | 32.9 | 16.9 | 4.8 | 5.3 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 5.0 | |
| Campaign Research | February 6, 2017 | HTML | 34 | 34 | 16 | 6 | 6 | ±3 pp | 1,457 | IVR | 0 |
| Nanos Research | February 3, 2017 | 38.0 | 32.5 | 16.4 | 4.9 | 5.9 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 5.5 | |
| Nanos Research | January 27, 2017 | 39.1 | 32.1 | 16.3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 7.0 | |
| Ipsos | January 25, 2017 | 41 | 30 | 19 | 5 | 5 | ±3.5 pp | 1,000 | online | 11 | |
| Forum Research | January 21, 2017 | 42 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 5 | ±3 pp | 1,332 | IVR | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | January 20, 2017 | 39.4 | 31.2 | 16.3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 8.2 | |
| Nanos Research | January 13, 2017 | 41.4 | 28.4 | 16.2 | 6.1 | 6.1 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 13.0 | |
| Nanos Research | January 6, 2017 | 43.0 | 28.5 | 16.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 14.5 | |
| Nanos Research | December 30, 2016 | 43.0 | 27.9 | 16.7 | 5.5 | 5.9 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 15.1 | |
| Nanos Research | December 23, 2016 | 42.0 | 28.3 | 16.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 13.7 | |
| Nanos Research | December 16, 2016 | 43.6 | 27.4 | 16.7 | 4.9 | 5.6 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 16.2 | |
| Abacus Data | December 14, 2016 | 44 | 30 | 16 | 4 | 5 | ±2.3 pp | 1,848 | online | 14 | |
| Nanos Research | December 9, 2016 | 43.2 | 26.7 | 16.5 | 5.4 | 6.0 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 16.5 | |
| Forum Research | December 7, 2016 | 42 | 34 | 12 | 5 | 6 | ±3 pp | 1,304 | IVR | 8 | |
| Nanos Research | December 2, 2016 | 42.9 | 26.0 | 17.4 | 4.8 | 6.8 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 16.9 | |
| Nanos Research | November 25, 2016 | 44.7 | 25.1 | 17.9 | 4.4 | 6.4 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 19.6 | |
| EKOS | November 22, 2016 | 41.2 | 31.2 | 13.0 | 2.4 | 8.2 | ±2.2 pp | 1,949 | IVR | 10.0 | |
| Nanos Research | November 18, 2016 | 42.9 | 28.7 | 16.0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 14.2 | |
| Abacus Data | November 13, 2016 | 46 | 25 | 17 | 5 | 7 | ±2.1 pp | 2,200 | online | 21 | |
| Nanos Research | November 11, 2016 | 46.3 | 26.2 | 15.4 | 4.3 | 6.2 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 20.1 | |
| Forum Research | November 10, 2016 | 51 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 5 | ±3 pp | 1,474 | IVR | 23 | |
| Mainstreet Research | November 6, 2016 | HTML | 49 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 5 | ±1.38 pp | 5,066 | IVR | 20 |
| Nanos Research | November 4, 2016 | 44.9 | 29.6 | 13.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 15.3 | |
| Nanos Research | October 28, 2016 | 44.5 | 29.6 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 14.9 | |
| Nanos Research | October 21, 2016 | 46.6 | 27.5 | 13.9 | 4.0 | 6.8 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 19.1 | |
| EKOS | October 18, 2016 | 46.6 | 26.4 | 14.1 | 3.3 | 7.8 | ±2.4 pp | 1,622 | online/telephone | 20.2 | |
| Nanos Research | October 14, 2016 | 46.3 | 26.2 | 15.4 | 4.3 | 6.2 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 20.1 | |
| Forum Research | October 12, 2016 | 49 | 30 | 12 | 5 | 4 | ±3 pp | 1,437 | IVR | 19 | |
| Abacus Data | October 12, 2016 | 45 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 6 | ±2.6 pp | 1,498 | online | 17 | |
| Nanos Research | October 7, 2016 | 45.9 | 25.9 | 16.2 | 4.3 | 5.7 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone (rolling) | 20.0 | |
| Nanos Research | September 30, 2016 | 45.8 | 26.2 | 16.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 | telephone (rolling) | 19.6 | |
| Forum Research | September 21, 2016 | 47 | 34 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ±3 pp | 1,326 | IVR | 13 | |
| Mainstreet Research | September 8, 2016 | HTML | 51 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 4 | ±1.35 pp | 5,250 | IVR | 22 |
| Forum Research | September 7, 2016 | 48 | 30 | 11 | 5 | 4 | ±3 pp | 1,370 | IVR | 18 | |
| Léger | September 1, 2016 | 53 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 5 | ±2.5 pp | 1,535 | online | 28 | |
| Abacus Data | August 25, 2016 | 46 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 5 | ±2.2 pp | 2,010 | online | 18 | |
| Forum Research | August 6, 2016 | 50 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 4 | ±3 pp | 1,345 | IVR | 19 | |
| EKOS | July 14, 2016 | 45.6 | 28.5 | 15.5 | 2.8 | 5.9 | ±3.1 pp | 1,003 | online/telephone | 17.1 | |
| Forum Research | July 5, 2016 | 52 | 28 | 11 | 5 | 3 | ±3 pp | 1,429 | IVR | 24 | |
| Abacus Data | June 16, 2016 | 44 | 28 | 16 | 5 | 6 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 16 | |
| Forum Research | June 7, 2016 | 49 | 32 | 10 | 4 | 4 | ±2 pp | 2,271 | IVR | 17 | |
| EKOS | June 7, 2016 | 44.7 | 26.9 | 12.4 | 4.1 | 7.8 | ±2.0 pp | 2,371 | IVR | 17.8 | |
| Ipsos | May 24, 2016 | HTML | 46 | 30 | 15 | 4 | 5 | ±3.5 pp | 1,002 | online | 16 |
| Abacus Data | May 20, 2016 | 46 | 27 | 15 | 4 | 7 | ±2.2 pp | 2,000 | online | 19 | |
| Forum Research | May 11, 2016 | 52 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 3 | ±3 pp | 1,517 | IVR | 23 | |
| Mainstreet Research | April 27, 2016 | HTML | 49 | 30 | 14 | 3 | 4 | ±1.39 pp | 4,998 | IVR | 19 |
| Nanos Research | April 22, 2016 | HTML | 43.2 | 25.8 | 19.3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 | telephone | 17.4 |
| Mainstreet Research | April 15, 2016 | HTML | 48 | 30 | 14 | 3 | 5 | ±1.38 pp | 5,012 | IVR | 18 |
| EKOS | April 15, 2016 | 44.1 | 28.5 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | ±2.9 pp | 1,176 | IVR | 15.6 | |
| Abacus Data | April 13, 2016 | 49 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 5 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 23 | |
| Forum Research | April 5, 2016 | 51 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 3 | ±3 pp | 1,455 | IVR | 23 | |
| Innovative Research | March 30, 2016 | 46 | 30 | 12 | 5 | 6 | n/a | 2,456 | online | 16 | |
| EKOS | March 29, 2016 | 42.1 | 31.7 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 6.4 | ±2.2 pp | 2,019 | IVR | 10.4 | |
| Abacus Data | March 23, 2016 | 47 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 6 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 19 | |
| Abacus Data | March 18, 2016 | 44 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 6 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 15 | |
| Forum Research | March 15, 2016 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 3 | ±2 pp | 1,567 | IVR | 12 | |
| Forum Research | February 17, 2016 | 49 | 32 | 10 | 3 | 5 | ±3 pp | 1,406 | IVR | 17 | |
| Léger | February 4, 2016 | 49 | 27 | 15 | 3 | 5 | ±2.1 pp | 1,524 | online | 22 | |
| EKOS | January 18, 2016 | 46.7 | 25.3 | 15.9 | 3.9 | 7.0 | ±1.9 pp | 2,598 | online/telephone | 21.4 | |
| Mainstreet Research | January 15, 2016 | HTML | 44 | 32 | 16 | 3 | 5 | ±1.39 pp | 4,937 | IVR | 12 |
| Abacus Data | January 12, 2016 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 5 | 5 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 17 | |
| EKOS | December 10, 2015 | 46.3 | 27.2 | 15.3 | 3.4 | 6.7 | ±2.2 pp | 1,956 | online/telephone | 19.1 | |
| Forum Research | December 8, 2015 | 46 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 4 | ±3 pp | 1,369 | IVR | 14 | |
| Abacus Data | November 25, 2015 | 49 | 24 | 16 | 5 | 5 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 25 | |
| Forum Research | November 17, 2015 | 45 | 37 | 10 | 4 | 3 | ±3 pp | 909 | IVR | 8 | |
| Forum Research | November 7, 2015 | 55 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 3 | ±3 pp | 1,256 | IVR | 30 | |
| 2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 39.5 | 31.9 | 19.7 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 7.6 | |||
Notes
- 1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
- 2 Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
- 3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
- LV Identifies polling firms that explicitly apply a "likely voter" turnout adjustment to their top-line results.
Leadership polls
Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister:
With Beaulieu
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | Justin Trudeau | Andrew Scheer | Jagmeet Singh | Mario Beaulieu | Elizabeth May | Margin of error[1] |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Innovative Research | October 1, 2018 | 47 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 8 | n/a | 18 | |
| Nanos Research | September 28, 2018 | 41.4 | 24.7 | 7.8 | 0.5 | 5.5 | ±3.1 pp | 16.7 | |
| Nanos Research | September 21, 2018 | 43.1 | 25.0 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 5.6 | ±3.1 pp | 18.1 | |
| Pollara | September 20, 2018 | HTML | 39 | 27 | 8 | — | 5 | ±3.1 pp | 12 |
| Campaign Research | September 14, 2018 | HTML | 32 | 22 | 5 | 5 | ±2.5 pp | 10 | |
| Nanos Research | August 31, 2018 | 42.2 | 24.3 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 6.4 | ±3.1 pp | 17.9 | |
| Nanos Research | August 24, 2018 | 40.1 | 25.4 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 5.2 | ±3.1 pp | 14.7 | |
| Nanos Research | August 17, 2018 | 39.6 | 25.2 | 8.2 | 1.2 | 4.6 | ±3.1 pp | 14.4 | |
With Singh
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | Justin Trudeau | Andrew Scheer | Jagmeet Singh | Martine Ouellet | Elizabeth May | Margin of error[1] |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | July 27, 2018 | 40.4 | 24.5 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 5.8 | ±3.1 pp | 15.9 | |
| Nanos Research | July 20, 2018 | 40.5 | 25.2 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 5.9 | ±3.1 pp | 15.3 | |
| Nanos Research | July 6, 2018 | 42.6 | 24.4 | 7.1 | 0.9 | 6.0 | ±3.1 pp | 18.2 | |
| Nanos Research | June 22, 2018 | 41.3 | 24.8 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 4.9 | ±3.1 pp | 16.5 | |
| Nanos Research | June 15, 2018 | 38.7 | 25.4 | 8.8 | 0.8 | 4.3 | ±3.1 pp | 13.3 | |
| Angus Reid | June 14, 2018 | 35 | 22 | 7 | – | 6 | ±3.1 pp | 13 | |
| Nanos Research | June 1, 2018 | 34.3 | 25.6 | 10.0 | 1.2 | 5.7 | ±3.1 pp | 8.7 | |
| Nanos Research | May 25, 2018 | 36.0 | 25.2 | 9.3 | 1.3 | 6.4 | ±3.1 pp | 10.8 | |
| Nanos Research | May 18, 2018 | 39.2 | 22.4 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 6.8 | ±3.1 pp | 16.8 | |
| Nanos Research | May 11, 2018 | 39.6 | 20.9 | 8.1 | 0.9 | 7.7 | ±3.1 pp | 18.7 | |
| Forum Research | April 20, 2018 | 24 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 12 | ±2 pp | 1 | |
| Nanos Research | March 23, 2018 | 38.5 | 26.5 | 8.9 | 1.9 | 4.9 | ±3.1 pp | 12.0 | |
| Nanos Research | March 16, 2018 | 37.5 | 25.9 | 9.0 | 2.4 | 5.7 | ±3.1 pp | 11.6 | |
| Angus Reid | March 15, 2018 | 26 | 22 | 7 | – | – | ±2 pp | 4 | |
| Nanos Research | March 9, 2018 | 39.2 | 23.2 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 5.9 | ±3.1 pp | 16.0 | |
| Nanos Research | March 2, 2018 | 40.4 | 22.8 | 8.6 | 1.8 | 6.6 | ±3.1 pp | 17.6 | |
| Nanos Research | February 23, 2018 | 40.4 | 22.1 | 9.5 | 1.9 | 5.6 | ±3.1 pp | 18.3 | |
| Nanos Research | February 16, 2018 | 41.0 | 21.9 | 9.3 | 1.5 | 5.4 | ±3.1 pp | 20.1 | |
| Campaign Research | February 10, 2018 | HTML | 35 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 5 | ±2.1 pp | 20 |
| Nanos Research | January 26, 2018 | 40.8 | 22.1 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 5.8 | ±3.1 pp | 18.7 | |
| Nanos Research | January 12, 2018 | 42.7 | 22.3 | 8.1 | 1.8 | 5.2 | ±3.1 pp | 20.4 | |
| Nanos Research | January 5, 2018 | 45.6 | 20.3 | 9.0 | 1.4 | 4.1 | ±3.1 pp | 25.3 | |
| Nanos Research | December 29, 2017 | 46.9 | 21.5 | 9.1 | 1.0 | 3.9 | ±3.1 pp | 25.4 | |
| Nanos Research | December 22, 2017 | 48.3 | 22.0 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 4.5 | ±3.1 pp | 26.3 | |
| Nanos Research | December 15, 2017 | 46.8 | 21.9 | 8.2 | 1.0 | 5.9 | ±3.1 pp | 24.9 | |
| Forum Research | December 14, 2017 | 30 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 10 | ±3.1 pp | 9 | |
| Nanos Research | December 8, 2017 | 45.4 | 23.5 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 6.4 | ±3.1 pp | 21.9 | |
| Nanos Research | December 1, 2017 | 45.6 | 22.8 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 6.1 | ±3.1 pp | 22.8 | |
| Nanos Research | November 24, 2017 | 44.1 | 22.8 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 5.3 | ±3.1 pp | 21.3 | |
| Nanos Research | November 17, 2017 | 44.8 | 22.4 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 4.8 | ±3.1 pp | 22.4 | |
| Nanos Research | November 10, 2017 | 45.0 | 21.1 | 8.8 | 1.4 | 5.2 | ±3.1 pp | 23.9 | |
| Campaign Research | November 9, 2017 | 35 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 5 | ±2.2 pp | 20 | |
| Nanos Research | November 3, 2017 | 43.8 | 21.0 | 8.5 | 1.9 | 5.4 | ±3.1 pp | 22.8 | |
| Nanos Research | October 27, 2017 | 44.3 | 20.8 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 5.5 | ±3.1 pp | 23.5 | |
| Campaign Research | October 11, 2017 | 36 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 5 | ±2.2 pp | 22 | |
With Singh and Mulcair
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | Justin Trudeau | Andrew Scheer | Jagmeet Singh/ Thomas Mulcair |
Martine Ouellet | Elizabeth May | Margin of error[1] |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | October 20, 2017 | 42.2 | 22.4 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 5.2 | ±3.1 pp | 19.8 | |
| Nanos Research | October 13, 2017 | 41.9 | 22.5 | 8.7 | 1.6 | 5.3 | ±3.1 pp | 19.4 | |
| Nanos Research | October 6, 2017 | 43.9 | 21.7 | 9.3 | 1.2 | 4.0 | ±3.1 pp | 22.2 | |
With Scheer
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | Justin Trudeau | Andrew Scheer | Thomas Mulcair | Martine Ouellet | Elizabeth May | Margin of error[1] |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | September 29, 2017 | 43.9 | 20.3 | 9.7 | 1.3 | 4.0 | ±3.1 pp | 23.6 | |
| Nanos Research | September 22, 2017 | 45.3 | 21.2 | 9.4 | 1.5 | 4.3 | ±3.1 pp | 24.1 | |
| Nanos Research | September 15, 2017 | 46.3 | 19.7 | 10.1 | 1.5 | 4.1 | ±3.1 pp | 26.6 | |
| Forum Research | September 14, 2017 | 34 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 5 | ±3 pp | 14 | |
| Campaign Research | September 11, 2017 | HTML | 42 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 6 | ±2.3 pp | 29 |
| Nanos Research | September 8, 2017 | 47.8 | 19.7 | 9.7 | 1.3 | 3.7 | ±3.1 pp | 28.1 | |
| Nanos Research | September 1, 2017 | 46.2 | 21.7 | 9.8 | 1.6 | 4.0 | ±3.1 pp | 24.5 | |
| Nanos Research | August 25, 2017 | 48.0 | 20.4 | 9.0 | 1.3 | 4.3 | ±3.1 pp | 27.6 | |
| Nanos Research | August 18, 2017 | 47.5 | 21.6 | 8.4 | 1.1 | 4.4 | ±3.1 pp | 25.9 | |
| Forum Research | August 17, 2017 | 39 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 8 | ±3 pp | 21 | |
| Nanos Research | August 11, 2017 | 47.1 | 21.3 | 9.2 | 1.4 | 4.9 | ±3.1 pp | 25.8 | |
| Nanos Research | August 4, 2017 | 46.1 | 21.8 | 9.8 | 1.7 | 5.1 | ±3.1 pp | 24.3 | |
| Nanos Research | July 28, 2017 | 44.0 | 21.5 | 9.7 | 1.6 | 6.0 | ±3.1 pp | 22.5 | |
| Nanos Research | July 21, 2017 | 45.4 | 20.8 | 10.1 | 1.4 | 5.5 | ±3.1 pp | 24.6 | |
| Nanos Research | July 14, 2017 | 43.9 | 21.9 | 9.8 | 1.4 | 5.5 | ±3.1 pp | 22.0 | |
| Campaign Research | July 10, 2017 | HTML | 38 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 4 | ±2 pp | 21 |
| Nanos Research | July 7, 2017 | 45.6 | 21.4 | 8.1 | 0.7 | 5.4 | ±3.1 pp | 24.2 | |
| Nanos Research | June 30, 2017 | 46.9 | 21.5 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 4.0 | ±3.1 pp | 25.4 | |
| Nanos Research | June 23, 2017 | 46.3 | 21.2 | 8.4 | 1.0 | 4.5 | ±3.1 pp | 25.1 | |
| Angus Reid | June 12, 2017 | HTML | 37 | 19 | 10 | ±2 pp | 18 | ||
| Forum Research | June 8, 2017 | 39 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | ±3 pp | 19 | |
With Scheer and Ambrose
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | Justin Trudeau | Rona Ambrose/ Andrew Scheer |
Thomas Mulcair | Martine Ouellet | Elizabeth May | Margin of error[1] |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | June 16, 2017 | 45.8 | 19.8 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 5.3 | ±3.1 pp | 26.0 | |
| Nanos Research | June 9, 2017 | 43.6 | 19.2 | 9.1 | 1.3 | 5.3 | ±3.1 pp | 24.4 | |
| Nanos Research | June 2, 2017 | 45.9 | 18.5 | 8.9 | 1.5 | 5.1 | ±3.1 pp | 27.4 | |
With Ouellet
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | Justin Trudeau | Rona Ambrose | Thomas Mulcair | Martine Ouellet | Elizabeth May | Margin of error[1] |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | May 26, 2017 | 45.7 | 18.4 | 9.1 | 0.2 | 4.9 | ±3.1 pp | 27.3 | |
| Nanos Research | May 19, 2017 | 46.3 | 18.4 | 9.2 | 1.9 | 5.2 | ±3.1 pp | 27.9 | |
| Nanos Research | May 12, 2017 | 47.8 | 19.4 | 10.3 | 2.0 | 5.4 | ±3.1 pp | 28.4 | |
| Nanos Research | May 5, 2017 | 46.9 | 18.7 | 10.7 | 2.0 | 5.4 | ±3.1 pp | 28.2 | |
| Nanos Research | April 28, 2017 | 48.2 | 18.4 | 9.4 | 1.6 | 5.4 | ±3.1 pp | 29.8 | |
| Forum Research | April 24, 2017 | 32 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 8 | ±3 pp | 20 | |
| Nanos Research | April 21, 2017 | 47.8 | 18.6 | 9.2 | 0.2 | 5.1 | ±3.1 pp | 29.2 | |
| Nanos Research | April 13, 2017 | 46.5 | 19.4 | 8.7 | 1.7 | 5.3 | ±3.1 pp | 27.1 | |
With Ouellet and Fortin
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | Justin Trudeau | Rona Ambrose | Thomas Mulcair | Rhéal Fortin/ Martine Ouellet |
Elizabeth May | Margin of error[1] |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | April 7, 2017 | 47.0 | 19.3 | 10.5 | 1.3 | 4.6 | ±3.1 pp | 27.7 | |
| Nanos Research | March 31, 2017 | 47.2 | 18.1 | 11.6 | 1.5 | 4.9 | ±3.1 pp | 29.1 | |
| Nanos Research | March 24, 2017 | 48.7 | 18.1 | 10.7 | 0.9 | 5.0 | ±3.1 pp | 30.6 | |
With Ambrose
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | Justin Trudeau | Rona Ambrose | Thomas Mulcair | Rhéal Fortin | Elizabeth May | Margin of error[1] |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | March 17, 2017 | 49.7 | 17.3 | 10.6 | 0.8 | 4.3 | ±3.1 pp | 32.4 | |
| Nanos Research | March 10, 2017 | 48.7 | 17.0 | 10.8 | 0.8 | 4.9 | ±3.1 pp | 31.7 | |
| Nanos Research | March 3, 2017 | 47.0 | 17.4 | 10.2 | 0.9 | 5.2 | ±3.1 pp | 29.6 | |
| Nanos Research | February 24, 2017 | 46.3 | 18.3 | 9.9 | 0.9 | 4.9 | ±3.1 pp | 28.0 | |
| Nanos Research | February 17, 2017 | 46.1 | 17.3 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 4.9 | ±3.1 pp | 28.8 | |
| Nanos Research | February 10, 2017 | 46.4 | 19.1 | 9.6 | 1.0 | 4.9 | ±3.1 pp | 27.3 | |
| Campaign Research | February 6, 2017 | HTML | 31 | 14 | 11 | ±3 pp | 17 | ||
| Nanos Research | February 3, 2017 | 45.4 | 20.0 | 10.2 | 1.2 | 5.5 | ±3.1 pp | 25.4 | |
| Nanos Research | January 27, 2017 | 46.7 | 19.9 | 10.7 | 1.1 | 4.7 | ±3.1 pp | 26.8 | |
| Forum Research | January 21, 2017 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 6 | ±3 pp | 27 | |
| Nanos Research | January 20, 2017 | 46.6 | 20.3 | 10.2 | 0.9 | 5.1 | ±3.1 pp | 26.3 | |
| Nanos Research | January 13, 2017 | 46.7 | 18.8 | 11.1 | 0.8 | 5.1 | ±3.1 pp | 27.9 | |
| Nanos Research | January 6, 2017 | 49.3 | 18.1 | 10.0 | 0.5 | 4.0 | ±3.1 pp | 31.2 | |
| Nanos Research | December 30, 2016 | 49.0 | 17.7 | 9.6 | 0.8 | 4.7 | ±3.1 pp | 31.3 | |
| Nanos Research | December 23, 2016 | 50.6 | 17.1 | 8.8 | 0.9 | 4.6 | ±3.1 pp | 33.5 | |
| Nanos Research | December 9, 2016 | 54.1 | 15.8 | 7.4 | 1.0 | 5.4 | ±3.1 pp | 38.3 | |
| Nanos Research | December 2, 2016 | 54.0 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 1.1 | 5.3 | ±3.1 pp | 38.5 | |
| Forum Research | December 7, 2016 | 40 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 6 | ±3 pp | 26 | |
| Nanos Research | November 25, 2016 | 54.2 | 15.7 | 8.7 | 0.7 | 5.5 | ±3.1 pp | 38.5 | |
| Nanos Research | November 18, 2016 | 52.2 | 17.1 | 8.3 | 0.5 | 5.3 | ±3.1 pp | 35.1 | |
| Nanos Research | November 11, 2016 | 50.3 | 16.7 | 8.7 | 0.7 | 5.5 | ±3.1 pp | 33.6 | |
| Nanos Research | November 4, 2016 | 49.5 | 16.2 | 8.3 | 0.5 | 5.6 | ±3.1 pp | 33.3 | |
| Nanos Research | October 28, 2016 | 49.6 | 16.0 | 8.2 | 0.5 | 5.7 | ±3.1 pp | 33.6 | |
| Nanos Research | October 21, 2016 | 50.4 | 14.6 | 8.4 | 0.6 | 6.1 | ±3.1 pp | 35.8 | |
| Nanos Research | October 14, 2016 | 52.2 | 14.7 | 8.6 | 0.7 | 5.4 | ±3.1 pp | 37.6 | |
| Nanos Research | October 7, 2016 | 55.9 | 14.5 | 7.7 | 0.6 | 4.5 | ±3.1 pp | 41.4 | |
| Nanos Research | September 30, 2016 | 56.0 | 14.1 | 7.4 | 0.6 | 4.4 | ±3.1 pp | 41.9 | |
| Nanos Research | September 23, 2016 | 55.9 | 15.0 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 3.8 | ±3.1 pp | 40.9 | |
| Forum Research | September 21, 2016 | 44 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 7 | ±3 pp | 31 | |
| Nanos Research | September 16, 2016 | 53.9 | 15.6 | 8.3 | 1.3 | 3.7 | ±3.1 pp | 38.3 | |
| Nanos Research | September 9, 2016 | 53.7 | 16.7 | 8.0 | 1.5 | 3.8 | ±3.1 pp | 37.0 | |
| Forum Research | September 7, 2016 | 46 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 7 | ±3 pp | 33 | |
| Nanos Research | September 2, 2016 | 54.1 | 16.5 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 3.6 | ±3.1 pp | 37.6 | |
| Nanos Research | August 26, 2016 | 54.4 | 16.7 | 9.3 | 1.5 | 3.6 | ±3.1 pp | 37.7 | |
| Nanos Research | August 19, 2016 | 56.3 | 16.3 | 9.0 | 1.2 | 3.3 | ±3.1 pp | 40.0 | |
| Nanos Research | August 12, 2016 | 55.6 | 14.5 | 9.2 | 1.3 | 4.3 | ±3.1 pp | 41.1 | |
| Forum Research | August 6, 2016 | 50 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 7 | ±3.0 pp | 38 | |
| Nanos Research | August 5, 2016 | 55.4 | 15.1 | 9.2 | 1.0 | 4.6 | ±3.1 pp | 40.3 | |
| Nanos Research | July 29, 2016 | 54.1 | 14.9 | 9.2 | 0.6 | 4.9 | ±3.1 pp | 39.2 | |
| Nanos Research | July 22, 2016 | 52.3 | 15.9 | 9.2 | 0.5 | 4.9 | ±3.1 pp | 36.4 | |
| Nanos Research | July 15, 2016 | 52.7 | 17.0 | 9.0 | 0.2 | 4.4 | ±3.1 pp | 35.7 | |
| Nanos Research | July 8, 2016 | 52.3 | 16.7 | 9.8 | 0.7 | 4.1 | ±3.1 pp | 35.6 | |
| Forum Research | July 5, 2016 | 49 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 7 | ±2 pp | 36 | |
| Nanos Research | June 30, 2016 | 52.5 | 17.6 | 8.5 | 1.3 | 4.9 | ±3.1 pp | 34.9 | |
| Nanos Research | June 24, 2016 | 53.4 | 15.9 | 8.8 | 1.5 | 5.2 | ±3.1 pp | 37.5 | |
| Nanos Research | June 17, 2016 | 53.6 | 15.1 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 5.0 | ±3.1 pp | 38.5 | |
| Nanos Research | June 10, 2016 | 52.6 | 15.8 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 5.0 | ±3.1 pp | 36.8 | |
| Forum Research | June 7, 2016 | 45 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 6 | ±2 pp | 34 | |
| Nanos Research | June 3, 2016 | 53.5 | 14.5 | 8.6 | 1.0 | 4.3 | ±3.1 pp | 39 | |
| Nanos Research | May 27, 2016 | 53.7 | 15.5 | 8.2 | 1.0 | 3.8 | ±3.1 pp | 38.2 | |
| Nanos Research | May 20, 2016 | 53.8 | 15.6 | 9.0 | 1.2 | 3.6 | ±3.1 pp | 38.2 | |
| Nanos Research | May 13, 2016 | 53.0 | 15.8 | 10.1 | 1.3 | 3.4 | ±3.1 pp | 37.2 | |
| Forum Research | May 11, 2016 | 47 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 6 | ±3 pp | 34 | |
| Nanos Research | May 6, 2016 | 51.9 | 15.3 | 10.3 | 1.2 | 5.3 | ±3.1 pp | 36.6 | |
| Nanos Research | April 29, 2016 | 51.6 | 15.2 | 10.7 | 0.8 | 5.8 | ±3.1 pp | 36.4 | |
| Nanos Research | April 22, 2016 | 50.4 | 16.7 | 10.6 | 0.7 | 5.8 | ±3.1 pp | 33.7 | |
| Nanos Research | April 15, 2016 | 51.1 | 16.6 | 9.7 | 0.5 | 6.0 | ±3.1 pp | 34.5 | |
| Nanos Research | April 8, 2016 | 52.3 | 16.9 | 10.6 | 0.5 | 4.2 | ±3.1 pp | 35.4 | |
| Forum Research | April 5, 2016 | 47 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 7 | ±3 pp | 36 | |
| Nanos Research | April 1, 2016 | 51.3 | 17.5 | 11.6 | 0.8 | 3.3 | ±3.1 pp | 33.8 | |
| Innovative Research | March 30, 2016 | 60.0 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | n/a | 39.0 | |
| Nanos Research | March 24, 2016 | 51.4 | 17.0 | 11.6 | 1.1 | 3.9 | ±3.1 pp | 34.4 | |
| Nanos Research | March 18, 2016 | 52.8 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 0.6 | 4.4 | ±3.1 pp | 37.9 | |
| Forum Research | March 15, 2016 | 43 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 5 | ±2 pp | 30 | |
| Nanos Research | March 11, 2016 | 52.7 | 14.6 | 12.8 | 0.7 | 4.7 | ±3.1 pp | 38.1 | |
| Nanos Research | March 4, 2016 | 53.7 | 14.2 | 11.3 | 0.9 | 5.3 | ±3.1 pp | 39.5 | |
| Nanos Research | February 26, 2016 | 53.5 | 13.9 | 10.9 | 0.9 | 5.0 | ±3.1 pp | 39.6 | |
| Nanos Research | February 19, 2016 | 51.4 | 14.9 | 11.4 | 1.0 | 4.8 | ±3.1 pp | 36.5 | |
| Forum Research | February 17, 2016 | 47 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 7 | ±3 pp | 35 | |
| Nanos Research | February 12, 2016 | 51.4 | 15.1 | 10.7 | 1.0 | 4.4 | ±3.1 pp | 36.3 | |
| Leger | February 9, 2016 | 40 | 9 | 10 | 4 | ±2.1 pp | 30 | ||
| Nanos Research | February 5, 2016 | 51.0 | 14.8 | 12.2 | 0.9 | 4.1 | ±3.1 pp | 36.2 | |
| Nanos Research | January 29, 2016 | 50.0 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 0.7 | 4.4 | ±3.1 pp | 35.1 | |
| Nanos Research | January 22, 2016 | 52.2 | 14.6 | 11.5 | 0.9 | 3.5 | ±3.1 pp | 37.6 | |
| Nanos Research | January 15, 2016 | 53.5 | 13.7 | 10.6 | 1.0 | 4.5 | ±3.1 pp | 39.8 | |
| Nanos Research | January 8, 2016 | 53.2 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 1.1 | 4.2 | ±3.1 pp | 40.0 | |
| Nanos Research | January 2, 2016 | 52.6 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 1.2 | 4.8 | ±3.1 pp | 40.5 | |
| Nanos Research | December 25, 2015 | 53.1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 1.2 | 5.1 | ±3.1 pp | 40.4 | |
| Nanos Research | December 18, 2015 | 50.2 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 1.3 | 5.1 | ±3.1 pp | 37.2 | |
| Nanos Research | December 11, 2015 | 51.5 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 1.2 | 5.0 | ±3.1 pp | 37.8 | |
| Nanos Research | December 4, 2015 | 53.7 | 13.7 | 12.0 | 1.4 | 4.2 | ±3.1 pp | 40.0 | |
With Ambrose and Harper
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | Justin Trudeau | Stephen Harper/ Rona Ambrose |
Thomas Mulcair | Rhéal Fortin | Elizabeth May | Margin of error[1] |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | November 27, 2015 | 50.9 | 16.3 | 12.3 | 1.6 | 4.8 | ±3.1 pp | 34.6 | |
| Nanos Research | November 20, 2015 | 53.3 | 17.2 | 11.6 | 1.2 | 4.6 | ±3.1 pp | 36.1 | |
| Nanos Research | November 13, 2015 | 50.9 | 18.4 | 13.0 | 1.3 | 5.0 | ±3.1 pp | 32.5 |
See also
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