Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election

Various organisations have commissioned opinion polls for the next New Zealand general election to be conducted during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament (2017-present). Two main polling organisations regularly sample the electorate's opinions: MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub Reid Research) and Television New Zealand (1 News Colmar Brunton). The last Roy Morgan Research poll was released in November 2017. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date. The current Parliament was elected on Saturday, 23 September 2017. The next general election will take place no later than Saturday, 21 November 2020.

Party vote and key events

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Graphical summary

Summary of polls currently being conducted for the next New Zealand general election with a 2-point moving trend line.
  National
  Labour
  NZ First
  Green
  ACT
  TOP
  Māori

Individual polls

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT TOP MRI Lead
2 Aug 2018Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,0074542561.10.40.93
21 Jun 2018Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth to a girl. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1,000[1]45.142.62.45.70.21.60.92.5
19–23 May 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,00745434.250.70.50.92
17 May 2018The 2018 Budget is delivered
7–11 Apr 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,0074443560.30.41.21
8 Apr 2018Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party[2]
27 Feb 2018Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party[3]
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,00743482.650.50.60.75
13 Feb 2018Bill English announces he will stand down as National leader and resign from Parliament[4]
18–28 Jan 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1,00044.542.33.860.21.40.82.2
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,0074639570.11.20.97
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 Roy Morgan Research 88740.539.55100.521.51
26 Oct 2017Jacinda Ardern is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand[5]
2–15 Oct 2017 Roy Morgan Research 89446316.5110.521.515
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result[6] N/A44.436.97.26.30.52.41.27.6

Preferred Prime Minister

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as Prime Minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.

Individual polls

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size Jacinda Ardern Simon Bridges Winston Peters James Shaw Bill English Lead
2 Aug 2018Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007401050.30.930
21 Jun 2018Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth to a girl. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1,000[1]40.294.6–4.231.2
19–23 May 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007411240.20.929
7–11 Apr 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,00737105–227
8 Apr 2018Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party[2]
27 Feb 2018Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party[3]
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,00741140.42021
18–28 Jan 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1,000[1]37.90.55.70.125.712.2
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007370.350.4289

Government direction

Individual polls

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size Right direction Wrong direction Don't know Lead
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,00751262325
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 Roy Morgan Research 88766.52013.546.5
24 Oct – 1 Nov 2017 Horizon Research 1,06849242821
2–15 Oct 2017 Roy Morgan Research 89458.527.51431

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no changes to electorate seats each party holds (ACT retains Epsom, Labour retains Waiariki, etc.) unless there is a specific reason to assume change. For example, after Peter Dunne announced his retirement, projections stopped assuming United Future would retain Ōhāriu. Other parties that do not pass the 5% threshold are assumed to not to win an electorate and therefore gain no seats.

Radio New Zealand takes a "poll of polls" average to produce their forecast. The New Zealand Herald bases theirs on a predictive model incorporating poll data as well as past election results and past poll accuracy.[7] Newshub and 1 News and produce projections based on their own polls only.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority. This happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but they formed a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.

Party 2017 election result Roy Morgan[8]
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 poll		 1 News Colmar Brunton[9]
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 poll		 Radio NZ[10]
5 Jun 2018 poll of polls		 Newshub Reid Research[11]
17 – 24 May 2018 poll
National5651555758
Labour4649515455
NZ First96600
Green813788
ACT11111*
Seats in Parliament 120120120120122
Overall result (majority) National–NZ First (65) Labour–Green (62) Labour–Green–NZ First (64) Labour–Green (62) Labour–Green (63)
Labour–Green–NZ First (63)
Note: Forecasted seats are currently calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
* indicates an overhang seat

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. 1 2 75% of respondents were polled before Bill English announced his resignation.

References

  1. 1 2 3 Reid Research. "TV3 POLL RESULTS". Reid Research. Retrieved 27 May 2018.
  2. 1 2 Newshub (8 April 2018). "Marama Davidson elected new Greens co-leader". Newshub. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
  3. 1 2 NZ Herald (27 February 2018). "Simon Bridges is National Party's new leader, Paula Bennett remains deputy". NZ Herald. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
  4. ↑ Newshub (13 February 2018). "Former PM Bill English resigns as National Party leader". Newshub. Retrieved 13 February 2018.
  5. ↑ Hurley, Emma (26 October 2017). "As it happened: Jacinda Ardern sworn in as Prime Minister". Newshub. Retrieved 27 October 2017.
  6. ↑ "Official Count Results – Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2017. Retrieved 24 October 2017.
  7. ↑ "Herald election forecasts explained". NZ Herald.
  8. ↑ http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7419-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-november-2017-201711220740
  9. ↑ https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/simon-bridges-still-struggling-cut-through-voters-latest-1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-shows 1 News Colmar Brunton
  10. ↑ https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/358890/no-budget-lift-for-labour-in-polls-but-support-for-pm-still-strong
  11. ↑ http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2018/05/simon-bridges-failing-to-connect-with-voters-newshub-poll.html
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