Opinion polling for the Turkish general election, June 2015

In the leadup to the June 2015 general election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The results tend to vary widely, as described in opinion polls in Turkey.

Election poll results

Graphical summary

Opinion polling for the 2015 general election

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. (Note that, pre 2015 results only indicate the last date of the survey's fieldwork, and not the whole interval.) If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. For the highest percentage figure in each polling survey, the background is shaded in the leading party's colour. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

2015

  Light red denotes polls that were released after the polling ban came into effect, thereby violating Turkish electoral law.
DatePollsterSampleAKPCHPMHPHDPANAPAROthersLead
7 JunElection results
Domestic vote only		–40.725.116.513.00.14.615.6
2 JunGezici[1][2]4,86038.528.516.512.5–3.010.0
30 May – 1 JunORC[3]3,85046.025.315.59.0–4.220.7
30 – 31 MayKonda[4]3,54341.027.814.812.6–3.813.2
28 May
A pre-election ban on opinion polling comes into effect, ten days before polling day[5]
27 MayANAR[6]–40.526.017.011.0–5.514.5
27 MayAksoy[7]–42.626.216.210.6–4.216.4
18 – 26 MayMAK[8]2,15543.624.916.49.9–5.218.7
25 MaySONAR[9]3,00041.026.018.110.4–4.515.0
23 – 24 MayGezici[10]4,86039.328.517.212.4–2.610.8
21 – 24 MayAndy-Ar[11]4,16641.925.816.010.7–5.616.1
18 – 24 MayKamuAR[12]5,22335.327.923.17.7–6.07.4
16 – 24 MayDenge[13]11,85944.625.516.110.5–3.319.1
17 – 23 MayPolitics[14]4,20045.226.315.49.6–3.518.9
11 – 22 MaySAMER[15]4,15043.327.115.311.3–3.016.2
15 – 21 MayVera[16]1,50943.527.116.09.6–3.916.4
21 MayKonda[17]–40.528.714.411.5–4.911.8
15 – 20 MayAKAM[18]2,16438.928.117.611.8–3.610.8
8 – 11 MayMetroPoll[19]2,97642.827.017.19.2–3.915.8
9 – 10 MayGezici[20][21]4,86038.230.117.110.5–4.18.1
6 – 7 MayCHP[22]1,61839.328.117.810.3–4.611.2
4 – 7 MayORC[23]2,45047.523.915.08.1–5.523.6
3 – 7 MayDenge[24]5,07345.625.515.19.5–4.320.1
2 – 7 MayBenenson SG[25]–39.031.614.710.5–4.27.4
30 Apr–7 MayKonsensus[26]1,50043.926.715.89.7–3.917.2
1 – 5 MayAKAM[27]2,26238.327.318.111.8–4.511.0
3 May
The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) announces their manifesto
24 – 27 AprAKAM[28]3,21438.128.117.812.6–3.410.0
20 – 27 AprKamuAR[29]4,38236.226.722.46.7–8.09.5
20 – 26 AprGezici[30]4,86038.128.518.011.0–4.49.6
18 – 25 AprSONAR[31]3,08643.026.117.29.6–4.116.9
18 – 25 AprMAK[32][33]5,40045.1524.7915.259.15–5.6620.36
21 Apr
The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) announces their manifesto
18 – 21 AprMetroPoll[34]2,82442.526.417.610.2–3.316.1
19 Apr
The Republican People's Party (CHP) announces their manifesto
11–17 AprAKAM[33]5,16040.725.518.011.4–4.415.2
15 Apr
The Justice and Development Party (AKP) announces their manifesto
9–13 AprORC[35]4,20048.323.714.48.9–4.724.6
9–12 AprGezici[36]–39.228.116.911.3–4.611.1
12 AprMetroPoll[37]2,50041.727.717.410.4–2.814.0
4 AprAndy-Ar[38]–43.723.517.610.4–4.820.2
4 AprGENAR[38]–47.725.013.510.9–2.922.7
30 MarDenge[39]–47.026.014.68.8–3.621.0
18–24 MarORC[40]3,17850.323.014.18.6–4.027.3
16 MarMAK[41]5,00047.725.314.29.2–3.722.4
12–21 MarKamuAR[42]8,17335.627.221.87.2–8.28.4
7–8 MarGezici[43]4,86039.329.617.711.4–2.09.7
4–7 MarSONAR[44]3,00040.027.118.010.1–4.812.9
4–7 MarORC[45]3,16050.023.213.58.4–4.926.8
27 FebGENAR[46][47]5,20247.725.113.48.9–4.922.6
15 Feb
The Workers' Party (İP) is succeeded by the Patriotic Party (VP)
14–15 FebGezici[48][49][50]3,84039.128.718.19.50.14.510.7
11–14 FebMetropoll[51]2,69443.127.016.49.8–3.716.1
10–14 FebORC[52][53]4,65049.823.013.98.9–4.426.8
3–8 FebAndy-AR[54]2,26345.225.616.59.2–3.519.6
3–8 FebMAK[55]5,45447.624.814.38.0–5.322.8
JanKONDA[56][57]?45.423.315.110.6–5.622.1
26 Jan
MPs Ercan Cengiz and Birgül Ayman Güler both resign from the CHP, with Cengiz joining the Centre Party
19–23 JanPollmark[58]5,00049.423.515.08.0–4.125.9
17–20 JanMetropoll[59][60]2,75944.926.914.69.3–4.318.0
15–19 JanORC[61][62]1,72048.623.313.58.2–6.425.3
17–18 JanGezici[63]3,60039.829.617.37.30.45.610.2
12 JanSONAR[64]3,00038.127.817.68.23.94.410.3
5–10 JanMAK[65][66][67]5,40048.425.414.06.8–5.223.0
1–10 JanTÜSİAR[68]4,15351.422.614.28.0–3.828.8
DatePollsterSampleLead
AKPCHPMHPHDPANAPAROthers

2014

DatePollsterSampleAKPCHPMHPHDPANAPAROthersLead
DecKONDA[56]?47.525.014.98.0–4.622.5
24–31 DecANAR[69]5,19047.025.014.07.8–6.222.0
15–20 DecORC[70]3,86049.423.013.17.9–6.626.4
4–14 DecKHU[71][note 1]1,00047.126.216.010.2–0.620.9
14 DecKamuAR[72][73]4,17738.527.121.66.7–6.112.1
4–8 DecGENAR[74]5,11548.225.014.19.0–3.723.2
1–5 DecMAK[75][76]10,80050.025.115.04.5–5.424.9
1 Dec 2014ORC[76][77]3,10048.523.113.78.0–6.725.4
28 Nov 2014SONAR[78]3,02537.1727.0117.136.698.043.9610.16
14 Nov 2014
Ankara MP Emine Ülker Tarhan resigns from the CHP and establishes the Anatolia Party (ANAPAR)
3 Nov 2014MAK[79]10,80051.125.614.15.33.925.5
25 Oct 2014Gezici[80]5,29243.328.718.5––14.6
25 Oct 2014ORC[81]11,35347.324.613.58.36.323.7
24 Oct 2014Optimar[82]5,20050.624.714.56.83.425.9
23 Oct 2014Gezici[83]3,29241.427.419.78.13.414.0
22 Oct 2014MetroPoll[84]2,75247.526.715.78.31.820.8
20 Oct 2014Andy-Ar[85]2,03746.424.814.38.85.721.6
14 Oct 2014Pollmark[86]5,07150.424.413.18.04.126.0
23 Sep 2014Optimar[82]5,20050.624.714.56.83.425.9
20 Sep 2014
Ankara MP Emrehan Halıcı resigns from the CHP and establishes the Electronic Democracy Party (eP)
15 Sep 2014ANAR[87]5,20051.724.712.18.33.227.0
10 Sep 2014ORC[88]2,31247.424.315.09.53.823.1
28 Aug 2014
Ahmet Davutoğlu is elected AKP leader and becomes the 26th Prime Minister of Turkey
19 Aug 2014Andy-Ar[89]1,89745.624.316.89.04.321.3
14 Aug 2014MetroPoll[90]–44.126.016.0––18.1
13 Aug 2014ORC[91]2,75047.125.014.210.23.522.1
10 Aug 2014
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is elected President with 51.79% of the vote
22 Jul 2014TÜSİAR[92]4,12350.127.314.26.12.322.8
17 Jul 2014Andy-AR[93]3,21648.825.215.26.54.323.6
28 Apr 2014MAK[94]10,44050.123.014.06.56.527.1
30 May 2014Gezici[95]3,29244.527.518.68.11.317.0
6 May 2014ORC[96]5,10049.124.816.36.83.024.3
30 Mar 20142014 local elections–42.926.317.86.36.716.6
18 Mar 2014SONAR[97][98]15,94839.030.0–––9.0
17 Mar 2014AKP[99]–29.733.321.37.68.13.6
28 Feb 2014Gezici[100]5,29239.731.418.27.13.68.3
DatePollsterSampleLead
AKPCHPMHPHDPANAPAROthers

2013

DatePollsterSampleAKPCHPMHPHDPANAPAROthersLead
17 Dec 2013
A ₺100bn government corruption scandal occurs and Fethullah Gülen withdraws support from the AKP
22 Sep 2013Gezici[101]5,29242.527.318.19.52.615.2
1 Sep 2013ORC[102][103]3,10049.226.514.96.43.022.7
24 Jun 2013Konsensus[104]1,50047.130.914.64.62.816.2
30 May 2013
13 Apr 2013Gezici[105]2,64644.127.517.29.22.016.6
6 Apr 2013GENAR[106]3,00050.225.213.76.44.525.0
1 Jan 2013O&A[107]2,61444.630.215.85.34.114.4
DatePollsterSampleLead
AKPCHPMHPHDPANAPAROthers

2012

DatePollsterSampleAKPCHPMHPHDPANAPAROthersLead
30 Dec 2012ORC[108]–48.227.414.15.54.820.8
12 Dec 2012Konsensus[109]1,50150.727.712.86.42.423.0
24 Nov 2012Gezici[110][111]8,46045.926.117.17.93.019.8
15 Nov 2012SONAR[112]2,22047.325.215.27.15.222.1
12 Oct 2012GENAR[113]–51.226.512.47.32.624.7
6 Sep 2012Gezici[114][115]6,46046.326.417.7––25.6
27 Aug 2012Andy-Ar[116][117]3,25149.720.717.18.53.929.0
11 Jul 2012SDE[118]2,15549.025.914.16.34.723.1
30 May 2012ORC[119]5,00051.724.712.47.04.227.0
31 Apr 2012ORC[120]5,67054.719.315.86.53.735.4
13 Apr 2012GENAR[121]2,22051.325.713.25.14.725.6
30 Mar 2012ORC[122]5,00055.219.014.46.15.336.2
3 Mar 2012Konsensus[123]1,50551.727.713.35.61.724.0
DatePollsterSampleLead
AKPCHPMHPHDPANAPAROthers

2011

DatePollsterSampleAKPCHPMHPHDPANAPAROthersLead
19 Dec 2011SONAR[124][125]3,00054.819.516.16.23.335.3
18 Dec 2011Konsensus[126]1,50050.227.112.05.84.923.1
12 Jun 20112011 election–49.8325.9813.015.67[127]11.1823.85
DatePollsterSampleLead
AKPCHPMHPHDPANAPAROthers

Parliamentary seat predictions

DatePollsterSampleAKPCHPMHPHDPMajorityNotes
7 JuneElection results–
258 / 550
132 / 550
80 / 550
80 / 550
Hung
?Metropoll[128]–
260 / 550
142 / 550
81 / 550
67 / 550
HungPoll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla
2 – 3 JuneA&G Research[129]2,976
265 / 550
138 / 550
78 / 550
69 / 550
HungPoll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla
2 JuneGezici[1]4,860
242 / 550
151 / 550
85 / 550
72 / 550
HungPoll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla
2 JuneSONAR[130]–
257 / 550
134 / 550
100 / 550
59 / 550
HungPoll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla
30 – 31 MayKONDA[4]3,543
261 / 550
144 / 550
73 / 550
72 / 550
HungPoll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla
27 MayANAR[6]–
263 / 550
136 / 550
89 / 550
62 / 550
HungPoll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla
25 MaySONAR[9]3,000
257 / 550
134 / 550
100 / 550
59 / 550
HungPoll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla
23 – 24 MayGezici[10]4,860
257 / 550
134 / 550
86 / 550
70 / 550
HungPoll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla
21 – 24 MayAndy-Ar[11]4,166
271 / 550
136 / 550
83 / 550
60 / 550
HungPoll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla
21 MayKonda[131]–
260 / 550
149 / 550
71 / 550
70 / 550
HungPoll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla
9 – 10 MayGezici[132]1,500
236 / 550
163 / 550
92 / 550
59 / 550
HungPoll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla
6 – 7 MayCHP[22]1,618
232 / 550
151 / 550
104 / 550
63 / 550
Hung
30 Apr–7 MayKonsensus[133]1,500
277 / 550
138 / 550
75 / 550
60 / 550
4If the HDP surpasses the 10% threshold
331 / 550
142 / 550
77 / 550
0 / 550
112If the HDP falls below the 10% threshold
24–27 Apr 2015AKAM[134]3,124
238 / 550
142 / 550
100 / 550
68 / 550
Hung
11–17 Apr 2015AKAM[33][135]5,160
262 / 550
133 / 550
88 / 550
67 / 550
HungPredicts 2 independent MPs (Hakan Şükür and Cemal Kaya)
12 Apr 2015MetroPoll[136]2,500
261 / 550
141 / 550
90 / 550
58 / 550
Hung
24 Mar 2015ORC[137]3,176
375 / 550
125 / 550
50 / 550
0 / 550
200Two-thirds majority
11 Mar 2015SONAR[138][139]3,000
243 / 550
133 / 550
116 / 550
58 / 550
HungIf the HDP surpasses the 10% threshold
274 / 550
148 / 550
128 / 550
0 / 550
HungIf the HDP falls below the 10% threshold
8 Mar 2015Gezici[140]4,860
229 / 550
146 / 550
118 / 550
57 / 550
Hung
12 Jun 20112011 election–
327 / 550
135 / 550
53 / 550
35 / 550
104
DatePollsterSampleMajorityNotes
AKPCHPMHPBDP

Diaspora

Turkish expats living abroad will have the ability to vote for the first time in a Turkish general election. The following table shows the results of polls conducted in different countries amongst Turkish expat voters.

DateCountryPollsterSampleAKPCHPMHPHDPANAPAROthersLead
8–31 May 2015Overseas results[141]–50.415.99.121.40.13.129.0
18–26 May 2015 Germany
 France
 Netherlands
 Belgium
 Austria		MAK[8]1,381
294
240
130
110		58.514.08.512.0–7.044.5
4–12 April 2015 GermanyEthno-Forschung[142]3,00060.810.111.917.2–0.043.6
DateCountryPollsterSampleLead
AKPCHPMHPHDPANAPAROthers

Polling on other issues

A range of opinion polling regarding several contemporary issues which may affect voter choice has also been conducted by several organisations. The results of these are listed below. Please note that some opinion polls may offer different means of wording questions, or may offer different options.

Government corruption scandal

The following table shows opinion polling for whether the 17–25 December 2014 corruption scandal is seen to be a genuine corruption probe, or a plot against the government.

DatePollsterSampleCorruption investigationCoup plotBothDon't know
14 Dec 2014KHU[71]1,00038.435.6–1.3
21 Jan 2014MetroPoll[73][143]1,54542.224.024.98.9

New presidential palace

The following table lists opinions on the construction of a new presidential palace, which has raised controversy due to its size, cost, location and legality.

DatePollsterSampleApproveDisapproveDon't know
14 Dec 2014KHU[71]1,00037.548.014.5
14 Dec 2014KamuAR[72][73]4,17723.871.74.5
30 Nov 2014MetroPoll[144]2,78035.257.17.7

System of government

The AKP government support a presidential system of government as opposed to the current parliamentary system. Should they win above 330 seats in the next parliament, they have voiced intentions to place several proposed constitutional changes to a referendum, which may include the issue of which government system is used in Turkey. The following polls show the support for parliamentary, presidential and semi-presidential systems.

DatePollsterSampleParliamentaryPresidentialSemi-presidentialOther/Don't know
23 February 2015Gezici[145]3,48076.823.2––
3 February 2015A&G[146][147]–70.030.0––
14 Dec 2014KHU[71]1,00079.312.64.73.1
August 2014MetroPOLL[148]–42.234.3–23.5
May 2014MetroPOLL[148]–45.833.6–20.5
May 2014MetroPOLL[148]–45.833.6–20.5
August 2013MetroPOLL[148]–43.840.1–21.1
20 Jul 2013Bilgesam[149]2,57067.932.1––
June 2013MetroPOLL[148]–42.930.9–26.2
April 2013MetroPOLL[148]–39.835.2–25.0
11 Mar 2013Varyans[150]5,06856.527.611.44.5
December 2012MetroPOLL[148]–44.236.9–18.9
24 Nov 2012Gezici[110][111]8,46057.442.6––
15 Nov 2012SONAR[112]2,22052.526.8–20.7
June 2012MetroPOLL[148]–37.743.2–19.1
February 2011A&G[151]2,51656.316.00.826.9

Economy

The following table lists opinions on how well the government have managed the Turkish economy.

DatePollsterSampleApproveDisapproveDon't know
14 Dec 2014KHU[71]1,00030.044.425.6
30 Nov 2014MetroPoll[144]2,78040.254.45.5
31 Jul 2014Pew[152]1,00150.046.04.0
30 Mar 2012ORC[122]5,00071.628.4–

Syrian Civil War

Being one of the hardest hit countries in terms of refugees due to the Syrian Civil War, the Turkish government's policy on Syrian refugees has created controversy, especially in the Hatay Province on the Turkish-Syrian border. The following table shows opinion polling on the support of the government in terms of their policy on Syria.

DatePollsterSampleApproveDisapproveDon't know
14 Dec 2014KHU[71]1,00021.653.724.7
30 Nov 2014MetroPoll[144]2,78028.266.84.9
24 Nov 2012Gezici[110][111]8,46030.969.1–
6 Sep 2012Gezici[114][115]6,46036.064.0–
27 Aug 2012Andy-Ar[153]3,25118.367.114.6

Foreign policy

The following table shows opinion polling for the approval of the government's foreign policy.

DatePollsterSampleApproveDisapproveDon't know
14 Dec 2014KHU[71]1,00032.641.426.0
14 Jul 2014MetroPoll[154]2,26828.057.77.4
1 Sep 2013ORC[102][155]3,10059.230.210.4
30 Mar 2012ORC[122]5,00061.238.8–

PKK peace process

The government began a peace process with Kurdish separatist militants in 2013, with the PKK militant organisation beginning a withdrawal of insurgents as a result. However, numerous casualties despite the ceasefire as well as the unclear terms of the ceasefire have generated controversy. The following table shows opinion polling on the approval of the government's solution process.

DatePollsterSampleApproveDisapprovePartiallyDon't know
25 Dec 2014ORC[156]3,86059.540.5––
14 Dec 2014KHU[71]1,00025.047.727.3–
14 Dec 2014KamuAR[72][73]4,17729.651.713.94.8
30 Nov 2014MetroPoll[144]2,78029.161.4–9.6
6 Sep 2012Gezici[114][115]6,46040.759.3––

Judicial independence

Following the 2013 government corruption scandal and the subsequent crackdown by the government on the judiciary, the independence of the judiciary has been a key issue of concern for the political opposition and the European Union. The following table shows opinion polling on whether or not the judiciary is independent.

DatePollsterSampleIndependentNot independentDon't know
14 Dec 2014KHU[71]1,00024.258.717.1
14 Dec 2014KamuAR[72][73]4,17727.547.225.3
28 Feb 2014Gezici[100]5,29227.272.8–

Alevi rights

Alevi Muslims are the main religious minority in Turkey. The table below shows opinion polling on whether Alevi citizens should have greater rights, such as granting official status to their place of worship, the Cemevi.

DatePollsterSampleApproveDisapproveDon't know
14 Dec 2014KamuAR[72][73]4,17758.315.426.3

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and Kobanî

The following table shows the approval for the government's policy on tackling the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in Iraq and Syria. This particularly centres around the situation in the border town of Kobanî, where Turkish inaction caused deadly protests, as well as the government's permission for Kurdish Peshmerga forces to cross Turkish territory to fight in Kobanî.

DatePollsterSampleApproveDisapproveDon't know
14 Dec 2014KHU[71]1,00019.151.629.3
14 Dec 2014KamuAR[72][73]4,17724.052.923.1

Workers' rights

The following table shows opinion polling for whether workers' rights are sufficient. This issue rose to prominence after 301 miners were killed in Soma, Manisa after a mine collapsed. Subsequent deaths in the construction and mining sector have also caused debate on workers' rights in Turkey, which are rated amongst the worst in the world.

DatePollsterSampleSufficientInsufficientDon't know
14 Dec 2014KHU[71]1,00024.052.923.1
14 Dec 2014KamuAR[72][73]4,1777.289.03.8

Gezi protests

The following table shows opinion polling for the protests that took place in the summer of 2013 against the construction plan of a shopping mall in Taksim Gezi Park.

DatePollsterSampleApproveDisapproveDon't know
31 Jul 2014Pew[152]1,00149,040,011,0

Leadership approval ratings

The following tables show the approval ratings for key politicians in Turkey, most of whom will be seeking re-election in the 2015 general election. The tick icon indicates approval, the X icon indicates disapproval, while N/O indicates no opinion.

DatePollsterSample size
Apr 2015BSG[157]–
25 Dec 2014ORC[156]3,860
14 Dec 2014KHU[71]1,000
5 Dec 2014MAK[158]10,800
30 Nov 2014MetroPoll[144]2,780
25 Jun 2014Konsensus[159]1,500
23 Feb 2014Konsensus[160]1,504
12 Dec 2012Konsensus[109]1,501
11 Jul 2012SDE[118]2,155
  
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
N/O
42562
57.437.05.6
43.535.920.6
70.519.510.0
45.650.24.2
52427
44.247.58.3
46.943.99.2
52.541.36.2
  
Ahmet Davutoğlu
N/O
40582
50.544.25.3
33.842.224.0
48.521.530.0
43.349.67.1
–––
–––
–––
–––
  
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu
N/O
–––
–––
13.070.216.8
21.1––
18.976.84.2
23708
32.456.111.5
27.5––
29.563.07.5
  
Devlet Bahçeli
N/O
–––
–––
9.870.419.8
9.0––
15.879.54.6
236611
19.367.912.8
–––
–––
  
Selahattin Demirtaş
N/O
–––
–––
17.273.09.8
5.0––
11.882.16.0
13834
15.077.27.8
–––
–79.7–

See also

References

  1. 1 2 "Seçime 4 gün kala Gezici Araştırma Şirketi son anket sonuçlarını paylaştı!". Telgrafhane / Emeğin yanında, Aydınlanmanın izinde.
  2. ↑ "CHP'nin 7 Haziran kehaneti HDP uçuyor AKP ise..." Internethaber.
  3. ↑ http://www.orcarastirma.com.tr/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/GENEL-SEÇİM-ARAŞTIRMASI-HAZİRAN-2015.pdf
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  1. ↑ Poll identifies 10.6% of respondents as non-voters.
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