Next Serbian parliamentary election

Next Serbian parliamentary election
Serbia
No later than April 2020

Party Leader Current seats
SNS coalition Aleksandar Vučić 131
SPS–JS–ZS Ivica Dačić 28
SzS coalition Dragan Đilas 24
SRS Vojislav Šešelj 22
DJB Branislav Mihajlović 7
SDS–LDP–LSV Boris Tadić 13
VMSZ–VMDP István Pásztor 4
BDZ S Jahja Fehratović 2
SDA S Sulejman Ugljanin 2
DSS Miloš Jovanović 2
ZES Goran Čabradi 1
PDD Riza Halimi 1
This lists parties that currently hold seats.
Incumbent Prime Minister
Ana Brnabić
Independent

Parliamentary elections are due to be held in Serbia in April 2020,[1] although they may be held earlier if early elections are called.

Background

In the 2016 parliamentary elections, the ruling parties—the SNS-led coalition and the SPS-led coalition—were returned to power, and incumbent Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić was re-elected. However, in the 2017 presidential elections, Vučić was elected president, and left the government for his new position. Subsequently Ana Brnabić became Serbia's first female and first openly gay Prime Minister.

After the presidential election, Saša Janković, who ended up second with 16.3% of the vote, formed the centre-left Movement of Free Citizens (PSG) in May 2017.[2][3] In October 2017, Vuk Jeremić, who finished fourth with 5.6% of the vote, formed his own centre-right People's Party (NS), which cooperates closely with Saša Janković's PSG.[4][5]

The media had repeatedly mentioned the possibility of holding early parliamentary elections together with city council elections in Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, which are expected to be scheduled for March 2018. Vučić stated he is considering the possibility, justifying such decision by giving the government a fresh mandate to reach a wide social consensus regarding state position on Kosovo.[6][7]

Opposition parties remain disunited, and a united opposition list is highly unlikely for the upcoming election.[8]

In November 2017, SNS, the ruling party, held a meeting of the Main board which decided to go with Vučić's proposal not to call early elections. The decision is not final though, but for now, there will be no state level elections alongside Belgrade City council elections.[9]

As of June 2018, opposition parties are holding talks on forming an alliance, which became possible with election of new party leadership of Democratic Party, which is in favor of forming the alliance with Dragan Djilas, who was very successful in Belgrade local elections, as well as PSG and NS. It remains unclear whether this alliance of mostly pro-Western and pro-EU parties will include other opposition organizations, regardless of their stance on EU (most notably Dveri, an anti-EU party).[10] The opposition alliance is dubbed by the media and main participants in its formation as Alliance for Serbia (Serbian: Savez sa Srbiju - SZS).

In Serbia, early elections are held regularly, and only three governments stayed in power for the entire 4 year term since multi party system was adopted in 1989. (1993-1997; 2003-2007 and 2008-2012).

According to a comparative research drawing by V-Dem Institute database, Serbia is, as of 2018, classified as 'electoral autocracy', along with countries like Russia, Venezuela, Sudan, Turkey etc. with De-Jure elections for legislature and chief executive.[11]

Electoral system

The 250 members of the National Assembly are elected by proportional representation from a single nationwide constituency. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method with an electoral threshold of 5%, although it is waived for ethnic minority parties.[12]

Current composition

Composition of the Serbian Parliament, after 2016 Parliamentary Elections

SNS–SDPS–PUPS–NS–SPO–PS–SNP (131)

SPS–JS–ZS (29)

SRS (22)

DJB (16)

DS–Nova–ZZS–ZZŠ (16)

Dveri−DSS (13)

SDS–LDP–LSV (13)

National minorities (10)

Opinion polls

The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty. If a poll was conducted prior to an establishment of a party, a hyphen is given instead of the result. Poll results use the date the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

The results of the SNS in different polls represent results of the party itself, although it usually runs in a broad coalition, which includes, besides SNS as the largest party, Social Democratic Party of Serbia, Party of United Pensioners of Serbia, New Serbia, Serbian Renewal Movement, Movement of Socialists, Strength of Serbia Movement, Independent Democratic Party of Serbia and Serbian People's Party. SPS formed a longstanding coalition with United Serbia, included in SPS poll results. All polls are conducted excluding Kosovo.

Pollster Date Sample size SNS SZS SPS DS NS Dveri SRS PSG SPAS DJB DSS Others Lead
CeSid 5–20 Sep 1,510 53.3 15.3 8.8 (with SZS) (with SZS) (with SZS) 4.2 4.2 4.9 1.8 - 7.5 38
Faktor plus 31 Aug–7 Sep 1,200 54.7 9.7 9.4 (with SZS) (with SZS) (with SZS) 4.2 3.5 1.8 - 1.7 15[13] 45
Faktor plus 3–8 Aug 1,100 54.8 9.6 9.4 (with SZS) (with SZS) (with SZS) 4.3 3.6 - - 1.8 16.5[14] 45.2
SZS and SPAS formed
NSPM 12–19 Jul 1,000 50 6.3[15] 9.3 2.2 2.9 2.3 3 1.6 - - - 22.4 40.7
Faktor plus 1–6 Jul 1,200 54.8 5.2[15] 8.8 3.2 3.2 2.8 4.3 2.4 - - 1.3 14[16] 46
Faktor plus 1–7 Jun 1,200 55.3 - 9.4 3.6 3.5 3 2.7 1.6 - - 1.3 19.6[17] 45.9
Faktor plus 2–6 May 1,040 56.9 - 9.6 3.5 3.6 3 2.8 1.8 - - 1.3 17.5[18] 47.3
Faktor plus 6 April 1,100 56.7 - 9.5 3.8 3.4 2.8 2.6 2 - 1 1.3 16.9[19] 47.2
Faktor plus 8 March - 54 - 9.8 3.5 3 2.8 2.9 3.9 - 1.7 1.2 17.2[20] 44.2
Faktor plus 23–29 Jan 1,200 53.1 - 10 6.9 3.9 3 4.2 4.8 - 2.8 - 11.3[21] 43.1
NSPM[22] 24 Dec–4 Jan 1,200 45.6 - 8.9 9[23] 3.1 5 4.5 11.1 - 4.7 - 8.1 34.5
2018
Faktor plus 15–25 Dec 1,200 53 - 10 7 3.8 3 5.2 5.7 - 3.1 - 9.2 43
Faktor plus 28 Nov–5 Dec 1,200 53 - 9.5 6.9 3.8 3 4 5.6 - 2.8 - 11.4 43.5
NPSM[22] 1–10 Nov 1,200 44.2 - 8.8 5.6 3.5 5.2 5.5 16.2 - 2.9 - 8.1 28
Faktor plus 9 Nov - 52.9 - 9.1 6.7 3.3 3.2 4.2 7.2 - 2.6 - 10.8 43.8
NS formed
Ipsos 23 Oct - 55 - 8 4 - 5 6 8 - 3 - 11 47
Faktor plus 4–8 Oct 1,250 52.8 - 9.2 6.9 - 3 4.1 7.8 - 2.3 - 13.9[24] 43.6
NSPM 20–27 Aug 1,000 46.4 - 9.8 4.5 3.1[25] 4.4 5.3 10.3 - 2.5 - 13.7[26] 36.1
Faktor plus 5–10 Aug 1,200 52.1 - 9.7 7.9 - 2.8 4 7 - 2.9 - 13.6 42.4
Ninamedia 17–28 Jul 1,061 52.1 - 8 4.1 - 5 5.1 7.2 - 3.1 - 15.4 44.1
Ipsos 31 Jul - 54 - 8 5 - 5 5 11 - 4 - 8 43
Faktor plus 30 Jun–6 Jul 1,200 52.2 - 9.8 8.0 - 2.9 4 7.9 - 2.8 - 12.4 42.4
Faktor plus 26–31 May 1,100 52 - 9.1 7.4 - 2.7 5.1 8.5 - 3.7 - 11.5 42.9
NSPM 10–17 May 1,000 47.7 - 10.1 6.4 4.9[25] 3.9 5.2 10.5 - 2.5 - 8.8 37.2
Ipsos 19–24 Apr - 55 - 8 5 - 4 5 11 - 2 - 10 44
2017 presidential election (Vučić from SNS wins), PSG formed
Faktor plus 4–7 Mar 1,200 50.6 - 10.6 7.5 - 4 8 - - 6.5 - 12.8 40
Faktor plus 24–31 Jan 1,200 51.2 - 10.5 6.8 - 3.8 8.7 - - 7 - 12 40.7
2017
NSPM 23–30 Dec 1,350 51.1 - 10.8 4.9 - 4.3 7.9 - - 7.1 1.2 12.7 40.3
Faktor plus 16–26 Dec 1,200 51.4 - 10 6.5 - 8.8 - - 7 - 16.3 41.4
Faktor plus 9–16 Nov 1,100 51.5 - 10.4 5.5 - 3.3 8.8 - - 7.1 - 13.4 41.1
Faktor plus 6–11 Oct 1,200 51.4 - 10.6 5 - 3.2 8.9 - - 7 2.1 11.8 40.8
Faktor plus 1–8 Sep 1,200 51 - 10.1 4.8 - 3.1 8 - - 6.3 2 14.7 40.9
Faktor plus 1–8 Aug 1,100 51.9 - 10.3 5 - 3 7.1 - - 7 2.3 13.4 41.6
NSPM 11–22 Jul 1,100 47.5 - 10 6.7 - 4.1 7.1 - - 6 2.8 15.8 37.5
Faktor plus 24–30 Jun 1,200 51.8 - 10.1 5 - 5.3 7.7 - - 7.4 (with Dveri) 12.7 41.7
Faktor plus 30 May 1,200 50.1 - 10.8 5.5 - 5.6 8 - - 7.5 (with Dveri) 12.5 39.3
2016 election 24 Apr 16 N/A 48.25 - 10.95 6.02 - 5.04 8.10 - - 6.02 (with Dveri) 9.24 37.3

References

  1. ↑ Last elections IPU
  2. ↑ "Saša Janković osnovao pokret Slobodni građani Srbije". RTS. 21 May 2017. Retrieved 13 November 2017.
  3. ↑ "Janković osniva pokret".
  4. ↑ "Osnovana narodna stranka".
  5. ↑ "Narodna stranka i PSG počeli pregovore o saradnji".
  6. ↑ "Vučić o vanrednim izborima".
  7. ↑ "Predlog za Kosovo u martu, možda i vanredni izbori".
  8. ↑ "Tri kolone opozicije za izbore".
  9. ↑ "SNS odlučio - nema vanrednih parlamentarnih izbora".
  10. ↑ "Pocetak ujedinjenja opozicije? (In Serbian)".
  11. ↑ "Regimes of the World" (PDF).
  12. ↑ Electoral system IPU
  13. ↑ Including 3.4% for the PUPS, 2.3% for the SDPS and 2% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  14. ↑ Including 3.4% for the PUPS, 2.4% for the SDPS and 2% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  15. 1 2 Hypothetical rating of a party expected to be formed by Dragan Djilas, former Mayor of Belgrade
  16. ↑ Including 3.4% for the PUPS, 2.5% for the SDPS and 1.8% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  17. ↑ Including 3.3% for the PUPS, 2.5% for the SDPS and 1.7% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  18. ↑ Including 3.3% for the PUPS, 2.5% for the SDPS and 1.5% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  19. ↑ Including 3.3% for the PUPS, 2.8% for the SDPS, and 1.3% for the SNP. All three parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  20. ↑ Including 3.2% for the PUPS, 3% for the SDPS. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  21. ↑ Including 3.2% for the PUPS and 2.9% for the SDPS. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  22. 1 2 Poll was conducted in Belgrade, on the matter of voting preferences regarding state level government
  23. ↑ Including 1.8% for SDS.
  24. ↑ Including 3.1% for the PUPS and 2.9% for the SDPS. Both parties went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
  25. 1 2 Hypothetical rating
  26. ↑ Including 1.7% for the SDPS which went in coalition with the SNS in the 2016 election.
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