Estonian parliamentary election, 2019
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101 seats in the Riigikogu 51 seats are needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Electoral districts | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Parliamentary elections will be held in Estonia on 3 March 2019.
Electoral system
The 101 members of the Riigikogu are elected by proportional representation in twelve multi-member constituencies. Seats are allocated using a modified D'Hondt method. Parties have to pass a nationwide threshold of 5%, but if the number of votes cast for an individual candidate exceeds or equals the simple quota (obtained by dividing the number of valid votes cast in the electoral district by the number of mandates in the district), they are elected.[5]
Opinion polls
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded.
Date | Polling Firm | Ref | Kesk | SDE | I | EVA | EKRE | Green | Others | Lead | Govt-Opposition |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
September 2018 | Kantar Emor | 27 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 4.7 | 2 | 43 – 50 |
September 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS | 27 | 28 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 45 – 46 |
August 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS | 25 | 27 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 43 – 46 |
August 2018 | Kantar Emor | 29.8 | 23.8 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 21.2 | 2 | 0.6 | 6 | 41.7 – 55.7 |
July 2018 | Kantar Emor | 30 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 0.7 | 6 | 42 – 55 |
June 2018 | Kantar Emor | 32 | 23 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 5 | – | 9 | 44 – 52 |
June 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS | 28 | 27 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 41 – 50 |
May 2018 | Kantar Emor | 32 | 21 | 11.9 | 5 | 4 | 16.7 | 3 | 6.4 | 11 | 37.9 – 52.7 |
May 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS | 30 | 26 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 40 – 48 |
April 2018 | Kantar Emor | 30 | 21.6 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 19.1 | 6.1 | 1 | 8.4 | 38 – 54.9 |
April 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS | 33 | 26 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 36 – 50 |
8–21 Mar 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS | 31 | 26 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 41 – 47 |
8–14 Mar 2018 | Kantar Emor | 34.1 | 23.8 | 10.6 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 18.3 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 10.3 | 38.5 – 57.4 |
7–20 Feb 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS | 27 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 41 – 45 |
Feb 2018 | Kantar Emor | 34 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 38 – 58 |
15—29 Jan 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS | 26 | 27 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 43 – 42 |
18–25 Jan 2018 | Kantar Emor | 34.2 | 20.5 | 11 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 18.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 13.7 | 36 – 58 |
8–14 Dec 2017 | Kantar Emor | 28 | 22 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 45 – 51 |
22 Nov–5 Dec 2017 | Turu-uuringute AS | 24 | 29 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 48 – 39 |
1–14 Nov 2017 | Turu-uuringute AS | 22 | 27 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 45 – 39 |
1–9 Nov 2017 | Kantar Emor | 29.0 | 26.0 | 15.1 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 14.4 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 3 | 48.1 – 48.5 |
Oct 2017 | Kantar Emor | 27 | 27 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 50 – 46 |
26 Sep–10 Oct 2017 | Turu-uuringute AS | 25 | 29 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 46 – 41 |
5–18 Sep 2017 | Turu-uuringute AS | 25 | 27 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 47 – 43 |
8–14 Sep 2017 | Kantar Emor | 25.7 | 23.1 | 18.7 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 16.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 47.6 – 48,6 |
9–22 Aug 2017 | Turu-uuringute AS | 24 | 29 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 46 – 42 |
11–17 Aug 2017 | TNS Emor | 27.6 | 22.8 | 14.6 | 3.8 | 9.4 | 17.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 4.8 | 41.2 – 54.2 |
Jul 2017 | TNS Emor | 26.4 | 23.1 | 14.8 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 15.9 | 5.4 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 44.2 – 49.7 |
9–16 June 2017 | TNS Emor | 25.4 | 25.1 | 14.2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 16.2 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 45.9 – 50.1 |
25 May–6 Jun 2017 | Turu-uuringute AS | 26 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 43 – 44 |
17–22 May 2017 | Turu-uuringute AS | 23.7 | 24.7 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 1 | 44.5 – 41.1 |
12–18 May 2017 | TNS Emor | 27.5 | 21.8 | 17.8 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 13.4 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 5.7 | 45.2 – 50.8 |
25 Apr–9 May 2017 | Turu-uuringute AS | 25 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 42 – 47 |
Apr 2017 | TNS Emor | 25 | 25 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 45 – 50 |
28 Mar–10 Apr 2017 | Turu-uuringute AS | 20 | 30 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 49 – 40 |
1–14 Mar 2017 | Turu-uuringute AS | 25 | 29 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 47 – 40 |
Mar 2017 | TNS Emor | 26 | 27 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 48 – 50 |
Feb 2017 | Turu-uuringute AS | 23 | 29 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 46 – 41 |
Feb 2017 | TNS Emor | 25 | 27 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 50 – 48 |
19–31 Jan 2017 | Turu-uuringute AS | 25 | 31 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 47 – 41 |
Dec 2016 | TNS Emor | 23 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 52 – 42 |
Dec 2016 | Turu-uuringute AS | 20 | 32 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 55 – 34 |
23 Nov 2016 | Jüri Ratas' cabinet is sworn in | ||||||||||
Nov 2016 | TNS Emor | 23 | 24 | 19 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | N/A |
Nov 2016 | Turu-uuringute AS | 21 | 29 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 12 | – | 7 | 8 | N/A |
9 Nov 2016 | Taavi Rõivas loses the vote of no confidence in Riigikogu | ||||||||||
Oct 2016 | TNS Emor | 22 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 47 – 50 |
Oct 2016 | Turu-uuringute AS | 25 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 10 | – | 11 | 1 | 44 – 45 |
Sep 2016 | TNS Emor | 22 | 20 | 19 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 50 – 45 |
Sep 2016 | Turu-uuringute AS | 25 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 10 | – | 11 | 1 | 44 – 45 |
Aug 2016 | TNS Emor | 28 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 51 – 45 |
Aug 2016 | Turu-uuringute AS | 23 | 24 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 13 | – | 10 | 1 | 43 – 47 |
Jun 2016 | TNS Emor | 27 | 21 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 50 – 46 |
Jun 2016 | Turu-uuringute AS | 20 | 28 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 37 – 53 |
May 2016 | Turu-uuringute AS | 21 | 23 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 14 | – | 15 | 2 | 37 – 48 |
Apr 2016 | TNS Emor | 23 | 22 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 46 – 50 |
Apr 2016 | Turu-uuringute AS | 21 | 25 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 14 | – | 8 | 4 | 41 – 51 |
Mar 2016 | Turu-uuringute AS | 23 | 25 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 13 | – | 8 | 2 | 42 – 50 |
Mar 2016 | TNS Emor | 23 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 43 – 54 |
Feb 2016 | Turu-uuringute AS | 23 | 29 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 11 | – | 7 | 6 | 41 – 52 |
Feb 2016 | TNS Emor | 22 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 44 – 51 |
Jan 2016 | Turu-uuringute AS | 17 | 26 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 12 | – | 12 | 9 | 37 – 51 |
Dec 2015 | Turu-uuringute AS | 20 | 25 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 10 | – | 11 | 5 | 41 – 48 |
Dec 2015 | TNS Emor | 21 | 25 | 16 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 45 – 51 |
Nov 2015 | Turu-uuringute AS | 17 | 33 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 9 | – | 9 | 16 | 38 – 53 |
Nov 2015 | TNS Emor | 20 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 43 – 51 |
Oct 2015 | Turu-uuringute AS | 19 | 27 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 10 | – | 8 | 8 | 41 – 51 |
Sep 2015 | TNS Emor | 24 | 24 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 49 – 48 |
Sep 2015 | Turu-uuringute AS | 21 | 29 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 6 | – | 9 | 8 | 45 – 46 |
Aug 2015 | TNS Emor | 20 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 45 – 51 |
Jun 2015 | Turu-uuringute AS | 16 | 28 | 18 | 9 | 15 | 6 | – | 8 | 10 | 43 – 49 |
Jun 2015 | TNS Emor | 18 | 26 | 16 | 8 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 42 – 54 |
May 2015 | Turu-uuringute AS | 18 | 31 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 7 | – | 8 | 13 | 40 – 52 |
May 2015 | TNS Emor | 19 | 26 | 17 | 8 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 44 – 52 |
Apr 2015 | Turu-uuringute AS | 22 | 26 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 7 | – | 6 | 4 | 49 – 45 |
Mar 2015 | TNS Emor | 28 | 24 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 54 – 45 |
1 Mar 2015 | Election Results | 27.7 | 24.8 | 15.2 | 13.7 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 56,6 – 41,6 |
References
- ↑ "Kaja Kallas elected Reform Party's first-ever chairwoman". ERR. 14 April 2018. Retrieved 30 April 2018.
- ↑ "Ossinovski valiti sotside uueks juhiks, Mikser loobus". Postimees. 30 May 2015. Retrieved 30 May 2015.
- ↑ "Helir-Valdor Seeder elected chairman of IRL". ERR. 13 May 2017. Retrieved 13 April 2017.
- ↑ "Fotod: Vabaerakond valis uueks esimeheks Kaul Nurme". ERR. Retrieved 30 September 2018.
- ↑ "Riigikogu Election Act". Riigi Teataja. 20 January 2015. Retrieved 1 April 2015.