Demographic crisis of Russia

In the economic sphere

The demographic crisis has a positive economic effect on the second stage of the changing age structure of the population (the fraction of the average working-age generation is maximal at a relatively small proportion of younger and older) and a negative economic effect on the third stage of the changing age structure of the population (when the proportion of the older generation is maximal at a relatively small share younger and middle generation). By 2025, Russia will have labor shortages.

With a reduced fertility rate, the load on the working population increases because each worker has to support more retirees.

The rapid rise in the birth rate in a short period of time is difficult to implement due to economic reasons; sharply increased social spending on the old generation, which in the future will only bring troubles.

In education

The number of high school graduates in Russia has steadily decreased, so universities have to compete for each applicant. Due to the demographic crisis, there is potential for a reduction in the number of universities in the country.

In the coming years, there are plans to lay off 100,000 teachers (one in four) as the number of students decreases by one million each year. By 2015, the reduction of the teaching staff will be 20-50%.

The number of university students in 2013 will amount to 4.2 million, a decrease of more than 40% in relation to the number of students in 2009 (7.4 million).

According to the Education Minister Andrei Fursenko, the demographic crisis will help get rid of the high schools that provide poor quality education.

In the field of defense

One of the consequences of the demographic crisis is a reduced mobilization potential for the country's armed forces. The demographic crisis affects the nature of the military reform, forcing the military to reduce their numbers, cancel deferments from military service, and eventually move towards hired contractors. As of 2009, the potential mobilization reserve of Russia was 31 million (for comparison, in the United States - 56 million, China - 208 million). In 2010, the organized mobilization reserve was 20 million people. In one possible scenario, the number of 18 year-olds (current mobilization reserve) in 2050 may be reduced by 4 times and could be 328 thousand people.

In the social sphere

Tf. Mr. Professor Antonov AI notes, that the world has tended to strengthen the organization of life without family, to a convenient and unobtrusive solitary bachelor existence, the Stockholm model. And, as a consequence, the number of children in families, which, in turn, leads to a sharp change in the whole system of life, value systems, the weakening of fatherhood and motherhood, unity of parents and children, the disappearance of the roles of brother and sister, disrupt kinship systems.

Threats

A number of researchers believe that the depopulation affected the Russian people to a greater extent than other peoples living in Russia. According to Rybakovskii, the real (and not the census) number of Russians for the period from 1989 to 2002 decreased by 7%, while the overall country population - only by 1.3%. According to Beloborodov, by the year 2025 85-90% of the population decline in Russia will be due to Russians and in the course of the next 20 years the percentage of Russians as a rough estimate will drop to about 60 to 70%. He predicts also that in 2050, the proportion of Russians in Russia will amount to 46.5%. Some researchers, considering the reduction of the indigenous population as a result of the demographic crisis, given accompanying high immigration (in the case of lack of assimilation of migrants), have made very alarming forecasts. As one of the likely consequences of the demographic crisis some researchers point to a deep change in the future ethno-religious composition of the population (with a share of more than 20% of migrants appear closed ethnic groups, assimilation difficult and exacerbated ethnic conflicts). By 2030, one in five people of Russia will practice Islam. A graphic example of ethnic aspect of the demographic crisis: now a third of all the births in Moscow accounts for migrants, which would change the ethnic and religious composition of the population of Moscow in the nearest future. Reduction of the indigenous population by increasing the share of migrants in the opinion of some researchers may lead to future loss of the territorial integrity of Russia. Chances are that the first territorial losses will be in Siberia and Russian Far East. This is due both to the depopulation of these lands because of low birth rates and internal migration to the European part of Russia, and to the demographic pressure from Asian countries (especially China). For the first time in the history of Russian Siberia, its population is steadily declining.