Democratic Republic of the Congo general election, 2018

DR Congo presidential election, 2018
23 December 2018

President before election

Joseph Kabila
PPRD

 Elected President

TBD

Democratic Republic of the Congo
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General elections are scheduled to be held in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on 23 December 2018, to determine a successor to incumbent President Joseph Kabila.[1] They were originally scheduled for 27 November 2016, but were delayed with a broken promise to hold them by the end of 2017.[2] According to the constitution, the second and final term of President Kabila expired on 20 December 2016.[3]

Incumbent President Kabila is constitutionally unable to participate and a cabinet minister has said he will not run.[4] He and his party, the People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy, support the candidacy of Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, the former Interior Minister.[5]

Background

On 29 September 2016, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) announced that the elections would not be held until early 2018. According to CENI's vice president, the commission "hasn’t called elections in 2016 because the number of voters isn’t known."[6] The announcement came ten days after deadly protests against Kabila in Kinshasa saw 17 people killed. The opposition alleged that Kabila intentionally delayed the elections to remain in power.[3]

An agreement reached with the opposition in December 2016 allowed Kabila to stay in office with a requirement to hold elections by the end of 2017. However, on 7 July 2017, CENI President Corneille Nangaa said it would not be possible to organize presidential elections by the end of the year.[7] Opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi condemned the announcement on Twitter, saying Nangaa had "declared war on the Congolese people."[8]

In November 2017 CENI announced that elections will be held in December 2018, after previously claiming earlier that month that elections could not be held until April 2019 due to the difficulties of registering voters in a country with underdeveloped infrastructure.[9] Prime Minister Bruno Tshibala confirmed in March 2018 that the election will occur in December.[10]

According to the UN a total of 47 people had been killed at protests against President Kabila during this period, which occurred throughout 2017 and into 2018.[11][12]

According to Human Rights Watch, government security forces used live rounds to disperse crowds of opposition supporters throughout August 2018, stating that the total death toll by then since 2015 was 300 people. HRW also documented attempts by the Congolese government to persecute members of the opposition, such as banning Moïse Katumbi from entering the country and forcefully dispersing a rally in support of Jean Pierre Bemba.[13]

Electoral system

According to Article 71 of the DRC Constitution, the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is elected by plurality vote in one round. Article 72 specifies that the requirements to stand as a candidate for the presidency are being a Congolese citizen and at least thirty years old.[14][15]

Article 101 of the Constitution provides the basis for electing a National Assembly.[14] The 500 members of the National Assembly are elected by two methods; 60 are elected from single-member constituencies using first-past-the-post voting, and 440 are elected from 109 multi-member constituencies by open list proportional representation, with seats allocated using the largest remainder method to all lists gathering more than 1 % of the valid votes.[16]

Potential candidates

On 25 May 2018, businessman and former governor of Katanga Province Moïse Katumbi discussed with fellow opposition presidential candidate Félix Tshisekedi, son of the late opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi, at the Atlantic Council about fielding a single opposition candidate.[17] In early September 2018, he again called on the opposition to unite behind a single candidate.[18]

As of August 2018, the country's Independent National Electoral Commission is reviewing candidates.[5] A preliminary list of candidates, including 25 names, was published on August 10, 2018. Another list will be published on August 24, and the final one will be published on September 19.[19]

On September 3, the Constitutional Court of the DRC upheld the national election commission's decision to ban six potential candidates from taking part in the election, including opposition leader Jean Pierre Bemba.[20][21]

Disqualified candidates

Opinion polls

Opinion polling is rare in the Democratic Republic of the Congo due to poor roads and lack of electricity.[25] Nevertheless, the Congo Research Group (CRG) released a poll in October 2016 of 7,545 respondents in the country's 26 provinces. The poll found that 33% would vote for Katumbi, 18% for Etienne Tshisekedi, and 7.8% for Kabila.

A May 2017 poll of 7,500 respondents carried out by CRG/BERCI found that 38% would vote for Katumbi, 10% for Kabila, 5% for Félix Tshisekedi, Vital Kamerhe and Jean-Pierre Bemba, 24% for other candidates, and 13% would not vote.[26]

A March 2018 poll carried out by the CRG showed Katumbi obtaining 26%, Tshisekedi with 14%, Adolphe Muzito and Kamerhe tied at 9%, Kabila with 7%, and Augustin Mataya Ponyo and Aubin Minaku with 3% each.[27]

A June 2018 Top Congo FM poll amongst opposition supporters showed Katumbi winning 54% of the opposition's vote, with Kamerhe at 34%, Bemba at 7%, and Tshisikedi at 5%.[28]

References

  1. ↑ Uncertainty as DRC sets election date to replace Kabila Al Jazeera, 9 November 2017
  2. ↑ DR Congo sets elections for December 2018 African Medias, 5 November 2017
  3. 1 2 DR Congo election: 17 dead in anti-Kabila protests BBC News, 29 September 2016
  4. ↑ DRC crisis: aide says Kabila not standing in elections The Guardian, 7 February 2018
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 "Joseph Kabila says he will not run again in Congo". The Economist. 8 August 2018. Retrieved 8 August 2018.
  6. ↑ Wilson, Thomas; Mbatha, Amogelgang (29 September 2016). "Congo Election Body Proposes Two-Year Wait for Presidential Vote". Bloomberg BusinessWeek. Retrieved 29 September 2016.
  7. ↑ Congo Election Commission: Vote Can't Be Held by End of Year The New York Times, 8 July 2017
  8. ↑ Felix A. Tshisekedi Twitter
  9. ↑ Patient Ligodi, Amedee Mwarabu (5 November 2017). Congo sets presidential election for December 2018. Retrieved 8 March 2018.
  10. ↑ Congo presidential election on course for December, says prime minister. Standardmedia.ke. Published 8 March 2018. Retrieved 8 March 2018.
  11. ↑ DR Congo Faces Call For Standstill Over Protest Deaths. Channels Television. Published 9 March 2018. Retrieved 9 March 2018.
  12. ↑ Year of anti-Kabila protests in DR Congo leaves 47 dead: UN. Yahoo News. Published 19 March 2018. Retrieved 19 March 2018.
  13. ↑ DR Congo: Opposition Under Assault. Published 28 August 2018. Human Rights Watch. Retrieved 30 August 2018.
  14. 1 2 Constitution of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (PDF), 2005. Retrieved 2 March 2018.
  15. ↑ Democratic Republic of the Congo IFES
  16. ↑ Electoral system IPU
  17. ↑ Sen, Ashish Kumar. "Congolese Opposition Leaders Join Forces". Retrieved 20 September 2018.
  18. ↑ Bemba disqualification expected: DRC opposition must unite – Katumbi. Africa News. 4 September 2018.
  19. 1 2 3 4 5 6 25 line up for DR Congo presidency. 12 August 2018.
  20. ↑ DR Congo's top court confirms Bemba's exclusion from presidential election. Africa News. 3 September 2018.
  21. 1 2 3 4 5 All six banned DR Congo vote candidates appeal. 29 August 2018.
  22. ↑ "DR Congo bans former warlord Jean-Pierre Bemba's from presidential elections". Retrieved 20 September 2018.
  23. ↑ DR Congo opposition rally behind exiled leader Katumbi. 10 March 2018.
  24. ↑ DR Congo presidential election on track – Prime Minister. 8 March 2018
  25. ↑ "Congolese oppose extension of Kabila's mandate, poll shows". Reuters. 2016. Retrieved 22 January 2018.
  26. ↑ CRG (2017-05-23). "CRG/BERCI public opinion poll: The Takeaway | Congo Research Group | Groupe d'Etude Sur le Congo". Congo Research Group. Retrieved 2018-01-22.
  27. ↑ "RDC: Elections: des opposants en tête d'un sondage — La Libre Afrique". 2 March 2018. Retrieved 20 September 2018.
  28. ↑ "Moise Katumbi scores more than 50% votes in opinion polls – Mwebantu". mwebantu.com. Retrieved 20 September 2018.
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