Colley Matrix

Colley Matrix is a computer-generated sports rating system designed by Dr. Wes Colley.

The site is one of more than 40 polls, rankings, and formulas recognized by the NCAA in its list of national champion major selections.[1] In 2018, the Mountain West Conference moved away from using the poll, along with three others, to determine the host site for its conference championship game in football.[2]

Methodology

In this initial paper at Princeton University, Colley states, "The method is based on very simple statistical principles, and uses only Div. I-A wins and losses as input — margin of victory does not matter. The scheme adjusts effectively for strength of schedule, in a way that is free of bias toward conference, tradition, or region."[3] Colley claims that his method is bias-free for estimating the ranking of a team given a particular schedule. The resulting values for each team are identified as a ranking, thus being a realization of Pierre-Simon Laplace’s Rule of Succession.

In a 2018 study released in the journal Science Advances, the ratings system finished third for highest accuracy of ranking synthetic data sets.[4]

BCS Rankings

The Colley Matrix was one of the computer rankings used during Bowl Championship Series (BCS) system of determining national championship game participants from 2001-2014. Added in 2001, The Peter Wolfe and Wes Colley/Atlanta Journal-Constitution computer rankings were used in place of the NYT and Dunkel rankings. The change was made because the BCS wanted computer rankings that did not depend heavily on margin of victory.[5]

Criticism

The methodology of the rankings have been questioned by others on the grounds of subjectivity and specifics of the statistical math.[6][7]

Controversies

In the final BCS rankings of 2010, LSU was incorrectly ranked ahead of Boise State, at No. 10 instead of No. 11. The error was a result of Colley failing to input the Appalachian State/Western Illinois FCS playoff game correctly, a mistake that affected an order that helped determine bowl pairings that season.[8]

At the end of the 2012 season, the Colley Matrix ranked Notre Dame as first and Alabama second despite the Crimson Tide defeating the Fighting Irish 42-14 in the 2013 BCS National Championship Game.[9]

After the 2017 season, Central Florida was ranked atop the Colley Matrix despite Alabama winning the College Football Playoff. UCF claimed a share of the national title and is listed in the NCAA stat book as the top-ranked team by the Colley Matrix.[10]

References

  1. ↑ "National champions: UCF Knights finish season ranked No. 1 in Colley Matrix" Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved 2018-09-01.
  2. ↑ "Mountain West announces new host procedure for conference football championship game" San Diego Union-Tribune. Retrieved 2018-09-01.
  3. ↑ "Colley’s Bias Free College Football Ranking Method: The Colley Matrix Explained" ColleyRankings.com. Retrieved 2018-09-01.
  4. ↑ "A physical model for efficient ranking in networks" Science Advances. Retrieved 2018-09-01.
  5. ↑ "BCS formula still subject of debate". ESPN.com. September 16, 2002. Archived from the original on October 18, 2015. Retrieved May 1, 2009.
  6. ↑ "The problem with RPI, Elo, and the Colley Matrix" Jelly Juke. Retrieved 2018-09-01.
  7. ↑ "Statistics of Colley’s Ranking Methodology" Squared Statistics. Retrieved 2018-09-01.
  8. ↑ "The Computer Poll Uprising: Creators of the BCS's Most Controversial Component Look Back" Sports Illustrated. Retrieved 2018-09-01.
  9. ↑ "Notre Dame is still No. 1, according to one BCS computer" USA Today. Retrieved 2018-09-01.
  10. ↑ "NCAA rule book recognizes UCF’s national championship" NBC Sports. Retrieved 2018-09-01.
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