2023 vision

The 2023 vision is a list of goals released by the administration of Prime Minister (now President) Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to coincide with the centenary of the Republic of Turkey in 2023.

Elements of the 2023 vision

Economy

  • Become one of the top ten world economies by 2023 (Assessment: Turkey was 17th in 2017, and as of 2018, the International Monetary Fund expects Turkey to be ranked 18th globally in 2018 and to regain the 17th place by 2023)[1]
  • Gross domestic product of $ 1 trillion by 2014 (Assessment: $ 0.798 trillion in 2014)[2][3] and of $ 2 trillion by 2023 (Assessment: As of 2018, the IMF expects the Turkish economy to expand to $ 1.22 trillion by 2023)[1]
  • Per capita income of $ 25,000 by 2023 (Assessment: $ 9,969 in 2017)[3]
  • Increase annual Turkish exports to $ 500 billion by 2023 (Assessment: $ 150 billion in 2016)[4]
  • Foreign trade volume of $1 trillion by 2023
  • Increase the employment rate by 10 points to a working population of 30 million by 2023 (Assessment: 30.2 million in labour force by 2016)[5]
  • Reduce the unemployment rate to 5 percent by 2023 (Assessment: 11.8% in 2016)[6]

Energy

Former Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu
  • Build 20,000 Megawatt installed capacity of wind energy and 600 Megawatt installed capacity of geothermal energy[7]
  • Reduce energy consumption to 20 percent below 2010 levels through improved efficiency[8]
  • Three operating nuclear power plants and those plants are expected to have an installed capacity of 14,700 Megawatt.

Foreign policy

Turkey's foreign-policy objectives and vision as articulated by former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu:

Health care

  • 100 percent participation in health insurance systems
  • Raise the number of physicians per 100,000 people to 210 physicians (175 currently)

Transport

Tourism

Explanations for failure

2018 Turkish currency and debt crisis

The Turkish currency and debt crisis of 2018 is an ongoing financial crisis in Turkey. It is characterized by a plunging value of the Turkish lira, high inflation, rising borrowing costs and corresponding loan defaults.

Under the government of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has been running huge and growing current account deficits, reaching $ 7.1 billion by January 2018, while the rolling 12-month deficit rose to $ 51.6 billion.[13] By the end of 2017, the corporate foreign-currency debt pile in Turkey had more than doubled since 2009, to $ 214 billion after netting against their foreign-exchange assets, equal to about 40 percent of economic output, with about 80 percent held by domestic banks.[14]

Table: How many Lira a US Dollar could buy on average in every year[15]
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
USD/TRY 1.344 1.428 1.303 1.302 1.550 1.503 1.675 1.796 1.904 2.189 2.720 3.020 3.648

In 2018, the lira's exchange rate accelerated deterioration, reaching a level of 4.5 USD/TRY by mid-May. Among economists, the accelerating loss of value was generally attributed to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan preventing the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey from making the necessary interest rate adjustments.[16][17] Erdogan, who claimed interest rates beyond his control to be "the mother and father of all evil", said that "the central bank can't take this independence and set aside the signals given by the president."[16]

The "Mastermind" conspiracy theory

In 2014, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan coined the term "mastermind" (Turkish: üst akıl) to denote the alleged command and control institution, somewhat ambiguously placed with the government of the United States, in a comprehensive conspiracy to weaken or even dismember Turkey, by orchestrating every political actor and action perceived hostile by Turkey.[18][19][20] Erdoğan as well as the Daily Sabah have on multiple occasions alleged that very different non-state actors — like the Salafi jihadist Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Anarcho-Marxist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Islamist cult with political ambitions around Fethullah Gülen — were attacking Turkey at the same time in a well-coordinated campaign.[21] A notable instance of promoting the "Mastermind" conspiracy theory was in February 2017 Ankara Mayor Melih Gökçek claiming that earthquakes in the western province of Çanakkale could have been organized by dark external powers aiming to destroy Turkey’s economy with an "artificial earthquake" near Istanbul.[22]

In the campaign for the 2018 general election in Turkey, a widespread conspiracy theory, infused with antisemitism, claimed that the Turkish lira's decline were the work of a shadowy group, made up of Americans, English, Dutch and "some Jewish families" who would want to deprive incumbent President Erdogan of support in the elections.[23] According to a poll from April 2018, 42 percent of Turks, and 59 percent of governing AK Party voters, saw the decline in the lira as a plot by foreign powers.[24]

References

  1. 1 2 Mark Bentley (2 June 2018). "Mr. Erdoğan: drop impossible growth goals to stabilise economy". Ahval.
  2. ↑ Emre Peker; Yeliz Candemir. "Turkey's 2014 GDP Below Official Expectations". The Wall Street Journal. Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Retrieved 23 July 2016.
  3. 1 2 "Report for Selected Countries and Subjects". www.imf.org. Retrieved 2017-04-16.
  4. ↑ "Survey reveals high hopes for Turkish exports". Hürriyet Daily News. January 17, 2011. Retrieved 2011-01-28.
  5. ↑ "The World Factbook — Central Intelligence Agency". www.cia.gov. Retrieved 2017-04-16.
  6. ↑ "Unemployment rate according to Turish government".
  7. ↑ "Speech By H.E. Abdullah Gül, President Of The Republic Of Turkey, On The Occasion Of "Turkish-Swiss Cleantech Forum"". Presidency Of The Republic Of Turkey. November 26, 2010. Retrieved 2011-01-09.
  8. ↑ "Turkey plans to use 20 percent less energy by 2023". World Bulletin. 13 January 2011. Retrieved 2011-01-13.
  9. ↑ Ahmet Davutoğlu (May 20, 2010). "A new vision". Foreign Policy.
  10. ↑ "The 2023 targets in the economy". Habertürk (in Turkish). January 23, 2011. Retrieved 2011-01-24.
  11. ↑ "Mr Ertuğrul Günay" (PDF). London Business Guide. May 11, 2008. Retrieved 2010-12-09.
  12. ↑ "Tourism Minister Gunay: 2023 Target Is To Host 50 Million Tourists". Turkish Press. May 11, 2008. Retrieved 2010-12-09.
  13. ↑ "Turkish current account deficit more than doubles". Ahval. 12 March 2018.
  14. ↑ "Turkey's Bill for Debt-Fueled Economic Growth Starts to Fall Due". Bloomberg. 29 March 2018.
  15. ↑ "Exchange rates". OECD.
  16. 1 2 "Turkey's leader is helping to crash its currency". Washington Post. 16 May 2018.
  17. ↑ "Investors lose their appetite for Turkey". Financial Times. 16 May 2018.
  18. ↑ Mustafa Akyol (31 October 2014). "The Middle East 'mastermind' who worries Erdogan". Al-Monitor. Retrieved 10 January 2017.
  19. ↑ Mustafa Akyol (19 March 2015). "Unraveling the AKP's 'Mastermind' conspiracy theory". Al-Monitor. Retrieved 10 January 2017.
  20. ↑ Mustafa Akyol (12 September 2016). "The Tin-Foil Hats Are Out in Turkey". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 10 January 2017.
  21. ↑ Mustafa Akyol (9 January 2017). "Why Turkish government pushes 'global conspiracy' narrative". Al-Monitor. Retrieved 10 January 2017.
  22. ↑ "Foreign powers performing 'earthquake tests' near Istanbul to destroy economy: Ankara mayor". Hurriyet Daily News. 7 February 2017. Retrieved 7 February 2017.
  23. ↑ "Tumbling Turkish lira tests voters' support for Erdogan". Financial Times. 18 May 2018.
  24. ↑ "Forty-two percent of Turks say lira's drop is foreign plot". Ahval. 18 May 2018.
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