Disease X

Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of SARS-CoV-2, speculated in 2020 as being the first real-world virus to create Disease X

Disease X is a placeholder name that was adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) in February 2018 on their shortlist of blueprint priority diseases to represent a hypothetical, unknown pathogen that could cause a future epidemic.

Quotes

The threat of pandemic flu is the number one health security concern, are we ready to respond? I fear the answer is no.
- Luciana Borio at a symposium at Emory University in Atlanta in 2018, marking the 100th anniversary of 1918 flu pandemic. As quoted in Contrary to Trump’s Claim, A Pandemic Was Widely Expected at Some Point (March 20, 2020) by Rem Rieder, FactCheck.org.

As experience has taught us more often than not the thing that is gonna hit us is something that we did not anticipate. Just the way we didn't anticipate Zika, we didn't think there would be an Ebola that would hit cities. [...] If you develop an understanding of the commonalities of those, you can respond more rapidly.
- Anthony Fauci, as quoted in World Health Organization gets ready for 'Disease X' (March 12, 2018) by Susan Scutti, CNN

Experts say we are "due" for one. When it happens, they tell us, it will probably have a greater impact on humanity than anything else currently happening in the world. And yet, like with most people, it is probably something you haven't spent much time thinking about. After all, it is human nature to avoid being consumed by hypotheticals until they are staring us squarely in the face. Such is the case with a highly lethal flu pandemic. And when it comes, it will affect every human alive today.
- Sanjay Gupta, The big one is coming, and it's going to be a flu pandemic (November 7, 2018), CNN

Pandemic flu is apolitical and does not discriminate between rich and poor. Geographical boundaries are meaningless, and it can circle the globe within hours. In terms of potential impact on mankind, the only thing that comes close is climate change. And, like climate change, pandemic flu is so vast, it can be challenging to wrap your head around it.
- Sanjay Gupta, The big one is coming, and it's going to be a flu pandemic (November 7, 2018), CNN

When most people hear "flu," they typically think of seasonal flu. No doubt, seasonal flu can be deadly, especially for the very young and old, as well as those with compromised immune systems. For most people, however, the seasonal flu virus, which mutates just a little bit every year, is not particularly severe because our immune systems have already probably seen a similar flu virus and thus know how to fight it. It's called native immunity or protection, and almost all of us have some degree of it. Babies are more vulnerable because they haven't been exposed to the seasonal flu and older people because their immune systems may not be functioning as well. Pandemic flu is a different animal, and you should understand the difference.
- Sanjay Gupta, The big one is coming, and it's going to be a flu pandemic (November 7, 2018), CNN

Panˈdemik/: pan means "all"; demic (or demographic) means "people." It is well-named, because pandemic flu spreads easily throughout the world. Unlike seasonal flu, pandemics occur when a completely new or novel virus emerges. This sort of virus can emerge directly from animal reservoirs or be the result of a dramatic series of mutations -- so-called reassortment events -- in previously circulating viruses. In either case, the result is something mankind has never seen before: a pathogen that can spread easily from person to defenseless person, our immune systems never primed to launch any sort of defense.
- Sanjay Gupta, The big one is coming, and it's going to be a flu pandemic (November 7, 2018), CNN

Whether it will be contained or not, this outbreak is rapidly becoming the first true pandemic challenge that fits the disease X category.
- Marion Koopmans on the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic, as quoted in Coronavirus May Be ‘Disease X’ Health Experts Warned About (February 21, 2020) by Jason Gale, Bloomberg News

History tells us that it is likely the next big outbreak will be something we have not seen before. It may seem strange to be adding an 'X' but the point is to make sure we prepare and plan flexibly in terms of vaccines and diagnostic tests. We want to see 'plug and play' platforms developed which will work for any, or a wide number of diseases; systems that will allow us to create countermeasures at speed. [...] As the ecosystem and human habitats change there is always the risk of disease jumping from animals to humans. It’s a natural process and it is vital that we are aware and prepare. It is probably the greatest risk.
- John-Arne Røttingen, as quoted in Scientists put on alert for deadly new pathogen – 'Disease X' by Paul Nuki and Alanna Shaikh, 10 March 2018, The Daily Telegraph

Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease, and so the R&D Blueprint explicitly seeks to enable cross-cutting R&D preparedness that is also relevant for an unknown “Disease X” as far as possible.
- World Health Organization, 2018 annual review of the Blueprint list of priority diseases

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