Opinion polling for the next Australian federal election

In the leadup to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have been conducting regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorate's views on major party leaders.

Graphical summary
Two-party-preferred vote.
Primary vote.
Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. Local regression trends for each party are shown as solid lines.

Voting intention

Poll results
Date Brand Firm Interview Mode Sample Size Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
13–14, 20–21 June 2020 Morgan Poll[1] Roy Morgan Telephone/Online 2593 42.5% 34.5% 10.5% 4% 8.5% 50.5% 49.5%
3–6 June 2020 Newspoll[2] YouGov Online 1512 42% 34% 12% 4% 8% 51% 49%
13–16 May 2020 Newspoll[3] YouGov Online 1504 43% 35% 10% 3% 9% 51% 49%
18–19, 25–26 April 2020 Morgan Poll[4] Roy Morgan Telephone/Online 2806 43.5% 33% 11.5% 3% 9% 51.5% 48.5%
22–25 April 2020 Newspoll[5] YouGov Online 1519 41% 36% 12% 4% 7% 50% 50%
1–3 April 2020 Newspoll[6] YouGov Online 1508 42% 34% 13% 5% 6% 51% 49%
11–14 March 2020 Newspoll[7] YouGov Online 1501 40% 36% 12% 4% 8% 49% 51%
27 February 2020 Scott Morrison declares coronavirus pandemic a national emergency
19–22 February 2020 Newspoll[8] YouGov Online 1513 38% 34% 13% 4% 11% 49% 51%
20 January – 3 February 2020 ANU poll[9] ANU CATI & Online 3249 34.8% 33.4% 14.7% – 10.5% – –
4 February 2020 Adam Bandt replaces Richard Di Natale as Greens leader
29 January – 1 February 2020 Newspoll[10] YouGov Online 1510 38% 35% 13% 4% 10% 48% 52%
8–11 January 2020 Newspoll[11] YouGov Online 1505 40% 36% 12% 4% 8% 49% 51%
January 2020 Australian bushfire season peaks
4–8 December 2019 Newspoll[12] YouGov Online 1503 42% 33% 11% 5% 9% 52% 48%
21–23 November 2019 Newspoll[13] YouGov Online[14] 1519 41% 33% 12% 5% 9% 51% 49%
7–10 November 2019 Newspoll[15] YouGov IVR/Online 1682 40% 35% 12% 7% 6% 50% 50%
17–20 October 2019 Newspoll[16] YouGov IVR/Online 1634 42% 33% 13% 6% 6% 51% 49%
26–29 September 2019 Newspoll[17] YouGov IVR/Online 1658 42% 33% 13% 6% 6% 51% 49%
5–7 September 2019 Newspoll[18] YouGov IVR/Online 1661 43% 35% 12% 5% 5% 51% 49%
15–18 August 2019 Newspoll[19] YouGov IVR/Online 1623 42% 34% 11% 4% 9% 51% 49%
25–28 July 2019 Newspoll[20] YouGov IVR/Online 1601 44% 33% 11% 3% 9% 53% 47%
30 May 2019 Anthony Albanese replaces Bill Shorten as Labor leader
18 May 2019 election 41.44% 33.34% 10.4% 3.08% 11.74% 51.53% 48.47%

Preferred Prime Minister

Poll results
Date Brand Firm Interview Mode Sample Size Preferred Prime Minister Morrison Albanese
Morrison Albanese Don't Know Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know
3–6 June 2020 Newspoll[2] YouGov Online 1512 56% 26% 18% 66% 29% 5% 41% 38% 21%
2 June 2020 Essential[21] Essential Online 1059 53% 23% 24% 65% 26% 9% 43% 30% 27%
13–16 May 2020 Newspoll[3] YouGov Online 1504 56% 29% 15% 66% 30% 4% 44% 37% 19%
5 May 2020 Essential[22] Essential Online 1093 50% 25% 25% 64% 27% 9% 42% 27% 31%
22–25 April 2020 Newspoll[23] YouGov Online 1508 56% 28% 16% 68% 28% 4% 45% 34% 21%
2–5 April 2020 Essential[24] Essential Online 1069 46% 27% 27% 59% 31% 10% 44% 29% 27%
1–3 April 2020 Newspoll[25] YouGov Online 1508 53% 29% 18% 61% 35% 4% 45% 36% 19%
11–14 March 2020 Newspoll[26] YouGov Online 1501 42% 38% 20% 41% 53% 6% 40% 40% 20%
11 March 2020 Essential[27] Essential Online 1096 40% 35% 25% 41% 49% 10% 41% 33% 26%
19–22 February 2020 Newspoll[28] YouGov Online 1513 40% 41% 19% 38% 58% 4% 39% 44% 17%
11 February 2020 Essential[29] Essential Online 1056 36% 36% 28% 39% 52% 9% 41% 31% 28%
29 January – 1 February 2020 Newspoll[30] YouGov Online 1510 38% 43% 19% 37% 59% 4% 43% 40% 17%
7–11 January 2020 Essential[31] Essential Online 1081 36% 39% 25% 40% 52% 8% 43% 30% 27%
8–11 January 2020 Newspoll[11] YouGov Online 1505 39% 43% 18% 37% 59% 4% 46% 37% 17%
5–8 December 2019 Essential[32] Essential Online 1035 n/a n/a n/a 45% 43% 12% 39% 28% 33%
8 December 2019 Newspoll[12] YouGov Online 48% 34% 18% 45% 48% 7% 40% 41% 19%
23 November 2019 Newspoll[13] YouGov Online 46% 35% 19% 43% 52% 5% 38% 45% 17%
12 November 2019 Essential[33] YouGov Online 44% 28% 29% 45% 41% 14% 37% 34% 29%
10 November 2019 Newspoll[15] YouGov IVR/Online 46% 32% 22% 46% 43% 11% 42% 37% 21%
20 October 2019 Newspoll[16] YouGov IVR/Online 47% 32% 21% 47% 45% 8% 37% 44% 19%
15 October 2019 Essential[34] Essential Online 43% 28% 29% 47% 38% 15% 40% 29% 31%
29 September 2019 Newspoll[17] YouGov IVR/Online 50% 31% 19% 47% 43% 10% 39% 40% 21%
17 September 2019 Essential[35] Essential Online 46% 25% 29% 49% 36% 15% 36% 31% 33%
5–7 September 2019 Newspoll[18] YouGov IVR/Online 48% 28% 24% 49% 39% 12% 35% 40% 25%
1 September 2019 YouGov[36] YouGov Online 46% 23% 31% n/a% n/a% n/a% n/a% n/a% n/a%
22 August 2019 Essential[37] Essential Online 44% 28% 28% 48% 37% 15% 38% 29% 33%
15–18 August 2019 Newspoll[38] YouGov IVR/Online 48% 30% 22% 48% 42% 10% 41% 34% 25%
25–28 July 2019 Newspoll[39] YouGov IVR/Online 48% 31% 21% 51% 36% 13% 39% 36% 25%
17–21 July 2019 Essential[40] Essential Online 44% 26% 30% 48% 34% 18% 39% 24% 37%
19–23 June 2019 Essential[41] Essential Online 43% 25% 32% 48% 36% 16% 35% 25% 40%

Sub-National polling

NSW
Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[42] 472-1905 42% 36% 11% 2% 9% 50% 50%
7–8 December 2019 Newspoll[43] 930-1472 42% 35% 10% 2% 12% 51% 49%
18 May 2019 election 42.54% 34.56% 8.71% 1.31% 12.88% 51.78% 48.22%

VIC
Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[42] 472-1905 39% 40% 13% 1% 7% 45% 55%
7–8 December 2019 Newspoll[43] 930-1472 40% 38% 12% 1% 11% 47% 53%
18 May 2019 election 38.58% 36.86% 11.89% 0.95% 11.72% 46.86% 53.14%

QLD
Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[42] 472-1905 42% 28% 13% 11% 6% 56% 44%
7–8 December 2019 Newspoll[43] 930-1472 40% 29% 12% 13% 6% 55% 45%
1 September 2019 YouGov Galaxy 40% 29% 12% 13% 6% 55% 45%
18 May 2019 election 43.70% 26.68% 10.32% 8.86% 10.44% 58.44% 41.56%

SA
Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[42] 472-1905 40% 37% 12% 0% 11% 47% 53%
18 May 2019 election 40.57% 35.38% 9.61% 0.84% 13.60% 49.29% 50.71%

WA
Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[42] 472-1905 44% 31% 12% 9% 4% 55% 45%
18 May 2019 election 43.79% 29.80% 11.62% 5.31% 9.48% 55.55% 44.45%

Government approval rating

Individual polls
Date Firm Right

Direction

 Wrong

Direction

 Can't

Say

 GCR[44] Lead
June 13/14 & 23/24 2020 Roy Morgan 53.5% 29.5% 17% 124 +24%
May 16/17 & 23/24 2020 Roy Morgan 54.5% 29.5% 16% 125 +25%
18–26 April 2020 Roy Morgan[4] 51.5% 27.5% 21% 124 +24%
29 February–8 March 2020 Roy Morgan[4] 37% 47% 16% 90 –10%
22–30 June 2019 Roy Morgan[45] 43.5% 39% 17.5% 104.5 +4.5%

References
  1. "L-NP (50.5%) holds narrow lead over ALP (49.5%) a week before the Eden-Monaro by-election". Roy Morgan Research.
  2. "Newspoll: PM's record approval rating defies bad news". www.theaustralian.com.au. Retrieved 2020-06-07.
  3. Benson, Simon. "Newspoll: Coalition rides wave of support as fears subside". The Australian.
  4. "L-NP (51.5%) now ahead of ALP (48.5%) and Government Confidence soars 34pts in April as Australia faces COVID-19". Roy Morgan Research.
  5. Benson, Simon. "Newspoll: Support for PM soars, but Coalition flatlines". The Australian.
  6. Benson, Simon (15 March 2020). "Newspoll: Record turnaround for Scott Morrison and universal support for wage subsidy". The Australian.
  7. Benson, Simon (15 March 2020). "Scott Morrison backed but voters fearful over economy, health". The Australian.
  8. Benson, Simon (23 February 2020). "Coalition closes gap on Labor, Albanese slides". The Australian.
  9. Biddle, Nicholas (18 February 2020). "Exposure and the impact on attitudes of the 2019-20 bushfires" (PDF). Australian National University. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  10. Benson, Simon (2 February 2020). "Newspoll: Coalition vote gets burnt by fires, rorts". The Australian. Retrieved 2 February 2020.
  11. Benson, Simon (12 January 2020). "Newspoll: Scott Morrison takes a hit in bushfires backlash". The Australian. Retrieved 13 January 2020.
  12. Benson, Simon (8 December 2019). "Newspoll: Coalition on a high but Albanese claws back voter support". The Australian. Retrieved 8 December 2019.
  13. Benson, Simon (24 November 2019). "Newspoll: The Coalition nudges ahead in poll revamp". The Australian. Retrieved 24 November 2019.
  14. White, Campbell (24 November 2019). "Newspoll: Polling changes with the aim of getting it right". The Australian. Retrieved 3 January 2020.
  15. Benson, Simon (10 November 2019). "Newspoll: ALP draws level as drought hits hard". The Australian. Retrieved 10 November 2019.
  16. Benson, Simon (20 October 2018). "Coalition shrugs off critics, keeps ALP at bay". The Australian. Retrieved 22 October 2019.
  17. Benson, Simon. "Newspoll: ALP sheds support but Albanese turns tide". The Australian. Retrieved 29 September 2019.
  18. Benson, Simon. "Slide puts Albanese into negative territory". The Australian. Retrieved 8 September 2019.
  19. Benson, Simon. "Newspoll: Post-poll reality check for Coalition". The Australian. Retrieved 18 August 2019.
  20. Benson, Simon (28 July 2019). "Election 2019: Scott Morrison gets Post election surge as voters swing behind him". The Australian. Retrieved 28 July 2019.
  21. "Essential poll: Scott Morrison's handling of Covid-19 continues to win approval". The Guardian. 2020-06-02. Retrieved 2020-06-07.
  22. "Essential poll: Australians warm to easing of Covid-19 restrictions but are divided on schools". the Guardian. 2020-05-04. Retrieved 2020-05-05.
  23. "Newspoll: Support for PM soars, but Coalition flatlines". The Australian.
  24. Farr, Malcolm (2020-04-06). "Guardian Essential poll: coronavirus response boosts Scott Morrison's approval rating". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2020-04-13.
  25. "Newspoll: Record turnaround for Scott Morrison and universal support for wage subsidy". The Australian.
  26. "Newspoll: Scott Morrison backed but voters fearful over economy, health". The Australian.
  27. "The Essential Report: 11 March 2020" (PDF). Essential Research.
  28. "Newspoll: Coalition closes gap on Labor, Anthony Albanese slides". The Australian.
  29. "The Essential Report: 11 February 2020" (PDF). Essential Research.
  30. "Newspoll: Coalition vote gets burnt by fires, rorts". The Australian.
  31. "The Essential Report: 13 January 2020" (PDF). Essential Research.
  32. editor, Katharine Murphy Political (2019-12-11). "Essential poll: Morrison gets thumbs up from voters but overall disapproval rises" (PDF). The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2019-12-11.CS1 maint: extra text: authors list (link)
  33. editor, Katharine Murphy Political (2019-11-11). "Essential poll: voters divided on PM's plan to crack down on environmental protests". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2019-11-12.CS1 maint: extra text: authors list (link)
  34. "Essential Report 15 October 2019". Essential Vision and The Guardian. 15 October 2019.
  35. "Essential Report 17 September 2019". Essential Vision and The Guardian. 17 September 2019.
  36. "YouGov". YouGov poll the Courier mail. 1 September 2019.
  37. "Essential Report 22 August 2019". Essential Vision and The Guardian. 17–21 July 2019.
  38. "Newspoll 18 August 2019". The Australian. 18 August 2019. Missing or empty |url= (help)
  39. "Newspoll 28 July 2019". The Australian. 25–28 July 2019. Missing or empty |url= (help)
  40. "Essential Report 24 July 2019". Essential Vision and The Guardian. 17–21 July 2019. Missing or empty |url= (help)
  41. "Essential Report 28 June 2019" (PDF). Essential Vision and The Guardian. 19–23 June 2019. Retrieved 4 July 2019.
  42. "Subscribe to The Australian | Newspaper home delivery, website, iPad, iPhone & Android apps". www.theaustralian.com.au. Retrieved 2020-05-28.
  43. Benson, Simon (2019-12-25). "Labor fails to win back the middle and males Newspoll finds". Archived from the original on 2019-12-25. Retrieved 2019-12-28.
  44. GCR is known as the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating which is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is "going in the right direction" and the percentage who say the country is "going in seriously the wrong direction".
  45. "Government Confidence jumps after L-NP win Election". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 2020-05-02.
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