Next Supreme Leader of Iran election

The succession of Ali Khamenei, the current Supreme Leader of Iran, has been considered a taboo in Iran.[1][2] Constitutionally, the Assembly of Experts is tasked to select the next leader, which its fifth and current term was elected in 2016 and is scheduled to preside until 2024.[3]

Supreme Leader of Iran election
TBA
88 Members in the Assembly of Experts
59 votes needed to win
Islamic Republic of Iran
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As of June 2020, no person has been officially declared as the heir to the current leader nor as a nominee, though various sources have wrote on potential candidates.

Constitutional eligibility
Works related to Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran at Wikisource

According to Article 111 of Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, if the incumbent supreme leader dies in office or has been dismissed, the Assembly of Experts should immediately hold a session and select his successor as soon as they can.[3] According to the same article, until the selection is made, a 'Provisional Leadership Council' is mandated to carry out the responsibilities of the supreme leader, which is made up of the incumbent President, the incumbent Chief Justice, and one of clerics of the Guardian Council who is selected by the Expediency Discernment Council.[3]

Alleged plans

In December 2015, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said a committee in the Assembly of Experts "is examining potential candidates to be the next Supreme Leader." He also said the Assembly would be open to choosing "a council of leaders if needed" instead of a single leader.[1]

Ahmad Khatami told press in 2016 that a committee made up of three Assembly members, had given three names the supreme leader "to seek his verdict", but later remarked what he said was "hypothetical" and blamed media for misreporting his words.[4] Mohsen Araki, commented in June 2019 that the committee has drafted a "top secret list of prospective supreme leaders" and will present three names to the Assembly "when it is necessary."[4] Hashem Hashemzadeh Herisi confirmed that such a committee exists, adding that the names on the list will not be disclosed. He also stated that the decisions made by the committee will not be fateful because the next leader must be voted by a majority of all members in the assembly.[4] Prior to that, in February 2019 Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari had categorically dismissed allegations that Raisi and Khatami are considered as candidates for the next leader by the assembly, stating that the question "has never been debated at the assembly".[5]

Speculations about potential successors by commentators

The persons listed in this section are, according to analyses and comments made by various sources, potential candidates (the names are sorted by age):

Mohammad Yazdi Abdollah Javadi-Amoli Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi Hassan Rouhani
88 years, 354 days 87 years, 46 days 86 years, 141 days 71 years, 221 days
[6] [2] [2][3][6][7][8] [3][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] [3][17] [18]
Ebrahim Raisi Sadeq Larijani Mojtaba Khamenei Hassan Khomeini
60 years, 13 days 59 years, 100 days 50 years, 286 days 47 years, 200 days
[3][8][9][10][12][13][14][16][17][18][19][20] [3][6][9][11][13][16][17][18][19]

Also Abbas Vaez Tabasi , Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani , Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi and Ebrahim Amini Were Believed to be The possible Candidates by Media until their Death.

Further reading
  • Nader, Alireza; Bohandy, S. R. (2011). The Next Supreme Leader: Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran (PDF). Santa Monica, California: Rand Corporation. ISBN 9780833051998.
  • Opinion Poll: Who Will Be Iran's Next Leader? (in Persian), BBC Persian, 22 February 2016

References
  1. Sharafedin, Bozorgmehr (21 October 2014), Williams, Alison (ed.), "Iran's possible next Supreme Leader being examined: Rafsanjani", Reuters, retrieved 30 December 2015
  2. Kamali Dehghan, Saeed (31 October 2014), "When the time comes, who will succeed Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?", The Guardian, retrieved 30 December 2015
  3. Golkar, Saeid (Spring 2019), "Iran after Khamenei: Prospects for Political change", Middle East Policy, 26 (1): 75–88, doi:10.1111/mepo.12401
  4. "Is Iran's Next Supreme Leader Already Chosen?", Radio Farda, 18 June 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  5. "Reports And Denials On Succession Planning For Khamenei", Radio Farda, 14 February 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  6. Sharafedin, Bozorgmehr (13 December 2015), "Who will be Iran's next Supreme Leader?", BBC, retrieved 30 December 2015
  7. Bordbar, Behdad (15 July 2015), "Who will be Iran's next supreme leader?", Al-Monitor, retrieved 30 December 2015
  8. Perteghella, Annalisa (18 May 2017), "The "Other" Election: After Khamenei Who Will Succeed?", Italian Institute for International Political Studies, retrieved 29 March 2020
  9. "Predicting the Unpredictable in Iranian Politics", Stratfor, 8 March 2017, retrieved 15 March 2017
  10. Bozorgmehr, Najmeh (23 January 2020), "Iran: the unspoken battle to succeed Ayatollah Khamenei", The Financial Times, retrieved 29 March 2020
  11. Cunningham, Erin; Salim, Mustafa (21 March 2019), "Clues to the identity of Iran's next supreme leader in the back alleys of a holy city", The Washington Post, retrieved 29 March 2020
  12. Dehghanpisheh, Babak (9 May 2017), Graff, Peter (ed.), "Iran Guards look beyond election to next supreme leader", Reuters, retrieved 30 December 2015
  13. Vakil, Sanam; Rassam, Hossein (May–June 2017), "Iran's Next Supreme Leader: The Islamic Republic After Khamenei", Foreign Affairs, retrieved 30 December 2015CS1 maint: date format (link)
  14. MacMillan, Arthur (10 February 2019), "Explainer: How Iran will pick its next supreme leader", The National, retrieved 30 December 2015
  15. Samadi, Mona (11 February 2020), "As Iran heads to the polls, could Rouhani be facing impeachment?", Middle East Institute, retrieved 30 December 2015
  16. Abdo, Geneive (4 February 2019), "Iran's Battle Over Khamenei's Successor is Just Getting Started", Center for the National Interest, retrieved 30 December 2015
  17. Ganji, Akbar (4 August 2017), "Khamenei's New Potential Hard-line Successor", Radio Farda, retrieved 30 December 2015
  18. Funes, Rossina; Gladin, Maeve (24 May 2019), "Khamenei is turning 80: Who will be next Iran's Supreme Leader?", University of Navarra, retrieved 29 March 2020
  19. "Analysis: Quest to find Iran's next Supreme Leader", BBC Monitoring, 5 December 2018, retrieved 29 March 2020
  20. Bob, Yonah Jeremy (8 August 2019), "Has Ebrahim Raisi been tagged as Iran's next Supreme Leader?", The Jerusalem Post, retrieved 29 March 2020
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