Matt Singh

Matt Singh is an election and opinion polling analyst and founder of the website Number Cruncher Politics, based in London. Singh rose to prominence in mid-2015[1][2][3][4] for his analysis[5] which correctly predicted the opinion polling failure and Conservative victory at the 2015 UK general election.

Matt Singh
Singh speaking at the University of Exeter in 2016

In an interview with Bloomberg Television during the Labour Party leadership contest in August 2015, Singh dismissed suggestions that polls were overstating support for eventual winner Jeremy Corbyn and suggested that they could even be understating it.[6] In the event, Corbyn polled 59.5% of the vote, compared with the final YouGov poll of 57%.

In December 2015 it was reported that Singh was preparing forecasts for the 2016 local, Welsh and Scottish elections, and the UK's EU referendum, and had been assisting the British Polling Council with its official investigation.[7]

Singh has written for The Times,[8] the New Statesman,[9] Bloomberg View,[10] and the Huffington Post.[11] In 2017, he wrote a column for The Financial Times entitled "The Election Analyst",[12] which included commentary on possible outcomes of the 2017 UK general election. Singh was unable to repeat his success of 2015, having suggested that the polls were again underestimating the Conservatives and that the party was likely to increase its majority.[13] He acknowledged this "proved some way off the mark",[14] as the Conservatives lost seats overall and the election resulted in a hung parliament.

Banking career

Singh started work for Barclays Capital as an interest rate trader in 2005.[15] He originally worked in UK Gilt trading and later Scandinavian interest rate swaps. He was noted for his instinct in trading against news events.

References
  1. "Spin doctor stuck to a simple message and ruthless tactics", The Times, 9 May 2015
  2. "I am glad the opinion polls got it wrong because it means we’re not robots", The Independent, 12 May 2015
  3. "The blogger who beat the British political pollsters", Sydney Morning Herald, 31 July 2015
  4. "Was anyone right about the pre-election polls?", Understanding Uncertainty (University of Cambridge Statistical Laboratory), 15 May 2015
  5. "Is there a shy Tory factor in 2015?", Number Cruncher Politics, 6 May 2015
  6. "Matt Singh on Bloomberg TV’s The Pulse", Bloomberg TV interview, 14 August 2015
  7. "Voter samples flawed in UK opinion polls, says ex-Barclays trader" Financial Times, 14 December 2015
  8. "Matt Singh". Times Red Box. Retrieved 1 January 2016.
  9. "Matt Singh". New Statesman. Retrieved 1 January 2016.
  10. "Matt Singh". Bloomberg View. Retrieved 1 January 2016.
  11. "Matt Singh". Huffington Post. Retrieved 1 January 2016.
  12. "Matt Singh". Financial Times. Retrieved 8 January 2018.
  13. "Theresa May's lead has dipped but is stronger than polls suggest", Financial Times, 7 June 2017
  14. "Why almost all the UK election predictions were wrong", Financial Times, 14 June 2017
  15. "The Blogger Who Beat the British Political Pollsters", Bloomberg Business, 31 July 2015
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